Twins 2, White Sox 1: Twins Catch Break, Win Thriller

[Squirrel]

1 hour ago, rv78 said:

Let's just say the Twins got lucky. Rocco was proud of the way his team played. Despite his efforts to blow the game, yes they managed to take the win due to the Sox handing it to them yet almost taking it back in the 9th. Why was Larnach lifted for Garlick when he is one of the few actually hitting the ball? Why do you trust Duffey to pitch in a game this close after his last performances when you had at least 3 other options? Where was the next pitcher in the 9th to relieve Pagan if he got in trouble? Rocco was going to stick with him no matter how it turned out. There was no Plan B in the 9th or we would have seen it or can't Rocco make a pitching change anymore in the middle of an inning? I'll give credit to Pagan for not giving in and to the Ump for making the correct call on a close pitch for strike 3 to end the game. But overall it was another dismal performance by the offense. How many games is this team going to win 1-0 or 2-1? Not many.

Larnach was lifted because of the pitching match up. I think it was the right call. And then he was substituted with Celestino at the top of the next inning, also the right call. I’ve said it a few times, I think Duffey is a good reliever, but not as a closer, ever. I have no issues bringing in Duffey when Baldelli did, and it paid off. Had Duffey been called to pitch the 9th, we’d be having a very different conversation. Wasn’t someone warming up when Pagan finally got the last out? Can’t remember who, but I thought someone had started to warm up, so I think there was a plan B. But on that, I could be mistaken. Then again, maybe we have an 'Everyday Eddie' part 2 on our hands.  Yep, I think the ump made the right call on that pitch, but maybe the right call was putting Jeffers into the lineup at the start, instead of Sanchez. Not sure the reason, but Sanchez has been catching Ober, so we saw Jeffers instead. Not only did Jeffers get a timely hit, and scored the tying run, he made a good block in the 9th, and his set up and framing allowed the ump to actually see the ball to make the correct call. Kudos to Rocco for putting Jeffers in for the game.

Just offering a different perspective. Maybe Baldelli gets some credit here instead of the Twins winning in spite of him.

 

[HokieRif]

Can we send a jucy lucy to Abreu for bailing us out last night?

[2wins87]

4 hours ago, Melissa said:

Yep, all over baseball. Observers like Gleeman here and at the Athletic speculate about reasons: dead ball? Humidor now used at every park? Weather? Shortened spring training? Fans of most teams are feeling the same pain.

It sounds like humidors will effect offense in both ways depending on the local weather, but they are likely exacerbating how much the cool early weather is suppressing offense. This might be a desirable effect in the playoffs where close game tension is a plus, but right now it seems to be contributing to a general lack of excitement on offense.

I think there are of course other continuing trends too. Pitching is inarguably better than it's ever been. Old-timers will bristle at this, but I'd also argue that defense is better than it's ever been too. The approach of hitters certainly has some role, though I think this gets over-emphasized when pitching has just gotten so good.

I never thought homers were the problem.

Bring back the juice!

[wabene]

That was the most egregious theft of victory against the Dirty Sox in the history of baseball. This is the kind of thing that can swing fortunes.

[Steve71]

Defense is better, and batting averages are suppressed, by the shift.  It will be very interesting to see what happens next year when the shift is banned.  Kepler might pick up 20-30 points in batting average.  Another reason not to trade him now when his value is low.

[cheeseheadgophfan]

Anybody else screaming at the TV when Rocco brought in Jax in a 1-0 game?  Anybody yelling (louder) at the TV when Rocco brought in Duffey in a 1-0 game which the Twins needed to win?  Baseball........funny game.

[HokieRif]

34 minutes ago, wabene said:

That was the most egregious theft of victory against the Dirty Sox in the history of baseball. This is the kind of thing that can swing fortunes.

IMHO We didn't steal anything - This has more to do with inept play on the sox part and lazy play giving the game away.  Neither team executed well in the late innings, and the Sox (more specifically Abreu) made two blunders on one play to give the game away (which we in turn tried our hardest to give right back the next inning).  Had Abreu played the ball and not go for any heroics there is a good chance its a tie game going into the 9th.  Even if he made the same initial play, if he had simply run the ball back in instead of making a throw that wasn't necessary (something EVERY infielder is supposed to learn in little league) the inning continues tied at 1.

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

He didn’t give in but I do wonder if you write the same comment if that last pitch is called a ball and the batter walks.

Fair question. After pondering for all of ten seconds, I think think I would feel the same way, but would be too polite to post it. I've posted before that I think he's an average reliever at best, at this stage of his career. This game really defines him for me.

[jmlease1]

2 hours ago, Squirrel said:

Yep, I think the ump made the right call on that pitch, but maybe the right call was putting Jeffers into the lineup at the start, instead of Sanchez. Not sure the reason, but Sanchez has been catching Ober, so we saw Jeffers instead. Not only did Jeffers get a timely hit, and scored the tying run, he made a good block in the 9th, and his set up and framing allowed the ump to actually see the ball to make the correct call. Kudos to Rocco for putting Jeffers in for the game.

Just offering a different perspective. Maybe Baldelli gets some credit here instead of the Twins winning in spite of him.

 

I think Sanchez has been catching Ober in part because of how he works up in the zone, making it easier for Sanchez? Sanchez's problem has been blocking pitches low and low and away and he's probably going to work better with a pitcher who likes to work up in the zone. Just a guess, but Sanchez has looked better defensively with the Twins than advertised to be sure. Some of it may be in how they've deployed him and who with?

Jeffers made some really nice defensive plays last night and was working hard to try and frame some pitches up. Worked to our advantage.

[USNMCPO]

Does anyone know what's up with Coulombe? He hasn't pitched in a while. If they aren't going to use him, why are they keeping him?

[jorgenswest]

13 minutes ago, USNMCPO said:

Does anyone know what's up with Coulombe? He hasn't pitched in a while. If they aren't going to use him, why are they keeping him?

The Royals and White Sox have few left handed bats.

[Eris]

I don’t know much about how WPA is determined. Surprised that Pagan had the second highest WPA last night. I would have given him a negative WPA for the nail biter he created by issuing 2 BB and for the 2 or 3 balls in the dirt with the bases loaded. Had he pitched a clean 9th, would his WPA have been the same. 

[2wins87]

7 minutes ago, Eris said:

I don’t know much about how WPA is determined. Surprised that Pagan had the second highest WPA last night. I would have given him a negative WPA for the nail biter he created by issuing 2 BB and for the 2 or 3 balls in the dirt with the bases loaded. Had he pitched a clean 9th, would his WPA have been the same. 

For his total WPA, it only matters where his outing started and where it ended. The path he took to get there doesn't matter.

In the end he gave up zero runs in the 9th inning so that was a positive for their chances of winning the game (up to 100% from something like 80% to 90% at the start of the inning).

When he loaded the bases with 1 out the Sox were pretty likely to score so his WPA would have been negative at that point. Since he stayed in the game to clean up his own mess he still gets all the credit for the scoreless inning.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, 2wins87 said:

For his total WPA, it only matters where his outing started and where it ended. The path he took to get there doesn't matter.

In the end he gave up zero runs in the 9th inning so that was a positive for their chances of winning the game (up to 100% from something like 80% to 90% at the start of the inning).

When he loaded the bases with 1 out the Sox were pretty likely to score so his WPA would have been negative at that point. Since he stayed in the game to clean up his own mess he still gets all the credit for the scoreless inning.

Well said.  I feel like adding, the same "criticism" could be leveled against good ol' ERA - at the end of the inning, his ERA for the game is 0.00 just as if he had pitched 1-2-3.

Different stats have different purposes, and one big divider is "descriptive" versus "predictive".    Even though WPA is modern, for me it sits directly in the "descriptive" category that tries to tell you what happened, in the context of thousands of other games in history where a home team took a one-run lead into the top of the ninth.  At the end of that adventure, Pagan collects his winning-probability-added, for getting that clutch final out (and the maybe-more-clutch popout after the string of foul balls).  The ninth isn't easy, even if many of the top closers lead you to think so.