Belief in Starting Duo Paying Off

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins went into the offseason needing to revamp a starting rotation that had lost both of its top arms and needed a significant talent infusion. When the dust settled it appeared that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine were fine leaning heavily on Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober. Turns out, they look right.

 

Last season Bailey Ober made his Major League debut starting 20 games for a bad Twins team. A 12th-round pick in 2017 and never a top prospect, Ober performed well above his expected water level. The 4.19 ERA wasn’t earth-shattering, but it came with over a strikeout per inning, and if he was able to be just a bit more stingy with the longball, another step forward could be taken.

Despite a brief stint on the injured list this season, Ober has now made five starts and owns a 2.55 ERA. His 3.26 FIP suggests he’s not pitching much over his head, and while the strikeouts have tailed off a bit, he’s allowing just 0.7 HR/9 and has cut the H/9 down by one to 8.0.

In an age where velocity reigns supreme, Ober is doing it with a fastball that averages just 92 mph. Of course, the fact that he’s 6’9” and basically putting the ball across the plate out of his hand doesn’t help opposing hitters to sit on his pitches. The step forward is also evident in the peripherals. Ober is allowing 5% less hard contact this season, dropping the hard-hit rate against him down to 32%. Both his xFIP and xERA are hovering in the 4’s, but his whiff and chase rates are both slightly up from where they were last season.

It’s a small sample size thus far in 2022, but the body of work is starting to become substantial. The thought on Ober was that he’d provide Minnesota great depth if pushed to Triple-A. Instead, he was tabbed as a rotation mainstay from the get-go and has continued to look the part of found money when it comes to projecting prospects.

On the flip side, Joe Ryan has been a top-100 prospect after being drafted in the 7th round of the 2018 Major League Baseball draft. It will forever be mind-boggling that Minnesota wrangled him from the Rays in exchange for a few months of an aging Nelson Cruz, but here we are.

Ryan’s debut was extremely limited last season. He made five starts down the stretch and posted a 4.05 ERA. The 3.43 FIP suggested more was there and the 10.1 K/9 was hard not to get excited about. If Ober’s numbers were small and tough to get behind, however, then Ryan’s were minuscule.

Instead of hedging their bets, Minnesota named Ryan their Opening Day starter even after acquiring potential ace Sonny Gray. Now eight starts into his 2022 campaign, Ryan may be the frontrunner for the 2022 American League Rookie of the Year award. He has a dazzling 2.28 ERA and is still sitting strong with an 8.7 K/9. Maybe being helped by the deadened baseball, his 0.6 HR/9 is more than halved from what it was a season ago, but the 3.24 FIP suggests his stuff is as good as advertised.

Like Ober, Ryan doesn’t pump velocity on his fastball. Averaging just 92.4 mph on the pitch, which is a one mph jump from 2022, his ability to spin the pitch and get movement is where the success comes from. Minnesota has gotten Ryan into a more slider-focused repertoire this season, pushing roughly 10% of the fastball usage to his newly featured offering. The results haven’t produced a shift in chase rate or whiff rate, but they’ve helped to hold the status quo on what were already impressive results.

Admittedly we’re still early in the 2022 season. The combined total here is just 13 starts. Knowing the rotation needed to be reconfigured though, both Ober and Ryan were immediately penciled in as key pieces and that may have seemed like a leap. The Twins' front office seemingly knew what they had, however, and the developmental path for both arms continues to remain strong.

 

View full article

[mikelink45]

I think Ryan and Ober have really passed the test to date, the key will be getting through July/August.  I am excited to have them in the rotation and wish Winder was still available.  

One more thought about pitchers and W-L.  If starting pitchers are only going 4 innings it is time to replace the rule that a pitcher has to go 5 innings to get a win.  We are now in an era of BP games even when it isn't designated as such.  Time to give the win to the pitcher who holds the other team down when his team goes ahead, no matter the innings pitched.

[TwinsDr2021]

22 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I think Ryan and Ober have really passed the test to date, the key will be getting through July/August.  I am excited to have them in the rotation and wish Winder was still available.  

One more thought about pitchers and W-L.  If starting pitchers are only going 4 innings it is time to replace the rule that a pitcher has to go 5 innings to get a win.  We are now in an era of BP games even when it isn't designated as such.  Time to give the win to the pitcher who holds the other team down when his team goes ahead, no matter the innings pitched.

I like both guys, Ryan seems like he will end up a better pitcher. Ober has gone 6 innings in 3 of his career 25 starts. He seems like the perfect guy to piggy back with Archer.

I disagree with your take on wins. I throw up a little in mouth thinking Archer could have as many wins as a starting pitcher that averages close to twice as many innings as him (for example).

[Whitey333]

Both are doing great.  Let's see if it holds up when they play real baseball teams.  I think they will do decent but not overwhelming against the top teams.  I like them both.  I think they can be the anchors of twins starters for years 

[Doctor Gast]

Falvey has had a lot of experience there, Levine has had a lot of credit but just curious how has Levine contributed to this success? I think too much credit has been given to him.

[PopRiveter]

I was truly confused by the FO planning to rely on these two as part of their Plan A. As of right now, it looks like they saw and correctly evaluated both player's talent and readiness. I'm thoroughly impressed.

[wsnydes]

I like what I've seen from both in their short careers thus far.  I am worried that they'll hit a wall in August, but hopefully that 6 man rotation helps avoid that.  Each having IL stints should help as well.  They both look like good pieces to a rotation though.

[jmlease1]

I've been a big Joe Ryan guy ever since we acquired him. I like the fact that he throws a little differently than other starters, I like how he seems completely unruffled by anything on the mound, and I love how his off-speed pitches are better than advertised. 

Ober is doing very well too, and if he's able to stay healthy and keep all of him limbs moving the right way in something resembling harmony than he's another terrific asset who is a bit different than a lot of other starters. I'm a little more concerned about his ability to stay healthy and go deeper into games (would rather not have him max out as a 5 and fly guy), but he's still looking like a starter to be counted on.

Both of these guys have something different in their delivery that makes them tougher to hit against. I love having that in a pitcher. All the video in the world can't prepare you for when a pitch is there faster than your brain says it should be, or makes you think it's rising up in the zone, etc. And unless a lot of other pitchers suddenly can replicate that (unlikely) then hitters just aren't going to see them frequently enough to adjust easily.

[h2oface]

Well, right for 3 months. Do you remember Scott Diamond? I do.

High Hopes, though, especially for Ryan.

[The Mad King]

Me(off season): we can't expect Ryan to pitch the way he did in 2021. 

Ryan (2022): hold my beer....