Chris Paddack UCL

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

How are they supposed to get to the opportunity for 60 good high impact innings without starting pitching? Twins bullpen is currently #2 in all of baseball in Win Probability Added. So to this point the doomed pen without Rogers has provided 118.2 innings of good high impact innings. I suppose you could argue they'd be #1 in baseball if they still had Rogers, but I'm a simple guy who thinks #2 is probably good enough to win a division and maybe even a playoff game or 2.

I hope you're right. When they've won the division and maybe a playoff game or two, I'll reexamine the bullpen.

[Danchat]

1 hour ago, shortround81 said:

Not to go down the rabbit hole but Dyson also turned out to be a huge POS as a person, too. Yeah, one could argue "off the field is off the field" but breaking the jaw of a teammate in a bar fight and alleged sexual assault are different than just being a do****. I'm guessing there is very little time spent vetting that sort-of thing on top of just passing a physical when it comes to trades

I am aware of this, but my point was about comparing these two trades where the pitchers developed serious (potentially for Paddack) right after being acquired. Tons of people here were slamming the Twins for trading for a guy who immediately got hurt, which to me seemed unfair since it seemed they had no idea his shoulder was going to need surgery (this was before we learned about his horrid personality). Comparing to Paddack, we had heard that other teams had some level of concern with his UCL.

[TheLeviathan]

1 hour ago, Unwinder said:

I think the Rogers trade was reasonable, not stellar, and that the trade value took into account the risk of Paddack blowing out his elbow. A gamble going the wrong way doesn't mean it was a bad gamble. I was lukewarm on that trade then, and I'm lukewarm on it now.

You and your reasonable take arrived at the wrong thread methinks.

[TheLeviathan]

The Twins are 18-11, sport an exciting group of young pitchers acquired in all sorts of ways (including trades in several prominent cases), and have called up a host of exciting young hitters that are developing nicely despite a pandemic really screwing up their timetable.

But the usual suspects? "ThE FrOnt OfFicE is DumB.  Derp"  One year of a reliever for three years of a starter is a gamble I'll take every time.  I hope Paddock has a quick recovery and I hope Taylor Rogers continues to have a great year.  More than that, I hope the FO keeps taking bold swings at upside without letting injuries deter their process.

[Brock Beauchamp]

3 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

The Twins are 18-11, sport an exciting group of young pitchers acquired in all sorts of ways (including trades in several prominent cases), and have called up a host of exciting young hitters that are developing nicely despite a pandemic really screwing up their timetable.

But the usual suspects? "ThE FrOnt OfFicE is DumB.  Derp"  One year of a reliever for three years of a starter is a gamble I'll take every time.  I hope Paddock has a quick recovery and I hope Taylor Rogers continues to have a great year.  More than that, I hope the FO keeps taking bold swings at upside without letting injuries deter their process.

You win some, you lose some. The Twins took a gamble and it looks like they may be facing a loss, at least in the short-term. Trading for any pitcher is a risk and I feel the Twins mitigated their Paddack risk pretty well with the PTBNL.

It should be noted that the Twins currently have a 103mph flamethrower co-closer who was acquired via a highly ridiculed 2018 trade so maybe constantly living in the present while judging transactions isn't such a great baseball take.

[TheLeviathan]

Just now, Brock Beauchamp said:

You win some, you lose some. The Twins took a gamble and it looks like they may be facing a loss, at least in the short-term. Trading for any pitcher is a risk and I feel the Twins mitigated their Paddack risk pretty well with the PTBNL.

It should be noted that the Twins currently have a 103mph flamethrower co-closer who was acquired via a highly ridiculed 2018 trade so maybe constantly living in the present while judging transactions isn't such a great baseball take.

I also had Jhoan Duran in my head as I was posting.  Some of the same people who were stomping and whining at that trade sure aren't complaining as he buzzes through hitters out of our bullpen right now.  

[howeda7]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

We should let the team know they aren't serious about contending so their bullpen quits producing (#2 in baseball in Win Probability Added, so they've been really, really good at getting hitters out in clutch situations) and they start losing and quit being in first. They seem confused as all those "no back-up plan" guys have replaced Rogers and performed well. I'll let them know they're all supposed to suck cuz the Twins traded Taylor Rogers on opening day.

I never said the entire bullpen sucked. They have done well overall. But they have no closer. And the grace of the baseball Gods is the only reason they don't have at least 2 more blown saves.

[howeda7]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Why do you count on him zero for next year? He'll be back on a mound by spring training (assuming this injury leads to TJ and he goes with the new version that everyone seems to be using). He should be able to pitch almost the entire season next year so you must be assuming he'll take at least the entire season to get his stuff or control back. Seems like a real bold statement.

You do realize a closer isn't needed if the starter doesn't do their job first, right? Starting pitching never, ever, ever, ever takes the back seat to relievers. You could be the closer for the Twins this year and it wouldn't cost them anything in terms of the ability to contend if the rotation was full of 5 other TD posters. You can't close a game for a save if the starter put you in a 5 run hole.

I believe 12 months is still the realistic return time (rather than closer to 18 previously.) Maeda had the "new" surgery last August I believe and he might be available in September. So I'd be surprised if Paddock in the rotation before next June. Certainly in terms of how I'd approach next off-season, it would be with the assumption of nothing from Paddock. Anything he does in 23 is a bonus.

 

Further, the track record of guys the 1st year after TJS isn't great. So while he may give us innings they may not be great. And he was a reclamation project to begin with. The early signs this year were positive. If he an be a solid #3 in 2024 that is about all we can hope for now IMO.

[chpettit19]

14 minutes ago, howeda7 said:

I never said the entire bullpen sucked. They have done well overall. But they have no closer. And the grace of the baseball Gods is the only reason they don't have at least 2 more blown saves.

They didn't have a closer when Rogers was here. Rogers has never been "the closer" for the Twins. It's not how the Twins ever used him. He closed some games, yes, but we was never the closer. That's not how they run their bullpen.

[Shaitan]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

You do realize a closer isn't needed if the starter doesn't do their job first, right? Starting pitching never, ever, ever, ever takes the back seat to relievers. You could be the closer for the Twins this year and it wouldn't cost them anything in terms of the ability to contend if the rotation was full of 5 other TD posters. You can't close a game for a save if the starter put you in a 5 run hole.

To speed up the game, I believe the new Manfred Rule starts games in the 7th inning.

[chpettit19]

13 minutes ago, howeda7 said:

I believe 12 months is still the realistic return time (rather than closer to 18 previously.) Maeda had the "new" surgery last August I believe and he might be available in September. So I'd be surprised if Paddock in the rotation before next June. Certainly in terms of how I'd approach next off-season, it would be with the assumption of nothing from Paddock. Anything he does in 23 is a bonus.

 

Further, the track record of guys the 1st year after TJS isn't great. So while he may give us innings they may not be great. And he was a reclamation project to begin with. The early signs this year were positive. If he an be a solid #3 in 2024 that is about all we can hope for now IMO.

I'm certainly not suggesting they count on him as a key member of the opening day rotation, but it's quite extreme to suggest they shouldn't expect anything out of him at all. Even if he doesn't debut until June next year that's still 2/3 of the season he'd be pitching.

[Eris]

When he was with the Twins, Ervin Santana was said to have a partial tear in his UCL. I went looking for an article and found some described it as a sprained UCL. Not sure of the difference, but Ervin Santana pitch effectively for many years on that elbow with out needing surgery.  My point is that a partial tear does not necessarily mean TJ.   Also I have linked another article from 2018 that indicates that 25% of the MLB pitchers have TJS at some point in their career. 
 

I think most FO see TJ as a risk that has to be mitigated with appropriate depth. 
 

https://www.lonestarball.com/platform/amp/2009/3/29/814424/bp-on-hurt-angels-pitchers

 

https://www.billjamesonline.com/tommy_john_surgery_in_major_league_baseball/

[h2oface]

Hated the trade at the time. Hate it more now. I wanted Rogers. Still do. Just because the pen has been ultra lucky doesn't mean it is sustainable. Quote all the stat noise you want. Paddack was damaged when traded for and is not going to do the Twins a bit of good for his whole 2 years now. Ane Pagan is a ticking time bomb. I can't believe folks are trying to say he has been anything other than untra lucky so far. That won't last. I could care less about Rooker. This is all about the arrogance of trading Rogers. They blew it.

[DocBauer]

I could have easily liked a dozen or more comments here, but didn't simply due to time, (hurrying to get caught up), and because I agree with both sides here. 

To Eris's point, unless I am mistaken, a sprain or tear of a ligament is the same thing. That's what a sprain is, IIRC. But any sprain/tear can be minor to major, meaning a complete tear. Minor tears/sprains can heal through therapy and time. Sometimes they never get worse. Sometimes they tear all the way. It would appear the Twins believed Paddack's risk was worthwhile. And I agree that IF he's hurt more seriously and needs surgery, it doesn't mean he can't be part of this rotation in '23-24 and potentially beyond. 

I remain mixed on the trade, to be honest. I applaud a number of the moves made for this year, and also applaud the FO for their belief in their young talent, pitching in this case, to be precise: Ryan, Ober, Winder, Duran, Jax, and others that may yet make a mark before the year is done. The Archer move looks very smart and could pay huge dividends! I remain so-so on Bundy until I see how he responds. 

Any way you slice it, gaining a young SP with tons of potential, a decent BP arm, and an interesting prospect for a RP is a smart move at the end of the day.

But while I generally like how this team was built, I still maintain a missed opportunity is the entire reason we're having this discussion to begin with. A $14-15M arm signed before the lockout would have helped stabilized the rotation, without breaking the bank, and have allowed the Twins to keep Rogers and the Paddack trade wouldn't have even been necessary. 

And I'm NOT blasting the FO. But if we're going to applaud moves and development, it's OK and fair if we also point out mistakes or missed opportunity. 

So, again, I'm split on the trade. It just wasn't a BAD trade. But it's a trade I feel didn't have to be made.

We still have rotation depth, and more on the way. Paddack doesn't make or break the season, though things look better if he can rest and work and come back. But I don't think we're in desperation mode if he's out.

[h2oface]

2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

It should be noted that the Twins currently have a 103mph flamethrower co-closer who was acquired via a highly ridiculed 2018 trade so maybe constantly living in the present while judging transactions isn't such a great baseball take.

Haven't you heard? The Twins Management says, many times, they don't have a closer, period, which means they certainly can't have 2!  

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 minute ago, h2oface said:

Haven't you heard? The Twins Management says, many times, they don't have a closer, period, which means they certainly can't have 2!  

Well, someone has to pitch the ninth inning. By the very definition of the word, that makes them a closer.

[h2oface]

Just now, Brock Beauchamp said:

Well, someone has to pitch the ninth inning. By the very definition of the word, that makes them a closer.

So you don't believe the Management and what they say?

That makes sense, makes sense to me....... but it is not what they say, eh?

But I disagree about the classic definition for baseball. Many words can have multiple meanings and nuances for different situations. Just because you pitch the 9th inning, a 9th innng, it doesn't necessarily make you a closer, and doesn't necessarily earn one that title, which in baseball, is what "Closer", with a capital "C" is. You may have been in a closing role in that game, but that still doesn't make you a closer, by "baseball" definition. 

But then, there is always the "actions speak louder than words" reality.

[GNess]

Yes, there was a somewhat elevated risk in dealing for Paddack. But risk and reward are what all trades reflect. Even if Paddack goes down for the season, the reward could still be the two following seasons. Two seasons in which it is highly doubtful Rogers would have been pitching in high leverage situations for the Twins.  Not to mention Pagan is a decent reliever and they added a pitching prospect while surrendering Rooker who seemingly was going no where with the Twins.

Further, to a good number of the TD Community the FO can do no right. But saying they don't know what they are doing is a bit much. Clearly, they have assembled a team that can contend in the division, has a pretty respectable upside with the young pitching and position player at MLB and Minors levels.

[gil4]

6 hours ago, goulik said:

Don't Forget we also got Brayan Medina!! We won't truly know the full impact of this trade for a long long time lol

Unfortunately, we also got the ghost of Ron Davis wearing Pagan on the back of his shirt. 

[KirbyDome89]

5 hours ago, Unwinder said:

I think the Rogers trade was reasonable, not stellar, and that the trade value took into account the risk of Paddack blowing out his elbow. A gamble going the wrong way doesn't mean it was a bad gamble. I was lukewarm on that trade then, and I'm lukewarm on it now.

I think the trade value hinged on the gamble that he wouldn't. I doubt (hope) the Twins didn't think a PTBNL and a cast off relief arm was insurance against a likely elbow injury. 

[jimbo92107]

If Paddack does have TJ surgery, it means the Twins can no longer dawdle about bringing up Cole Sands. If Bundy has one more bad start, time to bring up Jordan Balazovic. 

[LastOnePicked]

8 hours ago, USAFChief said:

8 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm here for the " this front office is bad at their jobs" takes. Despite, you know, actually being good...

I'm here for those defending a really questionable trade that a contender just doesn't make.

Don't mind me, I'm here for both of these takes.

I was for against this trade before I was for it. Now I just feel bad for Paddack, and happy for Winder.

All that said, there was some debate here on TD over whether Tingler was consulted about Paddack's arm health before the trade. Either he wasn't, or he didn't know much. Looks like Padres got away with one here, because I don't see a guy coming back and making any kind of impact after two TJ surgeries. We'll see if the PTBNL pans out.

[tony&rodney]

Chris Paddack has some talent and if he can get his arm healthy there is a chance he can still have a fair baseball career. Hopefully he receives the treatment he needs and can look forward. 

The best time to debate/argue trades is at the time of the trade. One side of the trade was supportive of adding Paddack, Pagan, and a PTBNL, largely because many saw this as acquiring assets for the future. The other side thought it reckless to trade your only reliable relief pitcher and pay his salary to boot for some players the Padres didn't have positions for on their roster. What's done is done. Rogers is gone and he ain't coming back (nod to Springsteen).

[Brock Beauchamp]

10 hours ago, h2oface said:

So you don't believe the Management and what they say?

That makes sense, makes sense to me....... but it is not what they say, eh?

But I disagree about the classic definition for baseball. Many words can have multiple meanings and nuances for different situations. Just because you pitch the 9th inning, a 9th innng, it doesn't necessarily make you a closer, and doesn't necessarily earn one that title, which in baseball, is what "Closer", with a capital "C" is. You may have been in a closing role in that game, but that still doesn't make you a closer, by "baseball" definition. 

But then, there is always the "actions speak louder than words" reality.

I don't think it maters. Whether you call a person a "closer", a "bullpen ace", or a "late-inning reliever", it's all saying the same thing: you trust them with close leads late in games. Whether you have one person or three in that role isn't really important.

[Riverbrian]

13 hours ago, howeda7 said:

I never said the entire bullpen sucked. They have done well overall. But they have no closer. And the grace of the baseball Gods is the only reason they don't have at least 2 more blown saves.

You clearly place a lot of value in the closer position. 

Is it possible that the front office doesn't have the same valuation? 

10 front offices in baseball this year have purposely chosen committee or co-closer bullpens. 

[Riverbrian]

The fact that Paddack is injured illustrates the reason why you trade for him. 

[wabene]

13 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

They didn't have a closer when Rogers was here. Rogers has never been "the closer" for the Twins. It's not how the Twins ever used him. He closed some games, yes, but we was never the closer. That's not how they run their bullpen.

This is the truth. This is why I've been on a "closer" rant myself. Rogers did have 30 saves one year, 2019, but no other year with double digit saves with the Twins. What the Twins found out in '19 were Rogers limitations in that role. All pitchers' performance suffers in the second game of back to back games, but Taylor's results were among the most stark. I remember some bad blown saves from him that cemented in my brain that I would avoid using him back to back. He also wore down as the year went on that year. It is interesting that the Padres are using him as a traditional closer. In '19 he saved 30 of 36 games, this year he's at 12 of 13 which is a better percentage than he had previously and really good. I will be watching how he holds up.

There are some guys who shine in the closer role, can operate well back to back. Even those guys need a break. Remember Joe Nathan pitching so well in the playoffs until they flat out rode him too hard and made him suffer a horrible defeat to those that won't be mentioned. Will Rogers hold up this year? I don't know. I do know that any good bullpen needs multiple high leverage arms and if a team replies too much on one guy it could haunt them at the worst time. Don't be a closer poser. 

[Tim]

I wanna know the IP address half these comments are being sent from. I'm like 99% certain someones got a few burners in here haha.

[cheeseheadgophfan]

18 hours ago, Danchat said:

I am aware of this, but my point was about comparing these two trades where the pitchers developed serious (potentially for Paddack) right after being acquired. Tons of people here were slamming the Twins for trading for a guy who immediately got hurt, which to me seemed unfair since it seemed they had no idea his shoulder was going to need surgery (this was before we learned about his horrid personality). Comparing to Paddack, we had heard that other teams had some level of concern with his UCL.

Twins gave up Jaylin Davis for Dyson, correct?  Who cares?

As for Paddock, he sure passed the eye test for me.  Young, good fastball/change, developing curve, and great control.  We got him for 3 years.  They weren't going to sign Rogers after this year, as they don't spend on closers.  I think Pagan is much more than just a "throw in"....he might not be the closer (I hope that's Duran), but he's a valuable bullpen are.  

[h2oface]

16 hours ago, jimbo92107 said:

If Paddack does have TJ surgery, it means the Twins can no longer dawdle about bringing up Cole Sands. If Bundy has one more bad start, time to bring up Jordan Balazovic. 

Have you noticed how awful Sands has been in St Paul this year?