Rocco Baldelli Regaining 'Manager of the Year' Form, to the Dismay of Haters

[Richie the Rally Goat]

6 hours ago, Mark G said:

And Molitor won it two years before Rocco, and was fired for finishing 78-84 the next year.  As for this year, yes, it was a very outlandish suggestion.  But you are entitled to it.    

I don’t think Molitor or Mientkewics were fired for their record or their acumen, or coaching capability.

i don’t know why they were fired, but my guess is it had more to do with their ability to collaborate with Falvey and Levine. Modern MBA theory promotes matrix decision making over hierarchical. Mientkewics specifically was characterized in the media as “it’s my clubhouse, not your business” and Molitor kinda had that vibe, though he clearly tried to fit the matrix, but “my clubhouse” would not fit in the matrix decision making process. Putting that into context with some of Baldelli’s comments about Buxton’s health management plan and other decisions it seems clear to me that Baldelli subscribes.

that might be some of the deltas on perception we see. Being a team player in decision making doesn’t make Baldelli indecisive or Counsell decisive, it might be that the Brewers fans having had their FO somewhat longer than the Twins, might be better used to the management model in place for quite some time longer than the Twins where the Hierarchical management had been in place basically forever.

[Schmoeman5]

23 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Here's the pitching info since Rocco took over: From 2019 to today MIN has the 10th most pitching fWAR in baseball. So even with the disaster of 2021 they're top 10 in all of baseball. If we just use 2019 and 2020, you know, when HRs saved Rocco, they were 2nd in all of baseball. They're 8th in baseball in WPA since 2019. Since 2019 they're 3rd in WPA for relievers. That sounds like a pitching strategy that is working awfully well.

Here's the OBP vs SLG numbers since Rocco took over: OBP .324 good for 8th in all of baseball. SLG .450 good for 3rd in all of baseball. wRC+ 108 good for 4th in all of baseball. Runs scored 2077 good for 6th in all of baseball. There's a little room for improvement in the OBP, but they're not exactly struggling to get on base.

What's really clouding things is the continuation of the playoff game losing streak. If people want to blame Rocco for those loses that's one thing, but the stats don't match up with the rest of the narrative about him or this team since he took over. They're getting on base plenty and scoring plenty of runs during the regular season. They're pitching plenty well and getting incredible performances out of their pen during the regular season.

OK. So translate those numbers to the playoffs. You do need to win during the regular season to reach the playoffs granted, but what are those numbers come playoff time when the pressure is ratcheted up. And that's a part of managing. Getting the team ready for that 

[Schmoeman5]

2 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

OK. So translate those numbers to the playoffs. You do need to win during the regular season to reach the playoffs granted, but what are those numbers come playoff time when the pressure is ratcheted up. And that's a part of managing. Getting the team ready for that 

Case in point. When Verlander threw 7+ 1 hit innings.  Because that's what your going to face nearly every game come playoff time. 

[Cap'n Piranha]

A few things for me here.

1. If you're going to point out that Rocco was saddled with Colome, Happ, and Shoemaker last year, you certainly have to point out that he was given Gray, Paddack, Archer, Smith, and Duran (Falvine could quite easily have kept him as a starter in AAA) this year, to say nothing of Correa.  How well would the pitching staff look with those 5 gone from the MLB roster (albeit Rogers added back)?
2. We have no idea how Archer would have performed in a hypothetical 5th innning last night.  Maybe the first 4 runners reach against him, it's a 3-run inning in total, and the Twins lose 4-3.  Maybe Archer gets the side out on 11 pitches, and you can get the bullpen more rest.  After all, the 3 batters due up in the 5th (Smith, Pache, Kemp) have OPS' of .523, .431, and .570--not SLG, OPS.  The fact that the Twins pen is throwing a ton of innings is an issue, one that could haunt the team later in the year against much tougher competition than Oakland.
3. Count me in the camp that is not thrilled with the handling of Buxton--not because he's not playing, but because he's playing too much while clearly hurt.  If Buxton (or any player for that matter) is not healthy enough to play 5 out of every 6 games, then he needs to be on the IL.  Buxton has already missed 12 games, 5 after the injury, and 1 from each of the 7 series that have happened since his return.  If they had just put Buxton on the IL immediately after the Boston game, perhaps he would be fully healed, and able to play every day.  If this injury is a chronic thing that would need months to fully heal, then why are we risking a long-term serious injury in a season we're long shots to win the WS anyways?

I don 't think Rocco deserves all the blame he gets, and I think he's Ling's Palace as a manager (for fans of Brooklyn 99--he's fine.  He's just fine), but nor do I think he's a great manager.  I'm not advocating for his dismissal, but I would be not at all upset if we went in a different direction at the helm.

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, Schmoeman5 said:

OK. So translate those numbers to the playoffs. You do need to win during the regular season to reach the playoffs granted, but what are those numbers come playoff time when the pressure is ratcheted up. And that's a part of managing. Getting the team ready for that 

That's why I said the continuation of the playoff losing streak is the big part of the negative narrative. I'm not one to say it's the manager's fault that Jorge Polanco throws a routine grounder darn near into right field despite being 10 feet away from 2nd. Hard to blame Rocco for Pineda being suspended in 2019 or Buxton being hit in the head by a pitch a week or whatever before the playoffs start which left the team shorthanded. He's 0-5 in the playoffs. Not great at all, certainly. But if you're going to ignore some pretty incredible stats over 420 regular season games in favor of 5 playoff games there's no argument anyone can make against it.

If you can solve how to win consistently in the playoffs and which strategies will translate into consistent postseason wins you can pick any job you want with any team in any sport. The Dodgers sure would like some help since they've got the best regular season stats in baseball for darn near a decade and have 1 championship to show for it. The Brewers ran 3 aces and the best reliever in baseball out there last year and won 1 game. I know 1 is more than 0, but I find it hard to believe people would be happy with Rocco being 1-5 instead of 0-5.

[chpettit19]

25 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

Case in point. When Verlander threw 7+ 1 hit innings.  Because that's what your going to face nearly every game come playoff time. 

No, it isn't. The 2 teams in the world series last year each averaged less than 5 innings a start for the postseason. The Astros averaged less than 4 innings a start. And as I pointed out in my other comment, the Brewers ran 3 aces out there last year and went 1-3.

[DocBauer]

Wholeheartedly agree the manager gets too much blame at times and not enough credit at others. But they are the one in charge and they do get to make a lot of decisions, both before the game as well as during. 

Rocco "manages" the entirety of the team/clubhouse very well. And I don't think that's in doubt when you both listen and watch the players. Nothing but positive vibes. Even in the vast disappointment of 2021 the guys seemed to enjoy playing and being together and actually seemed to play better as the year went along. 

To be honest, there are times when he's pulled a pitcher, starter or reliever, and I am beside myself with frustration. Guy is pitching well and the bottom of the order is coming up? Unless he's just gassed, send him put there to save the pen. Reliever comes in and throws 5 pitches and gets out of the inning and then sits down? I don't get it. And some of his lineups have made no sense to me, even when the roster is healthy.

So yes, I disagree with him sometimes. And to be honest, I think I'm definitely right sometimes and he's wrong, lol. But I can't say he's done a bad job at all. I just think he's made mistakes at times and could do better. And the numbers are there to indicate he's been successful thus far.

I think he's growing and learning and will get better. But I think he's pretty solid, even if I don't always agree with him. And who says any of us have to agree all the time?

[Schmoeman5]

29 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

No, it isn't. The 2 teams in the world series last year each averaged less than 5 innings a start for the postseason. The Astros averaged less than 4 innings a start. And as I pointed out in my other comment, the Brewers ran 3 aces out there last year and went 1-3.

OK  Take away the innings pitched. I'm referring to the caliber. And this is Verlander in 2022  not 2015

[chpettit19]

Just now, Schmoeman5 said:

OK  Take away the innings pitched. I'm referring to the caliber. And this is Verlander in 2022  not 2015

And I'm saying that's not what they're facing. At least not every time out. If the Braves and Astros had guys throwing like Verlander was the other night they'd have averaged more than 5 innings a start. The Astros had 1 pitcher go 8 innings in a start (I think it was Valdez, but could be wrong) because he was throwing so well. But since Morton, Fried, Anderson, et al for Atlanta, and Grienke, Valdez, Garcia, et al for the Astros weren't throwing like Verlander a few days ago they didn't get so many innings. This idea that every playoff team is running out a staff of aces is wrong. They're not. Many of them have at least 1 ace, yes. What some of them have are guys with names you might recognize. But if the Twins are a top 5 pitching team (which they were in 2019 and 2020) and a top 5 offensive team (which they were) in the regular season it's because they can get good hitters out and hit good pitching. 5 games is a super small sample size. It just gets blown up because it's the playoffs and the Twins are historically bad in them the last 20 or so years.

[Schmoeman5]

12 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

14 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

And I'm saying that's not what they're facing. At least not every time out. If the Braves and Astros had guys throwing like Verlander was the other night they'd have averaged more than 5 innings a start. The Astros had 1 pitcher go 8 innings in a start (I think it was Valdez, but could be wrong) because he was throwing so well. But since Morton, Fried, Anderson, et al for Atlanta, and Grienke, Valdez, Garcia, et al for the Astros weren't throwing like Verlander a few days ago they didn't get so many innings. This idea that every playoff team is running out a staff of aces is wrong. They're not. Many of them have at least 1 ace, yes. What some of them have are guys with names you might recognize. But if the Twins are a top 5 pitching team (which they were in 2019 and 2020) and a top 5 offensive team (which they were) in the regular season it's because they can get good hitters out and hit good pitching. 5 games is a super small sample size. It just gets blown up because it's the playoffs and the Twins are historically bad in them the last 20 or so years.

 

OK. Keep playing to win the regular season. Ask that young Seattle team that won 116 regular season games if they felt like they had a successful season and I guarantee you to a man they'll tell you they came up short

[chpettit19]

Just now, Schmoeman5 said:

OK. Keep playing to win the regular season. Ask that young Seattle team that won 116 regular season games if they felt like they had a successful season and I guarantee you to a man they'll tell you they came up short

What does "playing to win the regular season" even mean? Is the argument that the game is drastically different in the playoffs? I'm sure those players would say that. 29 teams every single season to a man would tell you they came up short. You do know only 1 team wins the World Series every year, right? Again, I don't think Rocco having a 1-5 or 2-5 postseason record would change many opinions.

Again, if you can tell people the secret code to winning in the postseason you can have any job with any team in any sport. I have some connections in the Twins FO and I'd be happy to pass the code along and just get you a nice consulting fee of a few million if that's all you're looking for and not a fulltime job. Let me know what strategies you think they're missing. Here's a free fact on strategies: HRs are one of the "stickiest" stats from regular season to postseason. So HR rate for hitters changes very little between the regular season and postseason. The Twins built a HR bashing machine in 2019 then stopped hitting HRs in the playoffs. What should Rocco have done differently to fix that? Should the FO not build teams that hit HRs in the regular season because you don't like it even though a hundred years worth of stats say you're wrong?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

5 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Dropping in to say I enjoy the jab at SkorNorth in the OP. They’re a group of hacks that manufacture outrage and ridiculous takes. 

Can we all agree in our disdain for SkorNorth?

[TheLeviathan]

1 hour ago, Schmoeman5 said:

OK. So translate those numbers to the playoffs. You do need to win during the regular season to reach the playoffs granted, but what are those numbers come playoff time when the pressure is ratcheted up. And that's a part of managing. Getting the team ready for that 

The playoffs are everything wrong with a tiny sample size.  Unless you want to tell me the key to World Series runs is picking up two guys in trades who are about to be DFA'd and then have them hit like Babe Ruth for two months is a plan.  Or maybe the 2020 Dodgers?  You know, the team that was about to be imploded if it failed for the tenth year in a row with their eleventy trillion dollar payroll.

Making judgments on much of anything based on the playoffs is foolishness.

[LastOnePicked]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I find it hard to believe people would be happy with Rocco being 1-5 instead of 0-5.

You're making a ton a good points in your posts, but, yes, even one win to break the 0-18 streak would have meant a lot. 1-5 is bad, but even that low bar would represent progress to an understandably weary fanbase. 

Is that entirely fair to Rocco? Nope. Is life fair? Also nope.

[chpettit19]

6 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

You're making a ton a good points in your posts, but, yes, even one win to break the 0-18 streak would have meant a lot. 1-5 is bad, but even that low bar would represent progress to an understandably weary fanbase. 

Is that entirely fair to Rocco? Nope. Is life fair? Also nope.

That's fair. 1 win after 0-18 would be nice.

[Danchat]

Agreed with several of the other posts, Rocco is a fine manager and takes a lot of blame for things that are out of his control or is just part of the modern game of baseball. I just don't think managers make much of an impact, and say if you fire him, Falvine is probably hiring a slightly different version of him that's going to do many similar things because of how much a collaboration the whole operation is. 

It just annoys me that when anything goes wrong I see "this loss is on Rocco", and then when things are going well, he rarely draws credit (I usually hear "the Bomba Squad carried him" or "his record is only good because they're in the NL central"). But there are plenty of moves that he makes that I question, no doubt. But I'm not going to fall into the mindset that I know better (because it feels like a lot of baseball fans I know from other teams all think their manager is bad at decision-making).

Manager of the Year? That's gonna be a hard no from me. But I'm interested to know which managers consistently get more from the players, make better lineups, make better bullpen decisions... no that I doubt that there are any, just that I never hear or see any managers making huge differences compared to the likes of Rocco.

[old nurse]

7 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

The dobnak and odorizzi was a statement  of sending a rookie out there in front of the worst hecklers  of a visiting team  , 

Experience still would have been my choice with odorizzi  but they claimed odorizzi had a winning record at target field  and he did pitch fairly well  .... but we went 3 and out .

1 bunt , hurray  ,,  

How about  stealing bases , hit and run  , situational hitting with runners on base  ,,, or 2 strikes and batters making adjustments ,,,,  see arreaz for adjustments  , bats like gwynn and hits like carew , love that major leaguer 

Catchers aren't as good as they once were at throwing out base stealers , when we have trouble scoring runs , steal bases and get runners in scoring position  

I love the homerun that is a game changer but not the solo  homers that almost never won the game ...

 

A complete 180 degree change in the way baseball is played  sucks  , but I'm still a follower of the twins and   of all baseball teams ..

i live for opening day and the world series and everything in between  ...

You don't have to be a follower to be successful and stop executing the way baseball was intended to be played  ,,,

Watch other teams  manager's manage in game decisions and strategy  ,,,

this was a discussion of our manager

Statistics show that even an average base stealer will cost the team more  runs than they will gain. When base stealing is left to the more talented at it the catchers throwing people out percentage will go down

HR per team is at about 1 per game per team. That is historical average.  Runs are at around where they have always been. So either runs are coming via the grand slam, or there is still old fashioned baseball. Except of course, the out to make an out

[darwin22]

Although I was one of the first to respond to this article last night---stating that christening Baldelli as MOY was a very hyperbolic comment to make, I was wondering if the author of this story is STILL standing by the following comment:

"Baldelli is quietly making an argument as the best bullpen manager in baseball"

Asking this tonight as Baldelli just totally hung Josh Winder out to dry in the 7th inning.

For those who watched the game------Winder's command was "at best" average to below average. Starting his 4th inning of relief in the 7th in a TIE game, you'd think Baldelli would at least have a RP warming up.  Nothing.  Ok, lets see how Winder does.  1st batter, walk.  Still no activity in pen.  Next batter, Laureano----HBP.  Now with pitch count at 62 (same pitch count that Archer was taken out last night), Baldelli leaves Winder in and STILL has no RP warming up.  RBI double gives A's 3-2 lead.  Pitch count for Winder at 65.  And guess what?  STILL NO ACTIVITY in bullpen.  Of course, Murphy follows with a doink 2- RBI single to put game at 5-2.  Pitch count at 68.   And now.....just now---our supposed "best bullpen manager in baseball" finally decides to make the call to get Thielbar warmed up.  10 pitches later----which produced 2 more singles-------Rocco FINALLY figures out that Winder needs to come out and brings in Thielbar.

Totally inexcusable.

 

[Blyleven2011]

7 hours ago, darwin22 said:

Totally inexcusable 

Totally  agree 

[Mill1634]

I expect a cherry picked article about last nights blunder now. 

[Nick Nelson]

6 hours ago, Mill1634 said:

I expect a cherry picked article about last nights blunder now. 

Well then you're missing the point of this one, because it is not that Baldelli never does wrong or that he's primarily responsible for any win. It's that there are thousands of negative takes out there about his mistakes or questionable calls gone wrong, and rarely an acknowledgement of what he might be doing right.

I took an opportunity to congratulate him on a well-managed game and a successful season so far. It is genuinely astonishing to me how grumpy people -- Twins fans! -- are getting about it. 

[Nick Nelson]

16 hours ago, darwin22 said:

Asking this tonight as Baldelli just totally hung Josh Winder out to dry in the 7th inning.

For those who watched the game------Winder's command was "at best" average to below average. Starting his 4th inning of relief in the 7th in a TIE game, you'd think Baldelli would at least have a RP warming up.  Nothing.  Ok, lets see how Winder does.  1st batter, walk.  Still no activity in pen.  Next batter, Laureano----HBP.  Now with pitch count at 62 (same pitch count that Archer was taken out last night), Baldelli leaves Winder in and STILL has no RP warming up.  RBI double gives A's 3-2 lead.  Pitch count for Winder at 65.  And guess what?  STILL NO ACTIVITY in bullpen.  Of course, Murphy follows with a doink 2- RBI single to put game at 5-2.  Pitch count at 68.   And now.....just now---our supposed "best bullpen manager in baseball" finally decides to make the call to get Thielbar warmed up.  10 pitches later----which produced 2 more singles-------Rocco FINALLY figures out that Winder needs to come out and brings in Thielbar.

Totally inexcusable.

 

As resident "Rock Head" I feel it's my duty to point out that this was their bullpen setup coming in to last night's game (minus Cotton, who'd been DFA'ed):

 

You're saving Duran for a lead (and maybe trying to avoid using him, two days after back-to-back). Cano's not an option. Everyone else has thrown multiple times in the last 3 days. They were going to be putting some arms at risk if that game went to extras. Meanwhile they're trying to keep Winder stretched out to start.

Not trying to defend the move or say I would've done it, but I don't find it inexcusable or even all that inexplicable. 

There's something very funny to me about people losing their wits because the Twins went 5-1 against Oakland instead of 6-0. Sometimes you lose! 

[darwin22]

35 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

As resident "Rock Head" I feel it's my duty to point out that this was their bullpen setup coming in to last night's game (minus Cotton, who'd been DFA'ed):

 

You're saving Duran for a lead (and maybe trying to avoid using him, two days after back-to-back). Cano's not an option. Everyone else has thrown multiple times in the last 3 days. They were going to be putting some arms at risk if that game went to extras. Meanwhile they're trying to keep Winder stretched out to start.

Not trying to defend the move or say I would've done it, but I don't find it inexcusable or even all that inexplicable. 

There's something very funny to me about people losing their wits because the Twins went 5-1 against Oakland instead of 6-0. Sometimes you lose! 

Nick:  I really wonder if you watched the game because if you had you'd have to agree that Winder labored heavily through his 3 IP throwing right at 60 pitches.  My argument with Baldelli is that he failed to relieve Winder when it was VERY OBVIOUS that he was running on fumes.  Why did he wait so long to get Thielbar even started warming up until the games was pretty much over?  I can see your point to an extent (other RPs not being available) but imo, its a pretty thin argument as Stashak was another option having only 13 pitches on Monday and hadn't been used the previous 2 days.  I guess we can agree to disagree.  

[USAFChief]

On 5/17/2022 at 8:01 PM, old nurse said:

Statistics show that even an average base stealer will cost the team more  runs than they gain

 

HR per team is at about 1 per game per team. That is historical average.  

A generally accepted rule of thumb is a 75% success rate or better makes the attempts worth it. 

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/standard-stats/stolen-base-percentage

 

As for HRs, they've been on a gradual and sporadic, but constant, increase for decades (as have Ks). Last year 27 of 30 MLB teams averaged more than 1 HR per game, led by Toronto at 1.62.

 

https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stat/home-runs-per-game?date=2008-10-28

 

 

 

[MMMordabito]

This article isn't aging well.