Week in Review: Wearing Thin

[Nick Nelson]

The Twins are in the middle of a lengthy run of games with no breaks. They've been taking some hits. They remain in first place by a healthy margin.

Now, the going's about to get rough.

Last Week's Game Results:

Game 42 | MIN 5, DET 4: Urshela Walks It Off Again
Game 43 | MIN 2, DET 0: Gray Dominates in Shutout Victory
Game 44 | DET 4, MIN 2: Offense Goes Cold, No Sweep
Game 45 | KC 3, MIN 2: Bullpen and Bats Fall Short
Game 46 | MIN 10, KC 7: Polanco, Correa Provide Power
Game 46 | KC 7, MIN 3: Archer Hits a Wall Against Royals
Game 47 | MIN 7, KC 3: Twins Split Behind Gray's Win

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 5/23 through Sun, 5/29
***
Record Last Week: 4-3 (Overall: 29-19)
Run Differential Last Week: +3 (Overall: +34)
Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (5.0 GA)

NEWS & NOTES

On Sunday, Royce Lewis was recalled from Triple-A, with José Miranda going down. Lewis started in center field. The first couple balls in play came his way, and he fielded them flawlessly. Then, he made a great play running into the wall and hurt his surgically repaired knee, which basically sounds like a worst case scenario.

As of Sunday night, Lewis was diagnosed with a bone bruise. We'll learn more in the coming week, but he's going on the injured list.

The Twins bullpen has seen a constant flow of churn, which is not exactly out of character for the Twins front office, but still exhausting to keep up with. 

The past week saw Danny Coulombe activated from the injured list and then placed back on it after aggravating a hip injury in his first appearance. Yennier Canó was optioned to Triple-A in the wake of another ugly outing Friday that left his ERA at 13.50. 

Juan Minaya and Jovani Moran, who both factored into the second-half bullpen mix last year, have been called up as reinforcements. Veteran reliever Hunter Wood was signed to a minor-league contract and will have a chance to make his case at St. Paul for another big-league shot. Coming back from elbow surgery, he has a 3.34 ERA in 91 ⅔ big-league innings. 

The Twins are digging deeper than ever into their reliever depth. With Coulombe, Cody Stashak, Josh Winder, and Jorge Alcala all sidelined, they need some guys to step up.

In the rotation, Joe Ryan missed his scheduled start on Thursday due to COVID, so Devin Smeltzer was called up for another spot start. Smeltzer delivered once again with seven shutout innings. He'll get another turn in Tuesday's upcoming doubleheader.

Elsewhere in the system, pitching prospect Chris Vallimont – designated for assignment the previous week – was claimed off waivers by Baltimore. Gilberto Celestino went on the COVID list two days after Ryan. Max Kepler left Saturday';s game with right quad tightness, although it looks like he'll avoid the IL

HIGHLIGHTS

The Twins are getting everything they could've possibly hoped for out of Sonny Gray thus far. He delivered his finest outing yet on Tuesday, striking out 10 Tigers over seven shutout innings to spearhead a 2-0 victory. He followed with six innings of one-run ball on Sunday against Kansas City, fanning four with no walks. He exited the game with pectoral soreness.

Hopefully it's no big issue, because Gray is becoming exactly what the Twins need him to be: an ace. He's shutting down opposing lineups and going deep, with a clear level of confidence.

Gray has been dominating. Of course, he's also been doing so against some pretty weak lineups, with a slate of opponents this month that has included Oakland (twice), Cleveland, Detroit, and Kansas City. We'll get a better idea of his potential playoff mettle when the schedule steepens in June. His next scheduled start is the opener of the Blue Jays series, against a high-powered offense on the road.

Luis Arraez continues to key the lineup with remarkably consistent production. He ran his hitting streak to nine games last week, starting everyday and going 12-for-27 with four walks. His on-base percentage sits at .456 on the season, making him an ideal asset at the top of the order. 

Arraez has also looked surprisingly adept at first base – a position he has now firmly taken over for this team. It's an unexpectedly favorable scenario because it both addresses a key need on the field for the Twins, and also largely hides Arraez's defensive deficiencies. He's not a world-beater at first but he's completely fine there, and it's been huge for the team. 

Other standout performances from the past week included:

• Gio Urshela opening the week with a walk-off hit and ending it with a three-run blast on Sunday.  He had a couple of three-hit games, and continued to make impressive plays at third base, providing a steady veteran presence at the hot corner.
• Trevor Larnach was a flat-out dominant force, going 9-for-16 with four homers and eight RBIs. He's a crucial cog in the offense right now.
• Dylan Bundy took care of business against Detroit on Wednesday, holding the Tigers to one run over 5 ⅔ innings. He struck out six and walked one. Since giving up nine earned runs in Baltimore on May 4th and going on the COVID list almost immediately after, Bundy has allowed just that one run over 8 ⅔ innings in two starts. Unfortunately, the Twins wasted his quality effort on Wednesday with a bullpen hiccup and lack of offensive support, just as they did with Smeltzer the following day.
• Carlos Correa finished 10-for-32 with two doubles and a homer. He doesn't appear hampered by the finger injury that sidelined him, and is starting to show flashes of his potential with an OPS steadily on the rise. It still feels like we're due for a true breakout hot streak from Correa, and it'd be really nice if that coincided with the upcoming run of tough opponents.

LOWLIGHTS

Byron Buxton went from red-hot to ice-old quicker than Minnesota temps in September. The center fielder saw his hitless streak stretch to 30 at-bats as he started the week 0-for-17 before legging out an infield single late in Friday's game then notching a couple hits over the weekend.

The struggles lowered Buxton's average briefly below .200 and he now sits with a .205/.287/.512 slash line on then season – still well above average thanks to his ridiculous power-hitting display early on. 

In baseball it's pretty standard for cold streaks to counteract hot streaks in the endless dance toward equilibrium, and Buxton's slump seems like a somewhat extreme version of this. He isn't striking out a ton, nor producing terrible contact. Buxton's six-game hitless spell was driven by a high degree of bad luck and happenstance.

Then again, he's also clearly playing through lingering discomfort and physical limitation while on the field. You can see it in his mannerisms as he pulls into second on a double, and you have to believe it's affecting his results. For now, the Twins seem intent to stick with their plan of giving him routine days off and avoiding the injured list.

Minnesota's offense has been quite good, in relative terms, but like many around the league this year, they've been prone to lengthy periods of quietude. Buxton's slump is certainly a big ingredient in that, but Ryan Jeffers also taking a plunge (1-for-14 last week) has also factored. Various players throughout the lineup – even those who've generally been playing well – have been coming up short in a lot of key RISP spots lately. On multiple occasions the Twins loaded the bases with no outs in key moments, and came away empty.

That, combined with some emerging warts in the bullpen, caused the Twins to lose some of the close games that were previously going their way.

Tyler Duffey easily had the team's worst Win Probability Added of the week, as he single-handedly coughed up Thursday's contest by turning a 2-0 lead into a 3-2 deficit. The costly clunker was similar to Duffey's season debut, in that he came in with a clean frame and a lead, and ended up with an L. 

It bears noting that Duffey seemed to be righting the ship – between those two appearances, he had a 2.76 ERA with six holds and a save in 16 outings – but the right-hander is plainly bringing sub-par stuff. Even when he succeeds, it doesn't have sustainable underpinnings. His fastballs are 91-MPH cookies. Even the bread-and-butter breaking ball that fueled Duffey's emergence as a reliever isn't doing what it used to.

TRENDING STORYLINE

On Saturday night, with Max Kepler facing a potential IL stint following his exit with right leg tightness, I pondered whether Lewis or Alex Kirilloff would get the call to fill his roster spot. It turns out Kepler avoided the injured list, but Lewis was called up anyway, and he ended up on IL in a wild turn of events.

So now... Kirilloff has got to be coming up. Right?

LOOKING AHEAD

The Twins are in the thick of it right now. They're amidst a stretch of 18 games in 17 days, including an upcoming scheduled doubleheader on Tuesday. This is going to be a hell of a week.

Granted, the Twins open with five games against a Tigers team they have mostly handled. But they're on the road, and five games in four days presents many challenges no matter whom the opponent. 

Far from getting any respite after this sprint, the Twins head straight to Toronto for three games against a very good Blue Jays team. This opens a run of three straight series against the top three teams in the AL East.

They did a solid job against an extended run against cushy competition, but now the Twins are going to see their mettle put to the test. We're scheduled to see an old friend next Saturday.

MONDAY, 5/30: TWINS @ TIGERS – RHP Dylan Bundy v. RHP Beau Brieske
TUESDAY, 5/31 (1): TWINS @ TIGERS – LHP Devin Smeltzer v. RHP Rony Garcia
TUESDAY, 5/31 (2): TWINS @ TIGERS – TBD v. TBD
WEDNESDAY, 6/1: TWINS @ TIGERS – RHP Bailey Ober v. LHP Tarik Skubal
THURSDAY, 6/2: TWINS @ TIGERS – RHP Chris Archer v. RHP Alex Faedo
FRIDAY, 6/3: TWINS @ BLUE JAYS – RHP Sonny Gray v. LHP Yusei Kikuchi
SATURDAY, 6/4: TWINS @ BLUE JAYS – RHP Dylan Bundy v. RHP Jose Berríos
SUNDAY, 6/5: TWINS @ BLUE JAYS – TBD v. RHP Kevin Gausman

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[rwilfong86]

Hopefully Sonny is okay, pitched a gem yesterday and was hoping he could have went another inning at least to rest the bullpen.

[mikelink45]

I enjoy these summaries.  When I see Kepler avoids the IL but then doesn't play it raises a question for me.  Would it be better to IL him if he has to rest a few games to keep an active player on the roster instead?

Your observations about Buxton were accurate coming through last week - what are your prognostications for next week?  

Thank goodness, for Gordon.  He jumps in when needed and is really delivering from his bench spot.

Let's hope they bring up another starter if Ryan is down.  No BP games, the BP is already wearing down and I do not want to see them fill a nine inning game.  I worry about Duffey and his downward trend, Pagan and his tightrope walk, and just about anyone but Duran.  Even Joe Smith looked human last week.  

[wsnydes]

Another good recap, Nick.  It was a pretty busy week too.  

Hopefully Lewis has a shortish stint on the IL and Gray doesn't need one at all.

[Doctor Gast]

I have no idea why they wanted to put Lewis in the OF. With Buxton, Kepler, Larnach, Gordon, Garlic with Celestino and Kiriloff soon returning. We haven't been this strong in the OF for an awfully long time. We are at the point where we are wondering what to do with all of them. I'm sure part of the reasons for removing Araez from the OF was his knees so why do they want to put Lewis out there to risk his knees? Lewis was all excited to play CF, he more or less said he enjoyed living dangerously. Lewis is young but management should have known better to expose Lewis to this unneccessary risk.

I was against sending down Lewis down to AAA. Lewis was hot and was a spark plug to the club. He would learn more along side Correa than at AAA. He was familar to 3B and could learn 2B & 1B on the fly (Lewis is a quick learner and determined young man) where he could platoon Arraez at 1B and have plenty of ABs subbing Correa (who just came off of the IL), Polanco (who's dealing w/ sore ankles) and Urshella.

While at AAA he didn't play any 2B or 1B where they should have focused on. But on SS & 3B  where he's very familar with  and OF where he's somewhat familar with and had no business being there. The Twins were facing a RHP so why did they start RH hitting Lewis and not LH hitting Gordon. Plus Gordon needs the playing time and he's more experienced there. All this makes no sense to me why management was so irresponsible in this case. Hope they wake up before they destroy this young man's MLB career!

[JDubs]

When people were howling about Lewis being sent down, one of the retorts was "do you want a guy with a surgically-repaired knee running all over the outfield, potentially running into walls?" and sure enough, he doesn't even get through a full game in center before he injures the knee. Here's hoping it was nothing too serious, but it is worth noting there aren't any walls in the infield in St. Paul.

[RedneckRay]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

I have no idea why they wanted to put Lewis in the OF. With Buxton, Kepler, Larnach, Gordon, Garlic with Celestino and Kiriloff soon returning. We haven't been this strong in the OF for an awfully long time. We are at the point where we are wondering what to do with all of them. I'm sure part of the reasons for removing Araez from the OF was his knees so why do they want to put Lewis out there to risk his knees? Lewis was all excited to play CF, he more or less said he enjoyed living dangerously. Lewis is young but management should have known better to expose Lewis to this unneccessary risk.

I was against sending down Lewis down to AAA. Lewis was hot and was a spark plug to the club. He would learn more along side Correa than at AAA. He was familar to 3B and could learn 2B & 1B on the fly (Lewis is a quick learner and determined young man) where he could platoon Arraez at 1B and have plenty of ABs subbing Correa (who just came off of the IL), Polanco (who's dealing w/ sore ankles) and Urshella.

While at AAA he didn't play any 2B or 1B where they should have focused on. But on SS & 3B  where he's very familar with  and OF where he's somewhat familar with and had no business being there. The Twins were facing a RHP so why did they start RH hitting Lewis and not LH hitting Gordon. Plus Gordon needs the playing time and he's more experienced there. All this makes no sense to me why management was so irresponsible in this case. Hope they wake up before they destroy this young man's MLB career!

Is this sarcastic I hope? Lewis has been so hyped up, came up and delivered in his first stint, and you want to start Gordon over him? He will not be an OFer for his full career, even though he has the skill set to do so. You don’t keep a guy that has shown he is capable of producing in the MLB in AAA on a team with a overall subpar offense. Correa obviously isn’t getting bumped off SS, Urshela has played platinum glove D at 3rd, and there’s not enough consistent starts at 2B. This leaves the Twins to play him in the outfield. It definitely won’t cause his career to be “ruined,” as you claim. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Thank you for an excellent summary of a crazy week, during which the Twinkies kept grinding out victories.(mostly).

[roger]

Thanks for another enjoyable read.  Am elated this morning to learn that Keps is not going on the IL and Lewis shouldn’t be out for the year.

Curious that no one is talking about the fact that several, is it as many as five, players will not be going to Toronto because they are not vaccinated.  Souhan wrote this morning that it includes one front line pitcher and a middle of the order bat.  Will the Twins get swept because they are so shothanded?

[Possumlad]

29 minutes ago, roger said:

Thanks for another enjoyable read.  Am elated this morning to learn that Keps is not going on the IL and Lewis shouldn’t be out for the year.

Curious that no one is talking about the fact that several, is it as many as five, players will not be going to Toronto because they are not vaccinated.  Souhan wrote this morning that it includes one front line pitcher and a middle of the order bat.  Will the Twins get swept because they are so shothanded?

Not really much to talk about; is what it is. I think we've all collectively had our fair share of COVID and Vax conversations over the past 2+ years. Not worth more energy or ink at this point. 

[FlyingFinn]

38 minutes ago, RedneckRay said:

He will not be an OFer for his full career,

A couple more plays like that in the OF and he won't have a career in the IF either..................

[PDX Twin]

Lots of question marks on the roster right now. And vaccination status must be playing a role in how the team reacts. There are apparently several (unnamed) unvaccinated players who won't go to Canada anyway. The team knows whom they will be missing, but we (I) don't.

So, in Kepler's case, if he is not vaccinated he would miss three days there anyway and maybe they would go ahead and put him on the IL. If he is vaccinated but other outfielders are not, then they have to hope that he will be available in Canada since they will be short-handed already and maybe don't put him on the IL, playing shorthanded in Detroit in hopes of being less shorthanded in Toronto.

[Game7-91]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I have no idea why they wanted to put Lewis in the OF.

I double that question. Gordon was the obvious option Sunday. Raises further question for Kiriloff. Other options are emerging for Twins....Arraez is supported by Rocco at 1B, Celestino is emerging as genuine player, Larnach seems to be figuring things out, Kepler shows signs of life, Steer, Miranda, Martin knocking on the IF door....if reporting on Kiriloff's injury status is true, no further surgery needed on wrist, does he just need to figure out how to adapt? Maybe the competition will prod for him. All that said, I hope the wrist is not a serious long term injury concern. He looks to have great career potential. But the Twins are developing depth and legit options. I dont see any position guaranteed for him, at least not today.

34 minutes ago, RedneckRay said:

Correa obviously isn’t getting bumped off SS

Provactive proposition of the week: Assuming Lewis is good to go by July 4th, should not the Twins take offers on Correa? Regardless of standings.  Lewis showed enough to give us hope that he is the future at SS . Twins are not legit WS contenders this year. If they were, then holding Correa would make sense. For 2-3 months of Correa at about 15M, somebody would more than likely pay a high level pitching prospect. Twins should explore trade possibilities, and if something emerges that makes sense to build SP or BP for 2023 and beyond, then make the trade, and let the Lewis era begin at SS....assuming, he is not dealing with a longer term situation with his knee.

[RJA]

I know that injuries are not up this year compared to last around the MLB (average days out is longer however), but it sure feels like the injuries are hitting teams harder this year.  Maybe it has to do with who is being hurt rather than the numbers.  It seems the Twins, White Sox, and Tigers have all been especially banged up this year.

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, RedneckRay said:

Is this sarcastic I hope? Lewis has been so hyped up, came up and delivered in his first stint, and you want to start Gordon over him? He will not be an OFer for his full career, even though he has the skill set to do so. You don’t keep a guy that has shown he is capable of producing in the MLB in AAA on a team with a overall subpar offense. Correa obviously isn’t getting bumped off SS, Urshela has played platinum glove D at 3rd, and there’s not enough consistent starts at 2B. This leaves the Twins to play him in the outfield. It definitely won’t cause his career to be “ruined,” as you claim. 

If you read carefully, I said nothing about bumping anyone from their positions. I can't help if you can't see the depth we have in the OF. Yes, Lewis could very likely out play most of our OFers but is it a good idea to put Lewis to risk completely bang up his knee. Don't you think a completely shot knee could ruin his career? What are you thinking?

While playing INF IMO is less risk (that's partial why they remove Arraez from the OF, that plus he wasn't that good). I'm not saying Lewis to replace anyone in the INF eventhough he'd make a better 1B than Arraez. Every one needs a rest from time to time and Lewis would be our best replacement at any INF position for that and fill in if there's any injury. Arraez is learning 1B on the fly, Lewis can do it faster & better as well as 2B

[RedneckRay]

30 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I'm not saying Lewis to replace anyone in the INF eventhough he'd make a better 1B than Arraez. Every one needs a rest from time to time and Lewis would be our best replacement at any INF position for that and fill in if there's any injury.

Lewis needs regular playing time. This probably gets him 3 starts a week, which just isn’t enough for him

[Doctor Gast]

21 minutes ago, RedneckRay said:

Lewis needs regular playing time. This probably gets him 3 starts a week, which just isn’t enough for him

He will get enough playing, after not playing for 2yrs. you can't expect him to even come close to every day playing time. But it'll be nice to have him strong at post season

[tarheeltwinsfan]

3 hours ago, Game7-91 said:

I double that question. Gordon was the obvious option Sunday. Raises further question for Kiriloff. Other options are emerging for Twins....Arraez is supported by Rocco at 1B, Celestino is emerging as genuine player, Larnach seems to be figuring things out, Kepler shows signs of life, Steer, Miranda, Martin knocking on the IF door....if reporting on Kiriloff's injury status is true, no further surgery needed on wrist, does he just need to figure out how to adapt? Maybe the competition will prod for him. All that said, I hope the wrist is not a serious long term injury concern. He looks to have great career potential. But the Twins are developing depth and legit options. I dont see any position guaranteed for him, at least not today.

Provactive proposition of the week: Assuming Lewis is good to go by July 4th, should not the Twins take offers on Correa? Regardless of standings.  Lewis showed enough to give us hope that he is the future at SS . Twins are not legit WS contenders this year. If they were, then holding Correa would make sense. For 2-3 months of Correa at about 15M, somebody would more than likely pay a high level pitching prospect. Twins should explore trade possibilities, and if something emerges that makes sense to build SP or BP for 2023 and beyond, then make the trade, and let the Lewis era begin at SS....assuming, he is not dealing with a longer term situation with his knee.

While I understand your point, I cannot agree to trade Correa if the Twins are still in the lead in the AL Central, or even close to leading the AL Central

, then the Twins cannot weaken the 2022 team, by trading Correa for players to help in the future seasons, but not in 2022.

 

[HerbieFan]

SO, SO many positives just past the quarter pole of the season.  The biggest head scratcher to me is how you organization-wide preach R&R and manage pitchers work loads.....yet have SO many injuries.  Something doesn't add up.

[Aerodeliria]

Thanks for this very thorough update.

I'm going to post my beef about Baldelli's use of Archer (and 'no, just because I complain about Baldelli's bullpen use, doesn't mean I hate the guy).

The way Archer is being used must be demoralizing to the guy. He starts games as a part of the regular rotation and he has never been allowed to go more than four innings even when he has pitched well (even when his pitch total is fewer than 80 pitches). Under the current management, this means he has no-zero-zip-nada opportunities to get a W, and despite the purist goals of taking games for the team, pitchers still have their pride, and this is reflected getting Ws for the team.

[wsnydes]

21 hours ago, Game7-91 said:

Lewis is good to go by July 4th, should not the Twins take offers on Correa? Regardless of standings.  Lewis showed enough to give us hope that he is the future at SS . Twins are not legit WS contenders this year. If they were, then holding Correa would make sense. For 2-3 months of Correa at about 15M, somebody would more than likely pay a high level pitching prospect. Twins should explore trade possibilities, and if something emerges that makes sense to build SP or BP for 2023 and beyond, then make the trade, and let the Lewis era begin at SS....assuming, he is not dealing with a longer term situation with his knee.

 

18 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

While I understand your point, I cannot agree to trade Correa if the Twins are still in the lead in the AL Central, or even close to leading the AL Central

, then the Twins cannot weaken the 2022 team, by trading Correa for players to help in the future seasons, but not in 2022.

 

Before this goes further and hijacks the thread, I'll point you here where this topic is already being discussed.