Not Yet on the Bus for Celestino

[stringer bell]

I'm far from an expert on modern metrics. Yesterday, I commented that I thought Gilberto Celestino had gotten a disproportionate number of hits on soft contact. According to BBRef, it sure looks like he's been extremely fortunate. Celestino's BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is an incredible .477. Last year, in an equivalent number of plate appearances, that number was .140. Exit velocity this year is 83.9, last year was 87.2. Hard hit percentage this year is 28.9%, last year was 31.1%. Line drive pecentage is the same as last year--24.4%. Celestino's ground ball percentage is 55.6% (really high), compared to 46.7% last year. 

I presume that Gilberto was very unlucky last year and in his 67 plate appearances he has made up for that misfortune. It seems to me that Celestino has growing confidence and he shows in the field, but he seems due for regression. As a guy who makes contact and uses the whole field, I doubt he goes into a severe funk, but I don't think he's a .300 hitter and he hasn't shown much power. My thought that Celestino is a fourth outfielder at this point really hasn't changed despite the really good numbers so far.

[ashbury]

I think Celestino has a high ceiling, i.e. if he can become a league-average hitter with CF skills he's quite valuable, but your observation does pump the brakes a bit on his having reached that ceiling quite yet.

[Doctor Gast]

I have no doubt about Celestino as the present LF/ 4th OF. Primarily his glove which can effectively sub Buxton. Secondary that is he doesn't really SO that often, so those pitches that produces those Celestino's soft hits may results in SOs or just outs by somebody else. I wouldn't necessarily call him lucky. Celestino is the exact person we need along with our stars (Buxton, Correa and Polanco) to continue to win.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

[4twinsJA]

I like Celestino, but concede his present .350 BA is not likely sustainable. I was considering starting a thread on if Celestino should be starting LF. He is a plus defender and has been getting on base at a high rate. Celestino is never going to be a power bat but should hit occasional HR. There should be plenty of playing time for Celestino this year, whether he is considered a starter or 4th OF. He definitely is a valuable asset for the Twins. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

15 hours ago, stringer bell said:

I'm far from an expert on modern metrics. Yesterday, I commented that I thought Gilberto Celestino had gotten a disproportionate number of hits on soft contact. According to BBRef, it sure looks like he's been extremely fortunate. Celestino's BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is an incredible .477. Last year, in an equivalent number of plate appearances, that number was .140. Exit velocity this year is 83.9, last year was 87.2. Hard hit percentage this year is 28.9%, last year was 31.1%. Line drive pecentage is the same as last year--24.4%. Celestino's ground ball percentage is 55.6% (really high), compared to 46.7% last year. 

I presume that Gilberto was very unlucky last year and in his 67 plate appearances he has made up for that misfortune. It seems to me that Celestino has growing confidence and he shows in the field, but he seems due for regression. As a guy who makes contact and uses the whole field, I doubt he goes into a severe funk, but I don't think he's a .300 hitter and he hasn't shown much power. My thought that Celestino is a fourth outfielder at this point really hasn't changed despite the really good numbers so far.

Celestino is a very fast runner and he runs out every fair baseball he hits. Do the BBRef and BABIP take into account the speed of the hitter running to !B and the hitter busting it down to 1B on every play? 

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Celestino is a very fast runner and he runs out every fair baseball he hits. Do the BBRef and BABIP take into account the speed of the hitter running to !B and the hitter busting it down to 1B on every play? 

Byron Buxton is very fast and when he hits a grounder he tries real, real hard too.  His lifetime BABIP is .310, versus a league .297 during his time in the majors, and when you factor in strikeouts and HR (which don't count in BABIP) it maybe contributes a few points to his career batting average. 

Celestino's BABIP this year is .478 but last year it was .140.  Was he just not busting it down to 1B, last year?

I dunno, without trying to look up any references for studies, I think it's merely the case that BABIP takes more than a few dozen PA to normalize, but is useful for exactly that reason - it can identify small-sample batting lines, good or bad, that perhaps will not be sustainable.

(A few batters are capable of a sustained BABIP above league average - Joe Mauer, despite all the moaning you hear about his inability to beat the shift, had a lifetime .341 - that's kind of a mark of a hall of famer if you ask me.    I'll give Celestino a few more years before deciding he's achieved that level of consistency.)

[bean5302]

I see Celestino as potentially a late 20s Denard Span (a little less speed and a little more power than young Span). Even if Celestino's metrics backed his current AVG up, it's still way too small of a sample size to expect it to continue. Celestino has never been an elite prospect, but there's legitimate potential there because of his scouted plus speed. Right now, the chief competition for Celestino is probably Nick Gordon. Not a super high bar to eclipse. 

.270/.330/.390 with Celestino's fringe CF caliber speed is good enough to be a starter in CF for some teams and the Twins need an inexpensive guy who can start 80 games a year in center. Gordon's bat needs to grow to be that player. Celestino's bat may be good enough. Celestino has been lucky this year based on the metrics and unlucky last year. It happens a lot with small sample sizes.

It's clear Celestino grew as a hitter in AAA last year. He needs playing time to figure out whether or not his skills will translate to the big show.

[Muppet]

Maybe he’s been listening to Arraez and has learned how to hit the ball where the people aren’t standing. It might not be sustainable, but baseball is a game of streaks and they should ride this one as long as they can.

[Mill1634]

I too doubt that the Twins 4th OF will continue to hit .355,

[Richie the Rally Goat]

18 minutes ago, Mill1634 said:

I too doubt that the Twins 4th OF will continue to hit .355,

Agreed, I still think he can be a starting caliber, play most days 4th outfielder.

[cheeseheadgophfan]

I don't pretend to predict the future, but I will say I've never seen a player look so lost in his first go-round in the major league as compared to his second chance.  He's a testament to people jumping the gun and saying that Player X sucks right out of the gate.  We need to show the same type of patience with Miranda.....

[Brandon]

1 hour ago, Mill1634 said:

I too doubt that the Twins 4th OF will continue to hit .355,

I don’t think anyone does.  Just enjoy the ride.  A .280 average is doable however. 

[Riverbrian]

For Clarity... I'm not ON the Celestino Bus either. 

I am IN the bus... Much Safer to get in the Bus as opposed to on it. 

There is also a door in the back for emergency exits if necessary so I don't have to remain in the bus if I don't want to. 

Y'all don't know what you are missing. Coolers of Beer with plenty of ice. 

[dxpavelka]

9 hours ago, 4twinsJA said:

I like Celestino, but concede his present .350 BA is not likely sustainable. I was considering starting a thread on if Celestino should be starting LF. He is a plus defender and has been getting on base at a high rate. Celestino is never going to be a power bat but should hit occasional HR. There should be plenty of playing time for Celestino this year, whether he is considered a starter or 4th OF. He definitely is a valuable asset for the Twins. 

Wait.  A .350 batting average is not sustainable?  Wow.  And the sky is blue and the grass green.

 

[mikelink45]

You can have the metrics - I love his play and believe in him.  I only go by eye tests - and I do not mind soft hits.  

[tony&rodney]

Celestino is working the count as much as he can at this time and his attempts to make contact with two strikes have paid off so far.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

For Clarity... I'm not ON the Celestino Bus either. 

I am IN the bus... Much Safer to get in the Bus as opposed to on it. 

There is also a door in the back for emergency exits if necessary so I don't have to remain in the bus if I don't want to. 

Y'all don't know what you are missing. Coolers of Beer with plenty of ice. 

You're not even taking into account the wheels.  They go round and round.  ALL through the town.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

For Clarity... I'm not ON the Celestino Bus either. 

I am IN the bus... Much Safer to get in the Bus as opposed to on it. 

There is also a door in the back for emergency exits if necessary so I don't have to remain in the bus if I don't want to. 

Y'all don't know what you are missing. Coolers of Beer with plenty of ice. 

I’m Kermit, does that make RB Fozzy?

[Thegrin]

From what I've seen, Celestino is a little luck, a little contact, a little bit 'hitting em where they ain't' and a little bit more luck.  I'll take it while it lasts. 

[RpR]

6 minutes ago, Thegrin said:

From what I've seen, Celestino is a little luck, a little contact, a little bit 'hitting em where they ain't' and a little bit more luck.  I'll take it while it lasts. 

WOW, Ted Williams was lucky his whole career, who needs talent.

[old nurse]

2 hours ago, ashbury said:

You're not even taking into account the wheels.  They go round and round.  ALL through the town.

But will it go round in circles

or will it fly high like a bird up in the sky

[Riverbrian]

14 minutes ago, old nurse said:

But will it go round in circles

or will it fly high like a bird up in the sky

I got a song that ain't got no melody. I'm going to sing it to my friends.

I got a story ain't got no moral. Gonna let the bad guy win every once in awhile.

I got a dance that ain't go no steps. Gonna let the music move me around.

Take that Bob Dylan. Just try writing lyrics like that. 

[Aerodeliria]

5 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

For Clarity... I'm not ON the Celestino Bus either. 

I am IN the bus... Much Safer to get in the Bus as opposed to on it. 

There is also a door in the back for emergency exits if necessary so I don't have to remain in the bus if I don't want to. 

Y'all don't know what you are missing. Coolers of Beer with plenty of ice. 

This reminds me of an Engrish bumper sticker on a car here in Japan: "Baby on car"... sounds pretty terrifying to me.

[Trov]

On 5/21/2022 at 5:45 PM, stringer bell said:

I'm far from an expert on modern metrics. Yesterday, I commented that I thought Gilberto Celestino had gotten a disproportionate number of hits on soft contact. According to BBRef, it sure looks like he's been extremely fortunate. Celestino's BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is an incredible .477. Last year, in an equivalent number of plate appearances, that number was .140. Exit velocity this year is 83.9, last year was 87.2. Hard hit percentage this year is 28.9%, last year was 31.1%. Line drive pecentage is the same as last year--24.4%. Celestino's ground ball percentage is 55.6% (really high), compared to 46.7% last year. 

I presume that Gilberto was very unlucky last year and in his 67 plate appearances he has made up for that misfortune. It seems to me that Celestino has growing confidence and he shows in the field, but he seems due for regression. As a guy who makes contact and uses the whole field, I doubt he goes into a severe funk, but I don't think he's a .300 hitter and he hasn't shown much power. My thought that Celestino is a fourth outfielder at this point really hasn't changed despite the really good numbers so far.

I have not seen every one of Celestino's hits over past few weeks.  However, the ones I have seen may not have been rockets but they are far from just pure luck as well.  He has hit the ball softly to the opposite field in may of them.  He appears to be trying to find the hole in the defense and finding it.  Now, as teams adjust to him, will he adjust to that?  That is really the question.  I would feel more on your side if all the hits were infield hits, or soft pop ups that were finding holes in outfield.  I have seen a lot of softer liners and ground balls to the holes in the infield.  

I would take a 85MPH grounder through a hole that he meant to hit it at, than a 110 MPH right at the defender for an out.  Hitting the ball hard will generally lead to more hits, and more extra base hits, but hitting the ball through a hole because no one is standing there will always produce a hit.  I am not advocating for him to be regular starter, but also I do not feel he is getting just lucky as well.  

[Squirrel]

18 hours ago, cheeseheadgophfan said:

I don't pretend to predict the future, but I will say I've never seen a player look so lost in his first go-round in the major league as compared to his second chance.  He's a testament to people jumping the gun and saying that Player X sucks right out of the gate.  We need to show the same type of patience with Miranda.....

The thing about his first go around was he was called up way too soon, essentially AA to the majors, due to necessity because of injuries. He wasn’t ready and it showed. And the latter half of the season in AAA, he was really rolling then. My only hesitancy this year was starting him in the majors - thought he would sit too much and he needed to play - but he’s really shown he belongs

[Major League Ready]

Being an optimist ... It looks to me like he is become very good at placing the ball away from the infield alignment, especially when going to the opposite field and he is using the whole field.  He also has a two-strike approach.  Will he regress.  Yes, but these skills that have emerged should make him a darn good hitter especially if he develops a little power.  I never thought Wade would have any power so there is hope for Celestino.  A little power would make him harder to defend.   I am on going to ride on this bus for now while believing a good player has emerged.  

[wsnydes]

14 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

I’m Kermit, does that make RB Fozzy?

Regardless of who you are, buckle your apparently nonexistent seat belts, you two!  

The wheels on this bus could fall off at any time, but I'm optimistic that he'll continue to be a pretty good 4th outfielder at worst.

[nicksaviking]

I like what I'm seeing. But I don't like what I'm not seeing also.

He looks like he will be able to get on base, but he also looks to have next to no XBH potential. He definitely is a useful player, but they already have Arraez in the lineup near daily and Austin Marin looks to be a similar player. Honestly, if the Twins swing a trade in the next couple of months, I'd be pumping up Celestino as a key piece of that transaction.

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

Last year he looked like a deer in headlights while batting. This year he looks confident with quality at-bats. I am on the bus with him.