Minor League Report (6/5): Steer, Kirilloff, Hamilton Power Home Run Record for Saints

[Cap'n Piranha]

1 hour ago, bunsen82 said:

Below is Spencer Steer Stats.  There is no hint of a home run hitter prior to 2021.  Yes he missed 2020 where we may have started to see the progress but he got stronger,  probably changed his swing a bit and now he is a quality Power bat.  The 2018 and 2019 draft classes are the ones that are going to need to be protected this winter prior to rule 5 draft based upon their age.  So Spencer Steer will need to be put on the 40 man.   Austin Martin was drafted in 2020.  The earliest would be next winter prior to the 2024 season.  Honestly I think Martin takes off this summer and all your moaning is moot.  Has he slightly underperformed,  slightly but it hasn't drastically changed his stock.  He will still be a top 3 prospect on any Twins prospect list.  He may drop out of top 100 unless the rest of his year is outstanding.  There is no reason to be sweating bullets over his value after 2 months of play.   Let the Twins continue to work with him and we will see what the results are the rest of this year and next year.  

Year	Age	AgeDif	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB
2017	19	-1.2	Oregon	P12	NCAA		54	230	191	23	50	12	3	2	35	4	2	18	24	.262	.357	.387	.744	74	6	13	3	5
2018	20	-0.3	Oregon	P12	NCAA		53	233	189	30	52	11	1	4	37	4	3	24	31	.275	.381	.407	.788	77	3	12	2	6
2018	20	0.0	Orleans	CCBL	Smr		36	149	135	20	41	9	0	5	25	3	0	7	19	.304	.351	.482	.833	65		4	1	2	0
2019	21	0.5	Oregon	P12	NCAA		56	261	215	40	75	13	1	6	57	6	2	30	33	.349	.456	.502	.958	108	1	14	0	2
2019	21		2 Teams	2 Lgs	A-Rk	MIN	64	296	250	40	70	18	3	4	33	5	2	34	33	.280	.385	.424	.809	106	3	10	0	2	0
2019	21	-0.3	Cedar Rapids	MIDW	A	MIN	44	201	173	26	45	12	2	2	20	5	1	19	28	.260	.358	.387	.746	67	2	8	0	1	0
2019	21	0.5	Elizabethton	APPY	Rk	MIN	20	95	77	14	25	6	1	2	13	0	1	15	5	.325	.442	.507	.949	39	1	2	0	1	0
2021	23		2 Teams	2 Lgs	AA-A+	MIN	110	488	417	82	106	18	3	24	66	8	4	55	105	.254	.348	.484	.833	202	6	9	0	7	1
2021	23	-1.1	Wichita	AACN	AA	MIN	65	280	249	45	60	11	2	14	42	4	0	20	73	.241	.304	.470	.774	117	5	5	0	6	1
2021	23	0.5	Cedar Rapids	HAC	A+	MIN	45	208	168	37	46	7	1	10	24	4	4	35	32	.274	.409	.506	.915	85	1	4	0	1	0
2022	24		2 Teams	2 Lgs	AA-AAA	MIN	48	219	192	40	56	16	1	14	45	1	3	20	34	.292	.374	.604	.979	116	3	6	0	1	1
2022	24	-2.5	St. Paul	IL	AAA	MIN	13	63	55	13	14	3	0	6	15	0	0	6	11	.255	.349	.636	.986	35	2	2	0	0	1
2022	24	-0.2	Wichita	TL	AA	MIN	35	156	137	27	42	13	1	8	30	1	3	14	23	.307	.385	.591	.976	81	1	4	0	1	0

You are correct, Martin has one more non-40 man year.  I got mixed up when I saw a TC designation next year for him on Spotrac, and incorrectly assumed that meant he had to be on the 40 man--my bad.  I hope Martin takes off this summer--it would be awesome if he followed the Royce Lewis 2019 path and went to the AFL and was the best hitter there.  The problem there of course is that Royce Lewis is actually younger than Martin, and had that breakout when he had just turned 20 three months earlier, not five months before turning 24.  And given the trend we're seeing from Martin, thinking he'll improve is based on nothing other than hope.  I would bet big money that if Austin Martin finishes the year at AA with a sub .725 OPS, he will appear on no global top 100 lists next year.

There is plenty of reason to worry about Austin Martin.  Pretending there's not is just head-in-the-sand thinking.

[Cap'n Piranha]

6 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

Average is essentially meaningless for the type of players Arraez and Martin are.   Arraez may get a few more doubles, but Martin makes that up with stolen bases.  .380 OBP players are players that teams build their teams around.  I would be happy if Martin became a bit more of a slap hitter,  right now it appears he is trying to become the power hitter Steer is by having many balls caught at the warning track.  No offense but if pitchers start going after Martin he will be able to tee off.   His bat especially during college has shown that.  My guess is he ends up with 6-8 homeruns this year.  We will see.    

Average is not meaningless.  Average is meaningless if you have power--power hitters can maintain high OBPs in the majors without average, because they'll get walks due to pitchers not wanting to challenge them, and therefore nibbling.  Without power, to maintain a high OBP, a player is going to have to get hits, otherwise pitchers will never throw him balls--why would they, since they know he's unlikely to get a hit, and if he does get a hit, it will be a single which is approximately the same as a walk anyways?

If you think Martin will tee off when pitchers go after him, then how do you explain his strikeouts?  He has 28 in 216 PA this year (for comparison, Arraez has 16 in 188).  Since he takes a lot of walks, he clearly has a good eye right?  So to strikeout that much means he's not an elite contact hitter.  Guys at the MLB level who don't make elite contact, and don't have power, do not have high OBPs--they just don't.  Name one guy in MLB around the 80th percentile for contact rate, but with no power, who still has a high OBP.  I'll wait.

[bunsen82]

8 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Average is not meaningless.  Average is meaningless if you have power--power hitters can maintain high OBPs in the majors without average, because they'll get walks due to pitchers not wanting to challenge them, and therefore nibbling.  Without power, to maintain a high OBP, a player is going to have to get hits, otherwise pitchers will never throw him balls--why would they, since they know he's unlikely to get a hit, and if he does get a hit, it will be a single which is approximately the same as a walk anyways?

If you think Martin will tee off when pitchers go after him, then how do you explain his strikeouts?  He has 28 in 216 PA this year (for comparison, Arraez has 16 in 188).  Since he takes a lot of walks, he clearly has a good eye right?  So to strikeout that much means he's not an elite contact hitter.  Guys at the MLB level who don't make elite contact, and don't have power, do not have high OBPs--they just don't.  Name one guy in MLB around the 80th percentile for contact rate, but with no power, who still has a high OBP.  I'll wait.

You are assuming Martin won't improve his bat,  my baseline is Martin is .300 average hitter.  I think it has underplayed as he is trying to hit more homers.  One of 2 things happens,  the power comes which boosts the average by those outs becoming hits, or he truly adopts the Arreaz method,  essentially ignoring home runs and spraying balls all over the field and continue to get walks as he has an elite eye.  You are willing to give the projection on Steer, but no projection on Martin - take that back you have a very negative projection    lol.   We can all have prospects and players we like.  Honestly I could care less where Martin is ranked,  it comes down to the type of player he can be for the Twins.  I would love to have another Arreaz like player on the team.- even if it is a light version of him.  23 years old is still incredibly young.  

[Cap'n Piranha]

11 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

Its his OBP -  I have always loved players like him and Arreaz.  If his OBP plummets fine,  but if he remains a 380+ OBP player that is a top 20 OBP player every year in the big leagues.  That has immense value especially as a table setter,  and if you can't understand that, I don't know what to say.  You are essentially basing your negative view point on 2 months.   Talk about a small sample size.   You need to let the season play out before you want to trade a player for 50 cents on the dollar or regulate him to a no longer useful prospect.   

Why in the love of all that is holy would we expect him to have a 380+ OBP in MLB when HE CAN'T EVEN DO THAT IN AA?  Of course I understand the value of high OBP, I just don't think Austin Martin is a good bet to have a high OBP.  Martin currently has a .361 OBP in a league where the average OBP is .352, so he's 2.5% better than the average AA Central hitter.  That's it.  In MLB this year the average OBP is .311, so if Martin maintains his gap in performance to the league, he would have a .319 OBP, which would put him 87th in MLB, just behind Tony Kemp.  On average and power, his projected numbers in MLB would be .229 (95.7% of league average) and .329 (84.7% of league average).  That's a slash of .229/.319/.329/.648--that makes Martin, essentially, IKF.  You really think an IKF clone (except with more speed and much less defensive value) should be considered a top prospect? 

You're right that my view is based on 2 months--that just happens to be about 35% of his entire professional career.  2 months is not a small sample size unless you're on the IL at least twice during that stretch.  I just do not understand why this year's performance is just being blithely waved away as not concerning.

[Cap'n Piranha]

1 minute ago, bunsen82 said:

You are assuming Martin won't improve his bat,  my baseline is Martin is .300 average hitter.  I think it has underplayed as he is trying to hit more homers.  One of 2 things happens,  the power comes which boosts the average by those outs becoming hits, or he truly adopts the Arreaz method,  essentially ignoring home runs and spraying balls all over the field and continue to get walks as he has an elite eye.  You are willing to give the projection on Steer, but no projection on Martin - take that back you have a very negative projection    lol.   We can all have prospects and players we like.  Honestly I could care less where Martin is ranked,  it comes down to the type of player he can be for the Twins.  I would love to have another Arreaz like player on the team.- even if it is a light version of him.  23 years old is still incredibly young.  

I'm not assuming he won't improve his bat.  I'm understanding the reality that he did not improve his bat from last year, so you're assuming he will improve his bat, despite all the available evidence indicating otherwise.  Why do you have a .300 AVG baseline for him, when he's literally never done that in his professional career?  If your thesis is that the Twins screwed him up by pushing him to add power, and he just needs to return to the approach he had while in Toronto's system, you have to acknowldge he hit .281 there.  Obviously I would love to have another Arraez player; but there is nothing in Austin Martin's professional career that suggests he is anywhere near the caliber of hitter Luis Arraez is.  You know who is actually more likely to be an Arraez type hitter?  Edouard Julien, who is younger and performing better than Martin at the same level (and in his first go-around at that level to boot).

[bunsen82]

12 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Why in the love of all that is holy would we expect him to have a 380+ OBP in MLB when HE CAN'T EVEN DO THAT IN AA?  Of course I understand the value of high OBP, I just don't think Austin Martin is a good bet to have a high OBP.  Martin currently has a .361 OBP in a league where the average OBP is .352, so he's 2.5% better than the average AA Central hitter.  That's it.  In MLB this year the average OBP is .311, so if Martin maintains his gap in performance to the league, he would have a .319 OBP, which would put him 87th in MLB, just behind Tony Kemp.  On average and power, his projected numbers in MLB would be .229 (95.7% of league average) and .329 (84.7% of league average).  That's a slash of .229/.319/.329/.648--that makes Martin, essentially, IKF.  You really think an IKF clone (except with more speed and much less defensive value) should be considered a top prospect? 

You're right that my view is based on 2 months--that just happens to be about 35% of his entire professional career.  2 months is not a small sample size unless you're on the IL at least twice during that stretch.  I just do not understand why this year's performance is just being blithely waved away as not concerning.

What was his OBP  just over a week and a half ago -   surprise surprise he was at .378.  He has had a few poor games in June so far, OBP of .286 in 5 games.  No offense but in a single game he could revert to the mean if he has a game like Arraez where he gets on base 4-5 times.   Where is the crazy in that.  You remove the small outliers and small sample sizes and things look decent.    

Yes I do think he will improve his bat.  whether by getting stronger, whether the temps warm up and the ball starts to travel better,  I do think he will get back on track.  I am done with this thread as we both have obvious biases.