Deadline Trade of Correa

[Riverbrian]

OK... I'll bite.

Let's say we trade Correa to the Yankees at the deadline.

What's the guess on what we get back? 

 

[TopGunn#22]

There's this thing called "optics.'  It's when politicians do something or say something really stupid and then try to explain it away (like inflation is Vlad Putin's fault, as if Vlad has that much control over our economy).

Trading Correa would not only be bad "optics" it would be bad baseball decision making.  The Twins have warts.  They are not a juggernaut or a complete team in any stretch of our imagination.  I believe Lewis will be back up at some time and he can play multiple positions.  Having Correa AND Lewis is a GOOD thing.  Correa may only be a one-year rental.  I hope not, but that's the type of contract the Twins FO crafted to lure him to sign with us.  It's working out quite nicely to this point.

I'm going to enjoy CC as much as I can while he's here.  He's an easy guy to cheer for and the Twins to this point of the season have been very fun to watch and cheer for.  Life is too short.  I'm going to enjoy this for what it is right now.  

[MABB1959]

I am sick of them being a prospect acquiring team.  If they are serious about putting a good product on the field to get fans to go to more games they should be figuring out how to keep him instead of planning a trade. 

[Nine of twelve]

Any and every player should be traded if the trade improves the team. That said, I don't think Correa should be shopped but there's no reason not to listen if a team makes an offer. I highly doubt that a worthwhile trade could be made.

When Correa was signed pretty much everyone knew and accepted that he would almost certainly opt out after the 2022 season. The FO (and, I think, most fans) still felt it was worth the price for one year. What would really be interesting is if he decides not to opt out.

 

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, bunsen82 said:

If Correa is willing to resign another 1 year deal with option years then yes I could see that happen, but he wants the 7-10 year mega contract. It’s the reason he switched to Boras.  Unless he likes Minnesota so much he changes course and is willing to give a discount. 

You're aware Correa is already signed for two more years, correct?

Opt outs after this year and next. I believe 5 team no trade this year full no trade next.

[tony&rodney]

Looking around baseball, St. Louis seems like the only possible landing spot for Carlos Correa. The Cardinals would not give up their best prospects. So a trade of Correa, while possible at any time, would be unlikely.

Correa lends stability to the team at this time and I don't see a trade happening. We should enjoy him. Andrelton Simmons was the best shortstop in baseball for a long time but it didn't take even two weeks to see the difference between Correa and the effects of aging on display last year.

I'm content with letting the contract play out and the Twins should be too.

[Number3]

I didn't like the signing due to the huge disparity in comp compared to the rest of the entire team and I still don't. However, trading him away during the first season with the team would only exacerbate the original decision to sign him in the first place. The obvious question would be, does this FO have any clue what they are doing? I thought Correa had already said that he absolutely loved being a Minnesota Twin. Again, I think the original signing was a desperation move and the roi is marginal at best. Chances are they would till be division leaders by a decent margin without him. Check the record when he was on the IL. Pitching pitching pitching.

[bunsen82]

14 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

You're aware Correa is already signed for two more years, correct?

Opt outs after this year and next. I believe 5 team no trade this year full no trade next.

You also do realize he switch to Boras last year and Boras has to split all earnings with the previous agent.  It is common knowledge in baseball that Correa is expected to opt out.  

The additional years were insurance for Correa due to an injury or drastic decrease in production that would have limited his value.  Look the title of that article is oddest contract and this is an odd situation.  I fully admit I would love to see them continue at this pace and them to ride it out.  I also realize this is a long season,  I think the team is slightly outperforming currently - especially thanks to facing weak competition in this stretch.  Lets wait to see what happens.  

https://sportsnaut.com/mlb-expects-carlos-correa-opt-out-of-twins-contract/#:~:text=In perhaps the oddest MLB,contract with the Minnesota Twins.

[TheLeviathan]

Yes, there is a 100% chance he opts out of this deal.  He will not continue that contract because Boras doesn't get paid.  

The team has the budget space to tear that contract up and resign him though.  And if he walks, he walks.  But you can't deal him when the team is doing this well and he's a heart and soul reason why.

[Tim]

1 hour ago, TheLeviathan said:

Yes, there is a 100% chance he opts out of this deal.  He will not continue that contract because Boras doesn't get paid.  

The team has the budget space to tear that contract up and resign him though.  And if he walks, he walks.  But you can't deal him when the team is doing this well and he's a heart and soul reason why.

I dont think Correa is opting in or out of 35 mil with his agent Scott Boars in mind.

[chpettit19]

3 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

OK... I'll bite.

Let's say we trade Correa to the Yankees at the deadline.

What's the guess on what we get back? 

 

Luis Gil. 

And I'm only partly joking about that. There's actually a decent chance he'd be the best prospect they're willing to give up for a Correa rental.

[Jerr]

Provided Correa and Twins do well and he wants to stay, PAHLEEZE keep him!

I'm old school and get tired of all these "get to know them" years as to Twins players. Can't we get some of the positions "locked in" for a couple or more years and keep winning??

[IndianaTwin]

On 5/24/2022 at 11:09 AM, farmerguychris said:

What do you think the likelihood of someone from the FO sitting down with Carlos and his agent sometime between now and the trade deadline to see if they can determine the chances that Carlos stays for at least year 2 of his deal....

I think the likelihood of having that discussion is 100 percent. It would be ludicrous not to.

 

But if I was in the FO's shoes (and that's really all any of us can definitively say), I would be very reluctant to seriously consider trading him, for many of the reasons stated here.

[nicholas Anderson]

At first I thought this was a really interesting question. Given how they were destroyed by the Dodger and Astros, A deep run in the playoffs seems unlikely.  What could they get for CC? 

I was thinking they should get back more than they got for Berrios, as Correa is better and plays every day. I was thinking if they could get two top 100 prospects then it might be something to consider.  In looking at trade partners, I only considered NL teams (no Vikings in this post, I am not trading with the AL, I don't want CC to destroy us in the playoffs). SF, Ariz., Mia, Cards, and Phil, all seem to be near the wild card and with Correa being a significant upgrade over their current SS. Each has at least 3 players in the top 100, according to MLB.  I was salivating when I saw Miami with 3 pitcher in the top 50, including Max Meyer.

Then I looked at Comps of recent trade deadline deals.  Kris Bryant stands out as the most similar comp over the last two years. The Cubs got back the Giants number 9 and 30 prospects according to MLB....and i just wasted 30 minutes, no way do I make that trade or anything similar.

 

[TheLeviathan]

34 minutes ago, Tim said:

I dont think Correa is opting in or out of 35 mil with his agent Scott Boars in mind.

Sure, but I don't think Scott Boras negotiated a contract he has zero chance of getting paid for going forward.  They have a plan and it ain't "opt-in".

[IndianaTwin]

28 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Luis Gil. 

And I'm only partly joking about that. There's actually a decent chance he'd be the best prospect they're willing to give up for a Correa rental.

 

Folks have discussed whether the baseballtradevalues.com simulator is of any value. For what it's worth, you're not far off on suggesting Gil. One of the closest matches on a one-for-one trade with the Yankees is Kiner-Falefa.

And to put it in a Twin-specific context, the closest match via trade is Duran, followed by Thielbar, followed by Paddack. That's Duran OR Thielbar OR Paddack, not AND. 

[Squirrel]

37 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Luis Gil. 

And I'm only partly joking about that. There's actually a decent chance he'd be the best prospect they're willing to give up for a Correa rental.

Well, hmm ... Luis Gil just had TJ surgery ... and that's the best the Yankees will offer? That's an easy decision to make in my mind

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, Squirrel said:

Well, hmm ... Luis Gil just had TJ surgery ... and that's the best the Yankees will offer? That's an easy decision to make in my mind

That's why I think it's so outlandish that people think he should or will be traded. He's a rental and there's not going to be a huge market for him so they're not getting anything crazy in return. If the Yankees wouldn't trade Volpe, Peraza, or Dominguez for 2 years of Montas or for a year of Olson they're not trading them for half a season of Correa.

As @nicholas Anderson points out the Cubs didn't exactly get a ton for Bryant last year (he's not a SS and quite to the level of Correa, but they got a barely top 10 org prospect for him so Correa isn't getting a top 3 prospect). Manny Machado brought back quantity over quality (Baltimore was run by an awful FO at the time so that should be considered). Diaz was a back end of the top 100 prospect so maybe the Twins can get someone in that range for Correa? Luis Gil is around that area so seems realistic (TJ obviously changes that some and that's why it was partly a joke). Cubs also got a back end of the top 100 prospect for Javy Baez and Trevor Williams last year. So the best they Twins could hope for is a guy in the 75-115 range of global prospects and maybe some flier type guys thrown in. I don't think that's enough. And that's assuming there's more than 1 team willing to trade for a top SS and they can't get Xander Bogaerts for less from Boston.

[LA VIkes Fan]

On 5/24/2022 at 8:44 AM, rwilfong86 said:

Agreed. They can use Royce at other places in the lineup besides shortstop as well. 

I agree I think that's exactly what they intend to do. He has played four games at AAA, 2 at SS, and 1 at both 3B and LF. I would expect a similar situation in their six games this week (he played SS last night) and then I think he's back as a super utility player.

[nicksaviking]

4 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

OK... I'll bite.

Let's say we trade Correa to the Yankees at the deadline.

What's the guess on what we get back? 

 

Josh Donaldson obviously.

But really, all that Luis Gil fretting seems more to do with giving up anything of value for Jake Cave. The guy walks way too many batters, and he has at every level. Maybe he'll make it as an inconsistent reliever, but most likely he'll flame out. It's been a bit understated, but the Twins haven't been keeping these types of pitchers hanging around like they were a few years ago.

[Squirrel]

21 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

That's why I think it's so outlandish that people think he should or will be traded. He's a rental and there's not going to be a huge market for him so they're not getting anything crazy in return. If the Yankees wouldn't trade Volpe, Peraza, or Dominguez for 2 years of Montas or for a year of Olson they're not trading them for half a season of Correa.

As @nicholas Anderson points out the Cubs didn't exactly get a ton for Bryant last year (he's not a SS and quite to the level of Correa, but they got a barely top 10 org prospect for him so Correa isn't getting a top 3 prospect). Manny Machado brought back quantity over quality (Baltimore was run by an awful FO at the time so that should be considered). Diaz was a back end of the top 100 prospect so maybe the Twins can get someone in that range for Correa? Luis Gil is around that area so seems realistic (TJ obviously changes that some and that's why it was partly a joke). Cubs also got a back end of the top 100 prospect for Javy Baez and Trevor Williams last year. So the best they Twins could hope for is a guy in the 75-115 range of global prospects and maybe some flier type guys thrown in. I don't think that's enough. And that's assuming there's more than 1 team willing to trade for a top SS and they can't get Xander Bogaerts for less from Boston.

Preaching to the choir on this as I've been saying all along ... what would we get in return? We aren't going to get what some think and I keep going back to the Santana trade because I think that is a close enough comp. That should be a lesson to us. Thankfully it's not the same FO as then dealing with this.

[Tim]

In a hypothetical made up world where the Twins are 12 GB in the Central at the deadline and trading Correa is somehow a reality, the Cardinals, Yankees, Angels, and Phillies are realistic options depending on standings. You aren't getting multiple top 100 guys and you would be hard pressed to get even 1. But some fringe names for those teams ...

Cardinals - Michael McGreevy, Masyn Winn

Yankees - Hayden Wesneski, Tj Sikkema

Angels - Ky Bush, Chase Silseth

Phillies - No one. at all

 

Aside from McGreevy and Bush, none of it is all too tempting.

[nicksaviking]

Even if the Twins "got an offer they couldn't refuse", the Red Sox would just swoop in and steal it with Bogaerts.

Correa's not going anywhere.

[laloesch]

23 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

Then what about the Indians they weren't competing?  You can blow your horn all you want.  You admit they aren't an elite team with an extremely slim to no chance in the playoffs so why not trade for players that will likely help us when our window is actually open?

exactly my thoughts.  

[Possumlad]

On 5/24/2022 at 10:51 AM, Mike Sixel said:

I hate the idea of weakening a playoff team. The thought is really, really, weird. I don't get this at all. 

Strongly disagree. They need to either extend him prior to the deadline or trade him. They'd be absolutely nuts not to trade him IF they don't expect him back next year. 

Laying it out this way helps clarify the decision: 

What would you rather have? 

1) 3 months (at most) of Carlos Correa 

or 

2) Whatever haul of big-time big leaguers & prospects you'd get for him 

No competent front office in the league would choose the former. Again this is IF they don't expect him back next year. If they plan to extend him, hang on to him for sure.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Possumlad said:

Strongly disagree. They need to either extend him prior to the deadline or trade him. They'd be absolutely nuts not to trade him IF they don't expect him back next year. 

Laying it out this way helps clarify the decision: 

What would you rather have? 

1) 3 months (at most) of Carlos Correa 

or 

2) Whatever haul of big-time big leaguers & prospects you'd get for him 

No competent front office in the league would choose the former. Again this is IF they don't expect him back next year. If they plan to extend him, hang on to him for sure.

If they are a playoff team, three months of CC. And, you are 100% wrong on your last statement. Or, are you suggesting whomever they trade him to is incompetent, since they'd be acquiring him for 3 months? I mean, what can you expect to get for a guy that it is incompetent to keep?

[Possumlad]

4 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

If they are a playoff team, three months of CC. And, you are 100% wrong on your last statement. Or, are you suggesting whomever they trade him to is incompetent, since they'd be acquiring him for 3 months? I mean, what can you expect to get for a guy that it is incompetent to keep?

I guess we just disagree. My assumption is that whoever traded for him would do so in  hopes of signing him long-term. If they didn't, then yes I think trading much for him would be incompetent. 3mo of any position player isn't worth much, contender or not. 

Correa posted a 7.2 WAR in 2021, the highest of his career. So at best, 50-60 games of Correa is worth ~2-3 wins against replacement. If you can get back a meaningful haul, you trade 2-3 wins for it every time.

[Tim]

13 minutes ago, Possumlad said:

Strongly disagree. They need to either extend him prior to the deadline or trade him. They'd be absolutely nuts not to trade him IF they don't expect him back next year. 

Laying it out this way helps clarify the decision: 

What would you rather have? 

1) 3 months (at most) of Carlos Correa 

or 

2) Whatever haul of big-time big leaguers & prospects you'd get for him 

No competent front office in the league would choose the former. Again this is IF they don't expect him back next year. If they plan to extend him, hang on to him for sure.

Well the thing is you absolutely are not getting a haul, it's not even on the table for a 3 month rental.

There's a point where having a top 15 player in the game matters more for a playoff run and winning a world series than having a prospect that MIGHT add value to the future of this organization.

[Possumlad]

2 minutes ago, Tim said:

Well the thing is you absolutely are not getting a haul, it's not even a reality.

There's a point where having a top 15 player in the game matters more for a playoff run and winning a world series than having a prospect that MIGHT add value to the future of this organization.

Fair. I'm not suggesting trading him for peanuts... if it's not the right offer, I'd rather hang on to him. 

[Mike Sixel]

7 minutes ago, Possumlad said:

Fair. I'm not suggesting trading him for peanuts... if it's not the right offer, I'd rather hang on to him. 

Which team? Not the Dodgers. Not the Yankees (they didn't sign him, traded for IKF). He's not re-signing in Milwaukee. Certainly not Houston. Atlanta? Nope. The Mets....who would you even want?

Go look at the best teams, all of whom passed on signing him, and their farm systems, and tell me who would even trade for him, after not signing him only for money.