There's Only One Way the Royce Lewis Demotion Will Make Sense

[chpettit19]

12 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Fans have the luxury of complete focus on the present.  However, this complete focus on the right now is why many fans would be absolutely horrible GMs.  

The thing with the Lewis situation though is that it's not a focus on the present OR future situation. You can be focusing on both the present AND the future. I don't believe keeping him in the majors playing 3B while training everyday with the best fielding SS in baseball is hindering his future at all. He's played 109 professional innings at 3B already. That's not a ton, but let's not act like he's never played there. He played there most of his HS career as well. So he could help the present team by playing 3B and providing what is currently one of the best bats they have going, and he can learn the habits of Correa and train with him everyday. It's not a this or that situation. He can help the present and still be set to take over SS in the future.

[071063]

16 hours ago, PatPfund said:

Couldn’t disagree more. Royce had a great taste, but with Correa likely gone after this year, the team MUST know if he is the solution at short or not. That means beating all the rust off him at SS by having him play there every day for another month or so. (Pretty sure he had two errors in his short run.) There are other options at the other spots in the short run, and polishing Royce is far more important for later this year and beyond.

I agree with this completely. Royce did very well. But he hasn't played in 2 years and he is our shortstop of the future.  He needs to be ready to play that position full time next year because the Correa will not be here.  Sending him down so he can play shortstop nearly EVERY day is the correct move.

[Blyleven2011]

Ted you nailed it along with the posts of Tim and dcgast .....

[Major League Ready]

25 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

The thing with the Lewis situation though is that it's not a focus on the present OR future situation. You can be focusing on both the present AND the future. I don't believe keeping him in the majors playing 3B while training everyday with the best fielding SS in baseball is hindering his future at all. He's played 109 professional innings at 3B already. That's not a ton, but let's not act like he's never played there. He played there most of his HS career as well. So he could help the present team by playing 3B and providing what is currently one of the best bats they have going, and he can learn the habits of Correa and train with him everyday. It's not a this or that situation. He can help the present and still be set to take over SS in the future.

It's obviously a debatable point of view and you disagree with the FO.  Most people had a very different idea of what should be done this year.  Most had them pegged as a 90 loss team.  Some said they did not even have a ML pitching staff.  None of us could get 10 seconds consideration if we applied for a GM job yet fans love to think they have a superior understanding of what should be done.   It's fun to debate what should or should not be done but we should also understand we are not privy to the plans and we do not possess the superior understanding of what should be done that we think we do.  

[chpettit19]

15 minutes ago, 071063 said:

I agree with this completely. Royce did very well. But he hasn't played in 2 years and he is our shortstop of the future.  He needs to be ready to play that position full time next year because the Correa will not be here.  Sending him down so he can play shortstop nearly EVERY day is the correct move.

Let's break this argument down (and I'm not trying to be rude, just trying to find a way to respond coherently)

1. He missed 2 years.
2. He's the shortstop of the future so needs to be ready.
3. Can't be ready to take over for Correa unless he's playing SS "nearly EVERY day."

I agree with 2. But doesn't his current performance render points 1 and 3 moot? What about his performance suggests he isn't ready to be the shortstop of the present? If Correa wasn't here he'd be the starting SS now and he was doing awfully well at that job. How does keeping him in the majors so he can go through the necessary adjustments over the course of the year as ML pitchers adjust to him hurt his future? I'd argue sending him down delays his ability to be ready to take over for Correa. He can field the position. He's shown it. He'll continue to work on it no matter where he is even if he isn't starting at SS everyday. The struggle rookies face is that eventually the league adjusts to you and pitch you different. That's what he needs to work on to be prepared to take over for Correa. All sending him down does is delay that adjustment opportunity.

[Greglw3]

15 hours ago, Monkeypaws said:

I like the move in the short term because Lewis continues to play SS, which is clearly his long-term place on the field after watching his debut.

Gee whiz, the Twins somehow signed one of the best SS on the planet in the off-season for record money, gotta give him priority.

There are underwhelming guys still on the roster, but none of them play SS. Gordon can give Correa the day off once in a while, and Buxton too. Gordon is the 21st-Century Denny Hocking

 

Why not sign Correa to that long term deal and have them both in the lineup? Lewis has 62 built in games in cf with Buxton limited to 100 and the rest he could strengthen the outfield by playing alongside Buxton and Kepler in lf.

Too talented for lf? Two words: Rickey Henderson. Or Alex Gordon.

Imagine a top 4 of :

1- Arraez 1B (Carew 1B MVP)

2-Lewis LF

3-Correa SS

4-Buxton CF 

I think this would be best with Urshela 3B Uncommon defensive wizard and possible GG win, Larnach DH/LF/RF/1B. Polanco 2B, C Sanchez, 

If Kirilloff comes back into the conversation, he can play 1B and Arraez DH (and back up other places). Then it’s a matter of finding the best place for Larnach. In my mind, he’s never going to be able to match Lewis defensively nor in SB potential as a LF.  

 

 

 

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, Major League Ready said:

It's obviously a debatable point of view and you disagree with the FO.  Most people had a very different idea of what should be done this year.  Most had them pegged as a 90 loss team.  Some said they did not even have a ML pitching staff.  None of us could get 10 seconds consideration if we applied for a GM job yet fans love to think they have a superior understanding of what should be done.   We don't.

What is debatable about it not being an either or situation? It is entirely possible to look to the future and the present. It's literally the FO's job. The Nats sat Strasburg his rookie year with a look towards the future and not wanting to hurt his arm. He's been hurt for nearly his entire career. They also played Turner in CF (a position he'd never played before that year) when he first came up to get his bat in the lineup while he fine tuned his glove at SS. He's now the SS for the best team in baseball after a stint at 2B as well. The idea that the only way to prepare for the future is to send Lewis down is false. Sending him down also doesn't ensure his future. 

I agree with the general idea that fans don't have nearly as much knowledge or info as the FOs we complain about, but don't mistake that for meaning they're always right or that there aren't fans out there with a whole lot of info.

[Dman]

14 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

It's obviously a debatable point of view and you disagree with the FO.  Most people had a very different idea of what should be done this year.  Most had them pegged as a 90 loss team.  Some said they did not even have a ML pitching staff.  None of us could get 10 seconds consideration if we applied for a GM job yet fans love to think they have a superior understanding of what should be done.   It's fun to debate what should or should not be done but we should also understand we are not privy to the plans and we do not possess the superior understanding of what should be done that we think we do.  

Yep I will give you that, fans myself included, often over react to moves the FO makes only to ultimately see they were good moves or at least solid risks worth taking.  At the beginning of this year I had Lewis in AAA at least until after the trade deadline and maybe not at all if he was still struggling with the bat.  Prospect evaluators had dropped him out of the top 100 just based on the uncertainty of where his skillset would land.  No one knew what to expect of Lewis it was all up in the air since he hadn't played in two years.

Some crazy things happened along the way though.  He hit right away at AAA with pretty elite numbers. He had highlight real plays in the field at AAA as well.  Then he gets the early call up only because of Correa's injury and actually does well.  With both the eye test and stats saying he looks like he can handle MLB it changes things.  I don't think anyone and I mean anyone expected him to hold his own at the MLB level after 2 years off.  I think several were bullish on him having a good to decent year at AAA and getting a callup but not what he did this last week.  So yeah I get that the FO isn't sure what to do.  There isn't really room without removing someone and maybe they add him to the team again once the pitchers have to go down and a lot of this angst is moot but they could have done things to keep him there and IMO they should have. 

At any rate sure the FO should always get the benefit of the doubt but they are wrong sometimes too.  This is a place to discuss our opinions and I have been proven wrong many times and right many times.  Royce going back to AAA isn't going to hurt Royce but it might hurt the Twins if he is the catalyst he looks like he can be.

[In My La Z boy]

Great write up. I agree this will be a very short stint back in AAA for Royce. Urshela is a nice June trade chip - maybe even Celestino for a high grade starter. We are building depth. 

[chpettit19]

33 minutes ago, Dman said:

Yep I will give you that, fans myself included, often over react to moves the FO makes only to ultimately see they were good moves or at least solid risks worth taking.  At the beginning of this year I had Lewis in AAA at least until after the trade deadline and maybe not at all if he was still struggling with the bat.  Prospect evaluators had dropped him out of the top 100 just based on the uncertainty of where his skillset would land.  No one knew what to expect of Lewis it was all up in the air since he hadn't played in two years.

Some crazy things happened along the way though.  He hit right away at AAA with pretty elite numbers. He had highlight real plays in the field at AAA as well.  Then he gets the early call up only because of Correa's injury and actually does well.  With both the eye test and stats saying he looks like he can handle MLB it changes things.  I don't think anyone and I mean anyone expected him to hold his own at the MLB level after 2 years off.  I think several were bullish on him having a good to decent year at AAA and getting a callup but not what he did this last week.  So yeah I get that the FO isn't sure what to do.  There isn't really room without removing someone and maybe they add him to the team again once the pitchers have to go down and a lot of this angst is moot but they could have done things to keep him there and IMO they should have. 

At any rate sure the FO should always get the benefit of the doubt but they are wrong sometimes too.  This is a place to discuss our opinions and I have been proven wrong many times and right many times.  Royce going back to AAA isn't going to hurt Royce but it might hurt the Twins if he is the catalyst he looks like he can be.

I expected it, and admit it's quite possible that's why I'm so cranky about the decision to send him back down. I spent all offseason saying I expected him to do what Baddoo did last year and come out of the gates on fire because he's just that naturally gifted. He's an incredibly hard worker and knew what his was holding him back. Having all of 2020 to spend on reworking his swing without having to worry about what numbers he was putting up or getting promoted or whatever else was a blessing to him. I think game reps defensively are highly overrated. It's important to build your instincts and all that, but in terms of straight up being able to make the plays that's all worked on in practice. So, again, 2020 spent doing nothing but working on his glove everyday without worrying about errors and fielding percentage was a blessing to him.

Last year was a real bummer for him. But he was training and playing games during the offseason unlike many of the major leaguers were so he was more ready than them because of his rehab process. I fully expected this out of him and I think it's a failing that the FO seemed to be so surprised (or are just being overly cautious/refusing to waiver from "the plan") by his success. They know what he was looking like in 2020 and what he was looking like during his rehab process and should've been ready for this.

This feels like 1 of 3 things happened/are happening:
1. They weren't prepared for him to be this good this early. In which case they did a terrible job self-scouting their own player.
2. They're being overly cautious/looking too much to the future at the cost of the present by putting so much emphasis on him getting AAA reps at SS. In my opinion this is also inexcusable as there are plenty of examples of guys moving positions on the fly in the bigs and doing well. Trea Turner being the perfect example. Kris Bryant being another one (just wasn't a SS). It was out of necessity due to injuries for Arraez and Gordon to do it, but they were both successful with it. Teams do it all the time.
3. They're refusing to alter the almighty "plan." This is kind of a combo of 1 and 2. Also find it to be an awful excuse and a major flaw for the FO if it's what's happening.

I think they've shown a tendency to hold onto plans too long/be overly cautious with things, and I think it's their biggest flaw. From the outside it looks like they get blinders on and are just going to keep charging in the direction they picked until they get knocked off course and have no choice but to adjust. I think they've been outstanding at setting up the development systems and the general baseball ops practices for a winning organization. I think they need a more aggressive voice in the room to counterbalance what appears to be a large number of "play it safe" voices. Lewis going down isn't the end of the world, and neither is resting Buxton or Correa, but there needs to be some aggressiveness at some point. At least that's how I see if from the outside.

[Squirrel]

23 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I expected it, and admit it's quite possible that's why I'm so cranky about the decision to send him back down. I spent all offseason saying I expected him to do what Baddoo did last year and come out of the gates on fire because he's just that naturally gifted. He's an incredibly hard worker and knew what his was holding him back. Having all of 2020 to spend on reworking his swing without having to worry about what numbers he was putting up or getting promoted or whatever else was a blessing to him. I think game reps defensively are highly overrated. It's important to build your instincts and all that, but in terms of straight up being able to make the plays that's all worked on in practice. So, again, 2020 spent doing nothing but working on his glove everyday without worrying about errors and fielding percentage was a blessing to him.

Last year was a real bummer for him. But he was training and playing games during the offseason unlike many of the major leaguers were so he was more ready than them because of his rehab process. I fully expected this out of him and I think it's a failing that the FO seemed to be so surprised (or are just being overly cautious/refusing to waiver from "the plan") by his success. They know what he was looking like in 2020 and what he was looking like during his rehab process and should've been ready for this.

This feels like 1 of 3 things happened/are happening:
1. They weren't prepared for him to be this good this early. In which case they did a terrible job self-scouting their own player.
2. They're being overly cautious/looking too much to the future at the cost of the present by putting so much emphasis on him getting AAA reps at SS. In my opinion this is also inexcusable as there are plenty of examples of guys moving positions on the fly in the bigs and doing well. Trea Turner being the perfect example. Kris Bryant being another one (just wasn't a SS). It was out of necessity due to injuries for Arraez and Gordon to do it, but they were both successful with it. Teams do it all the time.
3. They're refusing to alter the almighty "plan." This is kind of a combo of 1 and 2. Also find it to be an awful excuse and a major flaw for the FO if it's what's happening.

I think they've shown a tendency to hold onto plans too long/be overly cautious with things, and I think it's their biggest flaw. From the outside it looks like they get blinders on and are just going to keep charging in the direction they picked until they get knocked off course and have no choice but to adjust. I think they've been outstanding at setting up the development systems and the general baseball ops practices for a winning organization. I think they need a more aggressive voice in the room to counterbalance what appears to be a large number of "play it safe" voices. Lewis going down isn't the end of the world, and neither is resting Buxton or Correa, but there needs to be some aggressiveness at some point. At least that's how I see if from the outside.

Okay ... every scenario you pointed out is a negative reflection. I get the 'feels like' but maybe try and take a more neutral stance than the one you wanted/expected/thought should be and reevaluate a little. Yeah, no one is objective. I get that.

First ... are you sure you want to use Baddoo as a comp? Where is Baddoo now after a huge break out year for him? He's regressed, a lot. I still think he can be everything he was last year, but, it's time for him to readjust and catch his breath. He will. And this was apparent in the latter half of last season. I mean, many thought that Miranda should have been with the team this year as our starting 3B after his breakout year last season, and he faltered. It doesn't indicated that he will be a bad player in the major, it just means he needs to adjust. Royce started the season in AAA with a bang, and after 11 games in the majors, did everything anyone could ever hope/want/expect. He has shown he belongs ... at some point. I think it's just way too early to christen him to the majors from here on out. Yeah, I DO get the argument of letting him play until a time he needs some adjustment (assuming that happens because it almost always does at some point). And yeah, I also get that he is more talented that those others, too, and maybe he won't need as much. I get it. You wanted him to stay based on his year this year, based on how you projected him to be. I just don't think it's a negative he was sent down. Unless we released someone or traded someone, there wasn't a spot for him. Yeah, I'd have sent Miranda down before Lewis, but, I also believe Lewis will be the one called back up when we send down our 14th pitcher. He will also be the first call if any position player has an injury ... so they want him playing every day, in multiple positions, to get him ready, because he will be back up.

Second, maybe it's not about sticking to an almighty plan ... but maybe that plan has been in flux since we signed Correa. Just maybe they are trying to figure out a way to keep Correa long term. Maybe this is part of the new plan, getting Lewis ready to take over 3rd or an outfield spot because Correa is going to be our SS next year, too. What if Correa doesn't opt out? What then? So, I don't think it's about 'sticking to a plan', I think it's about ... okay, that plan is in flux and there are a lot pieces and a lot of 'what ifs' that are happening or could happen. I don't think it's a bad thing to not jerk the car around with a 180 because Lewis did so well in his 1st 11 games in the major. Maybe it's like ... whoa ... I think we need to take this exit instead and have the GSP remap the route.

Third, I don't know squat. But this is just how I think of it all. I don't think Lewis going down is all that bad. Wouldn't have been my choice when it happened. But I'm also fine with the decision. Yes, the right here and now is important ... so is the planning for June, July, August and September to get us to October and November. I don't want them to be doing things because of next year ... but I think thinking as far forward as the rest of the season is definitely something I want them to do.

Okay, I'm out of breath. I hate long posting.  

[PatPfund]

13 hours ago, Dman said:

And they have won without Buxton and Correa and Polanco and Arraez.  This isn't about whether you can win a game without a player it is about putting your best players on the field.  Why not send Correa to AAA to learn how not to get in the hands by pitches or Buxton to learn not to have hip injuries?  You don't take a player who is better than half the team and hide him at AAA.  Who does that?  What great FO would do that? Would you have taken Cruz out to learn how to play left field when he was the top bat on your team?  No you play your best players.  You find places to play your best players.  I don't see how that doesn't make sense to people.  I mean fine send all the players we have that are hitting 300 to AAA that should make the Twins better?  Personally, I don't see how it is defensible.

Is Royce a better shortstop than Correa (or Polanco)? Nope; not offensively or defensively. (But is he the future there if Correa is out or gone? Yes. The hitting looks mature, the fielding looks unpolished.)

Is Royce a better LF than Gordon or Celestino; maybe bat, yes (though remember Larnach and Rooker tore it up for short stints at the start, but experience in fielding, no.

Is Royce better at third than Urshela? Maybe again with the bat, maybe, but not defensively (not anywhere near defensively) yet.

Is Royce a better fit than Arraez at 1B? Right now Arraez hits better and has a longer history of doing so. Defensively Royce might start equal, and get better with practice.

Note the common thread. Yep, he can hit, but he is either talented/rough defensively (small sample, but no smaller than the hitting, Royce's fielding percentage so far is worse than any Correa has posted in his career), or talented/totally-inexperienced. Now where on Earth could the Twins put Royce to polish his weaknesses or inexperience, and still field a lineup as strong without him as with him. Maybe the minors? It's not a life sentence, it is the place to develop players until they are fully ready.

I'd say I don't see why people can't see that, but I get the other side. A lot. But I also want to win both now and in October, and I'm willing to let the front office play chess since they seem much sharper at it than they were last year. And this team is stronger both in October and next year with a polished Royce Lewis.

[chpettit19]

39 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

Okay ... every scenario you pointed out is a negative reflection. I get the 'feels like' but maybe try and take a more neutral stance than the one you wanted/expected/thought should be and reevaluate a little. Yeah, no one is objective. I get that.

First ... are you sure you want to use Baddoo as a comp? Where is Baddoo now after a huge break out year for him? He's regressed, a lot. I still think he can be everything he was last year, but, it's time for him to readjust and catch his breath. He will. And this was apparent in the latter half of last season. I mean, many thought that Miranda should have been with the team this year as our starting 3B after his breakout year last season, and he faltered. It doesn't indicated that he will be a bad player in the major, it just means he needs to adjust. Royce started the season in AAA with a bang, and after 11 games in the majors, did everything anyone could ever hope/want/expect. He has shown he belongs ... at some point. I think it's just way too early to christen him to the majors from here on out. Yeah, I DO get the argument of letting him play until a time he needs some adjustment (assuming that happens because it almost always does at some point). And yeah, I also get that he is more talented that those others, too, and maybe he won't need as much. I get it. You wanted him to stay based on his year this year, based on how you projected him to be. I just don't think it's a negative he was sent down. Unless we released someone or traded someone, there wasn't a spot for him. Yeah, I'd have sent Miranda down before Lewis, but, I also believe Lewis will be the one called back up when we send down our 14th pitcher. He will also be the first call if any position player has an injury ... so they want him playing every day, in multiple positions, to get him ready, because he will be back up.

Second, maybe it's not about sticking to an almighty plan ... but maybe that plan has been in flux since we signed Correa. Just maybe they are trying to figure out a way to keep Correa long term. Maybe this is part of the new plan, getting Lewis ready to take over 3rd or an outfield spot because Correa is going to be our SS next year, too. What if Correa doesn't opt out? What then? So, I don't think it's about 'sticking to a plan', I think it's about ... okay, that plan is in flux and there are a lot pieces and a lot of 'what ifs' that are happening or could happen. I don't think it's a bad thing to not jerk the car around with a 180 because Lewis did so well in his 1st 11 games in the major. Maybe it's like ... whoa ... I think we need to take this exit instead and have the GSP remap the route.

Third, I don't know squat. But this is just how I think of it all. I don't think Lewis going down is all that bad. Wouldn't have been my choice when it happened. But I'm also fine with the decision. Yes, the right here and now is important ... so is the planning for June, July, August and September to get us to October and November. I don't want them to be doing things because of next year ... but I think thinking as far forward as the rest of the season is definitely something I want them to do.

Okay, I'm out of breath. I hate long posting.  

You disprove your own point in your first paragraph. You start by saying he's going to have struggles and shouldn't be christened to the majors from here on out. I agree with both of those things. But then you point out the obvious counter in that he's going to need to go through those struggles eventually. Sending him down while he's doing well because at some point it's almost guaranteed that he has struggles is just delaying those struggles. Sending him down doesn't change that, it just makes it more likely that he goes through those challenges at a time when the team isn't playing the As, Royals, and Tigers and they're actually counting on him to have made adjustments. 

Lewis doesn't need to be in AAA to learn 3B. He's played it plenty throughout his life. Including 109 professional innings. There's no reason to send him to AAA to learn 3B. LF you could sell me on. I guess we'll see where they play him in AAA. But the rest of that second paragraph is just an emphasis on 1 of my 3 complaints: being surprised he was good. If it's "whoa" in anyway and they need to send him down to recalculate it means they weren't prepared for him to be ready and better than Urshela and Miranda (a guy with 1 good MLB season, and a guy with 1 good MiLB season). That's a failure. If they signed Correa knowing they had Lewis and are now surprised and confused on what to do because Correa may stay and their best prospect, who plays the same position, is good it's a failure, not an acceptable excuse. How do you not expect, and thus have a plan for, your top prospect to be good?

I agree with the premise of your 3rd paragraph. It's not the end of the world. But that doesn't mean it makes sense or was necessary or that the FO doesn't deserve all the heat they're getting (including from their own players if you believe the Dan Hayes article on The Athletic). But I am thinking about June, July, August, September, and October or November when I make my complaints. He's going to struggle at some point in the majors (as we both agree on). I'd prefer that happens in May or June rather than September or October. He's going to have to make adjustments. Let's let him make them early instead of late when he's being counted on during a pennant race late in the year.

And for the record this is my objective stance. I have run all the options through my head. I've read pretty much every post on here about the possibilities and read all the Twins quotes from the FO to Rocco to the players. I have yet to see one that isn't easily refuted (outside of maybe them wanting him to get some time in LF). Playing 3B isn't acceptable as he can already do it. Playing SS isn't either as he's already shown he can play it after 2 years off. "The future" isn't as he needs to go through the adjustment period so all you're doing is delaying it. Urshela standing in his way isn't as he's a potential star and Urshela is a utility IFer. It's not the end of the world, but that doesn't make it a good decision through a "neutral stance" thought process.

[Squirrel]

6 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

You disprove your own point in your first paragraph. You start by saying he's going to have struggles and shouldn't be christened to the majors from here on out. I agree with both of those things. But then you point out the obvious counter in that he's going to need to go through those struggles eventually. Sending him down while he's doing well because at some point it's almost guaranteed that he has struggles is just delaying those struggles. Sending him down doesn't change that, it just makes it more likely that he goes through those challenges at a time when the team isn't playing the As, Royals, and Tigers and they're actually counting on him to have made adjustments. 

Lewis doesn't need to be in AAA to learn 3B. He's played it plenty throughout his life. Including 109 professional innings. There's no reason to send him to AAA to learn 3B. LF you could sell me on. I guess we'll see where they play him in AAA. But the rest of that second paragraph is just an emphasis on 1 of my 3 complaints: being surprised he was good. If it's "whoa" in anyway and they need to send him down to recalculate it means they weren't prepared for him to be ready and better than Urshela and Miranda (a guy with 1 good MLB season, and a guy with 1 good MiLB season). That's a failure. If they signed Correa knowing they had Lewis and are now surprised and confused on what to do because Correa may stay and their best prospect, who plays the same position, is good it's a failure, not an acceptable excuse. How do you not expect, and thus have a plan for, your top prospect to be good?

I agree with the premise of your 3rd paragraph. It's not the end of the world. But that doesn't mean it makes sense or was necessary or that the FO doesn't deserve all the heat they're getting (including from their own players if you believe the Dan Hayes article on The Athletic). But I am thinking about June, July, August, September, and October or November when I make my complaints. He's going to struggle at some point in the majors (as we both agree on). I'd prefer that happens in May or June rather than September or October. He's going to have to make adjustments. Let's let him make them early instead of late when he's being counted on during a pennant race late in the year.

At this point, I'm not going to continue other than to say ... I don't think they've made a mistake here. At all. You seem to think it's all about some misfired plan or expectation and now they are confused. I just don't agree with your characterizations. 

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, Squirrel said:

At this point, I'm not going to continue other than to say ... I don't think they've made a mistake here. At all. You seem to think it's all about some misfired plan or expectation and now they are confused. I just don't agree with your characterizations. 

That's a great mischaracterization of my stance. And you literally just suggested they were confused on what to do and needed to pull off the highway to recalculate the GPS.

My stance is that it's an unforced demotion of one of the best players they currently have on the roster. I've provided numerous guesses on how they could've come to the decision. I've rebutted reasons given by both posters and team officials/players. Doesn't mean I'm right. But characterizing my stance as "it's all about some misfired plan or expectation and now they are confused" is ignoring a lot and actually a complaint about an argument you literally made 45 minutes ago. But don't characterize my stance that way as it's drastically reducing the ideas I've presented.

[Squirrel]

9 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

That's a great mischaracterization of my stance. And you literally just suggested they were confused on what to do and needed to pull off the highway to recalculate the GPS.

My stance is that it's an unforced demotion of one of the best players they currently have on the roster. I've provided numerous guesses on how they could've come to the decision. I've rebutted reasons given by both posters and team officials/players. Doesn't mean I'm right. But characterizing my stance as "it's all about some misfired plan or expectation and now they are confused" is ignoring a lot and actually a complaint about an argument you literally made 45 minutes ago. But don't characterize my stance that way as it's drastically reducing the ideas I've presented.

Talk about mischaracterizing what I said ... I didn't say they were confused ... but when Royce did as he did, yes, they need to figure out a new plan, and that's what they are doing, and what I expect them to do. It's not a misfire, or confusion ... recalculating, yes, because I hope they are always doing that, because they should. They can't stand pat and stick to some 'almighty plan' as you suggest they are doing. I'm saying ... I don't see that, at all as you suggested.

 

[chpettit19]

18 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

Talk about mischaracterizing what I said ... I didn't say they were confused ... but when Royce did as he did, yes, they need to figure out a new plan, and that's what they are doing, and what I expect them to do. It's not a misfire, or confusion ... recalculating, yes, because I hope they are always doing that, because they should. They can't stand pat and stick to some 'almighty plan' as you suggest they are doing. I'm saying ... I don't see that, at all as you suggested.

 

And I'm saying it's a failure that they didn't have a plan in place for their top prospect being good. You're in the season. Games are happening. Wins and losses matter. Having to send down a guy who's performing better than all but 3 of your current major leaguers because you need to "recalculate" is a failure. Needing to "figure out a new plan" because your superstar shortstop and your top prospect shortstop are both good at baseball is a failure. I don't get how that's not considered anything but a misfire.

[LA VIkes Fan]

Good article in the Athletic about how the Twins' players took the Lewis demotion. The gist of it is that they weren't happy but "understood" and they expect him back in the short to medium term.  Here's a link, not sure if you can get the article if you don't subscribe to the Athletic:

https://theathletic.com/3321067/2022/05/18/royce-lewis-demoted-minnesota-twins/

[bean5302]

Regardless of what the Twins have said they were interested in doing, Lewis has played shortstop in 22 of his 24 games in St. Paul. The only other position was DH. I expect Lewis will continue to play SS almost exclusively.

• Polanco - Starting 2B, can we all agree the Twins aren't going to cut/trade him to play Lewis?
• Correa - Anybody okay with giving Lewis the starting SS job? The Twins "could" DFA Correa and I DO expect a team may well claim that contract on waivers because of its potential upside, but there's a risk the Twins eat $100MM on this... Not happening. Furthermore, trusting Lewis is as good as perennial MVP candidate Correa today or this year is... well... pretty aggressive.
• Arraez - Utility infielder. He has 2 options remaining, but let's get real. Arraez has proven himself to be a better than average MLB starter over the course of 275 MLB games. He's not getting demoted so Lewis can play. Even if Arraez was traded, the Twins have been primarily using him as a DH because there's already a shortage of space for infielders.
• Urshela - Arb 2 ($6.6MM). He has no options remaining so he cannot be demoted, but he has limited to no value right now. If the Twins were to DFA him, he'd probably pass through waivers, decline his assignment and become a free agent and the Twins would be on the hook for his contract. I don't know as this would be a terrible move, but certainly uncharacteristic of the front office to cut bait and eat that contract so early in the season. This would push Lewis to 3B
• Gordon - He's technically played SS a little this year, but he's not the starter and won't be. He's a utility fielder who often comes in as an injury or defensive replacement and doesn't see every day playing time. He has no options and would refuse an assignment so he'd be gone and Lewis replacing him means occasional play rather than every day opportunity.
• Miranda - Demoting him really doesn't open up any positions for Lewis, TBH. I guess Urshela could be moved to 1B and Lewis to 3B, keeping Arraez at DH but I'm sure the Twins badly want to get a look at Miranda after his performance explosion last year at AAA. Kirilloff being ready to be recalled would put the Twins right back into the same spot. Lewis can't be the reason Kirilloff stays in the minors, either.

Honestly, Lewis playing every day shortstop at AAA makes the most sense while the Twins sort out the roster picture on a larger scale. Minnesota has created some nasty log jam situations, but nobody expected Lewis to perform like this. Absolutely nobody. If somebody in Spring Training had come out and said Lewis would be OPS'ing .800 at AA so far this year, 95% of fans would have been ecstatic. Saying he was going to be OPS'ing 1.000 at AAA and continuing to rake at MLB would have been met with questions regarding sanity.

[LA VIkes Fan]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Regardless of what the Twins have said they were interested in doing, Lewis has played shortstop in 22 of his 24 games in St. Paul. The only other position was DH. I expect Lewis will continue to play SS almost exclusively.

• Polanco - Starting 2B, can we all agree the Twins aren't going to cut/trade him to play Lewis?
• Correa - Anybody okay with giving Lewis the starting SS job? The Twins "could" DFA Correa and I DO expect a team may well claim that contract on waivers because of its potential upside, but there's a risk the Twins eat $100MM on this... Not happening. Furthermore, trusting Lewis is as good as perennial MVP candidate Correa today or this year is... well... pretty aggressive.
• Arraez - Utility infielder. He has 2 options remaining, but let's get real. Arraez has proven himself to be a better than average MLB starter over the course of 275 MLB games. He's not getting demoted so Lewis can play. Even if Arraez was traded, the Twins have been primarily using him as a DH because there's already a shortage of space for infielders.
• Urshela - Arb 2 ($6.6MM). He has no options remaining so he cannot be demoted, but he has limited to no value right now. If the Twins were to DFA him, he'd probably pass through waivers, decline his assignment and become a free agent and the Twins would be on the hook for his contract. I don't know as this would be a terrible move, but certainly uncharacteristic of the front office to cut bait and eat that contract so early in the season. This would push Lewis to 3B
• Gordon - He's technically played SS a little this year, but he's not the starter and won't be. He's a utility fielder who often comes in as an injury or defensive replacement and doesn't see every day playing time. He has no options and would refuse an assignment so he'd be gone and Lewis replacing him means occasional play rather than every day opportunity.
• Miranda - Demoting him really doesn't open up any positions for Lewis, TBH. I guess Urshela could be moved to 1B and Lewis to 3B, keeping Arraez at DH but I'm sure the Twins badly want to get a look at Miranda after his performance explosion last year at AAA. Kirilloff being ready to be recalled would put the Twins right back into the same spot. Lewis can't be the reason Kirilloff stays in the minors, either.

Honestly, Lewis playing every day shortstop at AAA makes the most sense while the Twins sort out the roster picture on a larger scale. Minnesota has created some nasty log jam situations, but nobody expected Lewis to perform like this. Absolutely nobody. If somebody in Spring Training had come out and said Lewis would be OPS'ing .800 at AA so far this year, 95% of fans would have been ecstatic. Saying he was going to be OPS'ing 1.000 at AAA and continuing to rake at MLB would have been met with questions regarding sanity.

I agree with your basic analysis, but I think it is flawed because it's based upon traditional thought that your starter is going to play every day. That isn't the way modern baseball works and I think if you look at the positions that Lewis could potentially play there's at least 4 to 5 games a week for him assuming 6 games a week. So, assuming 6 games a week, here's how it could easily work:

3B -  Urshela plays 3 or 4 games a week, Lewis the other 2 or 3.

SS - Correa plays 5 games a week, sits or DHs the other, Lewis plays SS at least once a week.

2B - Polanco plays 5 games a week, either Lewis plays one game a week or Urshela moves over to 2B once a week with Lewis then playing 3 days a week at 3B.

LF - Larnach 4-5 games a week, Lewis the other 1 or 2.

DH - Once every other week.

Put all this together, and you have Lewis at 3B 3 or 4 days a week, SS once, and 2B/LF/DH once or twice and all the sudden he's playing at least 5 out of every 6 games and getting some reps at SS, albeit limited reps. None of the starters has their time significantly cut because they are going to get those off days anyway except that maybe Urshela is playing one less game a week. The people that are losing time are Gordon in LF, Celestino but he'll still get 2 or 3 games a week in CF and 1 or 2 in RF, and the Larnach/Sanchez group at DH maybe loses 1 game a week. Arraez is the everyday 1B at least against RH pitching. He may not start against LH pitching but that has nothing to do with whether or not Lewis is on the team, that's because he doesn't hit LH pitching very well.

The other factor to consider is players have to develop more than just the glove tool, they have to develop the hit tool at the MLB level. By playing Lewis roughly 5 games a week he will get 20-25 at-bats a week and develop that hit tool, all at the expense of a guy who really is never going to be more than just a utility player, Nick Gordon. That how you get him in the lineup.

 

[Riverbrian]

52 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I agree with your basic analysis, but I think it is flawed because it's based upon traditional thought that your starter is going to play every day. That isn't the way modern baseball works and I think if you look at the positions that Lewis could potentially play there's at least 4 to 5 games a week for him assuming 6 games a week. So, assuming 6 games a week, here's how it could easily work:

3B -  Urshela plays 3 or 4 games a week, Lewis the other 2 or 3.

SS - Correa plays 5 games a week, sits or DHs the other, Lewis plays SS at least once a week.

2B - Polanco plays 5 games a week, either Lewis plays one game a week or Urshela moves over to 2B once a week with Lewis then playing 3 days a week at 3B.

LF - Larnach 4-5 games a week, Lewis the other 1 or 2.

DH - Once every other week.

Put all this together, and you have Lewis at 3B 3 or 4 days a week, SS once, and 2B/LF/DH once or twice and all the sudden he's playing at least 5 out of every 6 games and getting some reps at SS, albeit limited reps. None of the starters has their time significantly cut because they are going to get those off days anyway except that maybe Urshela is playing one less game a week. The people that are losing time are Gordon in LF, Celestino but he'll still get 2 or 3 games a week in CF and 1 or 2 in RF, and the Larnach/Sanchez group at DH maybe loses 1 game a week. Arraez is the everyday 1B at least against RH pitching. He may not start against LH pitching but that has nothing to do with whether or not Lewis is on the team, that's because he doesn't hit LH pitching very well.

The other factor to consider is players have to develop more than just the glove tool, they have to develop the hit tool at the MLB level. By playing Lewis roughly 5 games a week he will get 20-25 at-bats a week and develop that hit tool, all at the expense of a guy who really is never going to be more than just a utility player, Nick Gordon. That how you get him in the lineup.

 

Yep

Or Lewis can remain static somewhere and others move around to accommodate but you are 1000% correct. Nobody needs to get splinters in their rear to accommodate the arrival of someone playing fantastic.  This is not EITHER OR extremes. 

[bean5302]

There are 150 position players who've played more than 90% of the games so far this year. Like 100 who've missed 2 games or fewer. Across the league it's uncommon to just sit guys who are healthy. Injuries happen and the Twins have had some very injury prone guys the last few years.

[Doc Munson]

It cracks me up that pretty much EVERYONE in the clubhouse said they were surprised by the move. Which begs the question, which "surprised" player thought THEY were the one who was going to be sent down, or what player(s) were thinking their time with the Twins is short lived?

Lets also nto forget that Larnach and Kirilloff are both also potentially back at some point, while neither is BETTER than Lewis, Larnach has at least proved himself ready as well. and with him on a rehab assignment should be back in LF sooner rather than later, so LF is not a place that will get Lewis AB's in the MLB.

 

BAsed on Performance, the top of the list is Miranda. His .332 just is not currently cutting it.  and no the .332 is not BA, it is not his OBP, it is not his slugging %  it is his OPS!!  LOL  I am sure he may still be a quality MLB in the future, but right now, HE needs the reset at AAA.

Based on potential positional transition:

Urshela... I am not sure if he has options, would be more of a trade. While his overall offensive numbers aren't great, he plays a nice 3B, We are not married to him for the future, so maybe sacrificing some potential defense to get a bat like Lewis is the right move.

 

and a somewhat brutal move of its own... Jorge Polanco.  Polanco is a fan and clubhouse favorite, he is coming off All-Star season, and is very well cost controlled.  Would be hard to move a longtime Twin, BUT  his numbers are down, and 2B woudl be about the easiest transition from SS on the diamond..  One has to wonder how "nervous" Polanco was getting as well.

Ultimately the right move is demote Miranda, possibly move Urshela to 1B and let Lewis play 3B