The Time Has Come to Place Byron Buxton on the Injured List

[Nick Nelson]

The Twins and Byron Buxton had a strategy: They would keep the banged-up star away from yet another trip to the injured list by feeding him a steady regimen of rest. 

One can argue the merits of this plan up until now. But as a roster crunch ensues and his performance continues to suffer, this feels like the right time to give Buck a break.

Last week, the Twins played games on all seven days and Buxton was out of the starting lineup for three of them. This included two days off in a three-day span (Monday and Wednesday), and Sunday ahead of an off day. Granted, there are mitigating circumstances to account for – he played both ends of a doubleheader on Tuesday, and the team was wrapping an exhausting stretch on Sunday – but they're clearly sticking to their plan of plentiful respites.

The plan is working, to an extent: Buxton has avoided the injured list through two months. That's a big victory in and of itself. But he's also doing little to contribute right now, and hamstringing the roster by so frequently being a healthy(ish) scratch.

Back in mid-May, when many were debating over the team's handling of Buxton and his frequency of rest days, I tweeted my point-of-view on the matter: If anything, the Twins weren't being cautious enough. When your most important player is wincing through knee and hip ailments, the safe bet is simply to place him on the shelf for a while to heal.

Since the date of that tweet (May 16th), Buxton has slashed .155/.254/.241 with one home run and three RBIs. After producing a staggering 1.5 Wins Above Replacement in his first month's worth of games, his WAR over the past month sits at 0.0 – a dead-on replacement level player. Those words feel extremely weird to even type out in connection with Buxton.

Slumps happen in baseball. That's the nature of the game. When you go on a tear like Buxton did to open the season, a corresponding downswing is to be expected. Moreover, his underlying metrics haven't taken a worrisome nosedive or anything. I'm not suggesting Buxton is unplayable right now or that there's a dire need to keep him out of the lineup.

At the same time, it's impossible not to believe his physical state is negatively affecting his play. The sheer magnitude of his slump, along with the occasional grimace and gingerly step, make clear that he's hampered. When asked a couple weeks ago whether his knee injury was improving, Buxton offered a tepid "no comment." He also, unsurprisingly, expressed a desire to stay off the IL.

Since then his numbers have improved a bit – highlighted by Friday night's game, which featured a double and a homer. But he still doesn't look right. He's still taking as much time off as ever. And the Twins are facing some tough roster decisions ahead.

Max Kepler will be activated when the Twins return home to open a three-game series against the Yankees. It sounds like Carlos Correa will be activated soon after. Okay, easy enough to make room for those two guys – simply send down Mark Contreras and Jermaine Palacios, who were called up specifically to replace them. 

But what about making room for Alex Kirilloff? He has found his swing once again in Triple-A, where he's slashing a ridiculous .387/.477/.693 since being optioned in mid-May. Crucially, the power has resurfaced, with Kirilloff mashing four doubles and five home runs in his past eight games for the Saints to earn International League Player of the Week honors. There is simply no reason to leave him in the minors right now.

But who gets ousted from the position-player ranks to enable such a move? Trevor Larnach, who was originally swapped in for Kirilloff, certainly isn't going anywhere – he's been one of the team's best players since getting called up.

How about Gilberto Celestino? It would make sense logistically, but are you really gonna send down a kid who's batting .350 with an .816 OPS?

Nick Gordon? He's been playing pretty regularly and pretty well, with a .265/.308/.490 slash line in his past 15 games, and sending him down would mean losing him on waivers since he's out of options.

José Miranda? He would've been the obvious candidate a couple of weeks ago but he too has begun to find his stroke, with a .361/.378/.722 slash line dating back to May 20th. His right-handed power feels too important to lose at this moment.

Now, maybe this takes care of itself for the time being, because Kyle Garlick suffered a hamstring pull on Saturday that could lead to him landing on the IL. But I do think that sort of distracts from the point, which is that it would make sense from multiple perspectives to shut Buxton down for a while, sort through the roster crunch, and then bring him back in a couple week. During that span, the crunch figures to work itself out. Maybe Celestino or Miranda start slumping, or Kirilloff's bat doesn't take in the big leagues. Most likely, someone else will get hurt. By the time Buxton comes back, he'll hopefully be healthier, requiring a bit less time off, and ready to get back to mashing.

Buck won't like it, but he seems to be aligned with the Twins on this critical directive: doing whatever it takes to ensure he stays on the field throughout the second half and is able to be there for the team when it matters most.

View full article

[RpR]

If Buxton does not play against the Yankees, the Yankees chance of a sweep increase.

[mikelink45]

Nice thought provoking article.  Buxton since his opening weeks had been a negative.  Half of Buxton's value is in the field, not DH.  And when his bat is not working DH is a negative.  I hate to see him out again, but right now he is not contributing and a random day off is not working.  I do not know the answer, but I agree with your evaluations of Gordon, Celestino, Larnach and Garlick.  Not sure where Kiriloff plays - 1B was his until Miranda and Arraez took over.  DH is more open since Sanchez looks to become the regular C.  But none of those moves helps get the potential Buxton magic replaced. 

[LA VIkes Fan]

I tend to agree. His knee is robbing him of the three things that make them so special, his speed, defense, and power. It's an unusual combination and it requires a good base to pull off. He just doesn't have that base now to either run or form the solid back side while swinging.

I'm not sure though that putting Buxton on the IL makes room for Kirilloff though. Assumedly, Celestino would have to play centerfield on a daily basis and you still have the logjam at !B, LF and DH if you bring up Kirilloff.  Maybe that frees up a few more DH at bats for him but that's about it. I think the real choice here is between Larnach and Kirilloff, one up and one down, losing Garlick, demoting Miranda, or exposing Gordon so both Larnach and Kirilloff off can be on the team. Before the season I would've said that's an easy choice, simply lose Garlick. But with the way he has hit LH pitching this year, it's hard to not keep him around. Three weeks ago I would've said that's an easy choice, demote Miranda, and then Miranda turned into one of our best hitters over the last three weeks. The bottom line may be that Kirilloff failed to perform when given his opportunity and he will simply have to wait until someone gets hurt or goes into a prolonged slump before he gets another.

[Doctor Gast]

With Celestino & Gordon playing so well offensively & defensively, we can consider giving Buxton a time on the IL (which was a far cry prior years). The best time to consider this was when we played poorer KC & DET teams and not now when we coming against #1 NYY. Yet if he's only playing 75 % even against NYY it might still be wise to put him on the IL for his & the teams sake.

[rwilfong86]

He's been playing better, let's see how he does against the NYY then make the decision. 

[CRF]

I don't know if going IL is the answer or not. Maybe. I guess it depends how hurt he actually is, and I don't think we know. For sure I'd drop him down to the bottom of the order. He's not a lead off hitter anyway. Arraez has to stay as the lead off hitter, and Rocco has to leave him there. When Buxton regains his stroke, he should be the #2 or #3 hitter, not lead off. 

[Seansy]

I think it probably should of happened a while ago and once other players come back from the IL Buck should be added on it too.

[bighat]

Putting Buxton on the IL so that the Twins can give Alex Kirilloff more playing time is one of the most ridiculous suggestions I've heard all season.

Alex had his chance, he played terribly. He didn't just struggle, he was beyond awful and beyond overmatched.  And now he's in the back of the line where he belongs. I'm glad he's mashing Omaha Storm Chasers pitching, but at this point he's going to have to wait until a real injury occurs in order to get another chance.

50% of Byron Buxton is light years better than 100% of Alex Kirilloff. Enough of this nonsense.

[AceWrigley]

Ya know, I don't want to agree but darn it Nick, it makes a lot of sense. The adjustments you make at the plate with a hip and knee barking at you can really mess with your swing, and sometimes those adjustments are hard to overcome. Maybe a IL respite is just the thing. We have the meat.

[h2oface]

As long as Celestino is raking, there is no better time to do IL Buxton and get healed than now.

Ever since he slapped the dirt after his slide into second that tweaked his knee......... he is not Buxton.

See how he does against NY, first.

Can you but Baldelli on the IL for bullpen decisions?

[LastOnePicked]

1 hour ago, RpR said:

If Buxton does not play against the Yankees, the Yankees chance of a sweep increase.

If Buxton isn't healthy, the chances are about the same. But if you can maybe swap in a hot Kirilloff bat, the impact might even swing towards the positive.

The trouble is, I'm not even sure what 10 days does for a knee. Plus, the mental side of the game is fundamentally important, too, and Buxton doesn't want an IL stint - he wants to play. Could Baldelli and Correa talk him into it?

Because I think Nick might be right. And with the usual Yankees/Target Field voodoo, might not be the worst thing in the world for him to miss this series.

[Tim]

If they were going to put him on the IL it would have happened before the trip to Toronto.

He's hitting .292 / .393 / .458 in his last 7 games so he's far from slumping anymore. 

Garlick goes to IL.

 

[Game7-91]

8 minutes ago, AceWrigley said:

Maybe a IL respite is just the thing. We have the meat.

And the potato's and gravy! 

Buck would benefit from some down time. Twins will benefit giving more rep's to the young guns.

The problem points to the surprising development of these position players,  and others in the wings. A good problem to have. Let's find out what we have in these guys. No one is going to run away with this division. 

Also agree on Kiriloff comments here. Guys currently on mlb roster (positional) deserve a chance to keep playing. Roll with them, give Buck a rest, and hope he comes back strong, and able to go more than 3 weeks between injuries.

 

[rwilfong86]

11 minutes ago, Tim said:

If they were going to put him on the IL it would have happened before the trip to Toronto.

He's hitting .292 / .393 / .458 in his last 7 games so he's far from slumping anymore. 

Garlick goes to IL.

 

Agree, he's actually started playing better so IMO I think we let him start the series with NY and go from there.

[Cap'n Piranha]

If only the Twins had done this 6 weeks ago, Buxton could theoretically have been back at full strength now, as opposed to still not being at full strength.

[howeda7]

The time to IL him was about 2 weeks ago. Now he's finally coming around at the plate and you want to do it? No.

[rwilfong86]

5 minutes ago, howeda7 said:

The time to IL him was about 2 weeks ago. Now he's finally coming around at the plate and you want to do it? No.

Agree. 

[chinmusic]

There used to be such a dramatic difference in the Twins record when Buxton was playing or not.

That is no longer the case. And yet, I lean towards NOT putting him on the IL.  Only he, and presumably management, know his actual condition. I certainly don't. I'll admit, I was wincing with the endless popups. I agree, however, with the poster who wants to see how he fares vs Yankees. He HAS picked it up a bit lately, so maybe it's not the time to quell (hopefully) building momentum.

[bean5302]

I get the same sense of entitlement in this article as the "What's wrong with Jorge Polanco" thread. The acknowledgement the metrics don't show a problem and that slumps happen, but no actual acceptance of the fact sometimes luck gives you slumps. There is an expectation Buxton either hits a home run or steals all the bases consecutively after inevitably getting on base because he deserves a 1.000 OBP around here. Scarcely anybody had a word to say about how Buxton was too injured to play in the 10 games following the slide where he was hitting .317/.391/.805 for an OPS 1.196.

How bad is Buxton's knee? Well, his sprint speed shows a significant, but not crazy, drop off this year, from 30.0 ft/sec to 29.1 ft/sec, but Buxton is getting older and hitting balls very hard. Despite his barrel rate being down a little, his average exit velocity is tied for a career best.

Buxton probably isn't 100% (he doesn't look 100% watching him in person at games), but he's seeing and hitting the ball well and if his injury starts getting worse, I'd expect the Twins to move him to the IL. 

 

[The Mad King]

I agree whole heartedley

[Whitey333]

Great article as usual Nick.  Buxton, I don't know.  When he's not on il and not playing it wastes a bench spot.  That ties Baldellis hands. Although he's been a little better lately he hasn't been the same Byron for awhile.  Or maybe he has.  I mean after all he is injured again.  He's not really contributing.  You can't really count on him again.  We should be used to that.  It seems it's worse this time around in that he's not playing well.  Plus they play him sporadically.  I think if he's still hurting after the Yankee series he should go on il.

[Rosterman]

You want to say they aren't doing it because of incentives, but his chances of being MVP right now is slim to none.

He could get a $500,000 bonus if he hits 500 plate appearances, which he can more easily do in 100 games or so if he bats leadoff. But at some point, is it worth it?

Re: Kirilloff. At some point the Twins will have the consistent 13th batter/bench guy. I wouldn't argue with bringing up Kirilloff if you want him to play first. You have to hope that Sanchez can be closer to the fulltime catcher, and you can shuffle Arraez into DH, the game at third, and one or games at 1B with Kiriloff spelling a agme in left and batting DH himself. Having to make the DH a Buxton slot fpr even half-time screws this up.

I'm sorry. I like Miranda, but send him to St. Paul to keep working and play him at third. He is the prime candidate for recall if something happens to Gio. Maybe shuffle him over to first base 2-3 times out of ten games, just top keep him in that mix.

And keeping Garlick because he bats...right? Okay if he is the fourth outfielder. Not okay if he is the fifth...unless he is that 26th player.

So confusing as to how the Twins are in first place. So confusing.

[PatPfund]

1 hour ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

If only the Twins had done this 6 weeks ago, Buxton could theoretically have been back at full strength now, as opposed to still not being at full strength.

Exactly. But they didn't. Saddest thing of all would be to look back in a month, and say 'if only the Twins had put Buxton on IL in early June he would be healthy now.'

Get him steady treatment for the knee, Call up Kirilloff, use an actual HITTER in the DH slot (Arraez, Alex, Larnach, not the catcher hitting a buck and change), and forget 'trying him against the Yankees'. He's not going to get healthy playing (even with tons of time off) or he would have done it by now. (And the Twins just beat the hottest team in baseball starting their best pitcher without so much as an at-bat from Byron.)

Alternative, or longer term plan, you send Miranda down to work on his defense at 1B (where he has hurt us badly a few times) just as you sent Lewis down to work on his 'other position' D. Along with the positive statement you want him back soon.

[USAFChief]

Do we know that an IL stint will fix the knee? 

 

If it will, then IL him immediately. He's not the same player.

 

If it won't, and I don't think it will or they'd have done it already, then we're getting the 100 games of Buxton they told us we were getting, and we're not getting 100 games of a superstar. 

[Game7-91]

1 hour ago, Rosterman said:

So confusing as to how the Twins are in first place. So confusing.

This is succinctly putting it out there: how can this be?

I look at it this way: It's a default position. Twins are in 1st because no other team in the division is. Somebody has to be, so it is the Twins, for now.

They've taken advantage (so far) of the suckfest that is the AL Central, playing well in part but also benefiting from sad-sack level of play within division.

So I dont carry great confidence in Twins chances of making noise if they do make playoffs. Oh and Eighteen buttresses this reality-based skepticism, and why that skepticism extends to moving any of our top tier prospects for rentals.

We need to know who can play at mlb level, so bring the kids in, and if some contender develops a need for Correa, and it makes sense as in obtaining controllable, quality pitching depth, then be bold, creative, and make a move that strengthens the emerging core, and makes room for them to play. Talking about you Royce Lewis. 

[Nick Nelson]

20 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Do we know that an IL stint will fix the knee? 

How would we know until giving it a try? Playing regularly doesn't seem to be helping. It stands to reason that two weeks off of his legs, getting steady treatment, will be helpful to some extent. Only one way to find out how much.

[Nick Nelson]

2 hours ago, howeda7 said:

The time to IL him was about 2 weeks ago. Now he's finally coming around at the plate and you want to do it? No.

What is this idea of him "coming around at the plate" based on? One good game on Friday night? Outside of that he's got five singles and one double in 30 at-bats since snapping the 0-fer streak, and zero multi-hit games in the past month. 

[Cap'n Piranha]

39 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Do we know that an IL stint will fix the knee? 

 

If it will, then IL him immediately. He's not the same player.

 

If it won't, and I don't think it will or they'd have done it already, then we're getting the 100 games of Buxton they told us we were getting, and we're not getting 100 games of a superstar. 

I don't know if an IL stint will fix it.

 

But I do know that 7 weeks of playing in only half the games on the schedule sure didn't.

[Chachi]

1 hour ago, Rosterman said:

You want to say they aren't doing it because of incentives, but his chances of being MVP right now is slim to none.

He could get a $500,000 bonus if he hits 500 plate appearances, which he can more easily do in 100 games or so if he bats leadoff. But at some point, is it worth it?

Re: Kirilloff. At some point the Twins will have the consistent 13th batter/bench guy. I wouldn't argue with bringing up Kirilloff if you want him to play first. You have to hope that Sanchez can be closer to the fulltime catcher, and you can shuffle Arraez into DH, the game at third, and one or games at 1B with Kiriloff spelling a agme in left and batting DH himself. Having to make the DH a Buxton slot fpr even half-time screws this up.

I'm sorry. I like Miranda, but send him to St. Paul to keep working and play him at third. He is the prime candidate for recall if something happens to Gio. Maybe shuffle him over to first base 2-3 times out of ten games, just top keep him in that mix.

And keeping Garlick because he bats...right? Okay if he is the fourth outfielder. Not okay if he is the fifth...unless he is that 26th player.

So confusing as to how the Twins are in first place. So confusing.

Agree that it is difficult to ignore that the contact incentives that did seem well aligned for both the team and player’s best interests have created, at the very least, a reason to consider what unintended consequences managing to those playing time thresholds invites.