Kirilloff's cold start

[Cap'n Piranha]

  On 4/11/2022 at 6:28 PM, TwinsDr2021 said:

This is way you can't start the season with too many rookies at starting, one (AK) and kind of a second (Jeffers) is OK, a team can afford to let one work though some issues (AK), but imagine if they had Miranda, Laranch and maybe even Lewis up and multiple players struggled, then what would they do. (Giving the FO credit for starting the season as they did, and I don't give them much credit ever)

So as long as the vets pick it up a bit (Kepler, Sano, Polanco, Correa) the have some time to let AK figure it out.

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This is only logical if you assume rookies are much more likely to start the season cold--I don't ascribe to that thinking.  As you noted, there are several vets who need to "pick it up" (yesterday's game papered over a lot of problems; that tends to happen when dealing with SSS).  To that point--say Kiriloff foes 4-5 with 2 HRs tonight--do we still think he needs to get sent down?

[Cap'n Piranha]

  On 4/11/2022 at 7:23 PM, Doctor Gast said:

Why is this important? Back in the 2019 Sid Hartman had an article (wish our FO had read) that stated that in 2018-2019 when Buxton was in the line-up we won 3 out 4 games and when he was subbed (mainly Cave) we lost 3 out 4 games. During this time Cave was at his best offensively and Buxton hadn't gotten started yet. So the main chasm in Wins/ Losses came from the deficit in the glove. I have got off subject a little only to rebuttle what was stated.

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Correlation, not causation.  What was the FIP and xFIP of the pitching staff in games Buxton played v not?  What pitchers did the Twins offense have to face when Buxton was out?  Were there other players who missed time with injuries or were playing through injuries when Buxton was out?  You can't just say a good CF is the entirety of the reason the Twins win, based on nothing other than a comparison of W/L record.

[PseudoSABR]

  On 4/11/2022 at 7:23 PM, Doctor Gast said:

Psuedo said that Gordon (recently converted OFer) and Celestino (young unproven rookie) are the best CF back ups.

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That's not what I said; it's hard to find better back ups for CF, a position that takes a rare-athlete to defend, so if you get any hitting it's all bonus. To be clear, no one is saying Gordon/Celestino are the best. smh

[chpettit19]

  On 4/11/2022 at 7:23 PM, Doctor Gast said:

My thread addresses the problems with  Kiriloff could be the cold, facing lefties and he needs to shack off some rust so I suggested that he & Celestino) should be sent to AAA to get some ABs. Again I state we can't do that because our options to replace them stinks. That has everything to do with this article.

I'm not against having older rookies that have been raking in the minors to get their feet wet but to depend so much on young rookies especially those that haven't really established themselves in the minors and putting them in a position where we go to the post season depends on them, no way.

Psuedo said that Gordon (recently converted OFer) and Celestino (young unproven rookie) are the best CF back ups. Dodgers stress depth at the key positions, Rays have 5 true MLB ready CFers that are better than our best back up. Last season Wade whom I rate as a better CFer than Cave was SF 5th CFer. My opinion, PIT has a better CF back-up than we do. If you have a decent CF back-up you are set in the OF. If you want to seriously contend you need viable back-up at key positions. That's where I want the Twins to be.

Why is this important? Back in the 2019 Sid Hartman had an article (wish our FO had read) that stated that in 2018-2019 when Buxton was in the line-up we won 3 out 4 games and when he was subbed (mainly Cave) we lost 3 out 4 games. During this time Cave was at his best offensively and Buxton hadn't gotten started yet. So the main chasm in Wins/ Losses came from the deficit in the glove. I have got off subject a little only to rebuttle what was stated.

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My problem with sending Kirilloff down after 3 games is that it's 3 games. If these 3 games happened in June and he was 0-12 from June 8th through 10th instead of April 8th through 10th would you be calling for him to be sent down to get ABs? Kirilloff is getting ABs in Minneapolis so I'm not sure why you'd have to send him down to get ABs in St Paul. He's also shown he's ready and capable of hitting major league pitching. His task is to adjust and get himself out of a cold streak at the major league level, not the minor league level. If he needs to be sent down every time he has an 0-12 streak he's not the player we need him to be. Everyone is dealing with the cold and he'll face lefties his whole career. The adjustment he has left to make is to be able to make adjustments to major league pitching and get himself back on track. The place to do that is the majors. He's in the 9 hole tonight which, I think, is a better place for him to get ABs and shake off some rust than St Paul.

As for Buxton vs Cave glove wise, it's absurd to suggest they go from a .750 team to a .250 team based off center field defense. If that's the suggestion Sid was making in the article he was wrong and that was an article he should've known better than to write. Defense is absolutely important, but it's not 50 percentage points important.

[tony&rodney]

Berrios lasted an inning, Manaea was perfect, and Kirilloff had three forgettable games. There is exactly zero reason to be concerned at this point. Check back after 50-75 at bats.

If folks are suicidal maybe Falvey can trade for Bryan Reynolds. He is available for the right combination of players.

[Doctor Gast]

  On 4/11/2022 at 7:29 PM, Cap'n Piranha said:

Correlation, not causation.  What was the FIP and xFIP of the pitching staff in games Buxton played v not?  What pitchers did the Twins offense have to face when Buxton was out?  Were there other players who missed time with injuries or were playing through injuries when Buxton was out?  You can't just say a good CF is the entirety of the reason the Twins win, based on nothing other than a comparison of W/L record.

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In some situations I believe you're right. But with comparison  of Buxton and his subs we have to look at his injuries that are random (they are not based on opponents or who's pitching) and when he needs rest and under those circumstances I'm not resting Buxton against good teams but against inferior teams which furthers support this coorelation of Wins/ Losses between Buxton and his CF subs.

[RpR]

  On 4/11/2022 at 7:23 PM, Doctor Gast said:

My thread addresses the problems with  Kiriloff could be the cold, facing lefties and he needs to shack off some rust so I suggested that he & Celestino) should be sent to AAA to get some ABs. Again I state we can't do that because our options to replace them stinks. That has everything to do with this article.

I'm not against having older rookies that have been raking in the minors to get their feet wet but to depend so much on young rookies especially those that haven't really established themselves in the minors and putting them in a position where we go to the post season depends on them, no way.

P

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Gordon simply does not have the speed to play center field well, which showed plainly when he and Kepler were chasing a ball at the same time.

Celestino, from what I have seen, seems to have the speed and agility to fit well there, and Garlick was much better than Gordon.

In left field, if they have no one with foot speed then get some one with a strong accurate arm; way back in 2013 they had Ryan Doumit playing outfield and catching.

Now he his range was lacking but I remember well one game when he fielded a ball in deep right field and threw a perfect throw to get the runner out at home; the catcher did not have do any thing but lower his glove to get the runner out

The announcer said that was because when catchers play the outfield, their strong quick arms are a huge bonus.

[Squirrel]

  On 4/11/2022 at 5:28 PM, Doctor Gast said:

The problem is FO lack of prioritize the need of true MLB proven CF back-up that always puts us in this Horror story. If I were FO, getting a true MLB proven CF back-up would be the easiest and 1st thing I do.

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This has absolutely nothing to do with Kirilloff's start. Nothing. We have backups to CF in Celestino and Gordon and Kepler, even, if needed. I'm not sure why you keep bringing this up. This isn't the problem. And this isn't what this thread is about. 

Everyone ... the topic is Kirilloff and his start.

[chpettit19]

  On 4/11/2022 at 8:21 PM, RpR said:

Gordon simply does not have the speed to play center field well, which showed plainly when he and Kepler were chasing a ball at the same time.

Celestino, from what I have seen, seems to have the speed and agility to fit well there, and Garlick was much better than Gordon.

In left field, if they have no one with foot speed then get some one with a strong accurate arm; way back in 2013 they had Ryan Doumit playing outfield and catching.

Now he his range was lacking but I remember well one game when he fielded a ball in deep right field and threw a perfect throw to get the runner out at home; the catcher did not have do any thing but lower his glove to get the runner out

The announcer said that was because when catchers play the outfield, their strong quick arms are a huge bonus.

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Nick Gordon in 2021: 71st percentile in sprint speed in MLB.
Max Kepler in 2021: 60th percentile in sprint speed in MLB.
Celestino in 2021: 80th percentile in sprint speed in MLB.
Garlick in 2021: 44th percentile in sprint speed in MLB.

Gordon's problem is not his speed, it's that he'd never played OF before last year. He got bad jumps because it was all new to him. I'm not arguing he's a future gold glover in the OF, but his speed wasn't the problem, and he's significantly better than Kyle Garlick.

[TwinsDr2021]

  On 4/11/2022 at 7:25 PM, Cap'n Piranha said:

This is only logical if you assume rookies are much more likely to start the season cold--I don't ascribe to that thinking.  As you noted, there are several vets who need to "pick it up" (yesterday's game papered over a lot of problems; that tends to happen when dealing with SSS).  To that point--say Kiriloff foes 4-5 with 2 HRs tonight--do we still think he needs to get sent down?

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I don't assume rookies start a season cold, I assume rookies are going to start slow regardless of when they are called up (not all do, but the majority does), so putting a few guys in a lineup that are almost guaranteed to start slow is not a good strategy. I assumed you were not replying to me about him being sent down since I don't think I even inferred that. That is why having Miranda and Larnach in the minors is a better strategy and calling them up when they are hot or forcing the FO hand, then it is hoping they all don't start slow and have to send them down for who?

[nicksaviking]

I'll bet April baseball talk is pretty funny if we go back and look at it later in the year.

I doubt this comes up if a player drops an 0-fer three-game-series in July.

[Linus]

I do wonder why they won’t start Celestino against lefties for a while. 

[TheLeviathan]

  On 4/11/2022 at 8:57 PM, nicksaviking said:

I'll bet April baseball talk is pretty funny if we go back and look at it later in the year.

I doubt this comes up if a player drops an 0-fer three-game-series in July.

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There is absolutely nothing amusing about this claptrap of a thread.  Seriously.

There are people making sane, rational points and there are people who are not.

But in the spirit of this thread.  0-12 calls for Kiriloff to switch to hockey.  Jose Berrios and his infinity ERA should consider cricket.  And we can end the season now for the 162-0 Rays. #makin'somegoodarguments.

[chpettit19]

  On 4/11/2022 at 9:00 PM, Linus said:

I do wonder why they won’t start Celestino against lefties for a while. 

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I believe Andrew Heaney is scheduled to start for the Dodgers tomorrow and I'd think it'd be a good time to get Celestino in there. Not sure if it'll be for Kepler or Kirilloff, but if Kirilloff has another 0-fer today I'd think Rocco would give him a day off to clear his head and let Celestino get those ABs.

[Thegrin]

After watching Kiriloff last year, I became convinced that he will be the most natural left-handed power hitter the Twins have had since Mauer & Morneau.  I ain't worried at all. 

[LA VIkes Fan]

Celestino is the only roster position player who hasn't yet played. I would expect him to get a start against the Dodgers since they are throwing 2 left-handers and probably better to have him start against Heaney than against Kershaw. Winder is the only pitcher that hasn't got in but I expect he is the long man available tonight after Bundy.

Regarding Kirilloff, we all need to remember that this is a young player without much of a track record coming off a major injury. He looked very good in 2021 for about 100 bats, looked very bad for about 100 bats, and then got shut down. He just hasn't looked comfortable at the plate so far. It's not an 0-12 with a few line drive outs, I don't think he squared the ball up yet. So that may mean it just requires some at-bats and some time. My only point is that it might be better to have those at bats and time in AAA IF there is someone to replace him who might give us more competitive at bats. That isn't likely to be Celestino, but maybe if we play him tonight or tomorrow night we will find out. I still would not be surprised to see the Twins sign Justin Upton and potentially lose Jhon Romero or put Stashack on the 60 day IL. 

[Mike Sixel]

The more i think about Upton, the less likely it seems to me......

[Mike Sixel]

  On 4/11/2022 at 9:07 PM, TheLeviathan said:

There is absolutely nothing amusing about this claptrap of a thread.  Seriously.

There are people making sane, rational points and there are people who are not.

But in the spirit of this thread.  0-12 calls for Kiriloff to switch to hockey.  Jose Berrios and his infinity ERA should consider cricket.  And we can end the season now for the 162-0 Rays. #makin'somegoodarguments.

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I mean, the Twins already won the Berrios trade for this year. Dude has lost every game he's started this year......

[a-wan]

Maybe Kirilloff’s TJS repaired elbow is about to fall off and he needs to learn to bat right handed.

[ashbury]

  On 4/11/2022 at 10:12 PM, a-wan said:

Maybe Kirilloff’s TJS repaired elbow is about to fall off and he needs to learn to bat right handed.

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The opposite-handed version:

 

(Not a retouched photo.  Pete Gray of the St Louis Browns was real. Somewhat below average as a hitter.  Do not recommend this approach for Kirilloff except as a last resort.)

[RpR]

  On 4/11/2022 at 8:36 PM, chpettit19 said:

Nick Gordon in 2021: 71st percentile in sprint speed in MLB.
Max Kepler in 2021: 60th percentile in sprint speed in MLB.
Celestino in 2021: 80th percentile in sprint speed in MLB.
Garlick in 2021: 44th percentile in sprint speed in MLB.

Gordon's problem is not his speed, it's that he'd never played OF before last year. He got bad jumps because it was all new to him. I'm not arguing he's a future gold glover in the OF, but his speed wasn't the problem, and he's significantly better than Kyle Garlick.

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When he and Kepler were both going for the same ball, Gordon's slower running speed was obvious unless one is blind in one eye and cannot see out of the other, plus Gordon's lack  perof height is not in his favor.

I checked his numbers in left field at Baseball Ref. and he does NOT belong in left field, period; slow foot Larnach has better range and numbers that Gordon does.

Short Stop is the only place he has good numbers and he will not be playing there often.

[Cap'n Piranha]

  On 4/11/2022 at 8:11 PM, Doctor Gast said:

In some situations I believe you're right. But with comparison  of Buxton and his subs we have to look at his injuries that are random (they are not based on opponents or who's pitching) and when he needs rest and under those circumstances I'm not resting Buxton against good teams but against inferior teams which furthers support this coorelation of Wins/ Losses between Buxton and his CF subs.

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The Twins are 215-169 (56% winning percentage, 91 win pace) when Jake Odorizzi is on a Falvine team.  They are 159-168 (48.6% winning percentage, 79 win pace) when Jake Odorizzi is not on a Falvine team.  Is Jake Odorizzi the key to the Twins being good?

[Cap'n Piranha]

  On 4/11/2022 at 8:38 PM, TwinsDr2021 said:

I don't assume rookies start a season cold, I assume rookies are going to start slow regardless of when they are called up (not all do, but the majority does), so putting a few guys in a lineup that are almost guaranteed to start slow is not a good strategy. I assumed you were not replying to me about him being sent down since I don't think I even inferred that. That is why having Miranda and Larnach in the minors is a better strategy and calling them up when they are hot or forcing the FO hand, then it is hoping they all don't start slow and have to send them down for who?

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Do you have any data around rookies more often starting slow than fast?  You're saying almost guaranteed, which to me suggests you think a rookie is going to start slow something like 80-90% of the time--is that supported, or is that simply a supposition on your part?

No, you didn't suggest sending him down; that part of my response was designed to show the danger in calling the first 3 games a "slow start".  If AK's games 4 and 5 are identical to Buxton's games 2 and 3 from an offensive standpoint, we're (meaning everyone on this thread) not having this convo.

Miranda is in the minors because it's clear he would not play every day in MLB (Urshela and Arraez both need time at 3B); same with Larnach (Kiriloff and Sano need time at LF and 1B).  If Kiriloff or Sano gets hurt, I would not be surprised if Larnach gets the call (unless he's still scuffling).  With Miranda, it might take even more, as right now he's 6th on the infield depth chart (Correa, Polanco, Arraez, Urshela, Gordon), so it might take 2 out of those 5 getting hurt/struggling/being moved to the outfield for him to come up.

[Cap'n Piranha]

  On 4/11/2022 at 8:57 PM, nicksaviking said:

I'll bet April baseball talk is pretty funny if we go back and look at it later in the year.

I doubt this comes up if a player drops an 0-fer three-game-series in July.

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[Cap'n Piranha]

  On 4/11/2022 at 9:00 PM, Linus said:

I do wonder why they won’t start Celestino against lefties for a while. 

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Because he had a -3 wRC+ against lefties last year (59 against righties)--even in MiLB last year, he had a .744 OPS against lefties v .715 against righties.  It is not some hard-written rule of the Universe that all righties are successful against lefties, and all lefties are unsuccessful against lefties.  To wit, Kepler had a 40 wRC+ against lefties last year, and Kiriloff was 94.

[Cap'n Piranha]

  On 4/11/2022 at 10:03 PM, Mike Sixel said:

I mean, the Twins already won the Berrios trade for this year. Dude has lost every game he's started this year......

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Berrios has a 54 bb/9 rate (not 5.4--54).  He has a 100% HR/FB rate, and things could have been worse, because he actually has a 43.5% LOB rate.

All of that is to say, clearly the Jays should be trying to send him to AAA to get some innings.

[PseudoSABR]

  On 4/11/2022 at 10:43 PM, RpR said:

When he and Kepler were both going for the same ball, Gordon's slower running speed was obvious unless one is blind in one eye and cannot see out of the other, plus Gordon's lack  perof height is not in his favor.

I checked his numbers in left field at Baseball Ref. and he does NOT belong in left field, period; slow foot Larnach has better range and numbers that Gordon does.

Short Stop is the only place he has good numbers and he will not be playing there often.

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Why would teams buy radar guns when they can just ask you to take a look?

[RpR]

  On 4/11/2022 at 11:03 PM, PseudoSABR said:

Why would teams buy radar guns when they can just ask you to take a look?

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Gee, what do you think carries more weight to managers, what they see, or what an electronic gizmo said at one time some where.

No wait, Keplers 6-4 height stride slows him down because any one knows Gordon's 6-0 height shorter stride legs are move faster.?

[PseudoSABR]

  On 4/11/2022 at 11:13 PM, RpR said:

Gee, what do you think carries more weight to managers, what they see, or what an electronic gizmo said at one time some where.

No wait, Keplers 6-4 height stride slows him down because any one knows Gordon's 6-0 height shorter stride legs are move faster.?

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All those scouts with their guns, when they can just use their EYES. The cops should probably just get rid of their fancy gizmos, and go with the eyetest in court.  "Your honor, he was speeding, I can tell because I managed little league."

[Squirrel]

  On 4/11/2022 at 11:13 PM, RpR said:

Gee, what do you think carries more weight to managers, what they see, or what an electronic gizmo said at one time some where.

No wait, Keplers 6-4 height stride slows him down because any one knows Gordon's 6-0 height shorter stride legs are move faster.?

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Stop it. You are crossing the line into trolling.