Trading for starting pitcher

[jorgenswest]

26 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

So, do you want Musgrove / Taillon / Nola for 5 years or Montas for 1 year and 2  I will take the former along with the top prospects like Lewis that I would have needed to trade away.  

I would do the trade now rather than the hope of signing a free agent in the future.

 

[Mike Sixel]

25 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I don't think the team is hot if hot is defined as a legit contender.  Ask me again on July 20th and my answer might be different but at the moment they are not a front-line pitcher away from being a contender.  Montas or Castillo is going to require an elite prospect and another top 10 prospect.  Lewis and Winder for example.  Those teams are going to demand elite prospects at the AA/AAA level or guys like Winder that has already made their debut.  That's short-sighted if you are the twins.  It's also the  exact opposite of what Tampa and Oakland have proven over and over to be effective.  For example trading Samardzjia for Semien and Bassit.

This team is finally in a position to have sustained success.  Next year they have Gray / Ryan / Winder / Maeda / Ober / Smeltzer and Paddock by mid-season.  Add one of Nola / Musgrove / Rodon / Syndergaard / Taillon / Perez and they are great shape for several years.  You are the guy that talks about locking down long-term pitching assets and rightfully so.  It is essential in a mid-market to retain guys like Lewis / Winder if a mid-market team is to afford front-line free agent SP and put together a roster with the depth to be a true contender.   So, do you want Musgrove / Taillon / Nola for 5 years or Montas for 1 year and 2  I will take the former along with the top prospects like Lewis that I would have needed to trade away.  

Pretty big assumption they'll spend big on free agent pitching, when they have completely shown they won't so far. I'd be shocked if they did so. 

[Trov]

I think both A's and Reds would rather have 1 good prospect in return then 3 or 4 middle of road guys.  Just because a trade machine says their values are close does not mean teams would do the deal.  I do think both wait for deadline and get what they think best deal is.  It will be interesting on who pulls the trigger and for what. 

[tony&rodney]

20 hours ago, Squirrel said:

Oakland is not going to give up Montas easily … it will cost and it will hurt. And it will be for top prospects, not anyone on the 26-man.

I agree that a trade for Montas may be controversial. I don't agree that the Twins are not interested because that is not their direction. You didn't say that but others have given that opinion. Sonny Gray for Chase Petty was not a match on the trade site, many trades are not. Oakland is not going to get a total haul for Montas, in my opinion. They should get something similar to what the Twins gained for Berrios. Anything can transpire and the Twins need to keep the conversations active with other teams. A trade would be beneficial but not absolutely necessary. The White Sox have run into a slew of issues this year and their current struggles almost mirror the Twins debacle from last year. I'm still on the Montas wagon.

[ScottyB]

Any way we can throw in Duffey just to get him off the roster? I don’t need anything back for him. I’d even pay his salary.

[Greglw3]

1 hour ago, Greglw3 said:

That trade simulator must have sprung a gasket. No way Laureano is worth that much relative to Montas and Kepler. He has a .691 OPS right now.

Ultimately, I like and OF of Lewis, Kirilloff, Buxton, Larnach and Celestino than any OF with Kepler. I could be wrong.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Pretty big assumption they'll spend big on free agent pitching, when they have completely shown they won't so far. I'd be shocked if they did so. 

Normally, I would agree.  However, they are going to be in a position unlike anything we have seen for this team in a very long time.  They are going to have an establish front-line starter (Gray) at a reasonable price plus Ryan / Winder / Ober and Smeltzer on prearb salary and Paddack on as a 1st year arbitration player AND Canterino and SWR and maybe Balazovic knocking at the door.  There is also a slew of guys that look legit for the BP.  Then, add a rookie SS (Lewis) and Miranda / Kirilloff in the INF.  Then, the OF you have Larnach / Buxton / Kepler / Celestino in the OF.   That's a lot of good players that are going to remain cheap and Buxton / Kepler's salaries are considered in the $75M

They could simply bank the money with a $75M payroll for a good team.   However, they were willing to spend on Wheeler and while I concede and even agree it's a bit presumptuous but what else are they going to spend the available money on?  Plus, this many really good free agent SPs is rare which should give us a decent shot.  Regardless, I believe it would take something like Lewis and Winder to get Montas and that does not make sense unless you believe Montas makes them a serious contender.  I don't believe that is remotely true.  It's possible all the bats could heat up and they could become a serious contender.  It just does not look that way presently.  I also believe that everything they have done was conceptually part of a conceptual strategy similar to what I described above.   I think their plans is coming together and they will stay the course.

[USAFChief]

Sell high on Lewis while you still can. If he nets Montas, do it.

[KirbyDome89]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Normally, I would agree.  However, they are going to be in a position unlike anything we have seen for this team in a very long time.  They are going to have an establish front-line starter (Gray) at a reasonable price plus Ryan / Winder / Ober and Smeltzer on prearb salary and Paddack on as a 1st year arbitration player AND Canterino and SWR and maybe Balazovic knocking at the door.  There is also a slew of guys that look legit for the BP.  Then, add a rookie SS (Lewis) and Miranda / Kirilloff in the INF.  Then, the OF you have Larnach / Buxton / Kepler / Celestino in the OF.   That's a lot of good players that are going to remain cheap and Buxton / Kepler's salaries are considered in the $75M

They could simply bank the money with a $75M payroll for a good team.   However, they were willing to spend on Wheeler and while I concede and even agree it's a bit presumptuous but what else are they going to spend the available money on?  Plus, this many really good free agent SPs is rare which should give us a decent shot.  Regardless, I believe it would take something like Lewis and Winder to get Montas and that does not make sense unless you believe Montas makes them a serious contender.  I don't believe that is remotely true.  It's possible all the bats could heat up and they could become a serious contender.  It just does not look that way presently.  I also believe that everything they have done was conceptually part of a conceptual strategy similar to what I described above.   I think their plans is coming together and they will stay the course.

They had a desperate need, cash to spend, and the same influx of youth + cost controlled core players entering into this season, yet they were content to roll out the bullpen and starting staff we're trying to patch. 

[Major League Ready]

26 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

They had a desperate need, cash to spend, and the same influx of youth + cost controlled core players entering into this season, yet they were content to roll out the bullpen and starting staff we're trying to patch. 

They had literally one reliable starter in Ober and a good looking prospect in Ryan.  The current situation looks very different although we need to see how things look at the end of the season.  Right now it looks quite certain that the unproven prospect (Ryan) is going to be very good.  They added another prospect in Winder that at the moment is similar to Ryan at the end of last year in that he looks very good but needs to establish himself.  We will see by the end of the year.   Then, there is Duran who at the start of the season was certainly not someone anyone was depending on.  Then, we have Smeltzer looking like he will be a solid piece of the equation.  Then, we have Lewis who many wanted to trade because he was so high risk now looking very good.  Then, we have Celestino and Larnach looking great.   The situation is not even remotely similar.  

[KirbyDome89]

9 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

They had literally one reliable starter in Ober and a good looking prospect in Ryan.  The current situation looks very different although we need to see how things look at the end of the season.  Right now it looks quite certain that the unproven prospect (Ryan) is going to be very good.  They added another prospect in Winder that at the moment is similar to Ryan at the end of last year in that he looks very good but needs to establish himself.  We will see by the end of the year.   Then, there is Duran who at the start of the season was certainly not someone anyone was depending on.  Then, we have Smeltzer looking like he will be a solid piece of the equation.  Then, we have Lewis who many wanted to trade because he was so high risk now looking very good.  Then, we have Celestino and Larnach looking great.   The situation is not even remotely similar.  

Exactly, and they still didn't want to commit the years + $$ it'd take to land a high level FA pitcher, but we should expect a departure from the last 6 years after they supposedly added all these solid pieces? 

[Squirrel]

5 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

I agree that a trade for Montas may be controversial. I don't agree that the Twins are not interested because that is not their direction. You didn't say that but others have given that opinion. Sonny Gray for Chase Petty was not a match on the trade site, many trades are not. Oakland is not going to get a total haul for Montas, in my opinion. They should get something similar to what the Twins gained for Berrios. Anything can transpire and the Twins need to keep the conversations active with other teams. A trade would be beneficial but not absolutely necessary. The White Sox have run into a slew of issues this year and their current struggles almost mirror the Twins debacle from last year. I'm still on the Montas wagon.

Right. I agree with all of that. All my point was, if this trade is made I think some people are going to think we spent too much and could have gotten him for less (given some of the thoughts here). Oakland is in the driver's seat on this and we are going to have to give up a couple of good prospects to get him. I think your comparison to the Berrios trade is spot on ... that's who it will take.

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

They had a desperate need, cash to spend, and the same influx of youth + cost controlled core players entering into this season, yet they were content to roll out the bullpen and starting staff we're trying to patch. 

. If we just forget about this year, AGAIN, well then next year the stars will align,  all these prospects will be All Stars, starting pitchers will fall from the free agent candy tree like raindrops, and by gosh then we'll go for it! That'll be just the right time.

 

It's the "carrot on a stick" strategy. We'll grab that carrot NEXT year. 

[twins_89]

I don't know that I'd be all that interested in trading too much for a high end starter. Looking at the starting pitcher depth in the organization, I think we just need to weather this hopefully short term storm of injuries.

Archer and Smeltzer are healthy and have been decent. Over the next week or two Gray, Ryan, Winder, and Ober should be back. One or two of Balazovic, Canterino, and Woods-Richardson (maybe even Varland or Enlow) are likely to be ready later this Summer. Then next year Maeda and Dobnak should re-enter the mix with Paddack following later in the year. That's a lot of fairly good starters, the Twins just need to hold on an hope that whatever curse they are under breaks.

[Cap'n Piranha]

8 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Pretty big assumption they'll spend big on free agent pitching, when they have completely shown they won't so far. I'd be shocked if they did so. 

I think Falvine have completely shown they won't risk overspending on free agent pitching.  That is not the same as showing they won't spend on free agent pitching.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

I think Falvine have completely shown they won't risk overspending on free agent pitching.  That is not the same as showing they won't spend on free agent pitching.

Of course, we are taking about the best pitchers next year, in that conversation. So, I'm not sure your point? You think those guys are signing short term deals for big money in Minnesota?

[Cap'n Piranha]

2 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Exactly, and they still didn't want to commit the years + $$ it'd take to land a high level FA pitcher, but we should expect a departure from the last 6 years after they supposedly added all these solid pieces? 

Precisely--we should expect a departure.  You're thinking of this completely backwards--small to mid market teams (at least the well-run ones) don't spend big to fill holes, because filling holes only makes the boat float, it doesn't make it move.  Small to mid market teams (at least the well-run ones) fix the holes internally, and then spend big to buy engines.

It made no sense for the Twins to spend big on one free agent pitcher when they entered the offseason with literally 2 mostly unproven rookies as the entirety of their rotation.  When the Twins enter this offseason with (hopefully) a solid #2 pitcher (Gray), 2-3 somewhat proven young guys (Ryan, Ober, Winder), 2 established vets coming back from injuries (Maeda and Paddack), and some good depth options (Smeltzer and Dobnak), not to mention a passel of nice prospects (SWR, Balazovic, Varland, etc), spending on an ace makes a lot of sense.

[Cap'n Piranha]

7 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Of course, we are taking about the best pitchers next year, in that conversation. So, I'm not sure your point? You think those guys are signing short term deals for big money in Minnesota?

I think an ace that is the final piece to give you a legitimate chance to win a World Series in years 1-3 of the contract would not be considered overspending by Falvine.  After all, they gave 35 year old Josh Donaldson 4 years and $100M when they thought they had a chance to win the World Series, and that was when the payroll was substantially higher than it will be at the end of this year.

[jorgenswest]

Ober to IL. The Twins have a rotation of TBA, Archer and Bundy to go up against the Yankees. They back that up with Smeltzer and TBA for the Rays. I am guessing Cole Sands pitches tomorrow and maybe Chi Chi Gonzalez for the TB series and then maybe back to Sands unless Ryan is ready by then.

They might consider trading prospects for starting pitching.

[Mike Sixel]

16 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

I think an ace that is the final piece to give you a legitimate chance to win a World Series in years 1-3 of the contract would not be considered overspending by Falvine.  After all, they gave 35 year old Josh Donaldson 4 years and $100M when they thought they had a chance to win the World Series, and that was when the payroll was substantially higher than it will be at the end of this year.

He's a hitter. They have shown no desire to sign a pitcher for more than two, maybe three, years at a time. I'll be happy to be wrong.

[Mike Sixel]

7 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Ober to IL. The Twins have a rotation of TBA, Archer and Bundy to go up against the Yankees. They back that up with Smeltzer and TBA for the Rays. I am guessing Cole Sands pitches tomorrow and maybe Chi Chi Gonzalez for the TB series and then maybe back to Sands unless Ryan is ready by then.

They might consider trading prospects for starting pitching.

No one is trading right now. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

On 6/5/2022 at 12:54 PM, Trov said:

Even you feel we do not need a new starter, you can never have too much good pitching.  There are a couple of pitchers on the trading block and are expected to be traded.  The top prize would be Frankie Montas, with Luis Castillo as the fall back for teams.  There are others out there but going to talk about these two right now.  We all know Montas is going by deadline, the question will be to whom and for whom.  Castillo is expected to go to.  Both have 1.5 years of control now, so value is only going to go down if they are not traded this year, and both teams did full on fire sale. 

Montas is the number one pitcher out there, and having a good year overall. What would it take to get him, and should we give it up?  I think a close comparison would be Jose Berrios, Montas is older, with same amount of years of control at the possible trade, but I would argue Montas is slightly better pitcher.  One thing that concers me about Montas is his home road splits are slightly better in the pitcher park of Oakland, but not crazy different, and Berrios was much better at home over his career too.  So we got a teams high hitting prospect and high pitching prospect, both in AA.  I have heard some people float the trade of Montas for the same package.  Would that get it done now?  I do not think so.  

The reason I doubt Oakland would take same offer is Martin has not been amazing and most likely has dropped some down the prospect lists.  My guess Oakland wants Lewis in any deal, and will hold out for him, or send Montas somewhere else.  Would you give up Lewis, and a top pitching prospect?  If it was in the off-season I think most would have said yes, but after seeing how Lewis regained his top prospect form, I think many would say no now.  I am not saying we should or should not, but my guess to get Montas we have to give up Lewis, unless no other team is willing to come close Oakland asking price, which has reported to be very high for Montas.  They know they could really wait to next off-season if really needed to and get something in return. Right if a deal was going to be struck I see Lewis and either SWR or similar pitching prospect or Lewis and Emmual Rodriguez, who appears to be flying up prospect lists.

I think Castillo can be got for less, but not much.  He similar has better home splits, but he has pitched in a hitters park his whole career.  He has similar numbers to Montas, same age, same control and similar k rates, but Castillo slightly higher walk rates.  Really they are very similar stats and either could be a great get.  Castillo is coming off of injury and had late start to year.  I bet Reds have a similar asking price for now as well.  Would we give up Lewis for Castillo?  I doubt it, but my guess that is what the Reds will be asking for.  

If we could get either for giving up someone like Rodriguez, who was not high on lists coming into year, but looking like he will make huge jumps, but still a couple years away, and one of our many pitching prospects, I would pull the trigger right now.  If Lewis is needed for either deal to get done, I would hang up right away.  With not knowing what Correa future with team looks like, most likely he walks after this year, we should expect to need Lewis for next several years, but Rodriguez is far away.  I may be overvaluing him, as some rankings had him barely in our top 20 lists.  Noah Miller may be someone targeted too. If Martin gets the deals done and a lower prospect I am all for that too.  If Lewis is required I pass 100%.

Would anyone be willing to give up Lewis in the ultimate win this year move? I do not think either makes us a favorite to win, and even if they did, nothing says they would, and passing on years of what looks like hopeful great SS play for a 1.5 year rental of a top end starter is hard to do in my opinion. 

Lewis is major league ready now. No way I would trade that young man. I propose to trade some pitching prospect who are 2-3 years away. (Chase Petty type...whom I wish we had not traded, but I do like Sonny Gray a lot). I would propose to trade  pitching prospects for Montas, rather than  hitter/fielder prospects. I may be wrong, but I think pitching prospects are riskier. By the way, the Blue Jays have a glut of young catchers. Sure would like to get one.

[jorgenswest]

28 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

No one is trading right now. 

They are rare. The need isn’t going to go away. Ober and Gray are both on their second IL stay. Neither should be counted on come playoffs.

I don’t know when the first trade for a good starter will happen but the Twins need to be ready to make that deal.

[Cap'n Piranha]

13 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

He's a hitter. They have shown no desire to sign a pitcher for more than two, maybe three, years at a time. I'll be happy to be wrong.

They have shown desire, it just also takes desire from the pitcher to sign the deal too.  Donaldson was the pivot when Wheeler didn't work out (because Wheeler's agent told the Twins not to bother--that's according to Gleeman).

Even with Donaldson being a hitter, why would the calculus be any different?  The Donaldson deal shows the Twins are perfectly willing to sign aging players to multiyear big-money deals they know are significant risks in the back half IF that player is perceived to be the missing peice for a World Series run.  There was no pitcher that fit that bill this year, simply because the Twins were not one starting pitcher away.

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Precisely--we should expect a departure.  You're thinking of this completely backwards--small to mid market teams (at least the well-run ones) don't spend big to fill holes, because filling holes only makes the boat float, it doesn't make it move.  Small to mid market teams (at least the well-run ones) fix the holes internally, and then spend big to buy engines.

It made no sense for the Twins to spend big on one free agent pitcher when they entered the offseason with literally 2 mostly unproven rookies as the entirety of their rotation.  When the Twins enter this offseason with (hopefully) a solid #2 pitcher (Gray), 2-3 somewhat proven young guys (Ryan, Ober, Winder), 2 established vets coming back from injuries (Maeda and Paddack), and some good depth options (Smeltzer and Dobnak), not to mention a passel of nice prospects (SWR, Balazovic, Varland, etc), spending on an ace makes a lot of sense.

I totally agree but this doesn't mean that Falvey would even consider signing a free agent pitcher that could potentially make a difference. 

A trade still feels more likely. The Twins could extend the player they receive in a trade.

[dxpavelka]

13 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

You mean Kepler and Martin and not Lewis and Miranda, right? I think Lewis and Miranda have a chance to be the equivalent or reasonably close to it of Gaetti and Hrbek on the 1987 Twins.

No, I mean Montas & Castillo. 

[Trov]

11 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

He's a hitter. They have shown no desire to sign a pitcher for more than two, maybe three, years at a time. I'll be happy to be wrong.

Who do you wish they would have signed in last 2 to 3 years as a SP?  I bet if you looked up the names you wish they would have signed, outside of Cole, and Scherzer, you will not find to many names that are earning their contracts now. 

[Major League Ready]

14 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Exactly, and they still didn't want to commit the years + $$ it'd take to land a high level FA pitcher, but we should expect a departure from the last 6 years after they supposedly added all these solid pieces? 

Yes, if they only would have landed Robbie Ray like you wanted all would be solved.  His 4.97 ERA would have been the solution.  They had absolutely no chance of building a contender through free agency.  Plus, they had a variety of prospects they believed would be successful.  Had they followed the path you insist upon, we would be nowhere.  Instead, they have already established Ryan and Duran.  Winder looks great and even Smeltzer looks to be a valuable asset.   They have improved the team's long-term outlook immensely and yet you are still wondering why they did not try to build through free agency and trades.  

[Major League Ready]

20 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

I would do the trade now rather than the hope of signing a free agent in the future.

 

I am sure you would.

[TwinsDr2021]

11 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

He's a hitter. They have shown no desire to sign a pitcher for more than two, maybe three, years at a time. I'll be happy to be wrong.

I agree, what I have learned is this FO isn't going to sign a top pitcher long term, they will sign top hitters for the short term to fill holes. They seem content with bringing up prospects, signing reclamation projects and trading for pitchers (Odo, Maeda, Gray, Paddock).

I can't see them adding a pitcher with multiple years of control this year. Since next year they will have Ryan, Gray, Ober, Maeda, Winder, Smeltzer, and hopefully Sands, Dobnack, Balazovic, Canternio....