Deadline Trade of Correa

[Possumlad]

4 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Which team? Not the Dodgers. Not the Yankees (they didn't sign him, traded for IKF). He's not re-signing in Milwaukee. Certainly not Houston. Atlanta? Nope. The Mets....who would you even want?

Go look at the best teams, all of whom passed on signing him, and their farm systems, and tell me who would even trade for him, after not signing him only for money.

Fair point as I said above. Maybe I'm starting with a flawed assumption about the return we'd get.

And to be clear I'd love if we signed Correa to a long-term deal. Seems extremely unlikely given our history, but maybe I'm wrong there too. But it would be a bummer if he played out his final 3 months, we got nothing in return, and he signed a big extension elsewhere. But hey, it could be worse. We could have not signed him in the first place

[2wins87]

On 5/24/2022 at 11:09 AM, farmerguychris said:

Thoughts?

Nah.

[wsnydes]

27 minutes ago, Possumlad said:

Strongly disagree. They need to either extend him prior to the deadline or trade him. They'd be absolutely nuts not to trade him IF they don't expect him back next year. 

Laying it out this way helps clarify the decision: 

What would you rather have? 

1) 3 months (at most) of Carlos Correa 

or 

2) Whatever haul of big-time big leaguers & prospects you'd get for him 

No competent front office in the league would choose the former. Again this is IF they don't expect him back next year. If they plan to extend him, hang on to him for sure.

Why would he sign an extension if he's already got two option years left at $35M each?  Ride those two years out and he hits free agency again at age 31.  He can still sign a hefty contract at that age.  If he doesn't like that, he can simply opt out and shop the market for a better deal.

[chpettit19]

20 minutes ago, Possumlad said:

Fair point as I said above. Maybe I'm starting with a flawed assumption about the return we'd get.

And to be clear I'd love if we signed Correa to a long-term deal. Seems extremely unlikely given our history, but maybe I'm wrong there too. But it would be a bummer if he played out his final 3 months, we got nothing in return, and he signed a big extension elsewhere. But hey, it could be worse. We could have not signed him in the first place

Yeah, I think your assumption that they'd get anything massive in return is probably flawed. Recent trades of rental players have returned, at best, 1 prospect in the 75-115 range of global prospects and some filler here and there. I'd take 3 months of CC over 1 prospect that wouldn't even be top 5 in the Twins system most likely.

[Squirrel]

47 minutes ago, Possumlad said:

Strongly disagree. They need to either extend him prior to the deadline or trade him. They'd be absolutely nuts not to trade him IF they don't expect him back next year. 

Laying it out this way helps clarify the decision: 

What would you rather have? 

1) 3 months (at most) of Carlos Correa 

or 

2) Whatever haul of big-time big leaguers & prospects you'd get for him 

No competent front office in the league would choose the former. Again this is IF they don't expect him back next year. If they plan to extend him, hang on to him for sure.

No. 1. Because you just aren’t going to get a haul for him. He’s worth it but teams are NOT going to give you what you think. Not for a rental. 

[Possumlad]

9 minutes ago, wsnydes said:

Why would he sign an extension if he's already got two option years left at $35M each?  Ride those two years out and he hits free agency again at age 31.  He can still sign a hefty contract at that age.  If he doesn't like that, he can simply opt out and shop the market for a better deal.

Unless he gets hurt or falls off a cliff in the 2nd half, I think it's extremely unlikely that he plays beyond 1 year under the current deal. The option years are in there to protect him in case he's injured or underperforms, really nothing more. 

He'll look for an extension for the same reason players always do: short deals are very risky. Bad injury during a 1 or 2 year deal and your market value takes a nosedive. Assuming he stays healthy & plays well, he'll be looking for his 7-10 year deal after this year.

[Reptevia]

I’m happy to learn the Twins are back in the playoffs!  Whoo-Hoo!  I didn’t realize other teams could be mathematically eliminated in May, but Whoo-Hoo!  By his own account, Correa wants to stay here on a longer contract. It’s been very difficult to get ANY top FA to come to MN. I say keep him as long as he wants to stay. 

[wsnydes]

5 minutes ago, Possumlad said:

Unless he gets hurt or falls off a cliff in the 2nd half, I think it's extremely unlikely that he plays beyond 1 year under the current deal. The option years are in there to protect him in case he's injured or underperforms, really nothing more. 

He'll look for an extension for the same reason players always do: short deals are very risky. Bad injury during a 1 or 2 year deal and your market value takes a nosedive. Assuming he stays healthy & plays well, he'll be looking for his 7-10 year deal after this year.

I agree that he's likely to opt out, but that still doesn't explain why he would sign an extension without hitting the market.  He's holding the cards here.  Signing an extension negates his leverage.  If he's hurt, he's still got the option years to regroup.  If he's healthy, he opts out and takes advantage of the market.  He's in his prime, so an extension is exceedingly unlikely.  Especially with Boras as his agent.  He'll shop the market.  

The trend has been to sign short term high AAV contracts of late.  Signing a 28 year old at $35M plus for 7-10 years goes against that.  Especially for a guy that gets dinged up as Correa does.  

[nicksaviking]

16 minutes ago, Possumlad said:

Unless he gets hurt or falls off a cliff in the 2nd half, I think it's extremely unlikely that he plays beyond 1 year under the current deal. The option years are in there to protect him in case he's injured or underperforms, really nothing more. 

He'll look for an extension for the same reason players always do: short deals are very risky. Bad injury during a 1 or 2 year deal and your market value takes a nosedive. Assuming he stays healthy & plays well, he'll be looking for his 7-10 year deal after this year.

He likely would be the third best shortstop on the free agent market next year. There's a pretty reasonable chance he's going to see another 35M one year payday as the preferable option since he may have the SS market all to himself in the following offseason.

[Possumlad]

Just now, wsnydes said:

I agree that he's likely to opt out, but that still doesn't explain why he would sign an extension without hitting the market.  He's holding the cards here.  Signing an extension negates his leverage.  If he's hurt, he's still got the option years to regroup.  If he's healthy, he opts out and takes advantage of the market.  He's in his prime, so an extension is exceedingly unlikely.  Especially with Boras as his agent.  He'll shop the market.  

The trend has been to sign short term high AAV contracts of late.  Signing a 28 year old at $35M plus for 7-10 years goes against that.  Especially for a guy that gets dinged up as Correa does.  

Oh got it - I just misunderstood. I agree, he's more likely to hit the market than sign an extension during the season.

[DJL44]

38 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Yeah, I think your assumption that they'd get anything massive in return is probably flawed. Recent trades of rental players have returned, at best, 1 prospect in the 75-115 range of global prospects and some filler here and there. I'd take 3 months of CC over 1 prospect that wouldn't even be top 5 in the Twins system most likely.

The flipside of this is if the Twins can acquire a rental as good as Correa for someone who isn't even in their top 5 prospects they should ABSOLUTELY do this and try to win the World Series.

[bunsen82]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

If they are a playoff team, three months of CC. And, you are 100% wrong on your last statement. Or, are you suggesting whomever they trade him to is incompetent, since they'd be acquiring him for 3 months? I mean, what can you expect to get for a guy that it is incompetent to keep?

Mike -  that is the likely difference between a small/mid market team  vs a big market teams.  Similar to the Rays we need to maximize all assets.  Otherwise you tend to have peak and bottom organizational levels as you are competing and using/losing potential assets vs continually maximizing.  There will always be teams willing to pay up to go for it all.  If you think this is the year the Twins should take their shot,  then fine.  Ultimately I don't think this is the year.  I would rather have a team and an organization that has a little more experience and a little more seasoning before going all in.   Tampa Bay has consistently been at the top by continually trading out future higher priced veterans to rebuild their pipeline.  This is not an easy decision by any means,  I would love to keep him but I think the team would want to make sure he is willing to stay with the Twins.    That likely involves a new contract.  

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, DJL44 said:

The flipside of this is if the Twins can acquire a rental as good as Correa for someone who isn't even in their top 5 prospects they should ABSOLUTELY do this and try to win the World Series.

I'm hoping to see a couple arms (pen and/or starters) added at some point. 

[Mike Sixel]

16 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

Mike -  that is the likely difference between a small/mid market team  vs a big market teams.  Similar to the Rays we need to maximize all assets.  Otherwise you tend to have peak and bottom organizational levels as you are competing and using/losing potential assets vs continually maximizing.  There will always be teams willing to pay up to go for it all.  If you think this is the year the Twins should take their shot,  then fine.  Ultimately I don't think this is the year.  I would rather have a team and an organization that has a little more experience and a little more seasoning before going all in.   Tampa Bay has consistently been at the top by continually trading out future higher priced veterans to rebuild their pipeline.  This is not an easy decision by any means,  I would love to keep him but I think the team would want to make sure he is willing to stay with the Twins.    That likely involves a new contract.  

Who is trading for him? Not an NL West team. Not the Yankees. Not the Rays or Houston. Not Milwaukee. Not the White Sox, I'd guess. Nor the Red Sox.

If you don't try to win when you have a chance, you might not have the chance again. That leaves the Mets, Angels and Cardinals among likely playoff teams. edit to add: Toronto maybe?

Which superstar did TB trade while leading their division?

[Mike Sixel]

The Angels minor league system is not good at all. So, hopefully not them.

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Who is trading for him? Not an NL West team. Not the Yankees. Not the Rays or Houston. Not Milwaukee. Not the White Sox, I'd guess. Nor the Red Sox.

If you don't try to win when you have a chance, you might not have the chance again. That leaves the Mets, Angels and Cardinals among likely playoff teams. 

Which superstar did TB trade while leading their division?

The Mets moving Lindor off SS for the rest of the year and pushing their luxury tax bill even higher? With Cohen I guess anything is possible, but I think I'd take them off the list and it's the Angels or Cardinals as options. With Xander Bogaerts likely available as well. Not exactly a SS seller's market there.

[bunsen82]

12 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Who is trading for him? Not an NL West team. Not the Yankees. Not the Rays or Houston. Not Milwaukee. Not the White Sox, I'd guess. Nor the Red Sox.

If you don't try to win when you have a chance, you might not have the chance again. That leaves the Mets, Angels and Cardinals among likely playoff teams. 

Which superstar did TB trade while leading their division?

Tampa Bay generally trades after the season from the players on their initial contracts.  When was the last time Tampa Bay signed a superstar on effectively a 1 year contract?  The closest thing they had was Morton who underperformed in 2020 then got injured and Tampa didn't want to pay him the 15 million option.  This contract due to its oddity is creating the uncertainty as to how management views it and wants to manage it.  

This is the second time someone has asked who is willing to trade.   I don't think that is the effective question.  The question is at the time the Twins are willing to trade if they are, is will anyone due to injuries, expectations  or possibly just willing to throw all caution to the wind make a splash.  For a player of Correa I think someone will offer a very good offer to entice the Twins,  I guess when you look at it from that viewpoint, the offer will have to be very good for the twins to forgo having him in the playoffs.  If the buyers are not there this whole discussion is moot.   

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

The Mets moving Lindor off SS for the rest of the year and pushing their luxury tax bill even higher? With Cohen I guess anything is possible, but I think I'd take them off the list and it's the Angels or Cardinals as options. With Xander Bogaerts likely available as well. Not exactly a SS seller's market there.

I forgot about Lindor, so no. So, um, who is trading for him?

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, bunsen82 said:

Tampa Bay generally trades after the season from the players on their initial contracts.  When was the last time Tampa Bay signed a superstar on effectively a 1 year contract?  The closest thing they had was Morton who underperformed in 2020 then got injured and Tampa didn't want to pay him the 15 million option.  This contract due to its oddity is creating the uncertainty as to how management views it and wants to manage it.  

This is the second time someone has asked who is willing to trade.   I don't think that is the effective question.  The question is at the time the Twins are willing to trade if they are, is will anyone due to injuries, expectations  or possibly just willing to throw all caution to the wind make a splash.  For a player of Correa I think someone will offer a vo entice the Tery good package,  I guess when you look at it from that viewpoint, the offer will have to be very good for the twins to forgo having him in the playoffs.  If the buyers are not there this whole discussion is moot.   

So, TB has never traded a star during the year while leading the division?

I gave you the list of likely trade partners.....who is trading for him?

[bunsen82]

5 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

So, TB has never traded a star during the year while leading the division?

I gave you the list of likely trade partners.....who is trading for him?

Right now if I were to list a pecking order Yankees (they have prospects down the line for SS, for a 2 month rental go for it all I could see them do it), Padres (especially if Tatis has a setback),  Milwaukee (they may view this as their best opportunity to go for it all),  Mets or Angels possible, it is really hard to say.  I think you are restricting the list a bit more than people who might actually be interested.   We have no clue what will happen with players whether injured or severely underperforming.  Darkhorse might be Dodgers.   They could move Trea Turner back to 2nd base for a couple months.  It is too hard to say right now.  Plus the standings may be completely different in a couple months.  

[Tim]

21 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

Right now if I were to list a pecking order Yankees (they have prospects down the line for SS, for a 2 month rental go for it all I could see them do it), Padres (especially if Tatis has a setback),  Milwaukee (they may view this as their best opportunity to go for it all),  Mets or Angels possible, it is really hard to say.  I think you are restricting the list a bit more than people who might actually be interested.   We have no clue what will happen with players whether injured or severely underperforming.  Darkhorse might be Dodgers.   They could move Trea Turner back to 2nd base for a couple months.  It is too hard to say right now.  Plus the standings may be completely different in a couple months.  

Good call here, defiantly could see them doing that with how Muncy has started the year.

Miguel Vargas (maaayybbbe), Eddys Leonard, or Nick Nastrini could be nice gets

[chpettit19]

25 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

Right now if I were to list a pecking order Yankees (they have prospects down the line for SS, for a 2 month rental go for it all I could see them do it), Padres (especially if Tatis has a setback),  Milwaukee (they may view this as their best opportunity to go for it all),  Mets or Angels possible, it is really hard to say.  I think you are restricting the list a bit more than people who might actually be interested.   We have no clue what will happen with players whether injured or severely underperforming.  Darkhorse might be Dodgers.   They could move Trea Turner back to 2nd base for a couple months.  It is too hard to say right now.  Plus the standings may be completely different in a couple months.  

Examples of recent star position players on expiring deals trades:

Manny Machado to LA: Baltimore received Yusniel Diaz (in the mid 80s for global prospects at the time), Dean Kremer, Rylan Bannon, Zach Pop and Breyvic Valera. So 1 back end of the top 100 prospect lists prospect and 4 so-so prospects.

Kris Bryant to SF: Chicago received Caleb Killian and Alexander Camargo. Neither top 100 prospects. Canario was in the 9, 10, 11 area of system prospects for the Giants and Killian was 29, 30, 31 area of system prospects.

Javy Baez to NYM: Chicago received Pete Crow-Armstrong (75-85 range for top 100 prospects). Chicago also sent swing man Trevor Williams in the deal.

Anthony Rizzo to NYY: Chicago received Alexander Vizcaino and Kevin Alcantara. Both around the 9-12 area for prospects in the Yankees system.

So the best piece anyone received was a guy in the 75-115 area of global prospects. Of the teams you listed you're looking at Joey Wiemer (Mil), Miguel Vargas (LAD), Austin Wells (NYY), Ryan Pepiot (LAD), Anthony Vargas (NYY), Alex Ramirez (NYM), James Wood (SD). The Angels don't have anyone in the top 100. They're an awful system. None of the guys they'd get in return would be better than Lewis, Martin, Miranda, Winder, Duran, or Balazovic. Is that worth it? Is 1 prospect who'd slot in somewhere in the back half of the system's top 10 be so overwhelming that the FO is willing to trade Carlos Correa in the middle of a playoff season?

[Tim]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Examples of recent star position players on expiring deals trades:

Manny Machado to LA: Baltimore received Yusniel Diaz (in the mid 80s for global prospects at the time), Dean Kremer, Rylan Bannon, Zach Pop and Breyvic Valera. So 1 back end of the top 100 prospect lists prospect and 4 so-so prospects.

Kris Bryant to SF: Chicago received Caleb Killian and Alexander Camargo. Neither top 100 prospects. Canario was in the 9, 10, 11 area of system prospects for the Giants and Killian was 29, 30, 31 area of system prospects.

Javy Baez to NYM: Chicago received Pete Crow-Armstrong (75-85 range for top 100 prospects). Chicago also sent swing man Trevor Williams in the deal.

Anthony Rizzo to NYY: Chicago received Alexander Vizcaino and Kevin Alcantara. Both around the 9-12 area for prospects in the Yankees system.

So the best piece anyone received was a guy in the 75-115 area of global prospects. OF the teams you listed you're looking at Joey Wiemer (Mil), Miguel Vargas (LAD), Austin Wells (NYY), Ryan Pepiot (LAD), Anthony Vargas (NYY), Alex Ramirez (NYM), James Wood (SD). The Angels don't have anyone in the top 100. They're an awful system. None of the guys they'd get in return would be better than Lewis, Martin, Miranda, Winder, Duran, or Balazovic. Is that worth it? Is 1 prospect who'd slot in somewhere in the back half of the system's top 10 be so overwhelming that the FO is willing to trade Carlos Correa in the middle of a playoff season?

Alright if San Diego was throwing around James Wood and the Twins were hypothetically 9-10 GB, I would do that right away. He's probably gunna be a top 50 guy towards the end of the year.

Another package I'd look to get creative with would be with the Dodgers.

I'd add a prospect like Steer/Miller + Correa for Dustin May .. Interesting concept of a deal.

In no way am i advocating for this to happen either.

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, Tim said:

Alright if San Diego was throwing around James Wood and the Twins were hypothetically 9-10 GB, I would do that right away. He's probably gunna be a top 50 guy towards the end of the year.

Another package I'd look to get creative with would be with the Dodgers.

I'd add a prospect like Steer/Miller + Correa for Dustin May .. Interesting concept of a deal.

In no way am i advocating for this to happen either.

We aren't talking about dealing him if the Twins aren't leading the division......we are talking about them trading him if they are. 

[Tim]

5 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

We aren't talking about dealing him if the Twins aren't leading the division......we are talking about them trading him if they are. 

yup ... which is exactly why I phrased my post the way it reads sir.

[bunsen82]

The haul we got for Cruz was pretty good.  If we were to get one with a slightly better 2nd prospect for Correa that would be interesting.   I guess we shouldn't have traded Cruz last year.  You never know maybe with him we get on a hot streak get to the playoffs and we could have been the Braves last year.   

[chpettit19]

34 minutes ago, Tim said:

Alright if San Diego was throwing around James Wood and the Twins were hypothetically 9-10 GB, I would do that right away. He's probably gunna be a top 50 guy towards the end of the year.

Another package I'd look to get creative with would be with the Dodgers.

I'd add a prospect like Steer/Miller + Correa for Dustin May .. Interesting concept of a deal.

In no way am i advocating for this to happen either.

If they're 9-10 back by the break/deadline they need to trade everyone. Buxton, Correa, Polanco, Kepler, Gray, Ryan, everyone. That'd mean they absolutely collapsed in epic fashion. The trade deadline could be as late as Aug 3rd. The Twins have a 5.5 game lead as of this second. They have 65 games between now and then (including today's game and the game on the 3rd). If they play 1 game under .500 in that stretch (32-33) Chicago would have to go 47-18 (that's a 72.3% winning percentage, NYY best in baseball at 69.8% right now) during the same stretch to create that 15 game difference. If that happens they need to fold up shop and contract the team.

That's kind of why so many of us are so strong on the idea that there's almost no chance he's traded since Chicago would have to go from the .500 team they currently are to a basically .750 team over the next 2 months to even have a chance at creating real separation in the division.

[baul0010]

5 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Luis Gil. 

And I'm only partly joking about that. There's actually a decent chance he'd be the best prospect they're willing to give up for a Correa rental.

Maybe we can get Donaldson back too!

[Tim]

37 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

If they're 9-10 back by the break/deadline they need to trade everyone. Buxton, Correa, Polanco, Kepler, Gray, Ryan, everyone. That'd mean they absolutely collapsed in epic fashion. The trade deadline could be as late as Aug 3rd. The Twins have a 5.5 game lead as of this second. They have 65 games between now and then (including today's game and the game on the 3rd). If they play 1 game under .500 in that stretch (32-33) Chicago would have to go 47-18 (that's a 72.3% winning percentage, NYY best in baseball at 69.8% right now) during the same stretch to create that 15 game difference. If that happens they need to fold up shop and contract the team.

That's kind of why so many of us are so strong on the idea that there's almost no chance he's traded since Chicago would have to go from the .500 team they currently are to a basically .750 team over the next 2 months to even have a chance at creating real separation in the division.

I understand how unlikely it is, I said 9-10 games back for that reason. That's the only situation (or worse) I would consider moving Correa.

Dont jinx this yet either! Team is very reminiscent of the 01 Twins to me, they started 34-17 through May .. We probably remember how that played out .. American League is really damn good. Wouldn't call anything a synch by Aug 3.

[bunsen82]

1 minute ago, Tim said:

I understand how unlikely it is, I said 9-10 games back for that reason. That's the only situation (or worse) I would consider moving Correa.

Dont jinx this yet either! Team is very reminiscent of the 01 Twins to me, they started 34-17 through May .. We probably remember how that played out .. American League is really damn good. Wouldn't call anything a synch by Aug 3.

Ignore Cheppit -  look we can all have strong opinions - there is way too many games to play and likely changes in the standings to have an answer right now.  As much as I can be fairly confident they want to trade them, I can also acknowledge they may not have a buyer willing to purchase at the prices they are willing to trade, or that the fan base as evidenced by this thread would be so upset by the trade.  Some want answers now and specifics and are not willing to let this play out.   He states players don't get good returns,  when obviously we got a good return for Cruz,  we wouldn't be where we currently are without Ryan.   Ultimately its managements decision and whether they prioritize increasing this years chances at winning a WS or maximizing the chance in the future.