Heroes of the Twins First Third

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins are now through the first third of their 2022 Major League Baseball season. There’s been ups and downs, but ultimately this club is leading the AL Central division and working to suggest that many national expectations of them were too low.

 

There’s been no shortage of situations that Rocco Baldelli and the front office have had to deal with. Between injury, both short and long term, and recent restrictions, the roster has largely remained in flux. While there’s been contributors from some less than expected names, there’s also been guys performing right to where you would hope they’d be.

Based on fWAR, here are the Twins three leaders from the first third of the season:

Trevor Larnach 1.2 fWAR

Coming into the season there was hope that Alex Kirilloff would return healthy and take a step forward as Minnesota’s left fielder and first basemen. That hasn’t been the case thus far, and Trevor Larnach has risen to the occasion. Early signs suggested there was a breakout for the former top prospect, and now it’s worth wondering just how good he can be. Larnach has always scalded the fastball, but he’s been better against offspeed this season and his .796 OPS represents a 134 OPS+.

Larnach did start slow in the results column, but his process has been strong from the jump. He’s starting to see the ball leave the yard and was arguably Minnesota’s best hitter before landing on the injured list with a groin injury. He’s slumped a bit since returning, but the defense has been a pleasant surprise to his game as well. Both from an OAA (outs above average) and outfield assist perspective, he’s been among the most impressive corner outfielders in the game.

Max Kepler 1.3 fWAR

Playing on the opposite corner of Larnach for most of the season, Kepler is figuring out how to do damage with the deadened baseball. For a guy who has been averse to lifting the leather for so long, he’s seeing results not evident since he earned MVP votes in 2019. Kepler owns a .786 OPS which checks in just behind Larnach in the OPS+ category, registering 133.

Minnesota has always known they could count on Kepler in the outfield, and that’s remained a constant this season. Although left and center have seen rotating faces at times, Kepler has been a mainstay and ultimately a pillar of health. His six home runs through 47 games don’t put him on pace to equal the 36 that went out during the Bomba Squad season, but there’s no reason he shouldn’t be in the 20’s by the time the dust settles.

Byron Buxton 1.5 fWAR

Minnesota paid the man this offseason, and it’s immediately paid dividends. Very few people in baseball can provide the value Buxton does on a per game basis, and he was again a front running MVP candidate out of the gate. The OPS has dropped down to .802 after a significant slump, but the strong start still has him owning an .833 OPS+ with 12 homers on the year. He shouldn’t have any problem setting a new career high in terms of big flies.

As has been the case throughout his career, Buxton has seen injury impact his performance. He’s playing through knee tendonitis and not being utilized on a daily basis. Despite the management program, it’s an understandable plan with focus being emphasized on having the Twins best talent in the Postseason. A game changer in every aspect of the word, Buxton can be the reason Minnesota wins a series in October this year.

The next highest fWAR this season thus far comes from Opening Day starting pitcher Joe Ryan. He’s helped to validate the belief from the front office this offseason, which has been incredible to see. Although his dominance is noteworthy, it may be fair to argue the next closest hero has been the emergence of Devin Smeltzer. Thrust into the rotation as the Twins saw options dwindle, he’s taken the ball and been incredibly consistent while giving Minnesota good outings and looking better than he ever has at any point in his career.

What are your thoughts? Who would you have as the Twins MVP through the first third of the season? Share your comments below!

 

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[Whitey333]

To me the twins mvp thus far is luis Arraez. He leads the world in hitting, or so it seems. He adjusts to playing different positions.  Comes up with key hits as most teams can't defend him as he sprays the ball all over.  He needs to be in the lineup more often.  Yes that includes against left handed starters. Kepler does it and has done pretty well.  To develop Arraez fully he needs to be exposed more to left handers or how else will he learn to hit them.  My runner-up MVP is Jorge Polanco.  He's out there playing most of the time even through minor injuries.  Unlike some of his teammates that are out all the time or so it seems.  At this point there is no way Buxton can be considered a team MVP as he is again another year as a part time player.  Correa?  He's been good but not great.  Definitely not producing nor playing like a superstar should be expected.

[rwilfong86]

5 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

To me the twins mvp thus far is luis Arraez. He leads the world in hitting, or so it seems. He adjusts to playing different positions.  Comes up with key hits as most teams can't defend him as he sprays the ball all over.  He needs to be in the lineup more often.  Yes that includes against left handed starters. Kepler does it and has done pretty well.  To develop Arraez fully he needs to be exposed more to left handers or how else will he learn to hit them.  My runner-up MVP is Jorge Polanco.  He's out there playing most of the time even through minor injuries.  Unlike some of his teammates that are out all the time or so it seems.  At this point there is no way Buxton can be considered a team MVP as he is again another year as a part time player.  Correa?  He's been good but not great.  Definitely not producing nor playing like a superstar should be expected.

Agree with you, Arraez needs to be in the lineup everyday. Polanco's numbers have been down and hasn't been sharp defensively, Gio has been great and should be in the conversation.

[mikelink45]

Luis Arraez 1.5 WAR - BR has beeen the spark plug of the lineup.  At this point he is my MVP -  versatility and bat have really shown this year.

Duran with a 0.9 WAR as a RP is great - so I expand your 4 to 6.  

Nice to see Larnach doing so well that we have a problem with where to put Kirilloff. 

[arby58]

1 minute ago, mikelink45 said:

Luis Arraez 1.5 WAR - BR has beeen the spark plug of the lineup.  At this point he is my MVP -  versatility and bat have really shown this year.

Duran with a 0.9 WAR as a RP is great - so I expand your 4 to 6.  

Nice to see Larnach doing so well that we have a problem with where to put Kirilloff. 

I watched two games in Des Moines this week, and Kirilloff was scalding the ball - three HRs in those two games, one a rocket that damaged the facing above the left field boxes. If nothing else, Kirilloff can split time as the DH with Sanchez.

[Blyleven2011]

Where is the respect for the arreaz ( I nicknamed him major leaguer in his first season ) , It usually takes 3 seasons to evaluate what kind of player they are going to be ,,,,,

I saw what kind of player he was in his first year ( bats like gwynn and hits like carew  )  , he is a outstanding hitter even if he is considered a singles hitters ...

He adapts where played even if some think his defense is a liability  , firstbase he has filled in admirably  , can play 2nd or 3rd , outfield is  maybe a stretch but he'll play were he is told ...

Major leaguer  ( arreaz ) is a possible allstar this year ,,,, he ignites the top of the order getting things started and continues throughout the game ,,,  he's contending for a batting title  through the first third of the season  ...

Love watching this player  play the game he so much loves ....

Maybe he should be the hitting coach and draw 2 pay checks ...

Yes there are others I like on the  team as well but he is our spark plug ... 

 

[Dave The Dastardly]

Arraez hands down.

Ryan second.

 Kepler third.

Larnach fourth.

[LastOnePicked]

What's fun about this season is that you could make the case for a pretty long list of guys who have stepped up in a big way and filled roles exactly as needed - guys like Joe Smith, Jhon Duran, Griffin Jax, Jharel Cotton and Gilberto Celestino, among others. Not necessarily team MVPs, but fighters who have given this team a boost nearly every time they're put on the field. I love that about this 2022 team.

[PatPfund]

I've certainly had my issues with them in the past, but my clear heroes of the first third are the Falvines. After the utter failure of last year's team, they shook things up in ways that bruised a lot of fans, shipping some faves in Berrios (mid-year 2021), Garver, and Rogers (and Rortvedt, who I liked but who others clearly adore!), and an expensive pill (JD). You can argue details in each deal (or deals since so many overlapped), but this is a new team with a new attitude and new leaders mixing veterans (including new ones with playoff success) with young talent.

It is also a team with far greater depth; depth that has been critical lately in the wake of waves of injuries. Lewis, Miranda, Palacios, Smeltzer, Moran, Cotton, and even Godoy have come up and made key contributions while also enhancing themselves as future Twins or possibly trade chips. 

My other hero is David Freakin' Popkins. The Twins have looked pathetic at the plate that past couple of years, but the new hitting coach actually has them using the whole field, and in particular seems to have resurrected Max Kepler from the grave. Keep it up dude!

[rwilfong86]

32 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

What's fun about this season is that you could make the case for a pretty long list of guys who have stepped up in a big way and filled roles exactly as needed - guys like Joe Smith, Jhon Duran, Griffin Jax, Jharel Cotton and Gilberto Celestino, among others. Not necessarily team MVPs, but fighters who have given this team a boost nearly every time they're put on the field. I love that about this 2022 team.

It seems like every day there is a new guy who comes up big, whether with a clutch hit or shutting down the opponents lineup. 

[rwilfong86]

1 hour ago, Dave The Dastardly said:

Arraez hands down.

Ryan second.

 Kepler third.

Larnach fourth.

[shabbos1]

No mention of Arraez whatsoever is, as some might say, kooky talk.

[Doctor Gast]

I vote for Buxton he excels in everything. I like Arraez, Larnach, Kepler, Correa, Ryan and many of the secondary playere have stepped up  but Buxton  is a game changer,

[TwinsAce]

Correa might not be the MVP from the first third of the season, but I think his impact was pretty significant.  Even though his numbers were down, he didn't fail on defense.  Even though the team was losing, he seemed to have a good attitude and belief in the team.

I wonder if this team would have turned things around so quickly without Correa on the team...Definitely a different clubhouse feel this year it seems.

[puckstopper1]

The first 3rd MVP is definitely Arraez.  In addition to his bat, although he is no gold glover, he filled a HUGE hole at 1B.

 

[Fatbat]

So kind of you to leave the #1 mvp guy off the list so we could all pontificate. Luis Arraez for MVP??

[puckstopper1]

Although not the MVP, Sanchez has performed better than expected.  He has been healthy/available which is important.  His bat is back to career averages and his defense - while he will never be confused for Joe Mauer - is better than advertised.

[jmlease1]

It's an interestion question as to whom to name. I think Arraez & Buxton need to be in there: Buxton started hot and his bat always seems to put a charge into the game when he's on, and his D is so consistently great. Arraez has turned into the toughest out in the baseball (against RHP, at least; while the sample is small he's not a great hitter against lefties. it's ok.)

Ryan deserves a mention because he's been so consistently good as a starter where we needed someone to step up; I'm not going to downgrade him for some recent missed time. Correa is the same for me: sure he started a little slow at the plate (as did most of the league), but his D has been awesome and he was really starting to get rolling before having to miss time recently. He was one of the players that was making you sit up and take notice.

Kepler probably gets the 5th slot for me because he's played more, over Larnach...I don't think people expected this improvement at the plate any longer. We thought this was who he was, and it turns out he's still able to make adjustments.

maybe Sonny Gray? He's been really good for us and looks like a playoff starter every time he goes out there. Let's hope he's able to go out there late in the season.

[JustWinBaby]

Luis Arraez is my #1 hero this season.  His WAR is currently 1.5 and he's a top contender for the AL batting title.  His career OBP against RHP is .396 and against LHP is .355.  Arraez draws walks against left-handed pitchers extremely frequently, he should be in the starting lineup virtually every day.  Rocco should only rest Arraez against select left-handers.

The Twins have a bunch of heroes on their pitching staff.  Their team ERA is currently ranked 4th in the AL and 1st in the AL Central division.

 

[USAFChief]

I'd go Arraez.

Probably Buxton 2nd due to his April. He was all world for almost a month.

Maybe Kepler 3rd. 

[Mark G]

9 hours ago, JustWinBaby said:

Luis Arraez is my #1 hero this season.  His WAR is currently 1.5 and he's a top contender for the AL batting title.  His career OBP against RHP is .396 and against LHP is .355.  Arraez draws walks against left-handed pitchers extremely frequently, he should be in the starting lineup virtually every day.  Rocco should only rest Arraez against select left-handers.

The Twins have a bunch of heroes on their pitching staff.  Their team ERA is currently ranked 4th in the AL and 1st in the AL Central division.

 

Probably because they have pitched against the rest of the Central Division.