Let’s look ahead to the trade deadline. What does this team still need?

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, alexthegreat said:

Interesting. You usually don’t see trades happen this early.

Everything seems to have changed in baseball but front offices willing to pay a bit more in trades earlier in the season. I would be willing to overpay a bit for a relief pitcher that will help for 5 months instead of 3. Plus it gives you more time to figure out what might help the team closer to the deadline.

Say the Twins go out and trade for a Bard, Melancon, or Bednar type and it they fit nicely into the back end of the bullpen. Then maybe at the deadline they could get other help, instead of trying to overhaul the whole team at once.

[Rosterman]

The Twins should have a good idea of their "prospect" depth by the trade deadline, and see who is blocked, who is excelling and increased their worth, as well as who they might have 40-man issues in the future.

At the trade deadline, the Twins MAY need to trade for a topflight temporary starter (say Grienke-like). Part of the issue is we still don't know how Bundy and Archer will pan out over the next 10 starts, and people like Ryan, Winder and Ober still need to stay at an inning limit, but also be able to pitch in a post-season if it comes to that. 

Rotation choices from the minors are slim or none, both with the question marks of what we have on staff (Rodriguez, Gonzalez, et al), or also in need of innings (Sands, Balazovic, Henriquez and I doubt the Twins will add anyone from the current AA staff unless the team overall tanks).

Sadly the next need would be a closer, better than Pagan. Again, the Twins could do a rental. You'd like to think that if they can keep winning, attendance will skyrocket and they could push their payroll more towards $150 million. But they need someone like Taylor Rogers, who the team already deemed too expensive (although we are p[aying his salary msotly for this season).

Hopefully the dust settles on the team as a whole. Can they live with Sanchez and Jeffers as catchers or do they need to bring in another body? Would the Twins be willing to go after a pure designated hitter (reunion with Nelson Cruz, perhaps) or stick with what they have. 

There is not a lot of wrangling room on the 40-man roster once everyone comes back healthy. You'd think Sano can go on the long-term, but he would come abck before season's end, creating those problems. Dobnak could return, as well as Alcala.

Players on the bubble remain: Romero, Vallimont, Strotman, Godoy, Garlick. Dobnak could be outrighted as I doubt anyone would pick up his salary without him showcasing himself more in AAA ball once he is eligible to return. Again, Acala, Sano, maybe Maeda would dip into the above.

The Twins themselves could become traders, but more than likely the pieces departing would just be replaced by upgrades. Smith, Thielbar, Bundy, Archer could all be pieces. Even Pagan and Stashak...as you might want to replace with better bullpen arms. The worry is how musical chairs in the Twins bullpen will pan out, as well as keep the team in competition. You'd think Moran and Cano will be mainstays at some point.

The team has to stay healthy. We have to see how they play against really good teams (like the Dodgers showcase showed). You can't let teams like the Orioles and Royals beat you either.

Right now the front office is worried about May results, as they want to go into the summer with a team to sell and to fill the stands and move concessions (one forgets the real importance of baseball play by the front office at times). Will they just want to stay competitive and "show" a chance for the post-season, or go all in, yet still not lose ALL the prospects that can make or break the team in the next 2-3 years. The Twins have a lot of names in the minors that may never find space on the 40-man, and better to move them now for pieces to keep you in the winner's circle than just see them walk...or stagnate.

 

[RpR]

15 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

RPR, just out of curiosity, what parts of my post are most troublesome for you?

 

I’d like to think we have some assets to consider trading, but a possible top three of Urshele, Sano and Sanchez might not have much value based on performance and cost.

[Cap'n Piranha]

To start, the Twins have played a decent schedule so far, going up against 5 teams widely considered playoff teams (or at least strong playoff contenders) in their first 29 games--4 against SEA, 2 against LAD, 4 against BOS, 3 against CWS, and 3 against TBR--16 games total.  Granted, Seattle and Boston both look weaker than expected, but there's still plenty of talent on both of those teams, and the Twins split against them.  The real question is how much stock to put into the 2 non-competitive losses against LAD, as opposed to the 5-1 record against Tampa and Chicago.

As far as needs, for me the biggest is actually a starting pitcher at least as good as Sonny Gray.  There's no way Ryan, Ober, and Winder can pitch at current rates for the entire year, and still be effective in October, so unless the Twins want Archer or Bundy to be the inning eater that lets you skip those 3 a couple times in the second half, you'll need someone else.  This of course also assumes that Paddack can return in short order and be effective, and that there are no other injuries, so at least a #2, and ideally a #1 (if the Twins want to actually make noise in October, not just participate).  The names potentially in play here are Kelly from ARI, Zimmerman from BAL (would require a lot, as he only has 1 year of service time),  Montas from OAK, Mahle from CIN, and Kuhl from COL.  Kuhl should be pretty gettable, as he is a FA at the end of the year.  I don't think any of those profile as a sure #1.

Next on my list for needs is a bullpen Alpha that can be your traditional closer, and take the 9th anytime you have a lead.  This would allow Duran, Smith, and (hopefully) Duffey/Pagan/Alcala/Coulombe to be deployed in spots where they'd be most effective, and then use Jax as a multi-inning guy to get you through the 5th and 6th or 6th and 7th.

Finally, it's possible another bat might be needed, but I want to hold on that, to see if Miranda, Larnach, Lewis, and/or Kiriloff can be contributors.  If 2 of those can become impact bats, adding that to an Arraez/Buxton/Correa/Polanco top 4 gives you a good enough lineup, in my opinion.  If more than 2 materialize this year, we're in good shape with Jeffers/Kepler as our wrost bats.

 

When I look at all this, my thought is to wonder if this is the year to make moves.  When considering that our starting staff next year shapes up to be Gray, Maeda, Paddack, Ryan, Ober, and Winder, with hopefully Balazovic, SWR, Varland, and Canterino ready to fill in, and those 10 guys would cost maybe $30M, next year seems to be the year you can really have some ability to do things, especially if Miranda, Laranch, Lewis, and Kiriloff establish themselves in the lineup.  Because of that, I think this is the year to stand pat and let the teams gel, unless you're able to swing a deal that is too good to pass up (say Montas for Canterino and CES for example, or Josh Bell for Cavaco perhaps).

[MTV]

A closer to compliment Duran’s rise would help (the Braves will probably look to trade Will Smith), and I think we should trade Trevor Larnach and try for someone that can play all 3 outfield positions (Cubs could be looking to trade Ian Happ). As for the rotation, it really just depends on how everyone performs. How Will Paddack, Archer, and Bundy play out? Are Ober, Winder, and Ryan official and trustworthy in the postseason? I think the Twins should get a lefty end-of-the-rotation pitcher (Drew Smyly, Wade Miley from the cubs as well). 
 

as for trade pieces, with the upbringing of Royce Lewis and Jose Miranda along with Luis Arraez, I think Gio Urshela unfortunately is the odd man out and should be shipped off. The same goes for Trevor Larnach, maybe swap Gary Sanchez with a left-hitting Catcher or try to move anyone that underperforms 

[Rosterman]

39 minutes ago, MTV said:

A closer to compliment Duran’s rise would help (the Braves will probably look to trade Will Smith), and I think we should trade Trevor Larnach and try for someone that can play all 3 outfield positions (Cubs could be looking to trade Ian Happ). As for the rotation, it really just depends on how everyone performs. How Will Paddack, Archer, and Bundy play out? Are Ober, Winder, and Ryan official and trustworthy in the postseason? I think the Twins should get a lefty end-of-the-rotation pitcher (Drew Smyly, Wade Miley from the cubs as well). 
 

as for trade pieces, with the upbringing of Royce Lewis and Jose Miranda along with Luis Arraez, I think Gio Urshela unfortunately is the odd man out and should be shipped off. The same goes for Trevor Larnach, maybe swap Gary Sanchez with a left-hitting Catcher or try to move anyone that underperforms 

Sanchez would be one to also think about moving, but if teams are looking for catchers, who do YOU get to replace. No one in the system strong to step-in as a reasonable backup.

Also, at this point, I would dangle Kepler as tadebait. Celestino and Larnach MAY be better than Max (and certainly cheaper). Plus you got Wallner coming up. If Kepler creates value, you can trade him for a solid bullpen arm with another "prospect."

[shortround81]

We need a M.A.S.H. unit

[Old fox]

It depends what the market place makes available and the asking price and the willingness of the buyer to meet the price. This year and if the Twins remain in the play off race will determine how the Twins will approach the final trade deadline. Injuries and player “down turns” will also play important part of the trade decision.  At this time and most of the time the need for starting and relief pitching will be considered. The price will be considerably higher because the Twins will be looking at higher quality players. These trades may require high quality prospects. It’s about a 1 1/2 months away when the market will begin to show who may be available.