The Twins Bullpen Is Teetering on the Brink of Disaster

[Nick Nelson]

In terms of impact on winning ballgames, the Minnesota Twins' bullpen has been one of the best in the league this year, playing a key role in propelling the team to first place by a healthy margin through 48 games. 

But a deeper look reveals alarming signs.

 

Monday's game against the Tigers offered ominous signs of potential things to come. Joe Smith, who allowed zero runs in his first 16 appearances of the season, has now allowed four runs in his past four. He couldn't dance his way out of a leadoff triple in the seventh at Detroit, letting two runs in on three hits and taking the loss. 

The regression he's experiencing may be a harbinger for the relief corps as a whole.

According to Win Probability Added, which quantifies the percent change in a team's chances of winning from one event to the next, Minnesota's bullpen entered play Monday as the fourth-best in baseball, adding more than two victories to the ledger through clutch performances in tight situations. With the Twins possessing a 9-5 record in one-run games, that sounds about right.

However, according to Wins Above Replacement, which seeks to paint a more process-driven picture of value, Twins relievers have been the second-WORST in all of baseball – dead last in the American League. FanGraphs pegs this group as sub-replacement level on whole.

That is the case despite breakout star Jhoan Duran pitching incredibly well at the back end. In fact, his status as a crux point in this Twins bullpen might be the scariest thing of all. Without him around, the unit would look dramatically worse and less imposing. 

In order to avoid turning too often to guys like Tyler Duffey and Emilio Pagán, who are hard to trust, the Twins will need to lean hard on Duran. But we're talking about a guy who threw 16 total innings the past two years, and who dealt with a serious elbow strain for almost all of 2021. There's a huge risk in overusing him. From a big-picture perspective, they should probably err toward underusing him.

Reinforcements will be needed as we get into the heart of the summer. Yennier Canó unfortunately did not make a strong impression during his first turn with the big-league club. Danny Coulombe will be out for a while after aggravating his hip injury. Jorge Alcala's return is not imminent.

Right now, there's a lot of pressure on the likes of Juan Minaya, Jovani Moran, and Trevor Megill to establish themselves as viable options in leverage, which is not a great place for the Twins to be.

(This is where I must obligatorily point out that – as Chris Paddack embarks on the long road back from Tommy John surgery – Taylor Rogers has a 1.17 ERA for the Padres and leads the world in saves, although he did cough up a game to Pittsburgh the other night by allowing three runs.)

Minnesota's bullpen has outperformed expectations and underlying metrics like no other in the game. As the season progresses, that balancing act becomes trickier and trickier. So far Rocco Baldelli has mostly been putting relievers in a position to succeed and relievers have mostly been getting it done. 

How much longer will that sustain? Unless a few guys other than Duran can step up, I fear Monday's slip-up was only the beginning.

 

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[The Mad King]

Currently in feeling like (apart from Ryan & Duran) the entire pitching staff is getting by with smoke & mirrors. Over achieving. 

And even my wife loses her mind whenever Duffy (Dean Ambrose) or Pagan step out onto the mound. 

I'm really wishing Alcala comes back soon...

[Rosterman]

You start with short starts. I guy can't throw more than 100 pitches. But at what point is it okay to throw 85 or 90...and we shouldn't totally judge a pitching performance on the number of pitches.

 

A bullpen guy can come out and throw 25-30 pitchers and still be standing on the rubber looking at men on base, and you leave him in to work it thru...because the other guys aren't on the cycle to pitch today.

The Twins have 14 frickin' pitchers. Even in the best of times, you never had that many. And you also seem to have a revolving door between AAA, even when they are out-of-town. And the slightest hick-up makes a guy inactive.

If there is one positive, the Twins have been pushing their guys, often, towards more than one inning. That will really be fine if starters can give you six for sue and a 7th as a bonus (way to go, Smeltzer).

What the Twins lack is consistent role players, or dependable arms that can pitch consecutive days, be it short, or maybe long.

Smith was that crafty guy who could get you out of an inning. Megill may be that guy, too.

Off-season, the writing was written-onthe-wall ragrding Duffey and Caleb Thielbar. If you could get something out of them while revalutaing the bullpen, it would be a plus.

But it doesn't help when Coulombe, Alcala, Stashak go down. Well, maybe it does. We get to see more Moran. And maybe Cano will adjust and come back stronger than ever, of become the next...Anthony Slama.

The Twins lack a real closer. They do have some good strikeout artists. They have decent put-the-ball in play guys. Actually, if they would improve on Duff and Thielbar, get a solid rotation going, and have arms like Jax/Winder/Smeltzer in relief right now (although the more we continue in the season, I'm feaering Bundy and Archer are 2022's Happ and Shoemaker light).

I am taken aback that they are now monitoring throws in the bullpen. Charts and graphs and video and all is fine, but start talking to the guys...well, I guess you do because a zit popped on my butt and threw off my balance and I need to come out of the game, and if infected, go on the disabled list.

[h2oface]

Interesting article and supporting stats. Thank you. 

For some of the fans, we welcomed the opening surprise, but were never fooled. This pen is a disaster waiting to happen, and some of it has already happened. No crow needed for a first course.

The good part is the W-L record so far. The bad part is the praise that some writers and media and fans gave the FO for being so ...... "smart", and going with them and "see, we didn't need to spend on the pen, and we won the Rogers trade." Well, it is a loooooooooong season. And the surprise early cream is rotting. and sinking from its early visit to the top.

Now that we have a good start, it is time to make every effort to spend and save the season and prop up the pitching with proven talent and fix what was ignored in the off season, or the start will be wasted.

[jorgenswest]

There was never any reason to think Joe Smith had changed. His ERA has bounced around due to the small sample of any single season of a reliever. Reliever ERA should be ignored. His xFIP has been very stable for 4 years. Use him to put out a fire against right handed batting in the middle innings and he will be useful.

Pagán’s command trouble shows itself in two ways. If he pitches to stay out of the center of the plate he gives up too many walks. If he pitches to keep his walks down he gives up too much hard contact. There doesn’t seem to be a middle ground. His outlier year with the Rays is three years in the past and in a year he stranded 95% of base runners. That really isn’t a skill. His career number is 80%. This year it is 98% thus far. I would expect it to be closer to his career number going forward. The Padres wanted to send him to the Mets even without getting a reliever back. I wonder if they planned on keeping him if they didn’t find a trade partner.

The Twins could have fixed their starting pitching needs by trading prospects. Instead they cut the head off their bullpen. As Chief said at the time… “No team serious about contending trades Rogers.” Unlike the Padres, the Twins are not serious about contending this year. 

[mikelink45]

I am so sad - the BP just looks like an impending disaster.  The SP is a mirage.  Help.  Tell me the CBD was laced with THD and I am just not seeing the future correctly.

 

[TwinsDr2021]

I assume this really isn't a problem because this is how baseball is played by all teams. Short starts, over using pitchers that aren't that good, and light rail ride between CHS and Target field?

 

 

[Game7-91]

46 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Unlike the Padres, the Twins are not serious about contending this year.

Question is contending for what exactly? If its 3rd WC, they have a chance. If its legitimately winning games and series in the playoffs....just not happening with the current roster, and that's without the spate of injuries. It's going to be patch and hope for awhile. I would prefer Archer or Bundy to reinforce the 'pen, but we need Ryan and Gray to return asap and ready to put up #'s similar to what they have so far. But Archer/Bundy doesnt solve all the BP woes...and yeah, agreed with Nick, the Rogers trade looks like a loser in retrospect.

It may be heresy to say this, but I will say it again...they have value in experienced infield positions, and lots of young options that need rep's real-time. And so I am looking for one of Correa or Polanco to move at the deadline, preferably Correa. Either (should) bring a pitching prospect in return,  and moving one of them opens a spot for one of the young guns. I would be looking at it because I dont believe 2022 is a legit threat to make a run in playoffs, even if they get there this year. They need to prep their young guys to perform next year, and build more quality, and more depth, front to back in the pitching staff for next year.

[Matt Braun]

A competitive Twins team with a problematic bullpen? Is it 2019 again?

[Doctor Gast]

Trading Rogers and over relying on short relief is a ticking time bomb. We were desperate for closing before the season started and they trade away our only proven closer! We have been lucky so far but once they are stretched too far they'll explode. To compensate they'll start over-extending the rotation and then we'll have injuries and arms'll go dead. Then it's down the toilet.We've had this problem  for a long time even with Molitor. 

I've advocated for years the need for long relief. If long relef was established from the beginning of the year and used, we be in a lot better shape. But right now we'll be going through a long haul of games and not having barely enough SPs to cover the games much less having pitchers to cover long relief. We desperately need Ryan and Winder to return and hope Gray is OK to cover his turn. So we have both Winder and Smeltzer in long relief or Archer and Bundy if that works out, I don't care as long as we have a long relief corp in steady use.

[Vanimal46]

As Rick Pitino once said, “All the negativity in this town sucks.”

Is fWAR to date really a good measurement for past and most importantly (your article topic) future performance of a bullpen? Come on Nick, you’re better than that. Feeding red meat to the negativity wolves. 

[Nick Nelson]

22 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Is fWAR to date really a good measurement for past and most importantly (your article topic) future performance of a bullpen?

... Yes? Underlying performance indicators tend to be predictive. That's my whole point. I'm not feeding "negativity wolves" I'm addressing a very real and palpable concern about this team's outlook.

[Puckettsprintstofirst]

Lots of questions with pitching right now.  Are we going to see a June Swoon? Would be very frustrating to see all the good work the last two months fade away.  Smeltzer our best available starter, who would've thought that a few weeks ago.  Would be great if Canterino, Balazovic, SWR could step into a bullpen role.  

Seems like the pitching is teetering right now.  May need the offense to carry the load for time being and hope the pitching sorts things out.  Can't afford defensive lapses like we saw today, no room for error.

[old nurse]

8 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

As Rick Pitino once said, “All the negativity in this town sucks.”

Is fWAR to date really a good measurement for past and most importantly (your article topic) future performance of a bullpen? Come on Nick, you’re better than that. Feeding red meat to the negativity wolves. 

That’s was a Denny Green line

[rwilfong86]

6 hours ago, Puckettsprintstofirst said:

Lots of questions with pitching right now.  Are we going to see a June Swoon? Would be very frustrating to see all the good work the last two months fade away.  Smeltzer our best available starter, who would've thought that a few weeks ago.  Would be great if Canterino, Balazovic, SWR could step into a bullpen role.  

Seems like the pitching is teetering right now.  May need the offense to carry the load for time being and hope the pitching sorts things out.  Can't afford defensive lapses like we saw today, no room for error.

Even with a soon, the Twins may still be in first place because the rest of the division doesn't seem to wanna win gain any ground. And with TA out for the White Sox definitely impacts their chances.

[TopGunn#22]

They have done about all they can with shuttling guys back and forth from AAA.  It's time to make a few trades to add some juice to the bullpen and move on from guys (Theilbar, Duffey) who just don't have that juice anymore.  Lopez from Baltimore and Puk from Oakland are a couple of guys that interest me.  But I'd stress that the F.O. can't wait until the deadline.  They need to reinforce the bullpen sooner rather than later.  

[terrydactyls]

It's my birthday today and all I'm asking for is a few articles that don't mention the Rogers trade.  It happened.  It's a done deal.  No backsies.  Or to put it in plain English, quit beating a dead horse.  It seems to me that whenever a discussion starts, the same old arguments get thrown out even if they really aren't relevant to the topic.  Yes, the Rogers trade may have been awful, but that doesn't respond to the question:  What to do about the bullpen?  Given what the Twins have to work with, my thought would be to bring in as many minor leaguer relief pitchers as necessary to see if any of them can do the job.  And please don't bother with the 40-man roster excuse.  A very quick look at the current 40-man roster shows several players that are potential drops (Thielbar, Stashak, Strotman, Bundy, Pagan, Duffy).

[Mark G]

5 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

It's my birthday today and all I'm asking for is a few articles that don't mention the Rogers trade.  It happened.  It's a done deal.  No backsies.  Or to put it in plain English, quit beating a dead horse.  It seems to me that whenever a discussion starts, the same old arguments get thrown out even if they really aren't relevant to the topic.  Yes, the Rogers trade may have been awful, but that doesn't respond to the question:  What to do about the bullpen?  Given what the Twins have to work with, my thought would be to bring in as many minor leaguer relief pitchers as necessary to see if any of them can do the job.  And please don't bother with the 40-man roster excuse.  A very quick look at the current 40-man roster shows several players that are potential drops (Thielbar, Stashak, Strotman, Bundy, Pagan, Duffy).

Happy birthday, my friend!!  In your honor I will only mention Rogers once, in that if we think that trade was a little sketchy (more than a little?), then I can only imagine what would be discussed if we dropped Thielbar, Pagan, and Duffy for a bunch of minor leaguers.  That would be one gamble that had REALLY better work, or we all know what would hit the fan.  Not to mention how it would close out the San Diego trade (I didn't say anyone's name) with Paddock and Pagan both gone, albeit for different reasons.  

My personal belief is that if Christmas can come in July in half this countries sales, why can't the July trade deadline come in June and start the bidding early on a couple of names we think might be on the market eventually anyway? Who says we have to wait for the rush hour on trades?  The early bird..................

Again, Happy Birthday!!

[TopGunn#22]

Happy Birthday indeed Terry-Dacs !!  I will only mention Rogers this one time as well.  It frustrates me that Rocco didn't seem to realize what he had in Rogers...a CLOSER !  Part of the disaster of 2021 was going with the bum Colome FAR longer than was needed.  Rocco wanted a split BP while I thought Rogers should have been the closer all along.  Even with the huge hole we dug, Rocco still didn't seem to realize that.  No he's closing for the Padres and he'll be an All Star.  

As I said earlier, I think we've gotten about as much as we can out of the "St. Paul Shuffle."  It's time to deal some prospects for bullpen arms that can actually help.  They need TWO arms and they should make a trade sooner rather than later.  

[mikelink45]

2 hours ago, old nurse said:

That’s was a Denny Green line

And the important thing to remember is that both deserved much of the negativity.  

[rv78]

Bottom line is, the Twins won't spend for quality arms. Bundy and Archer were cheap and like someone said above are possibly heading towards Shoemaker and Happ status here very quickly. Gray was the best signing/trade and he's not much above Berrios talent wise at this point in his career so they really didn't upgrade much there. I wasn't upset they traded Rogers. Coming off a finger injury who knows how effective he'll be. What was upsetting was what they got in return. Of all the relievers they have returning from last season, Alcala was the only one who showed much upside. Guys like Duffey, Thielbar, Coulombe, Stashak, are as good as they'll ever going to be and unfortunately it isn't good enough for as much as they are used and needed. To top it off, a tough part of the schedule is coming and the Twins could be tied with the WhiteSox at .500 before you know it. Struggling to beat teams like the Royals and Tigers shows where they are headed.

[Whitey333]

The pitching has been a disaster waiting to happen since the season started. With retreads and rookies anchoring the starting pitching we knew the bullpen would be next.  They have been overworked for too long now.  It's hard to expect so much out of them when they are overused.  We must get out of the delusion where the starters give you 4 or 5 innings and think they did a great job.  A well pitched game should take a competent starting pitcher into the 7th inning.  It's ridiculous to see fans give a pitcher a standing ovation for pitching 5 innings and giving up 4 earned runs.  The relievers are pitching way too many innings each game.  It is not sustainable.

[Trov]

I would point out that had there not been a terrible throw from first base in Smith's inning he would have got out of the inning without giving up a run.  The official scoring had it a hit with an error, and then the run turned to earn runs when the next guy hit a weak hit, but had Miranda made a good throw, like Torkelson on similar play later in game made, then we get out of inning without a run allowed.  When you give teams extra outs, even when ruled hits, you will give up more runs.

I do agree we are not dominate pen, but Rocco and company has a plan, and part of that is not to overuse the top guys or overuse starters.  They plan out days in advance of who would be coming in and when normally.  Of course plans adjust on the fly but they are working their process.  Now, hopefully that gets us to playoffs, then throw that damn plan out the window in my opinion. 

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, terrydactyls said:

 What to do about the bullpen?  Given what the Twins have to work with, my thought would be to bring in as many minor leaguer relief pitchers as necessary to see if any of them can do the job.  And please don't bother with the 40-man roster excuse.  A very quick look at the current 40-man roster shows several players that are potential drops (Thielbar, Stashak, Strotman, Bundy, Pagan, Duffy).

The Twins have used 25 different pitchers this year, not counting Nick Gordon, barely into June.

I think bringing up "minor leaguer relief pitchers" to see what might stick has been tried. 

Indeed, I'd say building your bullpen plan based on waiver wire pickups and minor league flotsam and jetsom is how you get into this position in the first place. 

Find external major league help, which won't be cheap, and put your best minor league arms (currently starters) in the pen. 

And yes...don't trade away your best relief option(s).

Cycling through what's remaining in St Paul's bullpen accomplishes nothing. Shuffling deck chairs on the titanic. 

[USAFChief]

3 hours ago, old nurse said:

That’s was a Denny Green line

Nope, Rick Pitino. In Boston.

https://www.cbsnews.com/boston/news/5-sports-figures-blame-media-problems/

 

 

[Eris]

The Twins have 12 players on the IL. 9 are pitchers, 6 plays are on the 60 day IL. It does create some interesting 40 man roster management issues as each additional player added means one more player that can not be protected. Therefore the Twins will likely add AAAA type pitchers.   In addition, there are a number of prospects with significant innings limitations.  It would be useful to construct a 40 man roster for next year. 
 

as a means of comparison, here are some select IL for a few teams.

LAD 9

Houston 4

Toronto 2

Data is from https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/disabled-list/current-player/toronto-blue-jays/

 

 

[Dave The Dastardly]

5 minutes ago, Eris said:

The Twins have 12 players on the IL. 9 are pitchers, 6 plays are on the 60 day IL. It does create some interesting 40 man roster management issues as each additional player added means one more player that can not be protected. Therefore the Twins will likely add AAAA type pitchers.   In addition, there are a number of prospects with significant innings limitations.  It would be useful to construct a 40 man roster for next year. 
 

as a means of comparison, here are some select IL for a few teams.

LAD 9

Houston 4

Toronto 2

Data is from https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/disabled-list/current-player/toronto-blue-jays/

 

 

You mean Rocco Rest and Pitch Limitations isn't "saving" players from injury?

[terrydactyls]

1 hour ago, Mark G said:

Happy birthday, my friend!!  In your honor I will only mention Rogers once, in that if we think that trade was a little sketchy (more than a little?), then I can only imagine what would be discussed if we dropped Thielbar, Pagan, and Duffy for a bunch of minor leaguers.  That would be one gamble that had REALLY better work, or we all know what would hit the fan.  Not to mention how it would close out the San Diego trade (I didn't say anyone's name) with Paddock and Pagan both gone, albeit for different reasons.  

My personal belief is that if Christmas can come in July in half this countries sales, why can't the July trade deadline come in June and start the bidding early on a couple of names we think might be on the market eventually anyway? Who says we have to wait for the rush hour on trades?  The early bird..................

Again, Happy Birthday!!

Absolutely agree that the front office should be on the phone continually.  We have plenty of 2B and DH candidates to spare for a modestly good pitcher (or better).

[Mark G]

38 minutes ago, Trov said:

I would point out that had there not been a terrible throw from first base in Smith's inning he would have got out of the inning without giving up a run.  The official scoring had it a hit with an error, and then the run turned to earn runs when the next guy hit a weak hit, but had Miranda made a good throw, like Torkelson on similar play later in game made, then we get out of inning without a run allowed.  When you give teams extra outs, even when ruled hits, you will give up more runs.

I do agree we are not dominate pen, but Rocco and company has a plan, and part of that is not to overuse the top guys or overuse starters.  They plan out days in advance of who would be coming in and when normally.  Of course plans adjust on the fly but they are working their process.  Now, hopefully that gets us to playoffs, then throw that damn plan out the window in my opinion. 

This reminds me of what a supervisor of mine said to me many years ago when things weren't going so well.  He scowled and said "we have to have a plan.....we HAVE to have a plan.....I don't even care if it's a GOOD plan!"  And off he went.    

Point being, yes Rocco has a plan.  That plan is a rotating use of 3-6 pitchers a game, all 162 games, depending on how the starter is doing that day.  And when the starter doesn't do so well it can be more than 6.  He uses the BP anywhere from 40 - 50% of the time, counting on the shuttle bus to and from St. Paul to keep arms fresh.  And as long as we continue to play teams below the .400 winning percentage line, it will keep us in the hunt, but considering we STILL have only played 8 games against teams that are over .500 (and are 2-6 against them), there is no way to know if it will hold up for another 113 games.  Yes, there is a plan.........but is it a good plan?  Stay tuned.

 

[DJL44]

14 hours ago, The Mad King said:

Currently in feeling like (apart from Ryan & Duran) the entire pitching staff is getting by with smoke & mirrors. Over achieving. 

One thing that has helped is improved defense, especially infield defense. That is sustainable. Arraez is a 20 run improvement over Sano at 1B. Urshela and Correa are both better than the players they replaced. Celestino has been very good. This pitching staff should overperform because the Twins have an above average defense for the first time in years.