Kirilloff's cold start

[Hunter48]

17 minutes ago, RpR said:

Gee, what do you think carries more weight to managers, what they see, or what an electronic gizmo said at one time some where.

No wait, Keplers 6-4 height stride slows him down because any one knows Gordon's 6-0 height shorter stride legs are move faster.?

Yao Ming will always beat Usain Bolt in the 100 meter dash...

[RpR]

12 minutes ago, PseudoSABR said:

All those scouts with their guns, when they can just use their EYES. The cops should probably just get rid of their fancy gizmos, and go with the eyetest in court.  "Your honor, he was speeding, I can tell because I managed little league."

WOW, you mean they sit with radar guns every game , every day, every year and see if a six foot tall guy can run faster than a six-four guy; they have way too much time on their hands.?

[RpR]

14 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

Stop it. You are crossing the line into trolling. 

I am answering with the same tone of logic they are using.

[RpR]

8 minutes ago, Hunter48 said:

Yao Ming will always beat Usain Bolt in the 100 meter dash...

Only if they are both playing baseball, more important there would be Yao Ming's huge strike zone.?

[Rosterman]

Not like Sano is doing any better. Polanco was also having difficulty. But, hey, it is THREE GAMES!

[dxpavelka]

10 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Nah. He has faced LHP as much as RHP, the weather has sucked (first two games, anyway), and he's coming back from prolonged off-time. All of that will normalize in the coming month.

Worth noting that we really don't yet know what "normal" even is...

[PseudoSABR]

35 minutes ago, RpR said:

WOW, you mean they sit with radar guns every game , every day, every year and see if a six foot tall guy can run faster than a six-four guy; they have way too much time on their hands.?

What?

[Brock Beauchamp]

46 minutes ago, RpR said:

WOW, you mean they sit with radar guns every game , every day, every year and see if a six foot tall guy can run faster than a six-four guy; they have way too much time on their hands.?

Every MLB stadium is equipped with tracking sensors that literally track the speed, route, and a bunch of information on every. single. play. that. happens. about. every. single. player. on. the. field.

[RpR]

Just now, Brock Beauchamp said:

Every MLB stadium is equipped with tracking sensors that literally track the speed, route, and a bunch of information on every. single. play. that. happens. about. every. single. player. on. the. field.

Where does one find it.

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 minutes ago, RpR said:

Where does one find it.

Not all of it is public facing but some of it can be found at baseballsavant.mlb.com.

[a-wan]

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/nick-gordon-624503?stats=statcast-r-running-mlb

[a-wan]

Or https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sprint_speed_leaderboard

 

Gordon 27.9, same as Jake Cave.

[RpR]

16 minutes ago, a-wan said:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/nick-gordon-624503?stats=statcast-r-running-mlb

Fascinating , is there any measure of running while tracking a ball with a glove on any where?

[chpettit19]

12 hours ago, RpR said:

Fascinating , is there any measure of running while tracking a ball with a glove on any where?

It's not broken down exactly like that, but they do measure how quick of a jump the player gets after contact, the distance covered on any individual play, the efficiency of the route they took, the percent chance that an average player would've caught the ball on an individual play, the number of times a player reaches 30 ft/sec sprinting on any play (base running or fielding), and a number of other things. It's not all available to the general public, but most of that stuff is and it all says Nick Gordon is fast enough to play the outfield and unquestionably faster than Max Kepler. His problem is he's new to the outfield and gets bad jumps and takes bad routes. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

21 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

It's not broken down exactly like that, but they do measure how quick of a jump the player gets after contact, the distance covered on any individual play, the efficiency of the route they took, the percent chance that an average player would've caught the ball on an individual play, the number of times a player reaches 30 ft/sec sprinting on any play (base running or fielding), and a number of other things. It's not all available to the general public, but most of that stuff is and it all says Nick Gordon is fast enough to play the outfield and unquestionably faster than Max Kepler. His problem is he's new to the outfield and gets bad jumps and takes bad routes. 

To put Gordon's lack of experience into context, let's remember that Kepler himself was a meh prospect on both sides of the ball for a long time because he didn't take up baseball until he was fifteen years old.

Gordon took up the outfield like four minutes ago.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

To put Gordon's lack of experience into context, let's remember that Kepler himself was a meh prospect on both sides of the ball for a long time because he didn't take up baseball until he was fifteen years old.

Gordon took up the outfield like four minutes ago.

That unerring fount of wisdom, Wikipedia, states that Max started baseball at age 6.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 minute ago, ashbury said:

That unerring fount of wisdom, Wikipedia, states that Max started baseball at age 6.

Maybe he didn't really play seriously until he was a teenager. I don't remember the specifics but I do know that when he was signed, he was considered wildly athletic but incredibly raw because he simply hadn't played baseball much.

[TwinsDr2021]

17 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Do you have any data around rookies more often starting slow than fast?  You're saying almost guaranteed, which to me suggests you think a rookie is going to start slow something like 80-90% of the time--is that supported, or is that simply a supposition on your part?

No, you didn't suggest sending him down; that part of my response was designed to show the danger in calling the first 3 games a "slow start".  If AK's games 4 and 5 are identical to Buxton's games 2 and 3 from an offensive standpoint, we're (meaning everyone on this thread) not having this convo.

Miranda is in the minors because it's clear he would not play every day in MLB (Urshela and Arraez both need time at 3B); same with Larnach (Kiriloff and Sano need time at LF and 1B).  If Kiriloff or Sano gets hurt, I would not be surprised if Larnach gets the call (unless he's still scuffling).  With Miranda, it might take even more, as right now he's 6th on the infield depth chart (Correa, Polanco, Arraez, Urshela, Gordon), so it might take 2 out of those 5 getting hurt/struggling/being moved to the outfield for him to come up.

I don't have any data, but looking at a couple dozen of them, it seems to me as if most start out a bit slow, do you have data that rookies start out not slow? I also say that because people expecting rookies to be better than average are most likely to be let down.  Baseball people like numbers if you start 4 rookies or close to rookies, the odds are probably one is good, two are average at the absolute best and 1 is terrible.

Also if you are 0-12 or 1 -15, I think by definition that is a slow start ( I would say Correa, Sano, Kepler and AK are all off to a slow start, doesn't mean it won't change tomorrow)

I also disagree with your premise that Miranda and Larnach are in the minors because they wouldn't play everyday, the are in the minors because the FO believe the other players they have would perform better, which might be the same thing as you are saying.

[rv78]

Through the first series Kirilloff is 1-15, Sano is 0-16, Kepler is 1-15, Correa is 2-17. Kirilloff is getting paid the league minimum of what?... $700,000? Sano is getting $9.25M, Kepler is making $6.75M, Correa is at $35.1M. Yeah, let's pick on Kirilloff for not performing up to expectations this early in the season.

[Rosterman]

11 minutes ago, rv78 said:

Through the first series Kirilloff is 1-15, Sano is 0-16, Kepler is 1-15, Correa is 2-17. Kirilloff is getting paid the league minimum of what?... $700,000? Sano is getting $9.25M, Kepler is making $6.75M, Correa is at $35.1M. Yeah, let's pick on Kirilloff for not performing up to expectations this early in the season.

Let's judge them after the first two weeks.

[nicksaviking]

17 hours ago, RpR said:

Fascinating , is there any measure of running while tracking a ball with a glove on any where?

Either way, anyone who has played outfield at any level of baseball, even just Little League, knows that getting a good jump on a flyball takes lots of repetition. It's a learned skill, you'll get better at it the more you do it.

[Mike Sixel]

47 minutes ago, Rosterman said:

Let's judge them after the first two weeks.

First month or two.....

[Cap'n Piranha]

2 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I don't have any data, but looking at a couple dozen of them, it seems to me as if most start out a bit slow, do you have data that rookies start out not slow? I also say that because people expecting rookies to be better than average are most likely to be let down.  Baseball people like numbers if you start 4 rookies or close to rookies, the odds are probably one is good, two are average at the absolute best and 1 is terrible.

Also if you are 0-12 or 1 -15, I think by definition that is a slow start ( I would say Correa, Sano, Kepler and AK are all off to a slow start, doesn't mean it won't change tomorrow)

I also disagree with your premise that Miranda and Larnach are in the minors because they wouldn't play everyday, the are in the minors because the FO believe the other players they have would perform better, which might be the same thing as you are saying.

I don't have any data--but I'm not the one making the assertion--you are.  The burden of proof is therefore on you.  You said the Twins shouldn't have too many rookies in the lineup at the same time, because they're "almost guaranteed" (your words, not mine) to start slow, but then you never defended that.  Even in this post I'm responding to, you're throwing out more suppositions and speculation.  I would suggest not doing that if you're trying to argue a point.

[Obsvr]

This thread is amazing.

3 games...just...lol.

nothing to see here...move along.  Come back in mid May.

[TwinsDr2021]

13 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

I don't have any data--but I'm not the one making the assertion--you are.  The burden of proof is therefore on you.  You said the Twins shouldn't have too many rookies in the lineup at the same time, because they're "almost guaranteed" (your words, not mine) to start slow, but then you never defended that.  Even in this post I'm responding to, you're throwing out more suppositions and speculation.  I would suggest not doing that if you're trying to argue a point.

You replied to my comment which I stated my opinion on starting a season with multiple rookies in a lineup with "This is only logical if you assume rookies are much more likely to start the season cold--I don't ascribe to that thinking.  "

First you don't scribe to that, but didn't back it up with any stats. Second if you didn't like my opinion (which is also the opinion of most front offices in baseball that are actually trying to win that year) move on, I am not trying to sway your opinion or argue a point, If you want to sway my opinion, please feel free to throw out the data that shows my assumption/suppositions/speculation are incorrect.

[ashbury]

4 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Maybe he didn't really play seriously until he was a teenager. I don't remember the specifics but I do know that when he was signed, he was considered wildly athletic but incredibly raw because he simply hadn't played baseball much.

The level of competition and of teaching baseball would not be expected to be high in Germany.  Considering him "raw" when signed would be completely accurate.

[Cap'n Piranha]

22 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

You replied to my comment which I stated my opinion on starting a season with multiple rookies in a lineup with "This is only logical if you assume rookies are much more likely to start the season cold--I don't ascribe to that thinking.  "

First you don't scribe to that, but didn't back it up with any stats. Second if you didn't like my opinion (which is also the opinion of most front offices in baseball that are actually trying to win that year) move on, I am not trying to sway your opinion or argue a point, If you want to sway my opinion, please feel free to throw out the data that shows my assumption/suppositions/speculation are incorrect.

Saying I don't ascribe to the thinking that rookies are much more likely to start the season cold, does not mean I think they are more likely to start hot.  It means I don't agree with you.  As I am not providing an assertion one way or the other, no data need be presented.  The very fact that I'm not presenting data is the very reason I am, in fact, not making an assertion.

The Mariners are trying to win this year, and included J-Rod and Brash on their opening day lineup.  Houston declined to re-sign Correa in favor of Pena.  Tampa Bay constantly starts the year with rookies on their roster.  A number of other teams that are trying to win might not include rookies for a number of other reasons, for example they have established starters at almost every position (that's probably part of why they expect to win), or maybe they gutted their farm system to trade for stars, or perhaps they're keeping prospects down in order to get an extra year of control.

Yet again, you are claiming to know the beliefs and motivations of other people, while providing no data to back up your assertions.  It's fine if you want to do that, but it's silly to think you aren't going to get questioned on it.

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Saying I don't ascribe to the thinking that rookies are much more likely to start the season cold, does not mean I think they are more likely to start hot.  It means I don't agree with you.  As I am not providing an assertion one way or the other, no data need be presented.  The very fact that I'm not presenting data is the very reason I am, in fact, not making an assertion.

The Mariners are trying to win this year, and included J-Rod and Brash on their opening day lineup.  Houston declined to re-sign Correa in favor of Pena.  Tampa Bay constantly starts the year with rookies on their roster.  A number of other teams that are trying to win might not include rookies for a number of other reasons, for example they have established starters at almost every position (that's probably part of why they expect to win), or maybe they gutted their farm system to trade for stars, or perhaps they're keeping prospects down in order to get an extra year of control.

Yet again, you are claiming to know the beliefs and motivations of other people, while providing no data to back up your assertions.  It's fine if you want to do that, but it's silly to think you aren't going to get questioned on it.

You sound like the Major league guy changing the argument to make yourself look smart. The Mariners are starting one rookie in the field and he is hitting .071. ( in this case the pitcher is not relevant because this wasn't about pitching). Houston is starting one rookie (.300) and like the twins one younger guy (McCormick). Tampa is starting 1 rookie Lowe(.118) and like the Twins one younger guy (Franco) . TB last year started no-rookies and a young guy Arozarena)

The White sox have one young guy (vaughn),

I also looked at a few other teams (Mil, SD, LAA, LAD, ATL, Philly (1 rookie),NYY, Bos, CHC, Cards, Col, SF, Texas, did I miss any teams trying, and not 1 is starting multiple rookies in the field. Also went though a bunch of teams last year, and guess what not one started multiple rookies.

Finally you stated Tampa Bay constantly starts the year with rookies, going back to 2017 I couldn't find where they ever started the year with more than one in the field, so either I am bad at researching that or you just made up something and stated it as fact.

Maybe there has been a bunch of teams that were really trying to win with multiple rookies starting in the field to start the year and front offices don't think that is a bad idea because the back up plan is other rookies or AAA guys if they need more time in the minors. I would love to know what they teams were, because it isn't something teams recently have been doing.