What Will It Take for Carlos Correa to Stay in Minnesota?

[Cody Christie]

Carlos Correa has gotten off to a slow start during his Twins tenure, but his career track record points to him getting back on track. So, how can the Twins keep Correa long-term?

Minnesota's front office recognized the opportunity they received when they signed Carlos Correa this spring. He's being paid the highest single-season salary for an infielder in MLB history, and he has the opportunity to opt out of his contract at season's end. Many viewed Correa's deal as a one-year contract so that he could test the free-agent market again next winter. However, he may be interested in staying in Minnesota long-term.

Earlier this week, Ken Rosenthal reported that Correa is very willing to sign a long-term deal to stay in Minnesota. Correa said. "I love the people here. I love the way I'm treated here. If you guys see the value I bring to this organization and what I do for other people around me and the game that I bring, I would love to have a long-term relationship here if that's what you guys would like." Correa also pointed to how comfortable his family already feels in Minnesota, even though it's very early into his Twins tenure. 

So, what will it take to keep Correa in Minnesota beyond 2022? 

Last winter, multiple shortstops signed multi-year free-agent contracts. Texas handed out the two highest free-agent contracts for shortstops to Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. Seager signed for 10-years and $325 million, while Semien got 7-years and $175 million. Boston gave Trevor Story $140 million over six years, and Detroit signed Javier Baez to an identical deal. Correa was ranked highly, so he was likely looking for a total similar to what Seager got from the Rangers.

Next winter's shortstop class also has some superstar players. Outside of Correa, Trea Turner will be the top available shortstop, and he will likely get a higher contract than Seager. Other potential free agent shortstops include Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson. Correa is younger than all of these options, and teams will likely view this as a positive when negotiating a long-term deal. 

Minnesota has seen Correa's work on and off the field, which can open up the opportunity for more long-term discussions. He and his agency will likely want him paid like a top free agent. Taking out his $34 million for the 2022 season, he has $291 million left to reach what Seager got last winter. It seems like an eight-to-nine-year deal for $275-290 million would be the range. That would be a significant investment from a front office that loves payroll flexibility. Luckily, the Twins don't have a lot of contracts on the books in the years ahead, and much of their pitching will be young and cheap. A Correa-level deal fits with the team's current flexibility and future finances. 

Another aspect of signing Correa is his lack of ties to the Twins organization. Since signing, Correa has made it clear that the Twins are Byron Buxton's team. Buxton is off to a tremendous start that puts him into the conversation as one of baseball's best players. Is Correa satisfied being the Robin to Buxton's Batman, or does he want to be considered the best player on his team? A contract worth over $250 million will probably solve any of those concerns. 

Do you think the Twins will sign Correa to a long-term deal? What type of contract is fair for both sides? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[dberthia]

Assuming he corrects himself and has a good year, I'm pessimistic about him sticking around. Why wouldn't he opt out and go free agent? He'd be stupid not to test the waters again for a long-term deal that I just don't see the Twins offering. And that might not even be a bad thing for the Twins. Lewis may be ready to go next year, at an astronomical savings over Correa. The only way I see Correa sticking around is if he has a crap year or if we could structure something long-term more along the lines of the incentive-laden Buxton contract. Will be interesting to see how it all shakes out.

[Nashvilletwin]

What about Lewis (just asking for a friend)?

Seriously, my hope is that a) Correa produces, b) Twins contend this year, c) Correa is not traded and stays with a longer term deal, and d) Lewis starts in RF no later than next year (joining BB and Martin in the outfield - how good could that be?). 
 

Not sure how much coin it will take, but with Sano, Kepler, and Sanchez off the books and several cheap young starting pitchers, we should have the cash. 

[Dman]

Those 7 to 10 year deals don't make sense for revenue sharing teams.  The Twins will be better off short and long term dumping Correa for Lewis who will cost much less and while he won't likely produce right away he shouldn't be that far off of Correa's production especially as he ages.  If Correa was willing to do a home town discount in the 25M range maybe the Twins could squeeze that in but I don't see them doing that as they are averse to long term deals.  They almost didn't sign Buxton long term.  Correa staying is a very, very,  long shot.  If he plays well some bigger market team will gobble him up.

[wsnydes]

Hotdish.  Endless supplies of hotdish!!!

I think the real answer to this depends on how this season turns out.  If he stays healthy and has a productive season, I would think that he'd certainly try to capitalize on that.  If he has a down year, maybe trouble staying on the field, then the odds probably increase quite a bit that he stays for at least another year under his current deal.  

[LewFordLives]

Not happening, and I don't think it should. Name one of those 9-10 year mega contracts that has worked out for the signing team? If the Twins thought it was a good idea they already would have done it.

As it is, if Correa keeps slumping he will probably be with us two more years. (I think this is a low probability scenario.)

[TwinsChupacabra]

The only way I see that he stays, is if he continues to struggle and has a poor year.  He'll want to play on a contending team and the Twins are not that.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

28 minutes ago, wsnydes said:

Hotdish.  Endless supplies of hotdish!!!

I think the real answer to this depends on how this season turns out.  If he stays healthy and has a productive season, I would think that he'd certainly try to capitalize on that.  If he has a down year, maybe trouble staying on the field, then the odds probably increase quite a bit that he stays for at least another year under his current deal.  

And Jucy Lucy’s? I bet Matt’s would chip in some burgers.

[wsnydes]

2 minutes ago, Sconnie said:

And Jucy Lucy’s? I bet Matt’s would chip in some burgers.

Seems like a worthwhile investment to me!

[Trov]

Assuming he bounces back, it will take a lot of money to sign him long term, if struggles this year I bet he opts in and we can discuss this next year.  I would point out that so far most of the top FA have not preformed well.  Yes, still early, but Seager, Seimian, Story(who many wanted the Twins to drop a ton on), Baez have all got off to slow starts.  Clearly the team can afford a 30 mil a year guy, the question for a team like the Twins is can you afford them over a 7 to 10 year deal?  Also, how will a subpar performance affect the teams ability to compete in the future?  Specifically, in 5 years Ryan, Ober, and possibly Duran, Winder, and others in minors will be reaching FA.  Will 30 million to Correa in his year 8 through 10 affect our ability to bring them back, if we want?  That is what the FO always have to keep thinking about, not just this year or next, but 3 to 6 years down the road.  

[Unwinder]

As a regular person who is not a professional athlete, the amount of money Correa is likely to make is imaginary to me anyway. If I were him, I'd tell myself I was set for life no matter what happens, and just sign with a team I knew I'd enjoy playing with for ten years.

On the other hand, a ten-year contract is very long. Even if Correa does love Buxton, Falvey, Rocco et all as much as he says he does, if he gets the contract he wants, he has a good chance of outlasting all of them. Who knows if he'll like the next front office, the next manager, his future teammates, etc? From this perspective, he's better off getting all the money he can (or at least picking someplace where he likes the climate), because liking the team is a crapshoot over such a long period.

And then on the other hand, for someone who has millions of dollars in their bank account, there really is a difference between getting $325 million and whatever lowball offer the Twins are likely to make.

[minman1982]

I don't see Correa staying in Minnesota long term.  Depending how this season goes, I would not be surprised if he opts out.  The only advantage I see to stay beyond this season is to build more time between the present and his time with the Astros when they won a the trash can World Series.  I don't see the Twins as a team that is going to be willing to give a long term deal with $300M, unless it has a ton of incentives in it and a lower base salary (kind of like the Buxton contract).

[Doctor Gast]

I think this FO is hoping that Correa will have a great year and move on. It's nice that Correa likes it here (hopes he has both vaccine shots + booster). As much as I like him, I don't think it'll happen. But hope he sticks around to help us advance in the post season this year. Nevertheless it'd be very tempting for this FO to trade Correa unless we have a monster season, especially if Lewis has a pretty good year in AAA.

[RpR]

At the point I would not worry about it.

[RJA]

Whether Correa stays or not (he won't--the Twins will not pay him 250 million), the fact that he is talking up the Twins, the area, his family's welcome, and his teammates will only help attract free agents in the future.  We are not a preferred destination for many players, and likely never will be unless we win it all or come close for a few years, but I think his feelings about how he has been welcomed are real and if a player were to ask him about the Twins even when he is playing elsewhere he will talk the Twins up.  His experience and Buxton's presence should help the Twins attract players in the future, assuming of course, that the FO looks to make some free agent additions.

[Rosterman]

Correa is in the driving seat for the next three years if he wants to stay in Minnesota. Aside from releasing him, or trading him (with his consent).

 

Of course, for the Twins it all depends on the progression of Royce Lewis as the next shortstop. And even at this point in time, if Royce has a full season at AAA St. Paul and does well, he could still start 2023 at St. Paul (shades of Miranda) if Correa stays in the fold.

 

Gotta say, the Dodger fans (here en masse) were brutal towards Correa in that series. Far from Minnesota nice!

[h2oface]

4 hours ago, LewFordLives said:

Not happening, and I don't think it should. Name one of those 9-10 year mega contracts that has worked out for the signing team? If the Twins thought it was a good idea they already would have done it.

As it is, if Correa keeps slumping he will probably be with us two more years. (I think this is a low probability scenario.)

I get your point, and I agree. The carnage of bad contracts for the signing team is the norm,

Here are a few. to take the challenge, some that are completed, some that have years left but look to be contenders..... Alex Rodriquez #1, Mike Trout, Klayton Kershaw (only 7 years but I think I can count it as long mega for it's time..... I'm gonna), Joey Votto, Max Scherzer (7 year), Derek Jeter. The highest and 300mil+ contracts are to new to know how it will work out, but probably doomed. Tatis with the 14 year, super young, and shoulder and now can't stay off the motorcycle...... lots of things to go wrong in 14 years. But there will be some that will workout, I bet.

[DocBauer]

I'm uncertain as to the context of Correa's comments. Did he simply volunteer his love and enthusiasm? Or did someone ask him about his early impressions and a desire to stay? And understand, I think his comments were probably genuine. I've been very pleased by his attitude, leadership and even deference toward Buxton. I think he and his comments were genuine. But honestly, would you expect him to say something less? Would you expect him to say he's planning on opting out and looking for a bigger, longer term deal? Of course not. Again, I think his comments were genuine.

But there has to be a reality check in regard to an extension. His idea of a 10yr deal now becomes an 8-10yr deal ask with 2022 already settled. Even as a great athlete, great work ethic, and great health, odds are very much against him being a high quality SS after his age 32 season, give or take slightly. Which means an over pay for his last 2-3yrs as a 3B/2B...possibly DH. Make no mistake, there IS a difference gambling on someone like Donaldson at 3B for $25M who can DH or play 1B as his range slips, vs paying Correa $30-35M in his mid 30's and no longer a SS. There are a handful of teams that can, do, and have "eaten" vast amounts of $ late in a player's career to have the first 5-6-7yrs of peak performance. The Twins simply can't afford to do that.

But in regard to the OP and what the Twins COULD do?  Well, it does depend, of course, on Correa and his agent. Would he be willing to be locked up until age 34-35? That would mean a 7yr deal. Would GUARANTEED $ of say $210M...in addition to the $34M he's making in 2022...get it done? That's a combined $245M over 8yrs by the end of his age 35yo season. Would that GUARANTEED money and happiness and security worth vs looking for that "extra" be worth it to him? Because that's the absolute max the Twins could afford, IMO. And I think it's a safe opinion.

OPTION #1:

How could the Twins afford it? Well, it would be nice if incentives were included, but I don't see that happening. But with projected growth in revenues over time, money coming off the books, and a large group of young and inexpensive players and pitchers on the rise, the Twins have the ability to front load the early years of the deal, keeping him in that $34-35M range before sliding down to the $20-25M range later in the deal.

OPTION #2:

I have ZERO doubt that the Twins and Correa weren't honest and earnest in their 3yr deal, despite the opt outs. Otherwise, why not just do a 1yr or a 1yr with an option of some sort? So how about tearing up the deal, make it an ADDITIONAL 3-4yrs at the same value, toss in some incentives for ALL STAR, MVP, games played, etc, which adds value and plays in to the "front loading" the deal and allows Correa to still walk at age 30-31? Combined with 2022, he gets a minimum of $170M+ with the opportunity to sign with someone else while still young enough to earn a second payday. This hedges injury or sudden decline, or sudden changes in the market while still offering future big earnings.

IMO, these are the ways both parties "win" and Correa remains a Twin for most of his career, or at least the second half of his career. Both sides are fair, and both sides win. 

The only way either of these scenarios work is Correa is really and truly in love with the Twins, Minnesota, laying down roots, and looking to be a part of something long term, and content with massive amounts of $ and peace for himself and his family.

Option #2 is probably the most desirable, but option #1 the most practical. And barring something unforseen, I just don't see either scenario taking place.

I am going to enjoy watching Correa in the field and at the plate in 2022. I am going to enjoy his cajoling the infielders to work hard through his work and leadership. And when the rest of the bats heat up along with him, and the pitching hopefully holds up, it could be a really fun season. And then I will wish him well, except against the Twins, and will embrace Lewis at SS in 2023 and all the young talent on hand and coming up.

 

[Linus]

Let’s not be naïve. He’s gone after this year unless things go horribly wrong. And there is nothing wrong with that. The Twins can’t and shouldn’t hand out a mega contract to him. 

[Whitey333]

Correa was a nice signing for the Twins.  However there is no way the Twins are going to sign him long term to a mega million dollar deal.  He wants to use us for a year, let's use him for a year.  Let him leave after the season.  We have enough young developing talent coming up.  I know it's early but so far he has done very little to nothing to justify a twins team to invest $35 million per year.  I hope and assume he will come around.  I just don't think he's worth that long term commitment to.  And the twins generally don't do long term deals.  No way they extend him.

[chpettit19]

10 years and 350 million dollars is what it will take for Carlos Correa to stay in Minnesota. Easy question.

[Karbo]

You just don't know till you know

[WyoTwin]

I think the Twins should offer him 10 years for 300. Front load the contract, first 3 years 35/season for the $105, the next 4 years at $30/season for $120 and the last 3 years at$25/season for $75. When we were doing our work sheets for payroll this year, I think the Twins didn’t have much  money tied up in the future. We have a lot younger pitchers coming up. So when they start to hit free agency Correa’s contract will start going down. The Twins must of already planned on paying the first 3 years. This will leave them with trade options with the young players in the minors.