Game Thread: Twins @ Tigers, 6/2/22, 12:10PM CDT (10:10AM PDT)

[Cap'n Piranha]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I get that and don't think it's a crazy argument. But Duran is 4th amongst relievers in all of baseball in WPA with Rocco using him the way he has. I think that's a sign that he's using Duran pretty well. I don't think it would've been unreasonable to save him til later, but the idea that it was inconceivable to use him there is ridiculous. Using him to face the top of the other lineup in a 1 run game is never inconceivable. The real problem is that they need a ton more bullpen help before Duran usage really even matters.

Well first off, while WPA is an interesting stat, it's still a flawed one, and lacks the context of what happened later in the game in terms of the only stat that really matters--wins.  I'm sure Duran got a nice little boost to his WPA today; the Twins still lost.  I'm not so sure that anyone is saying using him in the 6th was inconceivable--I think what Aggies and I are saying is that it lacks common sense and an understanding of the realities of baseball.  Duran would have faced approximately the same hitters in innings 8 and 9 as he did in 6 or 7--therefore there is no argument to be made that Rocco used him at the right moment, because the exact same moment was all but guaranteed to happen again, only later in the game, and therefore in a higher leverage situation (which should be very relevant to you if you like WPA as a stat, since the best way a relief pitcher can accumulate WPA is to get a lot of saves in 1-run games, or come into situations with runners on).

Agreed that the source of all this is that the Twins bullpen is very leaky right now, and until Falvine commits to having 3-4 "surefire" options in the pen at the start of the year, that's just going to be a reality when the organizational philosophy on bullpens to start the year is to find a bunch of low-priced, somewhat unproven options, and see which ones stick.

[chpettit19]

17 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

I'm not so sure that anyone is saying using him in the 6th was inconceivable--I think what Aggies and I are saying is that it lacks common sense and an understanding of the realities of baseball. 

Now you're playing semantics and making the argument that the Twins, and many other major league teams, "lack common sense and an understanding of the realities of baseball" and you lose all credibility. You think the FO hates Rocco using Rogers years previous and now Duran in these kinds of situations and just doesn't stop him? Or do they agree with it and have more data than you can imagine and an entire front office filled with people duing tons of research that suggest you're wrong?