Can the Twins Lineup Turn it Around?

[Ted Schwerzler]

We’re 13 games into the 2022 Major League Baseball, and things are the exact opposite of predictions for the Minnesota Twins. Their starting staff has been among the better units in baseball, while the lineup has been among the worst. Can the bats turn it around?

Early in the year, there’s often the excuse that weather is a culprit for lackluster offensive performance. That’s certainly a fair suggestion, but it’s far too generalized to sum everything up with that easy of a pass. This offseason, the Twins front office added one of the best free agents in baseball, and while Carlos Correa will likely get going, he hasn’t anchored a lineup looking to produce.
 
Scoring just 41 runs in 13 games, Minnesota is averaging just over three runs per contest. No matter how strong the starting pitching has been (they rank 8th in baseball in terms of ERA) or how bad the bullpen has been (they rank 27th in baseball in terms of ERA), the reality is that type of production leaves little room for error. Minnesota is 4-0 when scoring at least four runs this season, but having scored less than that in eight contests is why they’re being doubled up in the loss column.

 
For Rocco Baldelli’s club, it’s not as though there’s a single culprit either. Looking up and down the lineup, no player save for Luis Arraez is producing. Byron Buxton was off to a torrid start before going down with a knee injury. Returning to the lineup, there’s still a 10/1 K/BB he’ll be looking to even out and push the on-base percentage north. It was expected that Alex Kirilloff would be a regular contributor to the lineup this season. However, his lingering wrist injury still hasn’t figured itself out, and the path of a cortisone shot is one that only provided a temporary fix last season.
 
Minnesota’s .195 average as a team sits 27th in baseball, ahead of only the Cincinnati Reds and Arizona Diamondbacks. They see a slight boost to 23rd when looking at on-base percentage, and despite being a team capable of doing significant damage, they rank just 24th in terms of slugging. To say things are bad right now would be putting it lightly.
 
However, there has to be hope on the horizon, and if there is, that comes in terms of process driving results. The Twins lineup currently produces the highest hard-hit rate in baseball at 36.7%. They avoid ground balls, hitting them just 38.7% of the time, which ranks 27th in baseball. There’s room for growth in terms of the HR/FB (home run/fly ball) rate and line-drive rate. Minnesota ranks in the bottom third of the sport in both areas.
 
Despite being seen as a homer-happy club, it’s also important to note that the Twins are doing a decent job in the batter’s box regarding plate discipline. Their chase rate ranks in the middle of the sport, and while the whiff rate is 10th, they aren’t egregiously bad on an island by themselves. In short, there should be a light at the end of this tunnel.
 
If it’s unfair to suggest that the weather is the main culprit here, it’s probably also unfair to suggest that 12 games indicate what’s to come. The reality is this lineup has far too much talent to stay down for a considerable amount of time. They are all going through it simultaneously, but one person breaking out could undoubtedly provide a spark for the rest of the group.
 
When the dust settles on the 2022 season, I’d bet handsomely on the pitching taking a back seat to where the lineup is in terms of production. Winning baseball games by scoring three runs or less is a daunting task. The guys in the clubhouse know that, and getting it going needs to happen soon. After feeling good about the bats up and down the order this spring, the hope is that sentiment returns soon.

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[PopRiveter]

Your article provides an excellent answer to the main question facing the team. I was going to list the OPS comparison if you didn't already have it, but you nailed it.

 

Now, Will the lineup turn it around?

[Trov]

I sure hope that if Urshela, Sanchez, Sano, and Larnach do not produce the Twins will not hesitate to make some changes quickly.  Larnach can go across the river if needed to work on whatever is leading to his issues, but the others, DFA or trade if they continue to fail.  We have guys that can come up and do at minimum what they are doing. I could see Lewis or Miranda at 3rd, and Lewis or Martin in LF with just about anyone at 1b and DH with someone filling in as backup catcher.  The 4 listed do not offer enough defense to make up for below average offense.  They are in the line up for the offense and if they cannot do it, do not hesitate to try and find someone who can. 

[LA VIkes Fan]

Love the optimism but I don't think it's warranted. Yes, I expect Correa and Polanco to come around and produce in line with their career norms. I'm also optimistic about Buxton and Urshela, and I think Arraez is a good singles hitter, with no power or speed. Sanchez isn't horrible for a catcher. 

The problem is that's it. Kepler is who he is - a .220-.230 hitter with a good glove and occasional power. Sano is a streaky mediocrity with no glove, and Laranch isn't much yet. Gordon is the best hitting OF we have right now. Kirilloff might hwlp but he might be hurt all year. 

This team is not a good offensive team with this lineup. W have no 4 or 5 hitter - Urshela, Kepler and Sano should be hitting 6,7,8 and then where do hit the C, the DH or the LF? We are offensively challenged in the 3 lineup positions where the bat is more important than the glove - 1B, LF, and DH. I would add RF in that statement. Could this team be around the middle of the pack offensively? Sure, but it isn't likely without a trade or a call up that catches fire.  More likely, this is a bottom third offense on a team that will go as far as the pitching can carry it. And that ain't going to be too far. 

[GNess]

Twins have to hope for some progression to the mean because a number of players are under performing their career averages. 

[GKuehl]

I’ve gotta imagine things will turn around at some point — just way too many guys are underperforming their career numbers like you noted. While the argument that the weather has been a hindrance in the early going often seems like a useless trope, there have been way more than a handful of balls that would have gone for extra bases in July that have been knocked down by the wind or caught on the warning track. 
 

Better days are ahead, there’s just too much talent for this lineup to not be at least average. 

[wsnydes]

I'm fairly confident that they will warm up eventually.  That said, they need to get healthy in order to do that too and that's not a given.  Heading into the season, I was figuring that Kirilloff would be a constant in the lineup and thrive.  I also expect more out of Buxton, Correa, Polanco and Jeffers.  I expect all will start hitting relatively soon.  Kirilloff being out an extended period hurts those odds, in my view.  I don't expect Sanchez to be anything more than what he is currently.  Not sure what to make of Urshela yet.  Kepler is a complete wild card.  Sano will heat up at the end of June like he usually does.  If Kirilloff is out for a while, Sano will play plenty.

Key departures from last years lineup are Garver and Donaldson.  I don't see either or both of those seriously impacting the lineups productivity if they were here.  It would be better, but not by leaps and bounds to this point in the season.

[USAFChief]

As i see it, the real problem is even if all the above perform near career OPS level, this isn't an above average offense. 

[RpR]

52 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Love the optimism but I don't think it's warranted. Yes, I expect Correa and Polanco to come around and produce in line with their career norms. I'm also optimistic about Buxton and Urshela, and I think Arraez is a good singles hitter, with no power or speed. Sanchez isn't horrible for a catcher. 

The problem is that's it. Kepler is who he is - a .220-.230 hitter with a good glove and occasional power. Sano is a streaky mediocrity with no glove, and Laranch isn't much yet. Gordon is the best hitting OF we have right now. Kirilloff might hwlp but he might be hurt all year. 

This team is not a good offensive team with this lineup. W have no 4 or 5 hitter - Urshela, Kepler and Sano should be hitting 6,7,8 and then where do hit the C, the DH or the LF? We are offensively challenged in the 3 lineup positions where the bat is more important than the glove - 1B, LF, and DH. I would add RF in that statement. Could this team be around the middle of the pack offensively? Sure, but it isn't likely without a trade or a call up that catches fire.  More likely, this is a bottom third offense on a team that will go as far as the pitching can carry it. And that ain't going to be too far. 

Trade Larnach and Kiriloff for Cruz.

They have pro-experience rookies in the Minors that can fill in till they get some one/s in left field who has an arm and is not slow.

[Game7-91]

Pitchers always seem to be ahead of hitters in April, but that doesnt mesh with the solid hard hit #'s. They will start scoring more, question is how much. Agree with LA Vikes on this:

46 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

We are offensively challenged in the 3 lineup positions where the bat is more important than the glove - 1B, LF, and DH. I would add RF in that statement.

It is a lineup that if kept together will underperform all season long....every night at least 1/3rd of the order is black hole territory. I dont doubt they will have some collective hot streaks and raise their stats,  but at best this will be inconsistent bunch. Seems to me they need to just some of the inexperienced guys play-Larnach, Gordon, Celestino, eventually Lewis, Martin, etc.....and start figuring out how to move on from Sano, Kepler, Urshela, probably Arraez, and the likely need to trade Correa in June or July. This needs to a tryout season basically.

[Florida Flash]

Throw in Sano and if so, probably have to throw in a couple million $$.

[Dman]

19 minutes ago, wsnydes said:

 

Key departures from last years lineup are Garver and Donaldson.  I don't see either or both of those seriously impacting the lineups productivity if they were here.  It would be better, but not by leaps and bounds to this point in the season.

Actually to this point in the season Sanchez's OPS is higher than Garvers and Urshela's is higher than Donaldson's.  So to your point those guys would only be hurting us more than their replacements are at least to this point in the season. 

Garver always was a slow starter IMO.  He will mash eventually.  Donaldson no idea how he will do but have to believe he will warm up with the weather as well.

At least for the first two weeks the Twins are winning those trades.

[wsnydes]

1 minute ago, Dman said:

Actually to this point in the season Sanchez's OPS is higher than Garvers and Urshela's in higher than Donaldson's.  So to your point those guys would only be hurting us more than their replacements are as least to this point in the season. 

Garver always was a slow starter IMO.  He will mash eventually.  Donaldson no idea how he will do but have to believe he will warm up with the weather as well.

At least for the first two weeks the Twins are winning those trades.

I was looking more at Jeffers vs Garver, but that's not an unfair comp either.  Especially since it backs my point!

[RpR]

If they can take series , early on, against a top team, that will boost their psyche more than losing to  lower team screws it up.

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

Maybe this is what they are this year?  I sure hope not.  If so, then changes will need to be made and some traded at the deadline.  Too early to speculate on that but something needs to be done to kick them in the pants.  Maybe try stealing some bases?

[Nashvilletwin]

Ted, good post. Thanks.

You listed 9 position players comparing OPS data. Here’s my question: how many of those players are on the Twins next year (or even post the trade deadline)?

Quick take: three - Arraez, Polanco and Jeffers.  You didn’t list Buxton and Kiriloff,  but they will be too. Possibly Larnach - but not mission critical. The rest will be traded or DFA’d if they don’t get their act together and, for several of them, even if they do.

That leaves 4 starting positions vacant (three of we can somehow hold on to Correa).  Miranda, Lewis and Martin will be here in August.

Assuming we keep Correa, would anyone be sad if our starting position player lineup in August were:

1B Kiriloff, 2B Polanco, SS Correa, 3B Miranda,  LF Martin, CF Buxton, RF Lewis, C Jeffers, DH Arraez?

Even if Correa is traded for a haul, we could put Lewis at SS, Arraez at 1B and Kiriloff in RF.

Either one of those lineups is more exciting/interesting to watch and positions us better for next season and beyond.

I’m not worried - I like the future. 

 

 

[bighat]

They will turn it around - the question is how long will it take? Took them until July last year, and by then the pitching had cratered and there was a new problem to fix. Season was over before it even started.

Unfortunately, even if Buxton, Correa, Polanco and Urshela get hot, the Twins still have the Larnach-Kepler-Sano-Jeffers problem. The Twins need at least 3 of that group to start firing on all cylinders to have a chance, even if a guy like Gordon emerges as a serviceable player.

It's a marathon not a sprint, it doesn't have to all come together at once. But we have to expect to see some progress, somewhere, from someone, very soon.

[LA VIkes Fan]

It looks like many of us agreed that the big problem is the lineup is at least three bats short of being good enough to really compete. I am a little perplexed on why people assume Urshela will be gone soon. He isn't even arbitration eligible until 2023 and isn't a free agent until 2024. I think he's here for the next two years playing third base or maybe even shortstop once Correa is gone unless Lewis is ready to take over. In any event, he's one of the 45 major league caliber bats we have and the last thing we need to do is get rid of him. We can find a place for Miranda at 1B or even as the DH. 

I know it is early, but I really do think it's time for us to try to move on from at least Sano and maybe also move Kepler to a 4th OF role. Let's get consistent at bats for Gordon, Larnach and Arraez (the latter against LH pitching to see if he improves), at the LF, DH and 1B spots for the next two weeks. Sano can go to part time bench bat, occasional 1B or 3B. If one or more of them don't show enough, time for Miranda, Contreras, Kirilloff if he's healthy and maybe Martin to be given the opportunity using those same positions. I would mention Lewis but I think it makes the most sense to leave him at shortstop in AAA so that he can be plugged in as the major link shortstop either after a midseason trade this year of Correa or when Correa opts out at the end of the season. I'm tired of being betwixt and between all the time, not good enough to really contend but still playing the same guys over and over who are the reason we're not good enough to really contend. Maybe playing the young guys brings us down and not up but we need to see how they fare when given a real opportunity. Besides, it frankly can't get much worse than this at the plate.

[LastOnePicked]

1 hour ago, GKuehl said:

there have been way more than a handful of balls that would have gone for extra bases in July that have been knocked down by the wind or caught on the warning track. 
 

Better days are ahead, there’s just too much talent for this lineup to not be at least average. 

I think this is probably true. The problem is this: the lost opportunities are already banked by that point. If this is a .500-ish almost-WC team under better conditions, they've already dug themselves a hole to climb out of. To be an 85-win club they need to start playing at a 90-win pace, with less additional room for error from here on out.

That's why a strong start really matters for a team on the cusp. I think that's why some of us are so frustrated already. 

[LA VIkes Fan]

1 hour ago, wsnydes said:

I'm fairly confident that they will warm up eventually.  That said, they need to get healthy in order to do that too and that's not a given.  Heading into the season, I was figuring that Kirilloff would be a constant in the lineup and thrive.  I also expect more out of Buxton, Correa, Polanco and Jeffers.  I expect all will start hitting relatively soon.  Kirilloff being out an extended period hurts those odds, in my view.  I don't expect Sanchez to be anything more than what he is currently.  Not sure what to make of Urshela yet.  Kepler is a complete wild card.  Sano will heat up at the end of June like he usually does.  If Kirilloff is out for a while, Sano will play plenty.

Key departures from last years lineup are Garver and Donaldson.  I don't see either or both of those seriously impacting the lineups productivity if they were here.  It would be better, but not by leaps and bounds to this point in the season.

I agree with some of this, but not all. Here's where we disagree. I think Urshela is actually a pretty good hitter. Jeffers is not. I don't think that Kepler is a wild card all - I think we know what he is. He's a .220 - .230 hitter with a good glove and some pop. He is fine as the third or fourth OF on a good team. He is NOT good enough to hit in the middle of the lineup or turn the team around offensively. Same with Sano. He's a streaky hitter who will give us 25+ homeruns, hit between .210 and .235, and hurt us on defense. He is a mediocre DH. Having Garver and Donaldson might help a little, but you're right, missing them isn't the problem.

I think the problem here is simple. We counted on Kirilloff, Kepler and Sano to all be middle of the order hitters in order to make this lineup click. History tells us that Kepler and Sano are not that kind of hitter and it's become even more obvious with Cruz no longer on the team to carry the middle of the order. There is no reason to expect any significant improving change from either Kepler or Sano. I hope I am wrong but they may be at the point in their careers where the change is likely to be negative, not positive. Kirilloff is at this point a complete wild card because he hasn't now been healthy for almost a year and has never proven himself at the MLB level. This team lacks a middle of the order hitter outside of maybe Polanco and that's why we can't score any runs.

Guys, I think we've seen enough to know that it's time for Plan B for this season. We are not going to be able to bash other teams with slow footed power hitters. Ours are not good enough and MLB is now putting the baseballs in humidors so they don't carry as far. We need to inject speed and athleticism into the lineup. To me, that means much more playing time for Gordon in particular, and a look at AAA to see who can help us down there – maybe Miranda, Contreras, and even Martin from AA. We need to make adjustments on the fly and we need to do it soon or this season is going to be another "development year" where the team's idea of development is to continue to trot out the same guys and somehow hope they get better. Let's not do that again.
 

[RpR]

25 minutes ago, bighat said:

They will turn it around - the question is how long will it take? Took them until July last year, and by then the pitching had cratered and there was a new problem to fix. Season was over before it even started.

Unfortunately, even if Buxton, Correa, Polanco and Urshela get hot, the Twins still have the Larnach-Kepler-Sano-Jeffers problem. The Twins need at least 3 of that group to start firing on all cylinders to have a chance, even if a guy like Gordon emerges as a serviceable player.

It's a marathon not a sprint, it doesn't have to all come together at once. But we have to expect to see some progress, somewhere, from someone, very soon.

Why Larnach is still up makes no sense; so many here think the Twins are just an extension of AAA, so even I think at this point try some rookies in Left field who have good arms.

Jeffers being no. 1 catcher was the worst mistake the Twins have made in a long, long time.

[wsnydes]

1 minute ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I agree with some of this, but not all. Here's where we disagree. I think Urshela is actually a pretty good hitter. Jeffers is not. I don't think that Kepler is a wild card all - I think we know what he is. He's a .220 - .230 hitter with a good glove and some pop. He is fine as the third or fourth OF on a good team. He is NOT good enough to hit in the middle of the lineup or turn the team around offensively. Same with Sano. He's a streaky hitter who will give us 25+ homeruns, hit between .210 and .235, and hurt us on defense. He is a mediocre DH. Having Garver and Donaldson might help a little, but you're right, missing them isn't the problem.

I think the problem here is simple. We counted on Kirilloff, Kepler and Sano to all be middle of the order hitters in order to make this lineup click. History tells us that Kepler and Sano are not that kind of hitter and it's become even more obvious with Cruz no longer on the team to carry the middle of the order. There is no reason to expect any significant improving change from either Kepler or Sano. I hope I am wrong but they may be at the point in their careers where the change is likely to be negative, not positive. Kirilloff is at this point a complete wild card because he hasn't now been healthy for almost a year and has never proven himself at the MLB level. This team lacks a middle of the order hitter outside of maybe Polanco and that's why we can't score any runs.

Guys, I think we've seen enough to know that it's time for Plan B for this season. We are not going to be able to bash other teams with slow footed power hitters. Ours are not good enough and MLB is now putting the baseballs in humidors so they don't carry as far. We need to inject speed and athleticism into the lineup. To me, that means much more playing time for Gordon in particular, and a look at AAA to see who can help us down there – maybe Miranda, Contreras, and even Martin from AA. We need to make adjustments on the fly and we need to do it soon or this season is going to be another "development year" where the team's idea of development is to continue to trot out the same guys and somehow hope they get better. Let's not do that again.
 

I didn't plan for Kirilloff, Kepler or Sano to be anywhere but the bottom third of the order.  I like Correa in the 2 hole.  It's leadoff, #3 and #4 spots that I can configure in a couple of ways depending on matchups.  Arraez, Buxton and Polanco can round out the top 5 just fine.  I figured that Sanchez would be flipped, and that hasn't happened.  And he's kind of what blows up most of the way that I'd build the bottom of the order.  But I had hoped that Kirilloff would step up and produce and possibly move up, but I certainly wasn't planning on it.

[nicksaviking]

There are quite a few guys in AAA and AA who look more than happy to take the jobs of most of these guys. 

If the Twins aren't .500 by the end of June, I wouldn't be surprised if Polanco ends up being the oldest Twins offensive starter. Heck, maybe the oldest rostered offensive player.

[Five minute major]

The entire lineup benefitted from the mere presence of Nelson Cruz.   It cannot be overstated what he did for the Twins O as a whole and we are seeing the effects of his removal.   The best free agent signing the Twins ever made.  I don't blame them for not resigning as his age was starting to show.  But damn those were some fun lineups with Nellie in the middle.

[RpR]

7 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

There are quite a few guys in AAA and AA who look more than happy to take the jobs of most of these guys. 

If the Twins aren't .500 by the end of June, I wouldn't be surprised if Polanco ends up being the oldest Twins offensive starter. Heck, maybe the oldest rostered offensive player.

Odds are that would be just like last year where all proved they did not belong in the Majors; at that trying one, with a strong arm,  in left field might not hurt.

[cHawk]

CAN they turn it around?

Of course.

WILL they turn it around?

[LA VIkes Fan]

43 minutes ago, wsnydes said:

I didn't plan for Kirilloff, Kepler or Sano to be anywhere but the bottom third of the order.  I like Correa in the 2 hole.  It's leadoff, #3 and #4 spots that I can configure in a couple of ways depending on matchups.  Arraez, Buxton and Polanco can round out the top 5 just fine.  I figured that Sanchez would be flipped, and that hasn't happened.  And he's kind of what blows up most of the way that I'd build the bottom of the order.  But I had hoped that Kirilloff would step up and produce and possibly move up, but I certainly wasn't planning on it.

I think this is where we disagree.  I agree that Arraez, Correa, Polanco , and Buxton are quality MLB hitters.  I just don't see any of them well suited to a run producing spot like #4 or #5 and that's assuming that Polanco can be the #3 hole hitter.  Really, Correa and Polanco are pretty similar hitters, both around .265-.280/ .325-.340/ .475-.520 with Correa more in the .850 plus OPS range and Polanco more like .800. Interestingly, Correa has really been a boom or bust a guy with an OPS either at .850 or higher (2019 and 2021) or in the low to mid  .700s (2018 and 2020).  A lot of his value is as the best defensive shortstop in baseball, not as a hitter. Still, even with Correa and Polanco holding down the #2 and #3 spots - a bit of a stretch for Polanco - we lack the quality leadoff hitter and putting Arraez or Urshela in the #4 and #5 spots is really a stretch for them. They are both better suited to hitting #6 or in Arraez' case, as a possible leadoff hitter but there he's too damn slow.  Buxton can either leadoff or hit #4, but he's really not suited for either spot. He also should probably be hitting #2. 

Really, what this team lacks is the traditional middle of the order bopper will hits for a high average with some power or hits 260-.275 with 30+ homerun power. It's possible that Buxton could develop into that guy, but you hate to waste his speed by putting him in the middle of the order behind a slow guy like Arraez. The rest of the group is just a bunch of mismatched pieces. That's why we struggle to score runs.

Maybe the answer is to try something different. Let's put Nick Gordon in the leadoff spot, followed by Correa, Polanco and Buxton. Urshela and Arraez can hit #5 and #6 in some order depending on whether a RH or LH starts, and the bottom three can be some combination of Kepler, Larnach, Sano, and whoever is catching that day. That still leaves is a major black hole at the bottom of the order, although Sanchez can profile is a good #7 hitter, but at least we have a chance to score some runs through the top six spots in the order. We'll have to score those runs by guys getting lots of singles and doubles and situational hitting with some but not a lot of power. I just think that's who this team is right now. we aren't going to bash our way to the top. 

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Ted, good post. Thanks.

You listed 9 position players comparing OPS data. Here’s my question: how many of those players are on the Twins next year (or even post the trade deadline)?

Quick take: three - Arraez, Polanco and Jeffers.  You didn’t list Buxton and Kiriloff,  but they will be too. Possibly Larnach - but not mission critical. The rest will be traded or DFA’d if they don’t get their act together and, for several of them, even if they do.

That leaves 4 starting positions vacant (three of we can somehow hold on to Correa).  Miranda, Lewis and Martin will be here in August.

Assuming we keep Correa, would anyone be sad if our starting position player lineup in August were:

1B Kiriloff, 2B Polanco, SS Correa, 3B Miranda,  LF Martin, CF Buxton, RF Lewis, C Jeffers, DH Arraez?

Even if Correa is traded for a haul, we could put Lewis at SS, Arraez at 1B and Kiriloff in RF.

Either one of those lineups is more exciting/interesting to watch and positions us better for next season and beyond.

I’m not worried - I like the future. 

 

 

Don't know that I agree those are likely lineups for August '22, but I think there's a very real chance the non-Correa lineup is pretty accurate for opening day '23. I'd at least think that's the hope at least.

[Linus]

It’s not hard to figure out why this lineup is not producing. Half the spots are black holes and I have no expectation that Sano Kepler Sanchez or Jeffers will substantially improve. Larnach has hit some balls hard and is still gaining experience so he might produce. I’m really worried about Jeffers - he’s getting worse. 

[adorduan]

The hitting will heat up when the pitching goes south.  It's the Twins way....