From Rosenthal's latest piece, he says "the Twins estimate the value of the player they will get from the group they are considering to be $2 million-plus."

Impossible to say how specific players are valued, but I can't imagine a prospect outside of the Top 20(ish) would be described as a $2-million plus player. That's a Top 35-type pick in the draft.

SD not giving back a top prospect as already gave up a starter (they could now use) and a decent bullpen arm. 

Likely a very young guy or an older prospect to clear room in their system for up and comers. 

Morejon would make some sense as he has not stayed healthy... lottery ticket with upside. 

Big young arms or older ones with 2 pitch ability for the pen would also make sense.. to many options to actually have a clue... but my shot in the dark... 

but... old guys that fit... 

Steven Wilson 27... 

Ray Kerr... LHP actually would make a bunch of sense for bullpen.. 

Young guys.. 

Susana would make sense and be a great get... !!

Jagger Haynes.. LHP.. coming back from TJ.. projectable project... 

 

 

11 hours ago, Jeremy Nygaard said:

From Rosenthal's latest piece, he says "the Twins estimate the value of the player they will get from the group they are considering to be $2 million-plus."

Impossible to say how specific players are valued, but I can't imagine a prospect outside of the Top 20(ish) would be described as a $2-million plus player. That's a Top 35-type pick in the draft.

Pretty sure that's a 40 FV.... So, if you went to Fangraphs, you'd look for prospects with that FV. 

Fangraphs has not updated their ranking for the Padres yet, probably because one of their prospect guys is in the twins front office as of a month ago..  

13 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Pretty sure that's a 40 FV.... So, if you went to Fangraphs, you'd look for prospects with that FV. 

I feel pretty confident that the three I mention as most likely to be included are all in the 40 FV range, without seeing their updated ranking. Lizarraga is a 45 on MLB and Kopps and Susana are both 40, though they don't distinguish between 40 and 40+ like Fangraphs.

17 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Fangraphs has not updated their ranking for the Padres yet, probably because one of their prospect guys is in the twins front office as of a month ago..  

And now we know why it is a PTBNL.  They are waiting for Fangraphs to be updated. ?

Seems like good news if Ken's comment about $2 million+ valuation (and so 40 FV) is true.  Last year's Fangraphs list has their 10-25 prospects all at 40 FV, so seems reasonable that they found roughly 6 prospects to have on the list in that range as options.

I'm not at my computer, so it could be 35.... I'll check and update this.

For batters, it is the 40FV. For pitchers, it is on the fence between 40 and 45.....so, 40+.

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm not at my computer, so it could be 35.... I'll check and update this.

For batters, it is the 40FV. For pitchers, it is on the fence between 40 and 45.....so, 40+.

Nice! I'm sticking with my three. All of which would be good gets.

1 hour ago, Jeremy Nygaard said:

Nice! I'm sticking with my three. All of which would be good gets.

Susana makes the most sense to me, if he literally can't be traded for a while.

Also, if there is any contingency aspect to the eventual choice of player, today's start by Paddack serves to bump up the quality of our mystery player by some tiny increment.

8 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Susana makes the most sense to me, if he literally can't be traded for a while.

Also, if there is any contingency aspect to the eventual choice of player, today's start by Paddack serves to bump up the quality of our mystery player by some tiny increment.

Susana "signed" on January 15 at the opening of the IFA window. I'm guessing the official signing took place some days after, assuming he was brought to San Diego for a physical. He's prohibited from being traded for 90 days from the day the pen hit the paper, so we're looking at probably sometime next week at the earliest.

Great piece and interesting discussion.  Trying to piece a few clues together, it seems in the past when the PTBL is just a throw in, you hear the beat writers report that the player is nothing special.  We’ve not heard that with this PTBL, so it should be something.  Couple that with the Rosenthal comments of the value being “2 million plus”, and it’s definitely worth trying to parse out who it might be. Looking on the Baseball Trade Values site, here are some listed values:

Susana RHP 2.9 (Keith Law: honorable mention)

Gasser LHP 2.4 (Keith Law: #9)

Acosta SS 2.4 (Law #11)

Rosario 2B 2.4 (Law#15)

Lizarraga RHP 1.9 (Law#14)

Kopps RHP 1.9 (Law#19)

Morejon is 6.6 and is listed on the Padres 40-man roster, so I don’t see how he could be the guy.

Rosenthal also suggests they are selecting from a group of players.  Now, maybe the Padres gave them six names to choose from, but isn’t it possible that Minnesota told SD to pick 12 guys that are off limits, and Minnesota could choose anyone from the rest of their system?

One player not mentioned so far that might fit the bill:  24 year old “funky” LHP Ethan Elliott.  He’s reached AA, and is listed in Law’s honorable mentions.  He went to a small college in Tennessee, and in his college and early minors career, posted consistently good K/9 numbers, exceptional BB/9 numbers, and also has limited H/9 and HR/9.  He had a 40FV on Fangraphs in 2021, and he’s listed on the Baseball Trade Values page as 2.1 in value.

Seems to match up with a lot of the criteria.  Probably would prefer Gasser or Susana, but Elliott looks intriguing.

Baseball America just released their updated Top 30.

13) Kevin Kopps

14) Jarlin Susana

15) Victor Lizarraga

2 hours ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

 

One player not mentioned so far that might fit the bill:  24 year old “funky” LHP Ethan Elliott.  He’s reached AA, and is listed in Law’s honorable mentions.  

 

Elliott could certainly end up being the guy. Like you said, he's "funky" and the Twins focus has been more on guys with sliders (which pushes Kopps and Susana up my list). Lizarraga isn't a slider guy, but he's still very young.

On 4/12/2022 at 10:14 PM, Jeremy Nygaard said:

From Rosenthal's latest piece, he says "the Twins estimate the value of the player they will get from the group they are considering to be $2 million-plus."

Impossible to say how specific players are valued, but I can't imagine a prospect outside of the Top 20(ish) would be described as a $2-million plus player. That's a Top 35-type pick in the draft.

Just to be clear, $2 mil is the recommended bonus/slot for the #35 pick but that isn't really reflective of the player's value.

Fangraphs estimated the #35 pick to be worth $8.8 mil in 2019

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-on-how-to-value-draft-picks/

A couple years ago, Fangraphs pegged the value of a 40 FV position player prospect at $2 mil:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/putting-a-dollar-value-on-prospects-outside-the-top-100/

That fits with Baseball Trade Values pegging Rooker at $1.9 mil in this deal.

They also estimated a 40+ FV pitcher at $3 mil, and a 40 FV pitcher at $1 mil.

So one way to look at it, we might just be exchanging Rooker for someone younger or a better positional fit for us.

7 minutes ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

A couple years ago, Fangraphs pegged the value of a 40 FV position player prospect at $2 mil:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/putting-a-dollar-value-on-prospects-outside-the-top-100/

That fits with Baseball Trade Values pegging Rooker at $1.9 mil in this deal.

They also estimated a 40+ FV pitcher at $3 mil, and a 40 FV pitcher at $1 mil.

So one way to look at it, we might just be exchanging Rooker for someone younger or a better positional fit for us.

It will be interesting to see how the Padres prospects are graded when Fangraphs releases their list. I don't want to use another list to compare because that's apples and oranges, but based on how the Padres use a lot of their prospects in deals, I have to guess they don't have a ton of pitchers that rank higher than 40+ or hitters that are higher than 40 FV. 

That said, Kevin Goldstein - as I posted in today's video - was high on Susana when he was still at Fangraphs. I don't see any way he's higher than a 40 or 40+. Didn't look too much, but IFAs usually take awhile to go above 40.

11 minutes ago, Jeremy Nygaard said:

It will be interesting to see how the Padres prospects are graded when Fangraphs releases their list. I don't want to use another list to compare because that's apples and oranges, but based on how the Padres use a lot of their prospects in deals, I have to guess they don't have a ton of pitchers that rank higher than 40+ or hitters that are higher than 40 FV. 

That said, Kevin Goldstein - as I posted in today's video - was high on Susana when he was still at Fangraphs. I don't see any way he's higher than a 40 or 40+. Didn't look too much, but IFAs usually take awhile to go above 40.

Fangraphs has an international board that already lists Susana at 40+ -- that may be why BTV is pegging his median surplus value at $2.9 mil:

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/international-players/summary?sort=-1,1&type=0&pg=0&pageitems=10000000000000&q=Susana

Fangraphs also listed him as the #1 international pitcher (non-NBP amateur), as did MLB Pipeline. His $1.7 mil bonus was the highest for any pitcher in the class, and ~14th highest overall, I think.

If Susana was the guy, or was available on a list for the Twins to select, I don't know if I would describe this PTNBL as Wolfson and Rosenthal have done so far. He's not really a normal 40+ FV prospect.

Although you are right that the Padres have been aggressive in trades.

14 minutes ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

Fangraphs has an international board that already lists Susana at 40+ -- that may be why BTV is pegging his median surplus value at $2.9 mil:

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/international-players/summary?sort=-1,1&type=0&pg=0&pageitems=10000000000000&q=Susana

Fangraphs also listed him as the #1 international pitcher (non-NBP amateur), as did MLB Pipeline. His $1.7 mil bonus was the highest for any pitcher in the class, and ~14th highest overall, I think.

If Susana was the guy, or was available on a list for the Twins to select, I don't know if I would describe this PTNBL as Wolfson and Rosenthal have done so far. He's not really a normal 40+ FV prospect.

Although you are right that the Padres have been aggressive in trades.

Lizarraga was the #1 (non-Cuban) pitcher on MLB.com the year prior. He debuted as a 35+ on the Padres board last year. That demographic has such a high probability of failure, I can easily see it being where the PTBNL comes from. And the 90-day prohibition of being traded makes sense for Susana too. It could also be that it doesn't have to make any sense. It could be someone the prospect lists like, it could be someone it doesn't. Either way, it's fun to talk about.

Brayan Medina come on down! 

1 hour ago, Cris E said:

Brayan Medina come on down! 

Yeesh.  Another big arm that can't find the strike zone.  It's the Twins' catnip, or maybe their kryptonite.