Reviewing the José Berríos Trade

[Cody Christie]

The Twins head to Toronto this weekend, and old friend José Berríos is scheduled to take the mound in the series. So, how have the players performed that were involved in the trade?

To give some perspective to this trade, it is important to note that Jose Berríos was under team control through the 2022 season. Since acquiring him, Toronto has signed him to a 7-year, $131 million deal that buys out the prime of his career. Minnesota traded 1 1/2 years of Berríos for Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson. 

José Berríos
2022 Stats: 5.62 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 69 ERA+, 36 K, 14 BB, 49 2/3 innings
Berrios got what he wanted from Toronto. They paid him as if he were one of baseball's most consistent pitchers through the first six years of his career. His new contract ties him to the Blue Jay through the 2028 season when he will be in his mid-30s. There were no signs that Minnesota was willing to give him that kind of contract, which was one of the main reasons the team was willing to trade him last season. 

Unfortunately, Berríos is in the middle of his worst start to a season since his rookie campaign. He has allowed three runs or more in six of his ten starts while averaging less than five innings per outing. Two of his most significant issues have been home runs and a steep decline in strikeout rate. He's allowed at least one home run in all but two appearances this year. Entering the season, he averaged more than one strikeout per inning, but he has a 6.5 K/9 so far in 2022. Pitching in the AL East is an entirely different beast from seeing the AL Central's bottom feeders. That being said, Berríos still has time to figure it out this season.

Austin Martin
2022 Stats: .258/.377/.333 (.710), 7 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 25 K, 22 BB, 40 G
Austin Martin was the top-ranked prospect the Twins got from the Blue Jays. He was a consensus top-55 prospect entering the season. Minnesota sent Martin back to Double-A this season which is where he made his professional debut in 2021. Last season, he posted a .796 OPS, which was tied mainly to his .414 OBP. He was touted for his powerful swing in college, but that power hasn't been evident over the last two seasons. 

So far in 2022, Martin's OPS has dipped over 85 points even with a return trip through the Texas League. He is still over a year younger than the average age of the competition at that level. The vast majority of his defensive innings have come at shortstop, but he has also played second base and all three outfield positions. Martin's stock has certainly dropped since the Twins acquired him, but he is only 23-years-old, and he can still make adjustments as he gets closer to Target Field. 

Simeon Woods Richardson
2022 Stats: 3.02 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 42 K, 14 BB, 41 2/3 innings
Baseball America and MLB.com included Woods Richardson on their pre-season top-100 prospects, so it's not like he was just a throw-in player in the trade. During the 2021 season, Woods Richardson struggled to adjust to Double-A, but he was over 4.5 years younger than the average age of the competition at that level. In 15 appearances (53 1/3 innings), he posted a 5.91 ERA with a 1.54 WHIP and a 77-to-34 strikeout to walk ratio. It was a choppy season for him because he was also on Team USA's Olympic team in Beijing.  

In his second stint at Double-A, Woods Richardson has looked like a completely different pitcher this season. He has only faced older batters in eight plate appearances this year, but he has still been one of the Texas League's best starters. In eight starts (41 2/3 innings), he has posted a 3.02 ERA with a 1.03 WHIP and a 42-to-14 strikeout to walk ratio. His strikeout rate has dropped this season, but he has been more effective at limiting hits and home runs. This season, Woods Richardson's performance has moved him up the TD Top-20 Prospect List. 

It will likely be multiple years before a winner can be declared in this trade. However, the Twins were able to acquire two highly-regarded prospects for a pitcher they weren't going to keep long-term. 

What are your thoughts as you look back on the trade? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[rwilfong86]

Hated it at the time, but almost a year later I think, with his inconsistencies, the Twins did well. 

[TeJayDubz]

I've always liked Simeon Woods Richardson from his draft day with the Mets. He's got a high ceiling but his high floor is where I'm most impressed. I'm really looking forward to seeing his debut in the coming months/year.

[RJA]

It is too early to judge this trade. Berríos might bounce back this year and in future years, or he could continue to struggle. Martin could breakout or remain a prospect that seems a tad overrated. SWR might also breakout this year, or he could swoon later this summer like he has in the past. Let’s revisit this a year or two from now. Frankly, Berríos never was as successful as he should have been given his stuff, but if he reaches his potential, he will be very good. That might be true of Martin and SWR as well. 

[Tiantwindup]

I chafe at the need to declare a winner on a trade.  Certainly there are cases where trades are lop-sided (see Archer to the Pirates), and a ‘winner’ can be declared, but I believe it is better to think in terms of the trade being good or bad for a team. This approach means both teams can ‘win’ (good trade for both), or both lose.  Case in appointment:  the Pressly trade was good for Houston and for Minnesota; in the short-term the Astros got a very good reliever that contributed to several deep playoff runs. The Twins got two players that appear primed to make strong contributions for many years. 
 

Certainly let’s discuss and analyze trades as this review does, but declaring a ‘winner’ just isn’t necessary and can sometimes be counterproductive to a deeper discussion of the trade.

 

[tony&rodney]

The Berrios trade has been reviewed and discussed pretty regularly. I suppose it will continue to be discussed later in this season and into the offseason.

My take is the Twins would be better off with Berrios this year because he is a MLB pitcher and both Martin and Woods-Richardson are minor leaguers. Maybe in a year or three circumstances will change.

It should be interesting to see how a struggling Berrios fares versus a struggling Twins offense this weekend.

[MABB1959]

49 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The Berrios trade has been reviewed and discussed pretty regularly. I suppose it will continue to be discussed later in this season and into the offseason.

My take is the Twins would be better off with Berrios this year because he is a MLB pitcher and both Martin and Woods-Richardson are minor leaguers. Maybe in a year or three circumstances will change.

It should be interesting to see how a struggling Berrios fares versus a struggling Twins offense this weekend.

I agree he is a good pitcher consistently in the line up and has one of the highest inning pitched.  A record of 3-2 isn't horrible.  He is in the AL East and just faced the Dodgers.  Way too early to decide this year is going to be bad for him.  I wish we had him, always will.  He is what we wait for in a prospect.  If you like to follow prospects this is the perfect team to do so.

[terrydactyls]

Question for you, Cody.  You stated that last year SWR was 4.5 years younger than the league average.  Later you state that so far in 2022, he only faced eight batters older than him.  How did he go from way younger to way older in just one year?  Did you mean he only has faced eight batters younger? 

[Trov]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

The Berrios trade has been reviewed and discussed pretty regularly. I suppose it will continue to be discussed later in this season and into the offseason.

My take is the Twins would be better off with Berrios this year because he is a MLB pitcher and both Martin and Woods-Richardson are minor leaguers. Maybe in a year or three circumstances will change.

It should be interesting to see how a struggling Berrios fares versus a struggling Twins offense this weekend.

The thing if he was still on the team this year, some of the offseason moves may not have been made, each move affects the next.  It will be interesting to see how he does against us.  Will he have a bounce back start, or will he get rocked? 

Berrios was always a decent starter, not a true number 1 guy but he could have some great starts and we always wanted more from him.  He is now getting paid like a top 20 pitcher in all of baseball.  He is in his age 28 season and having his worst season of his career.  Can he turn it around, sure he has always been a guy that has run of bad starts and great ones. 

He was likely going to be traded at some point, as no way were Twins giving him a 7 year deal like he wanted.  Although the trade may not be a great win for Twins down road, I have hope, my guess they would not have got anything better before this season or certainly not during it. 

If he was doing this with our staff, he would be the worst starter on overall results wise.  Jose did have a few good starts for sure though.  We would not be talking about how we need to get rid of Jose but how we need to be patient and he will bounce back.  Too many fans look at him with rose colored glasses thinking he was much more than he was, because he was the best home grown pitcher in a long time, but he was not as good as many think he was.  

I hope for him he turns it around, but I believe we made the trade at the right time. 

[mickster]

I liked the trade when it happened as it was becoming clear that Berrios was not going to sign.    Now I am hoping we can use Martin as an asset to land us a top pitcher soon.

 

[Rosterman]

The winner is actually Jose Berrios. He knew what he wanted, pretty much laid out the starting point for a contract, and the Twins balked. They traded him to Toronto. He pitched well for Toronto and they didn't balk, seeing that they could lock him up for 7 years for an amount many pitchers his age would get for five seasons. 

The Twins wouldn't do that. But if they had kept Berrios, he would have to pitch in 2022 like it would be the best season of his life...if he wanted big free agent monies.

The flipside is that, yes, Berrios is facing clubs with more expensive payrolls.

Martin is only in his second pro season. He may be good, but is he super great to make the jump to the Big Leagues that fast, coming from metal bats in college town? Plus, the was going to be an opportunity for him to settle into a position (or two) at AAA level, while the Twins sorted out the Royce Lewis issue (can he hit, is he our TOP prospect)m as the TYwins also sit on the bubble of the Correa contract and where to play Lewis, and also Martin, next season and for years to come.

Looks like Martin can also bring the speed game to the Twins.

What I like about Woods-Richardson is that he does seem to be growing as a pitcher. Working on areas that gave him trouble, developing better command. 

Both should make it to St. Paul once the Twins draft players that push everyone else up a rung in the minor league ladder, and when the Twins choose to cut bait with many of the fledging minor league free agents populating the roster in St. Paul.

[cheeseheadgophfan]

I've just got a bad feeling that Berrios is going to throw 7 shutout with 10 K's against the Twins.....he will have a little more adrenaline facing the former squad.

[jimbo92107]

The key to this evaluation is, as Cody referred, the low quality of the AL Central. Berrios fed off these poor teams regularly, allowing him to pile up wins and keep his ERA relatively low. Now, he's facing better teams, with better hitters. Assuming he's throwing about the same stuff, we see what happens. 

Flip side, Twins got Martin and SWR, two good prospects in the Toronto system. Again, referring to the low quality of the AL Central, there's no reason to feel bad about either guy's future. Martin will be a super sub, and SWR will be pitching vs. relatively mediocre teams. Both should do well here.

Twins win because they are in a weak division, and were able to replace Berrios with an untested rookie, Joe Ryan. Toronto loses because they didn't realize how narrow was the margin by which Berrios was effective, even against weak teams. If Martin pans out merely as a solid player, it's an even deal. If either he or SWR is a star, then the Twins win big. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Rosterman said:

Martin is only in his second pro season. He may be good, but is he super great to make the jump to the Big Leagues that fast, coming from metal bats in college town? Plus, the was going to be an opportunity for him to settle into a position (or two) at AAA level, while the Twins sorted out the Royce Lewis issue (can he hit, is he our TOP prospect)m as the TYwins also sit on the bubble of the Correa contract and where to play Lewis, and also Martin, next season and for years to come.

Looks like Martin can also bring the speed game to the Twins.

I'd like to see Martin playing 2B and the outfield. Polanco and Kepler are both nearing the end of their contracts. He's not a shortstop.

[Cap'n Piranha]

Jose Berrios is a textbook example of how the Twins need to operate to maintain success year after year.  Identify and acquire talent in the draft.  Develop it in the minors and majors.  Trade it for more talent when the amount needed to keep it becomes excessive.

[PatPfund]

Good recap, but really too early to tell. I always liked Jose, but it never really came together for extended periods, and I expect the Jays paid way, way too much on the contract. Twins got some promising pieces, and right now the balance looks good for MN. But then so did the Twins pitching depth a month ago, so time will tell.

[jimmyc]

FYI:  Please fix your Austin Martin B-R link in the article.  It brings me to martin006aus not martin004aus.

[bean5302]

I have a very strong opinion "younger than his competition" is a carryover from failed farm systems of the Twins' past. If a player is going to be valuable at the MLB level, they're generally going to move through the minors quickly and easily. It's expected players are younger than their competition. In most cases, several years younger.

Martin is not young for AA. If anything he's average age or even a year older for a high caliber prospect at that level as he's now 23. The article also overlooks just how absolutely embarrassing Martin's defense has been at SS not only this year, but in Toronto as well. It's hard to imagine he could have had a start to the season which would have damaged his stock more.

Woods-Richardson's 2021 was a catastrophe during his time with the Twins, but there was every reason to suspect he'd turn everything around this season. Woods-Richardson started the season great, but 4 of his last 5 starts have seen him get hammered with a 5.91 ERA and control issues. Now nearing age 22 and also in his second year of AA, he really needs to turn things around this season or see his stock fall as well.

[Seansy]

I liked the trade at the time and nothing has happened to change my opinion now.

The Twins likely won that trade but until we see the two prospects provide value it is TBD.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

9 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

Question for you, Cody.  You stated that last year SWR was 4.5 years younger than the league average.  Later you state that so far in 2022, he only faced eight batters older than him.  How did he go from way younger to way older in just one year?  Did you mean he only has faced eight batters younger? 

I think Cody meant to type "younger" instead of "older".

[Brandon]

If we still had Berrios we would probably still have Rogers too.  

The thing of it though is we followed Berrios since he was drafted as an 18 year old.  It would be fun to have him spend his career in Minnesota.  

It looks as though Martin is on track to being a super sub player.  The question will be can he hit enough for average or will he develop enough power to be productive?  He gets lots of walks now but when he comes up and hits .250 how many walks will he get?  a .315 OBP is not good enough to start if you do not hit 25+ HRs.  

Richardson-Woods seems like he will be a good starting pitcher for us.  

Rosterman is right in that Berrios won the trade.  

I think we lost it a little because we would have qualifying offers on Rogers and Berrios and would get draft pick compensation for them when they left this offseason and we would probably be a better team with them on it.  

But the final outcome is to be determined.....

[dxpavelka]

Could have had Buxton AND Berrios for less than someone (else) will probably give Correa after this season.  Gonna take a lot more than we've seen from Martin and Woods-Richardson to top that.

 

[Taildragger8791]

3 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Could have had Buxton AND Berrios for less than someone (else) will probably give Correa after this season.  Gonna take a lot more than we've seen from Martin and Woods-Richardson to top that.

 

And you get what you pay for. An inconsistent good-not-great pitcher who hasn’t proven he can handle big games, and a stud talent that needs load management and plays <100 games per year. Sometimes the big contract actually makes sense. 

[dxpavelka]

13 hours ago, Taildragger8791 said:

And you get what you pay for. An inconsistent good-not-great pitcher who hasn’t proven he can handle big games, and a stud talent that needs load management and plays <100 games per year. Sometimes the big contract actually makes sense. 

Ryan, Gray & even Bundy have been better, THUS FAR this season but if you're gonna use the "can't stay on the field" argument against Buxton you have to use it against them as well.  I'll still take him.

 

[bean5302]

17 hours ago, Brandon said:

If we still had Berrios we would probably still have Rogers too...

I don't think that's true. The front office does not like spending money on relief pitching and they were clearly very interested in moving him last year but he injury prevented it. The front office did make some efforts to sign Berrios, but I think Rogers was going to be shown the door no matter what.

[jorgenswest]

Would Martin and Woods-Richardson bring back Frankie Montas? If so the deal is a win. They would be giving up a season Berrios where they were going nowhere for a 2023 season from Montas.

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Berrios will be fine. Another way to frame it is I think Toronto still does that trade 10 times out of 10, with the talent they have the next few years, and their window. Exactly the kind of trade the Twins would benefit from, in my opinion. It’s just too bad for Toronto that the Yankees are off to such a a torrid start this season. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Would Martin and Woods-Richardson bring back Frankie Montas? If so the deal is a win. They would be giving up a season Berrios where they were going nowhere for a 2023 season from Montas.

 

It seems a little contradictory given that Woods-Richarson’s stats are not too bad, but as part of any future deal he would be an over-traded prospect at that point. (Drafted by Mets, traded to Jays, traded to Twins, traded to next team.) So unless there is a team or scout out there still in love with him from his amateur days, I would think his status as being traded multiple times would raise questions on a negotiation call.  

[tony&rodney]

I guess we can  put to bed the notion that trading Berrios was a net gain for the Twins. The odds of Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson, no matter how much we like them, being as good of  MLB players as Berrios is very remote indeed. Does anyone really believe/think that Woods-Richardson will ever strike out 13 batters against a first place team in the major leagues? I'm afraid many have underrated Jose Berrios.

[jorgenswest]

5 hours ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

It seems a little contradictory given that Woods-Richarson’s stats are not too bad, but as part of any future deal he would be an over-traded prospect at that point. (Drafted by Mets, traded to Jays, traded to Twins, traded to next team.) So unless there is a team or scout out there still in love with him from his amateur days, I would think his status as being traded multiple times would raise questions on a negotiation call.  

It doesn’t need the same players but just similar as a means of retaining value. It could be Canterino instead of Woods-Richardson. They have similar value according to BTV.