Who Gets Dealt?

[stringer bell]

Speculation on how the Twins can improve their team to contend during 2022. If they perform decently to the trade deadline, the choice may be  moving a prospect or two in exchange for major league talent to fill a hole. Who would get dealt? I wonder if they let one of their top position prospects go. Specifically, do they view Miranda as the future third baseman and Lewis as the future shortstop. And what of Martin? I've imagined he would find a home in the outfield (probably left), but right now he's in AA and actually not doing too well, while playing shortstop. If it is a pitcher, it really could be any of them. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

Speculation on how the Twins can improve their team to contend during 2022. If they perform decently to the trade deadline, the choice may be  moving a prospect or two in exchange for major league talent to fill a hole. Who would get dealt? I wonder if they let one of their top position prospects go. Specifically, do they view Miranda as the future third baseman and Lewis as the future shortstop. And what of Martin? I've imagined he would find a home in the outfield (probably left), but right now he's in AA and actually not doing too well, while playing shortstop. If it is a pitcher, it really could be any of them. 

I think it is far more likely that the Twins sell at the deadline than buy.

[gunnarthor]

Honestly, I'm a bit pessimistic. The FO has to know they are on a short-leash at this point so maybe they do some "win-now" trades but I think our pitching staff is just so bad that we could see a fire-sale at the deadline and then see the youngsters coming up.

[wsnydes]

I think it's far more likely that established major league talent gets dealt.  I think they've set themselves up more for next year and beyond than for this year.  So, I don't see prospects getting dealt.

And I don't think anyone on the big league club gets dealt solely because of being sellers either.  I think it's possible someone gets dealt because one of the prospects is beating down the door to get a big league roster spot.  

[baul0010]

10 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

Honestly, I'm a bit pessimistic. The FO has to know they are on a short-leash at this point so maybe they do some "win-now" trades but I think our pitching staff is just so bad that we could see a fire-sale at the deadline and then see the youngsters coming up.

I don't think they are on a short leash.  I think they have at least 3 years, until the wave of prospects start to hit late this year and next year.  Then they'll have a year to get everyone going.  I could easily see a veteran sell off at the deadline to load up on more MLB ready talent.  I don't see ownership doing anything until the F.O. can at least be judged on the talent acquisition over the last 4/5 years.  

[gunnarthor]

59 minutes ago, baul0010 said:

I don't think they are on a short leash.  I think they have at least 3 years, until the wave of prospects start to hit late this year and next year.  Then they'll have a year to get everyone going.  I could easily see a veteran sell off at the deadline to load up on more MLB ready talent.  I don't see ownership doing anything until the F.O. can at least be judged on the talent acquisition over the last 4/5 years.  

That may happen but I doubt it. Smith was given 4 years and he made the playoffs in two of them, went to a game 163 in the other, had one total system failure year. His teams set attendance records as well. Ryan was given 5 years and was fired during his total system failure season which was one year after the waive of youngsters came up (Buxton and Berrios spent less time in the minors that the new FO's equivalent picks - Lewis and Enlow). And attendance was good until his TSF season. This is the sixth season for Falvey. They haven't had much production from their minor leaguers yet and they've made a number of bad trades. Attendance has been bad under them (not all of that is their fault, obviously, but they had attendance issues before COVID). And they've had two dumpster fire seasons already. I don't know that we need another three years. 

[Vanimal46]

Falvey and Levine have shown to be fluid with trades. Making some “win-now” plays simultaneously with selling plays. I could see a top prospect like Balazovic or Lewis traded if a great pitcher/premium position player with 2-3 years of control becomes available. 

Unfortunately I can also see them giving up too early, especially if we keep digging a hole in April, and trade away Correa, Kepler, etc. for prospects. 

[Cap'n Piranha]

16 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

That may happen but I doubt it. Smith was given 4 years and he made the playoffs in two of them, went to a game 163 in the other, had one total system failure year. His teams set attendance records as well. Ryan was given 5 years and was fired during his total system failure season which was one year after the waive of youngsters came up (Buxton and Berrios spent less time in the minors that the new FO's equivalent picks - Lewis and Enlow). And attendance was good until his TSF season. This is the sixth season for Falvey. They haven't had much production from their minor leaguers yet and they've made a number of bad trades. Attendance has been bad under them (not all of that is their fault, obviously, but they had attendance issues before COVID). And they've had two dumpster fire seasons already. I don't know that we need another three years. 

What are the two dumpster fire seasons?  2021 obviously (even though it was still better than 4 out of TR 2.0's 5 seasons).  Also, I think we could explain the bad attendance in 2017 on the horrific 2016 season, no?  You also can't blame them for low attendance in 2020 or 2021, and the attendance is definitely low in 2022, but perhaps that has something to do with bad April weather killing walk-up sales, and a sport-crushing lockout?  So in 6 seasons, I'd use attendance as a valid point in 2 of them; if Falvine get fired after this year (which of course assumes a season at least as bad, if not worse than last year), attendance will be nowhere near the list of reasons for Jim Pohlad to swing the ax.

As for TR's attendance, 4 of his 5 seasons were still in the TF 5 year honeymoon period, when the park itself drew fans.  This should be clear, since in 2016 the Twins still drew 24k a game, despite everything going on.

[Dman]

I think this team can set itself up well for veteran deadline deals.  They have Bundy, Archer and Gray all on two year deals.  They have Sanchez on a one and done and Urshela on a two year deal.  They also could deal Sano, Kepler or Arraez if the price were right and of course the big piece to unload would be Correa.  Granted those players have to perform well in order to make it worth trading and not all of them will have good to great years but the Twins are well positioned for a sell off if they decide to go that route.  

Bundy and Archer seem the most likely to go IMO.  They have Maeda coming back next year and Paddack for two more years and I have to believe one of Winder, Sands, Balazovich, Henriquez and SWR should push for time at the big league level this year.  That would\could give them three young starters in Ryan, Ober and Winder et al to go with Gray, Maeda and Paddack.  

I still think this season is all about the young guys and hoping they push the older players out of their spots giving the Twins a chance to reload the farm while hopefully promoting good young talent to the MLB team.

The Twins will need to seriously be in the hunt for the FO to not make trades for the future IMO.

[Doctor Gast]

Even if we were tearing up the Central Division, I don't think this FO is going buck their nature and trade for a frontline SP at the deadline especially now with us having a 6 man rotation. I have no idea what they think they can do with Paddack, I don't think he fits the Twins mold to help.

Archer, Bundy and Gray has been their best pitchers, Ryan & Ober haven't been bad, do  we rotate them at SP and long relief? to make room for a frontline SP. I don't think it's a bad idea, but of memory this FO has only made 1 trade for a SP at the deadline and that was Jamie Garcia. In 2017 when the Twins were in the hunt for a wild card spot, they got Garcia which after a couple of days they couldn't stand it any longer so they traded him away along with a bunch of other players. We got the wild card spot but did not advanced. This FO loves to have firesales.

We have a team that can do great things. Rogers for Paddack won't do it. I would have loved to get a front line SP this off season or even one before the deadline (the highest I'd go for prospects is Balazovik). Even when we're in the hunt for a play-off spot, I'd be scared to death that this FO will start another Fire Sale. Any FO who is so hooked on fire sales will NEVER get far in the post season. 

[tony&rodney]

April is the cruelest month. Right?

It is pretty early to be thinking about whether Pohlad tosses the wunderkids or there is a vast selloff. Trades can happen at any time, as we found out in the last month. Management will want to see the light of day on June 1 at the earliest before they make the next plan.

[GNess]

The premise of this survey/article was IF the Twins were in contention, which prospects are likely to be moved to enhance the club. Most posts deny this premise and turn it on its head.

If we accept the premise the additions will likely come in the way of RP. (Based on the six games played to date.) I would want the FO to make a move or two if the Twins find themselves in a reasonably competitive position, but surrendering Top 10 prospects at this stage doesn't make sense because these are the players the FO is banking on to get the Twins over the hump.

Having said all that I would say None of the Above - it will be lesser prospects for some RP help.

[tony&rodney]

Well, how to improve? Trade for Bryan Reynolds.

[Cap'n Piranha]

If we are assuming the Twins will be in contention come late July, history tells us that the FO will look to add a good-not-great reliever or two, perhaps a 4th/5th starter.

What I would like them to do (based on what has happened so far this year) is add a big middle of the order bat, ideally a right-handed corner OF or 1B, allowing the Twins to have a Top 5 of Buxton, Arraez, Polanco, Correa, new bat (this assumes Arraez will DH more often than not).

Concurrently, I want them to add a bullpen alpha--someone at least as good as, but hopefully better than Rogers.  This assumes solid development from Duran and Alcala to give the Twins a three-headed backend monster.  If that doesn't materialize, then I want them to go get 2-3 guys not quite as good as Rogers, and go with the mix-and-match from depth approach.

[twins_89]

I don't see much chance of the team trading prospects to win this season. I think they go with the current roster for a couple more months and then start trading off players. Correa, Sanchez, Duffey, Bundy, Archer, and Smith are likely to be gone by the trade deadline. I also think Gray, Sano, Urshela, and Pagan will be very available.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, twins_89 said:

I don't see much chance of the team trading prospects to win this season.

How about if the Twins tried to overwhelm Pittsburgh for Reynolds, who still has four more seasons of control?

[chpettit19]

19 hours ago, GNess said:

The premise of this survey/article was IF the Twins were in contention, which prospects are likely to be moved to enhance the club. Most posts deny this premise and turn it on its head.

If we accept the premise the additions will likely come in the way of RP. (Based on the six games played to date.) I would want the FO to make a move or two if the Twins find themselves in a reasonably competitive position, but surrendering Top 10 prospects at this stage doesn't make sense because these are the players the FO is banking on to get the Twins over the hump.

Having said all that I would say None of the Above - it will be lesser prospects for some RP help.

Pretty much my exact thoughts. If they're competing it's because the starters are doing well (be it the guys they have now or the young guys that come up throughout the year) and the offense is scoring runs. The most likely moves would be pen arms or depth pieces for the bench so you're not talking giving up any of those big time prospects.

[PatPfund]

I hope the Twins are as down on trading Lewis as we are. He has looked good at short and at the plate so far, and they need a plan if/when Correa opts out at the end of the year. I don't see anyone else on the SS horizon (Martin has looked great running the bases, but pretty awful defensively at short; hope he gets work in the OF). It would be tough to trade the pitchers listed; if they perform they are too valuable to lose, if they are injured they are untrade-able (looking at you Canterino).

[twinssporto]

I doubt they trade away any minor league pitching but could see them throwing a decent non-pitching prospect into the mix for a really decent veteran. Oh! I hope we have to worry about that come July!

[ashbury]

Pitching being the coin of the realm, it's a dilemma. You won't get a good and established starting pitcher without giving up a young arm in return. I don't want to give up any of those.  For a reliever I wouldn't want to give up anyone named above.  So I'll go with, "none of these."