Week in Review: Buck Is Back

[Nick Nelson]

Byron Buxton returned with a bang after last week's injury scare, jolting a slumbering offense and leading the charge in a big weekend sweep over the rival White Sox that left the Twins in first place. 

Let us break it down.

Last Week's Game Results:

Game 10 | MIN 8, BOS 3: Garlick, Polanco Homer as Twins Split in Boston
Game 11 | KC 4, MIN 3: Duffey Implodes as Twins Waste Winnable Game
Game 12 | KC 2, MIN 0: Another Solid Pitching Performance Gets Wasted
Game 13 | MIN 1, KC 0: Joe Cool Dazzles, Slough of Singles
Game 14 | MIN 2, CWS 1: Twins Catch Break, Win Thriller
Game 15 | MIN 9, CWS 2: Buxton, Bundy Lead in Comfortable Win
Game 16 | MIN 6, CWS 4: Twins End White Sox Sweep with a Bang

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 4/18 through Sun, 4/24
***
Record Last Week: 5-2 (Overall: 8-8)
Run Differential Last Week: +13 (Overall: +2)
Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (0.5 GA)

NEWS & NOTES

Thankfully it was a week filled with more good news than bad news on the injury front. 

First, the bad news: Jorge Alcalá was moved to the 60-day injured list with his elbow inflammation showing no signs of improvement. He'll be out until at least June, dealing a serious blow to the Twins' bullpen outlook. Replacing him on the 40-man roster is José Godoy, who joined the team as a third catcher.

The additional depth was needed with Minnesota's top two backstops experiencing some (hopefully minor) issues. Gary Sánchez was scratched on Saturday due to abdominal tightness and Ryan Jeffers was scratched on Sunday due to a knee contusion. Neither player was placed on IL, although seemingly neither was available on Sunday.

With a cortisone injection improving the condition of his ailing right wrist, Alex Kirilloff is set to start a brief rehab stint in St. Paul on Tuesday. He may rejoin the Twins next weekend. Meanwhile, Byron Buxton is already back and making a HUGE impact. We'll get to that shortly.

HIGHLIGHTS

The refreshingly impressive Twins rotation kept on rolling in Boston, Kansas City, and back home into Minneapolis. Check out the yeoman’s work in each successive game Monday through Saturday:

• Dylan Bundy @ BOS: 5.1 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 6 K
• Chris Archer @ KC: 4.1 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 5 K
• Chris Paddack @ KC: 5 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 4 K
• Joe Ryan @ KC: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 K
• Bailey Ober vs. CWS: 5 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 6 K
• Dylan Bundy vs. CWS: 5 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K

Add in Chris Archer's so-so effort on Sunday (3 IP, 2 ER) and the rotation posted a 2.21 ERA in seven games last week. Starting pitching is carrying this team in April.

Joe Ryan's outing was perhaps the most critical of the bunch last week – he was masterful Thursday in a 1-0 victory where the Twins needed every bit of his greatness. With a marked increase in his slider usage (up to 31.2% in his first three starts, from 16.0% in 2021) Ryan continued to relentlessly attack the zone while inducing whiffs and weak contact.

Dylan Bundy lowered his ERA for the season to 0.59 (third-lowest in baseball) with a pair of excellent starts. His early success owes to a few factors, but a big one is that he's pounding the strike zone at one of the highest rates in the league. His fastball has been extremely effective, despite ranking in the 9th percentile for velocity (averaging just 89.0 MPH). Hitters are batting .133 against it with zero extra-base hits through three starts. 

The offense's breakout on Saturday, which saw them score more runs (9) than they had in the previous four games (6) was keyed in part by Luis Arraez, who went 4-for-5 in the contest and is now slashing .354/.426/.458 after a 9-for-21 run.

But the true star of the week – and stop me if you've heard this before – was Buxton. He only started three games, taking a few games off to make sure all was well with his sore knee, but the team's best player wasted no time making his presence felt.

After a 1-for-4 game as DH against Kansas City on Thursday, Buxton started in center at Target Field on Saturday night and went 4-for-4 with a home run, HBP, and three runs scored. On Sunday, he came through with a clutch game-tying two-run homer in the seventh and then walked it off with an epic three-run blast in the 10th. It was a really special moment.

There really aren't words to describe what Buxton is doing right now. He's single-handedly winning ballgames. He has hilariously accumulated 1.4 fWAR in a span of 10 games. His WPA in Sunday's game alone (0.761) was higher than all but seven MLB players had accumulated ALL season. This is amazingly fun to watch. 

I continue to believe Buxton's contract extension will go down as the most important move this franchise has ever made. 

LOWLIGHTS

Up and down the lineup, hitters continue to generally struggle. Carlos Correa finally notched some hits, going 6-for-22, but they were all singles and he also mixed in three GIDPs. Trevor Larnach, who went 2-for-22 with eight strikeouts, looks like he belongs in Triple-A (and will likely soon head back). Max Kepler failed to register an extra-base hit or RBI; his slugging percentage sits at .300 yet he's still batting fourth or fifth every time he's in the lineup.

But make no mistake: Miguel Sanó continues to be the biggest laggard on offense for the Twins. Following a 2-for-22 week, his slash line sits at an embarrassing .083/.224/.146, and the supposed slugger has produced just one home run and three RBIs in 15 games.

It's a weird deal with Sanó. The process isn't bad. He's taking good at-bats and making hard contact, with barrel and chase rates that rank among the best in the league. But there's constantly no payoff and it's hard to view it all as just bad luck. On Sunday, in a key spot with the tying run on second in the 10th, he got the green light on a 3-0 count and popped out to the catcher. I mean come on dude.

On the bullpen front, Tyler Duffey coughed up another close lead and saw it turn into a loss on his ledger. While his meltdown Tuesday in Kansas City was less damaging than the blown save against Seattle – this time the offense had three chances to tie or take a lead, although of course they failed – it was substantively much uglier. 

Rather than getting dinked and dunked on a string of hits like in his first blown save, Duffey gave up a pair of long home runs in KC on absolute meatballs left out over the plate. 

He left that outing with the worst Win Probability Added (-0.88) of any pitcher or hitter in the big leagues. With his season starting to feel like an Alex Colomé redux, Duffey bounced back on Friday night. 

Rocco Baldelli gave a strong vote of confidence to his embattled veteran, handing Duffey the ball with a one-run deficit in the eighth against the top of the Chicago order, and Duff delivered: a 1-2-3 inning with two strikeouts. Hopefully it's a sign of stabilization to come, because the Twins really need Duffey to be a Dude in that bullpen – especially in light of the unfortunate Alcalá news.

TRENDING STORYLINE

What is the plan with Gilberto Celestino? That is the big looming question in my mind right now. He's 23 years old, and still very much a developing prospect – he's played a total of 75 games above Single-A in the minors – yet for some reason Celestino is relegated to stagnation on the big-league bench. He's been with the Twins since Opening Day, accruing just 10 at-bats (with one hit) in three weeks. 

I get that the 40-man roster situation is a bit challenging, but this is getting ridiculous. Not only does Celestino offer very little as a bench player for the Twins, but more importantly, this is terrible for his development. He needs regular at-bats. I understood carrying him as a short-term patch while the Twins pursued Justin Upton, but if that's not happening ... what are we doing here exactly?

LOOKING AHEAD

Having passed their first test against an AL Central contender in flying colors, the Twins will now welcome another one to Target Field as Detroit visits for a three-game series. We're slated to see old friend Michael Pineda on Wednesday night. Then it's off to a Tampa for three games against the always-tough Rays.

It feels like the Twins have faced an inordinate number of left-handed starters early on this year, and that trend continues with (at least) four southpaws on the upcoming docket. The health situations of Sánchez and Jeffers will be worth closely monitoring.

TUESDAY, 4/26: TIGERS @ TWINS – LHP Eduardo Rodriguez v. RHP Chris Paddack
WEDNESDAY, 4/27: TIGERS @ TWINS – RHP Michael Pineda v. RHP Joe Ryan
THURSDAY, 4/28: TIGERS @ TWINS – LHP Tarik Skubal v. RHP Bailey Ober
FRIDAY, 4/29: TWINS @ RAYS – RHP Dylan Bundy v. TBD
SATURDAY, 4/30: TWINS @ RAYS – RHP Chris Archer v. LHP Shane McClanahan
SUNDAY, 5/1: TWINS @ RAYS – RHP Chris Paddack v. LHP Josh Fleming

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[wsnydes]

This team is so much better with Buxton in the lineup.  What he's doing right now is video game-esque and it's amazingly fun to watch.

It's also great to see him take this team and become the leader it needs.  That fire after hitting the game winner today is something this team has lacked for a while.

[PopRiveter]

“Oh my golly!”

-Black Francis, the Pixies

“That Byron is so hot right now”

-Mugatu, Zoolander

 

”I literally can’t believe what I’m witnessing”

-Me, this afternoon 

[beterday]

Another question needing an answer,  Why is Garlick being put in the outfield as a "defensive substitution"?  If Larnach can't become better than Garlick defensively, we've got nothin'.

[wsnydes]

4 minutes ago, beterday said:

Another question needing an answer,  Why is Garlick being put in the outfield as a "defensive substitution"?  If Larnach can't become better than Garlick defensively, we've got nothin'.

Garlick PH for Larnach and remained in the game.

At the time, he would have faced a lefty, but LaRussa changed pitchers after the PH announcement, so he ended up facing a RH pitcher instead.

[Squirrel]

6 minutes ago, wsnydes said:

Garlick PH for Larnach and remained in the game.

At the time, he would have faced a lefty, but LaRussa changed pitchers after the PH announcement, so he ended up facing a RH pitcher instead.

Actually ... Garlick pinch hit for Larnach ... then Celestino pinch ran for Garlick and Celestino stayed in the game

[Eris]

On Celestino. While I agree that he needs to play every day for his development. He provides the Twins with a lot of defensive flexibility. He has appeared in 4 of the last 6 games although once as a PR.  He has enabled the Twins to PH for for their outfielders  (mostly Garlick and Larnach, sometimes Kepler) late in the game to get more favorable match ups at the plate and to upgrade their outfield defense over Larnach and Garlick. 
 

Normally a team would only carry one defensive forth outfielder. This is a role occupied by both Gordon and Celestino.   When the roster contracts, Celestino will likely be sent down. 

[Game7-91]

Lots to chew on here, thanks Nick for the excellent analysis of whats been and whats to come. LH gauntlet this week will be a challenge. One thing to add: kudos to Larnach for the throwout. Defense still counts, nice to see Twins making big plays to save runs. 

And looking like Buck is fixin' to have a season for the ages. Prayers to the baseball gods to keep him healthy....he can carry the team. We havent had a guy of this caliber since Puck.

Puck and Buck. Nice ring to it....

 

[stringer bell]

2 hours ago, Squirrel said:

Actually ... Garlick pinch hit for Larnach ... then Celestino pinch ran for Garlick and Celestino stayed in the game

To clarify further, Garlick did stay in the game after he pinch hit for Larnach, but was replaced by pinch runner Celestino when he walked in his second plate appearance and Celestino stayed in the game. 

[Monkeypaws]

Was it just a week ago the Twins were in last place?

This 4 game winning streak came at a great time. Being in 1st in the Central is nice, but not being last and digging a big losing hole is really what I was hoping for.

It's a long season, and you don't want all hope to be gone before summer. I'd say this week went a long way towards that, sweeping the predominant AL Central favorites while they played sloppy losing baseball.

[Unwinder]

You know, I'm quite shocked that I barely care at this point that Sonny Gray is injured. Nothing against him at all, his absence just hasn't even been a speed bump.

 

[ToddlerHarmon]

I can look at the percentile stats for Sano and explain his dismal performance without invoking bad luck:

you only get three strikes.

How's that for statistical analysis?

[roger]

Always enjoy these recaps, Nick, thanks.

How about adding one stat in each of these weekly reports.  That would be the Twins record this season with Buxton playing and their record when he doesn't appear in a game?  Got a feeling those two stats would tell us all we need to know about how their season is going.

[jmlease1]

One of the challenging things right now is continuing the development of players like Celestino & Winder while trying to maximize wins for the MLB club. They're being used in minor roles right now that have some value but are clearly not being treated as priorities, and it's unfortunate to have them be used more as warm bodies and emergency use players rather than real contributors when both player need work to continue their development. They should probably both be in AAA (and I think there's a real chance both will be soon) but it's resulting in some wasted development time for both players.

Buxton is the straw that stirs the drink. My goodness, he's amazing. That extension is looking brilliant right now, even with the week off for the knee ding.

Have to believe some of these bats are going to get going soon, especially Correa. He's too good of a player not to, and if they can get some additional offensive contributions form some power hitters, the offense should start looking better more consistently.

I'm really bummed about Alcala. I really liked him as a late-inning option, and elbow injuries like this are always hugely worrying. And I hate that he might rest and rehab for 2 months and it might not fix anything. I hope that he's not heading for surgery, but I fear that he is. What a bummer.

[verninski]

Excellent! It was great to watch some well played ball. This week they are going against some fairly good pitchers! Let’s carry some momentum into it! Jeffers having two days off is well deserved and needed.

[RJA]

Excellent summary, Nick.  It truly was Buck's week.  Sweeping the Sox was significant, even if it is early in the season.  It should give a boost to the team going forward.  And, I'm glad we got the Larnach, Garlick, Celestino situation worked out ;).  I love this site.

[Blyleven2011]

Heroics ...

Buxtons walk off homer  to sweep the series with white Sox was amazing  and a team momentum changer  ..... 

Personally with 1 out and runners on 2nd and 3rd and Buxton batting with a open 1st base ,,, larussa  should have walked Buxton  because his run didn't  matter  and it set up a force out or possible double play  .... 

Larussa got beat by Buxton  , plain and simple  .... 

Buxton  and arreaz at top of order  for the rest of the season  ,, they get things going  ,

Loved that game on Saturday when you couldn't keep those two off the bases ... reminded me o tovar and carew  days.....

All the credit for Sundays walk off win goes to Buxton  ,,,

NOT OUR MANAGER 

 

[KFEY93]

While this weekend was fun, and shined a ray of hope. Its still concerning the Buxton is literally the only player on the team performing at or above expectations. I expect the pitching to regress to the mean but I am not sure if I expect the offense to as well. Its fun watching Buxton win games single handedly but its not sustainable, others are going to have to step up if this team wants to be in a WC race come September. Otherwise we might be done by the break, again. 

[TwinsAce]

I love watching our starting pitching right now.  I'm okay with the 4-6 innings by the majority of the pitchers, especially with Winder piggybacking with Archer.  I think this can be quite successful, especially if one pitcher (Ryan??) can work effectively into the 7th inning consistently with a low pitch count.

[KFEY93]

33 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Heroics ...

Buxtons walk off homer  to sweep the series with white Sox was amazing  and a team momentum changer  ..... 

Personally with 1 out and runners on 2nd and 3rd and Buxton batting with a open 1st base ,,, larussa  should have walked Buxton  because his run didn't  matter  and it set up a force out or possible double play  .... 

Larussa got beat by Buxton  , plain and simple  .... 

Buxton  and arreaz at top of order  for the rest of the season  ,, they get things going  ,

Loved that game on Saturday when you couldn't keep those two off the bases ... reminded me o tovar and carew  days.....

All the credit for Sundays walk off win goes to Buxton  ,,,

NOT OUR MANAGER 

 

Correct. Lets say Buxton was still nursing his in jury this weekend. We for sure lose yesterday and maybe on Saturday as well. Buxton is saving Roccos job single handedly. 

[D.C Twins]

Buck is Breaking Baseballs.

Just Say No to Sano...

It's been more than loooong enough.

I'll happily root for him to 'find it' elsewhere. 

Good teams cannot just wait months for a player to have a few torrid weeks.

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

The Twins have been meeting that definition with Sano for a few years now. (and yes,  they will still be meeting that definition when he inevitably has his hot 3 weeks during the mid to end of June)

[bunsen82]

Buxton is one of the top 5 talents in the game,  when he is available.  Remaining healthy continues to be the major issue with Buxton.   This ferrari continues to need regular maintenance and rest to maintain its optimal performance.  We will continue to watch for any slaps on the ground or yells in frustration on the next awkward slide, slamming into the wall, diving to catch a ball or just running.    Even Buxton is showing frustration with his injury history.   

That aside, if Buxton continues to be healthy,  and Correa starts to turn the corner which I think he is,  the top 3 of Buxton, Arreaz and Correa is going to cause a lot of damage this year.  With OBP of near 400 from those 3 players is going to be something to watch.   They will set the table for Polanco and whoever else decides to step up and make contact and clear the bases for this team.   The bats will continue to warm up especially with those 3 continuing to put pitchers in difficult spots.   

[dex8425]

1 hour ago, KFEY93 said:

While this weekend was fun, and shined a ray of hope. Its still concerning the Buxton is literally the only player on the team performing at or above expectations. I expect the pitching to regress to the mean but I am not sure if I expect the offense to as well. Its fun watching Buxton win games single handedly but its not sustainable, others are going to have to step up if this team wants to be in a WC race come September. Otherwise we might be done by the break, again. 

Arraez is batting .350. He's is at least as good as we expected, probably better. Although his defense is so bad it's hard to play him in the field anywhere. Urshela and Sanchez have also been about what I expected. If urshela OPS' .700 while playing great defense at third that's a very valuable player. 

[dex8425]

2 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Heroics ...

Buxtons walk off homer  to sweep the series with white Sox was amazing  and a team momentum changer  ..... 

Personally with 1 out and runners on 2nd and 3rd and Buxton batting with a open 1st base ,,, larussa  should have walked Buxton  because his run didn't  matter  and it set up a force out or possible double play  .... 

Larussa got beat by Buxton  , plain and simple  .... 

Buxton  and arreaz at top of order  for the rest of the season  ,, they get things going  ,

 

 

It was defensible. When the guy on deck is hitting .350 and even better against righties, you don't intentionally walk the bases full to face that guy. Buxton had already struck out three times.

Granted, it was a terrible 3-1 pitch.  Hendricks didn't have control all night. Seemed like he was landing funny. 

[jmlease1]

36 minutes ago, dex8425 said:

It was defensible. When the guy on deck is hitting .350 and even better against righties, you don't intentionally walk the bases full to face that guy. Buxton had already struck out three times.

Granted, it was a terrible 3-1 pitch.  Hendricks didn't have control all night. Seemed like he was landing funny. 

I think Hendriks got a little karma yesterday, after screaming about striking out Nick Gordon the previous inning. 

[Nick Nelson]

1 hour ago, bunsen82 said:

Buxton is one of the top 5 talents in the game,  when he is available.  Remaining healthy continues to be the major issue with Buxton.   This ferrari continues to need regular maintenance and rest to maintain its optimal performance. 

I agree. Although according to some, he should play every single day he's physically able or else the Twins are "forfeiting"... ?

[Nick Nelson]

I forgot to mention him in the article but Josh Winder also deserves a lot of credit for his work in the game yesterday. Kept it close and made Buxton's heroics possible.

 

[jmlease1]

29 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

I agree. Although according to some, he should play every single day he's physically able or else the Twins are "forfeiting"... ?

Let's listen to the king of bad football takes about baseball. wait...

I'm going to dance for joy if Buxton can play 130+ games.

[h2oface]

"It feels like the Twins have faced an inordinate number of left-handed starters early on this year, and that trend continues with (at least) four southpaws on the upcoming docket."

It sure does! It also feels like we have an inordiate number of right-handed starters, as we are throwing all (5) right-handed starters!  So it made me curious, and I did not realize that we have no left-handed starters at all on the active roster nor on the 40-man, and only 2 left-handed relievers (Thielbar and Coulombe) on the active roster and of the 26 pitchers on the 40-man (including IL), we only have 1 additional lefty - reliever Jovani Moran! 

I guess that's............. all right?

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

I agree. Although according to some, he should play every single day he's physically able or else the Twins are "forfeiting"... ?

Wow.  That Zuul guy or whatever his name is is unreadable.

Talk reason to him in response to his hawt taek, and he just doubles down.