Is the Twins Rotation for Real?

[bird]

8 hours ago, Seansy said:

My two favorite targets, Gausman and Rodón, have been incredible and would of been great additions but a lot of other big money free agents like Stroman and Semien have struggled so far this year. My reasoning for those two was that they didn't have a QO attached and I felt more confident they could replicate their results than Ray. Given how well the rotation has pitched so far and the addition of Correa it is hard to fault the result. If Bundy pitches well all season they have an option for him plus 1 more year of control for Gray. Archer is likely gone at season's end but I'm guessing they fill his spot long term with Winder. After next year Bundy and Gray should be replaced with some combination of Balazovic, Canterino, Sands, Henriquez, etc. depending on their performance in the minors.

The pitching pipeline is finally starting to bear fruit!

This I'm sure sounds like heresy to some, but I for one would say both Rodon and Gausman were solid passes, as was Stroman. From a business standpoint AND even from a baseball standpoint, one who accepts the concept that there is an acceptable value/$ quotient that exempts a front office for passing on a player is likely to agree that passing on Gausman at $110M/$21M each and every year for 5 years, and passing on Rodon at $44M/$22M each of two years may have been prudent, especially Gausman.

Why? Mainly because they most likely would have delayed any contributions from Ryan, Ober, Winder, Sands, and perhaps a couple others later in the season (Henriquez, Canterino, Balazovic?) with not as many extra wins as people might think. So, $43M in 2022 for Rodon and Gausman, perhaps resulting in an extra win or two in 2022 over, say, Ryan and Ober, who cost less than $2M, and perhaps most significantly, made making an aggressive play for Correa viable from a business AND baseball baseball standpoint.

I expect one of Bundy or Archer to implode, BTW. But, like last year with Ryan and Ober, I also expect one or two starters from the minors to step up like they did.

[MTV]

Joe Ryan is an Ace, Sonny Gray is a good compliment, Bailey Ober and Chris Paddack are gonna hopefully move toward the end of the rotation but are still a good 3/4, I’m still shaky on Archer and Bundy (especially after Bundy’s last 2 starts) Josh Winder however looks like a good fit-in

I think The Twins should still chase after a lefty and a closer at the deadline, I think it’ll balance out the rotation more. 

What I don’t see people talking about is how good this rotation will be in 2-3 years. Ryan and Ober are gonna stay for a while, on top of Winder, Balazovic, Woods-Richardson, Canterino, Varland, and Enlow. The first 4 stated are all top 10 prospects and Winder already looks really good, if those top 4 can all reach their potential that’s a filthy 6, so much so the latter could be traded or moved to the bullpen. 

[Blyleven2011]

Is the twins rotation for real  is the question  !!!!

All depends your definition of real , 

Are they good or are they bad ? ,,,

So far the starting pitching has been decent with the exception of a few starts  , 

Will it continue  ? , it will have its ups and downs  just like any teams pitching staff ....

Does it have what it takes to win during the season  ( better than last year's odds ) 

The real question though is Does it have what it takes to win once we get to the playoffs ?

[Dman]

14 hours ago, se7799 said:

Ok, let me ask you this. Do you expect us to remain a top ten rotation?  What would it take for you to become a believer and not just thinking it's based more on the arms just being fresh and early of the season?  I truly am curious of what sounds like pessimism.  What would you personally need to see to become optimistic that we have a top ten strong deep rotation?

In that first paragraph those were my thoughts at the start of the season. Things have changed quite bit since then as we know more about each pitcher. 

A pitcher like Bundy doesn't sign for 5M with an option for 11M the next year unless that is the best offer he can get.  If no one else really wanted him the odds seemed low for a turn around.  He was lights out his first three times out and fearless in the zone but lately as I said in my other post he is looking more like the Happ signing which didn't work out well.  

Archer has been battling injuries for three years now.  He has looked wild and hasn't made it past the 4th inning yet but the results have been good.  The challenge though is will they be able to keep him healthy all year?  He hasn't been healthy for a full season in three years.

Paddack seemed like a decent pickup to me but with a UCL sprain last year he could be a TJ candidate as early as this year if unlucky.  I think that might be why the Twins got three years of him for one of Rogers because if his arm does break down 1 to 2 of those years will be gone anyway.  The Twins also picked up insurance for that in the player to be named later IMO.

Gray's issue is health as well and he hasn't pitched a full season in a while.  He hasn't even really pitched the first month of this season.  He has been good when healthy but his numbers did regress last year which is likely why Cincy needed to trade him before he potentially lost all value.  I still think he is a good pitcher but I think he could be exposed especially later in the year when his arm isn't fresh.

Ober looks like a 5th starter to me and I don't see much more there.  He has to have pinpoint control to make it but he has been able to get it done so far.  I think he is who he is at this point and that is someone who can hold down his spot when healthy.

I really like Ryan and Winder and always have.  I was concerned about Ryans hard hit rate last year and expected him to struggle with home runs but he has proven me wrong to this point.  Winder was just a question mark.  Would his stuff play at this level.  It looks like the answer to that is yes.

To answer your question if this rotation stays relatively healthy and given what I have seen so far I would say yes I think they can be a top 10 rotation. However, at the start of the season was anyone saying that?  I didn't see one post that said they thought the Twins rotation would be this good.

[Whitey333]

I also expect Bundy to implode.  Yesterday's game is second very bad outing in a row for Bundy.  He's following a very familiar pattern last year with the Angels.  I also would expect Archer to possibly implode as the season drags on.  Starting pitching has been much better than I thought it would be.... So far. .I do wish they could go longer in games.  My current concern is the bullpen is overused and may break down as the season develops.  Using the excuse that spring training was short is over.  We are a month into the season so starters need to get 7 innings even 6 more regularly.  Hopefully Twins will bounce back today with a big win.

.

[Major League Ready]

IDK if we should be thinking this rotation has a chance to make us a contender.  IMO, the FO was looking to put a good team on the field while at the same time building a homegrown staff that would be the foundation of good teams for several years.  The ceiling was a fringe contender that could beat most teams but not seriously contend with the Dodgers / Yankees / Jays / Mets.  A few months ago, many here were panicking that we did not “have a ML pitching staff” and we were going to lose 90-100 games or we were on the verge of a 5 year rebuild, etc. 

The important perspective on where we stand now for me is that just 25 games in, we look to have the depth to support a very good season and the long-term is looking great.  We have Gray for another season so next year is Gray / Ryan / Paddack / Winder / Ober plus whoever steps up over the next 137 games.  Of course, there is also the emergence of Duran.  I am not so sure they won’t give him a go as a SP, given he could be the true ace we have not had for a long time.  We have Paddack through 2024 so if these guys can stay relatively healthy, we are not going to be using retreads anytime soon. 

Bottom line is I don’t have a high degree of confidence Bundy or Archer will be difference makers.  They are here for a year to help transition to a homegrown staff.  The key to this staff being “real” is the continued establishment of Ryan / Duran / Winder / Paddack / Ober and whoever comes behind them.   

[Reptevia]

Ask us this question on June 1st after the batters have caught up. Or July 1st after we have a meaningful sample size. 

[Major League Ready]

56 minutes ago, Reptevia said:

Ask us this question on June 1st after the batters have caught up. Or July 1st after we have a meaningful sample size. 

The fun is in the speculation.   What will be the point in asking when we know the answer?

[Trov]

What about Winder, he sure looked good so far too?  Even if some of the vets fall off, he may step in like he has so far.

[Minny505]

Bundy's results so far are not sustainable. This start feels a lot like Martin Perez, circa 2019. 

Ryan, Paddack, and Ober have all looked solid.

I'm not worried about Gray as long as he stays healthy. 

Archer is still a question mark. He looks passable.

Winder has looked great! 

It's nice having a wild card like Bundy as the seventh best SP on the squad right now. We're gonna need them all.

[nicksaviking]

23 hours ago, 2wins87 said:

While technically a trade, it was really just a rule-5 pick in spirit.  I don't remember the specifics of why they did it that way, but the Twins wanted Santana and the Marlins wanted Camp.  Terry Ryan just decided to get weird with it.

Ryan did it that way because the Twins had the top pick and the Marlins wanted Camp, but you can't trade the actual picks. The Marlins gave the Twins a wad of cash along with Santana, who was the second pick.

[bird]

I've been guilty of being overly optimistic about pitching prospects in the past. I've come to realize that it's so much more a numbers game with pitchers because of the injury risks and the unpredictability regarding development. It's the sheer numbers of real prospects in the system, many on the cusp, that I find encouraging.

I tend to look at things relative to other things, in this case, the other teams in the AL Central. Here's what I found:

2022 Fangraphs says the Twins have 7 pitching prospects with a fair value (FV) of at least 45 (plus non-pitchers Miranda, Martin, and Lewis). Three of those are on the big club now (Winder, Ryan, Duran). Additionally, lower value guys Sands and Moran are up. The other four are in AAA or AA (Canterino, SWR, Henriquez, Balazovic). Overall, there are a total of 16 pitching prospects on the list with FV's under 45, so there's impressive depth. That's 23 names.

So keep that 7 number in your head. Here are the number of pitching prospects at 45 or better FV in the other systems:

CLE 3

DET 4 (all AA and lower)

CWS 0 (actually, CWS only has one prospect ranked as high as 45+, a 3B)

KCR The 2022 summary isn't published yet, but based on 2021, it will come in at 3-4.

Conclusion: Having 7 really promising prospects, three of which are already huge contributors on the big club, is a potentially significant advantage over the division rivals, especially in light of and every day lineup as strong as ours.

[Riverbrian]

8 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

IDK if we should be thinking this rotation has a chance to make us a contender.  IMO, the FO was looking to put a good team on the field while at the same time building a homegrown staff that would be the foundation of good teams for several years.  The ceiling was a fringe contender that could beat most teams but not seriously contend with the Dodgers / Yankees / Jays / Mets.  A few months ago, many here were panicking that we did not “have a ML pitching staff” and we were going to lose 90-100 games or we were on the verge of a 5 year rebuild, etc. 

The important perspective on where we stand now for me is that just 25 games in, we look to have the depth to support a very good season and the long-term is looking great.  We have Gray for another season so next year is Gray / Ryan / Paddack / Winder / Ober plus whoever steps up over the next 137 games.  Of course, there is also the emergence of Duran.  I am not so sure they won’t give him a go as a SP, given he could be the true ace we have not had for a long time.  We have Paddack through 2024 so if these guys can stay relatively healthy, we are not going to be using retreads anytime soon. 

Bottom line is I don’t have a high degree of confidence Bundy or Archer will be difference makers.  They are here for a year to help transition to a homegrown staff.  The key to this staff being “real” is the continued establishment of Ryan / Duran / Winder / Paddack / Ober and whoever comes behind them.   

I believe Canterino, Woods-Richardson and Varland will have to be added to the 40 man in December.

Balazovic, Sands, Strotman and Henriquez are on the 40 man right now in St. Paul along with Vallimont in Wichita and Enlow on the DL. 

Ryan, Gray, Ober, Paddack, Winder and Maeda are under control for next year at the major league level.

Pitching depth like we've never had and for the first time in a long time it's pitching depth with actual VALUE that could be traded for a significant addition wherever needed on the rest of the roster. 

I'm buying Twins stock. 

And I also believe that we could do some things this year. I can't wait... and I may not have to.  

[DocBauer]

To the OP, which was great, 2 points:

1] REAL is just too early after a month due to SSS, as well as weather. The batters will heat up with the weather. But then again, arms will get warm and loose as well. So the SSS works both ways.

2] Archer and Winder should have been included

So let's get to the heart of the matter

RYAN: He might have a rough patch here and there, but most pitchers do. Everything about him screams REAL, whether that means potential ACE or just very good top of the rotation SP is TBD. But he's good/very good and potentiallyspecial

GRAY: He is a bona-fide top of the rotation SP with a quality history. I've been so impressed with his leadership thus far. I absolutely love how he's taken the lead with other pitchers to "force" them to watch one another in bullpens and the such to communicate and learn with one another. He and Ryan will, anchor this rotation all year long.

OBER: He's exceeded all expectations after putting up video game numbers, despite injuries, in his milb career. He had a very good 2021 and adapted his stuff during the season. He doesn't have anything special, but he's just good overall and still learning. I don't know how good he can still be, meaning his ceiling, but he can be a quality part of this rotation for years to come. I feel he's downgraded by some only due to IP. But I think the staff has been brilliant in slowly building up his arm in 2021 and this year as well

BUNDY: He had a really bad game but hung in for 6 IP to take one for the team. Then the Orioles game happened and I'm not sure how much blame you can put on him. For maybe the second time all year, the defense stunk. He didn't throw all that bad. And a pair of games, with defensive miscues, doesn't define him. He could easily be just as good as he was previously his first few starts. But to be honest, even IF he proves to be only OK going forward...NOT saying that will be the case...being a solid guy for half a season while others take charge wouldn't be a bad thing. But I'm not doubting him after one bad performance and a bad team play game.

PADDACK: Did the Twins fleece the Padres? This kid has STUFF and potential STUFF. But he is an enigma. He had the great rookie season and then slipped. But he's got control, velocity, a great change, and suddenly a great curve. But for some reason, he couldn't put it all together in SD. The FO has liked him for years. Now they have him. Suddenly all the pitches are starting to work? Is this another example of our FO and staff, Johnson and others, making things happen? I still hate losing Rogers, but you don't gain if you don't give at times. Time will tell, but we might have burned the Pad's on this one.

ARCHER: I have been blown away by Archer's health and stuff and looking like his old self. Kudos to the FO for taking a shot and ALL doctors, therapists and instructors who Archer worked with to get him healthy again. The guy is throwing as well or better than he ever has. This is the kind of "come back" story that happens every season or so. The Twins are treating him much like Canterino, baby steps to build up the arm for IP with a potentially great outcome. The difference is about 8yrs. Canterino is being nurtured, rightfully so, as a SP with a future in that role. Archer is being re-established as a MLB SP. This easing in could pay major dividends before 2022 is done. Let him play up and build up his arm and see what he can do. BUT...I could also see him take a different route and transition at 33y to take all of his health and stuff to be an outstanding RP. I wouldn't do that NOW. BUT as the next few months play out, and if for some reason he just can't go more than  4 or so IP, I think it's worth looking at.

WINDER: Despite his early results coming in as a long reliever, when push came to shove, I thought he might go down to St Paul when the roster shrunk, because he had options. The I heard the FO never intended to send him down. The I saw a couple outstanding starts. And injuries and stuff happens to make room. But I think it's clear now Winder is going nowhere. Everyone healthy and ready to go, SOMEONE, not Winder, is going to the pen. Depth is amazing! But you don't sacrifice the future for ego.  And these thing always seem to work out. .

 

[Major League Ready]

It's early and hopefully things look as good or better a couple months from now but it's feeling real at this moment.  I felt what we saw from Ryan last year was real and I have been believing in Ober for quite some time.  He is not a front of the rotation guy but a solid piece going forward.  The big potential in my mind was Duran / Winder & Paddack.  At the moment they look like the pitching additions we have been awaiting.  If these three are for real, the next several years should be a lot of fun.

The As are not very good right now but Winder sure does look like a top of the rotation guy.  His command looks better than I expected.  He has left a few over the heart of the plate that have not been hit.  I guess that's good and bad.  His stuff is good enough to get away with those mistakes and most of the time he is hitting his spots.

The other guy I am cautiously optimistic about is Jax. Obviously, this is off the topic of the rotation, but he looks like he could be another addition that solidifies our pitching.  It's great to have a guy out there that can help save the staff by pitching multiple innings when called upon.  

Call me greedy but now I want Canterino or Balazovic or both to get up to the ML level and impress like Ryan and Winder have.  It will feeling very real if that happens.   I would like to end the season with a 6man rotation of Ryan / Winder / Gray / Paddack / Balazovic / Ober with Duran / Canterino / Alcala and Jax the back end of the BP.  Plus, a LH reliever acquired by trading Bundy or Archer at the deadline.