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Not Yet on the Bus for Celestino

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Okay, Celestino now has 137 career plate appearances, with 75 of them this year. His lifetime BABip is now .319, better than the league average of .299, but not really out of line. Having just seen him, I think Celestino is similar to a Whit Merrifield (right handed, doesn't fan much, uses the whole field, not much power). Merrifield's lifetime BABip is .324. My theory is that the 75 PAs is "normalized" by his poor performance on batted balls last year and that he should probably project at a pace similar to his lifetime stats--.252 BA, .676 OPS, 96 OPS+. Projecting those numbers forward for the remaining three-quarters of the season would give a .277 BA, 727 OPS and an OPS+ of about 106. 

Obviously this projection has a lot of variables, but those numbers out of Celestino this year (at age 23) would be pretty good. BBRef already has Celestino with 1.0 WAR. Not bad.

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

I like what I'm seeing. But I don't like what I'm not seeing also.

He looks like he will be able to get on base, but he also looks to have next to no XBH potential. He definitely is a useful player, but they already have Arraez in the lineup near daily and Austin Marin looks to be a similar player. Honestly, if the Twins swing a trade in the next couple of months, I'd be pumping up Celestino as a key piece of that transaction.

He has clearly raised his value as a trade piece if needed.  He can play CF competently and get on base.  That used to be all some wanted in a CF. 

Well there was clamoring and concern on Akil Baddoo who really only got hot for 12 games at the beginning of the season last year.  This year has been a rough year for him.  Celestino appears to have a better bat than Baddoo. It is definitely a small sample size, however  hhe has been really consistent in the minor leagues hitting right around 270 to 290 every year.  So a 280 to 290 BA for the year would not be surprising -  his current 350 is outperforming that by a fairly wide margin.  That is a still a valuable player for the Twins either as a full time outfielder or 4th outfielder.   With a deader ball, batters that can extend the count and make contact have more value than a homer happy player that strikes out a ton and is now struggling to get it over the wall.  Give me 9 players like Celestino and Arraez and you will win a lot of games.  I would be okay with a reiteration of the piranha team from 2006 to 2008,  would be more entertaining than the three true outcomes that we have seen for the last couple of years.   

I'm glad the Twins gave him the playing time over the previous seasons' experiment by the name of Jake Cave, 

5 hours ago, Trov said:

He has clearly raised his value as a trade piece if needed.  He can play CF competently and get on base.  That used to be all some wanted in a CF. 

I'd be okay with Celestino in a trade package with some other prospects for another quality starting pitcher. 

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