Assessing the Twins Trade for Chris Paddack

[GKuehl]

37 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Are we looking at the same records?  Here's b-r.com's game log for Pagan:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=paganem01&t=p&year=2021

He had an ERA of 2.77 on June 14, but that's a long way way from his final 10.1 innings, which began after the game on Aug 24 where his ERA was 3.23.

This all is splitting hairs but since you pushed back I want to understand.

I was trusting this article: https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/sports-columnists/story/2022-03-26/padres-reliever-emilio-pagan-home-runs-manager-bob-melvin

 

Guess your research was better than mine!

[Game7-91]

25 minutes ago, PatPfund said:

And I'm sure most of us would be happier if Rogers and Rooker had gone to the Dodgers for Walker Buehler.

Yes , but Buehler has a record, getting busted taking a non-permissive day off at Wrigley. Never should have caught that foul. Somebody like that a couple of low A suspects should get it done.

[dex8425]

19 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

 

While I dont want to be a hypocrit by doing something I always state can't be done fairly, with everything that has taken place, I just can't help look back and wonder why we didn't just keep homegrown and super reliable Berrios for 7yrs and then trade for Gray. Wouldn't that be a better 1-2 punch? 

 

No way the Twins were going to go 7 years on Berrios. That's why he was traded. I do wish the Twins had signed Rodon for what SF gave him, or even Greinke on the Royals' salary. 

[twins_89]

It will be interesting to see how the first couple of times through the rotation plays out. I'm somewhat expecting Ryan, Ober, Gray, Bundy, Archer, Paddack, and Winder to each throw 4-5 innings a couple of times. My hope is that when the roster size goes back down, the team settles on the 5 guys who have pitched the best and don't give Bundy/Archer a starter slot by default.

[Brandon]

11 minutes ago, twins_89 said:

It will be interesting to see how the first couple of times through the rotation plays out. I'm somewhat expecting Ryan, Ober, Gray, Bundy, Archer, Paddack, and Winder to each throw 4-5 innings a couple of times. My hope is that when the roster size goes back down, the team settles on the 5 guys who have pitched the best and don't give Bundy/Archer a starter slot by default.

Exactly This!

[laloesch]

2 hours ago, Harrison Greeley III said:

Let's not forget Josh Donaldson, the biggest foreign substance whistleblower, is out of the clubhouse too. If the Twins pitching staff bounces back and the Yankees pitching declines in 2022.... well that'd be a fun coincidence. 

I doubt it.

[laloesch]

3 hours ago, ashbury said:

I'll summarize my 3 concerns in assessing the trade:

1) Paddack has a low-grade tear of his UCL.  Hope the Twins scrutinized the medicals.

2) Pagan has benefited his entire career from home parks that skew strongly toward the pitcher.

3) The union's rep and the assistant rep (Rogers and Garver) both are gone via trade, post-lockout.  Things that make you go hmmmm.

the low-grade tear of his UCL and the dip in his performance the last couple of seasons is a big red flag in my opinion.  I don't know about the whole Union rep thing but hey whatever, it's not like these guys are making 10 bucks an hour and are fighting for .25 cent increases. 

[nicksaviking]

3 hours ago, ashbury said:

3) The union's rep and the assistant rep (Rogers and Garver) both are gone via trade, post-lockout.  Things that make you go hmmmm.

They were also two of the team's oldest healthy players, with Thielbar the only one older. Would seem to me the most logical correlation is that the Twins are  in position to move the older players.

I don't think they deal with Scott Boras on Buxton AND Correa deals if they're union bustin'.

[laloesch]

17 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

They were also two of the team's oldest healthy players, with Thielbar the only one older. Would seem to me the most logical correlation is that the Twins are  in position to move the older players.

I don't think they deal with Scott Boras on Buxton AND Correa deals if they're union bustin'.

My thoughts exactly.  I mean the Correa deal is evidence enough.  I mean sheesh they just signed the guy to a 105.3 million dollar deal!  That's not exactly small potatoes. 

[Fritzderkat]

In the 22 years I have followed the Twins, the pitching staff, more often than not, is an annual mystery.

[Unwinder]

I notice that the Twins now have Ober as one of four players featured on their Twitter banner. (alongside Buxton, Correa, and Sano). I'm not sure if that means they see him as one of the franchise's biggest rising stars (thus unlikely to be relegated to a relieving role), or if they just put him on there because they figured he was one of the least likely players to get traded, saving them the trouble of creating a new banner.

It's also highly possible that they pretty much let the graphic design/social media teams do whatever they want, and it means nothing.

[farmerguychris]

3 hours ago, Unwinder said:

Looking at comments on some Padres sites, it looks like they're more negative on this trade than we are over here, so I guess by that metric we've come out on top.

I love looking at other team's sites during trades like this also.  To me this trade seems like both teams can potentially claim a W depending on how the next couple years shake out.

[jorgenswest]

The Twins probably win this deal over the three years. Under control starting pitching comes at a premium and the cost of one year of Rogers and a limited corner OF prospect already 27 is often not enough.

However they have invested in one year of an elite shortstop. Shouldn’t they do the opposite and go all in for 2022? I would. This move is not an all in move. Overpaying for Montas is all in. Sending prospects for one year of Bassitt or Manaea is all in.

I would not have extended Rogers into his decline phase. The 2023 year is better with Passaic. Moving Correa at the deadline adds to the 2023 outlook.

Acknowledging all of that I still would have gone all in while I had Correa. That didn’t happen. The outlook for 2022 is not as hopeful as it was yesterday. I  am disappointed.

 

[Riverbrian]

24 minutes ago, Unwinder said:

I notice that the Twins now have Ober as one of four players featured on their Twitter banner. (alongside Buxton, Correa, and Sano). I'm not sure if that means they see him as one of the franchise's biggest rising stars (thus unlikely to be relegated to a relieving role), or if they just put him on there because they figured he was one of the least likely players to get traded, saving them the trouble of creating a new banner.

It's also highly possible that they pretty much let the graphic design/social media teams do whatever they want, and it means nothing.

It was Photobombing I'm sure

[glunn]

The Twins threw in $6.6 million?

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/minnesota-twins

 

[glunn]

Maybe the Twins could now trade Paddack plus something more to the A's for Montas?

[Swaggy21]

I love that we got rid of Rooker. However, I don't see how parting with Rodgers is a good idea. Especially when our bullpen needs just as much help as our rotation. In my mind it is like trading sonny gray for a meh reliever. i don't think it is the worst thing ever but it isn't my favorite transaction of the off season.

[Dman]

So with PTBNL is that ultimately decided by how the players do for their respective teams.  If Rogers is lights out and Paddack stinks do they get a better guy.  Or if Rogers sucks and Paddack performs well do they get a lesser guy?  Is that how these deals work?  Asking for a friend.

[Unwinder]

7 minutes ago, Dman said:

So with PTBNL is that ultimately decided by how the players do for their respective teams.  If Rogers is lights out and Paddack stinks do they get a better guy.  Or if Rogers sucks and Paddack performs well do they get a lesser guy?  Is that how these deals work?  Asking for a friend.

I looked it up earlier because I was curious too, the Twins have presumably already picked out a list of players they might be interested in, and the Padres have already approved all the names on that list. When the Twins want to cash in (generally after the season at hand) they can choose any of the players on the list. Teams choose to trade for a PTBNL when they don't have an immediate need that the other team can fill, and want to wait and see what they end up needing later.

[se7799]

3 hours ago, ashbury said:

Well, not quite sub-3, but in the low 3's.  That's exactly what I want, a player who wilts just as the playoff season approaches!

Or we could have had Rogers that more than wilted.  He went to th IR.  How many playoff wins has Rogers been evolved in again?

[Dman]

1 minute ago, Unwinder said:

I looked it up earlier because I was curious too, the Twins have presumably already picked out a list of players they might be interested in, and the Padres have already approved all the names on that list. When the Twins want to cash in (generally after the season at hand) they can choose any of the players on the list. Teams choose to trade for a PTBNL when they don't have an immediate need that the other team can fill, and want to wait and see what they end up needing later.

Thank you that makes sense!!  They get to watch the players they agreed to and then they grab the one that looks most likely to make it or fits best.  I knew there had to be something to it, just couldn't figure out why a team would wait for a player.  So since PTBNL are not a named player I assume it is most likely a C prospect type throw in.

[se7799]

4 hours ago, ashbury said:

I'll summarize my 3 concerns in assessing the trade:

1) Paddack has a low-grade tear of his UCL.  Hope the Twins scrutinized the medicals.

2) Pagan has benefited his entire career from home parks that skew strongly toward the pitcher.

3) The union's rep and the assistant rep (Rogers and Garver) both are gone via trade, post-lockout.  Things that make you go hmmmm.

1. I'm sure the Twins have scrutinized his medical.  Let's not forget Rogers injury seamed worse as he did shut it down.

2. Pagan also benefits from good coaching.

3.Both of these players were aging and hurt last year.  A new union rep and assistant rep will be appointed and do there respective jobs as well as the previous ones.

[USAFChief]

30 minutes ago, Dman said:

Thank you that makes sense!!  They get to watch the players they agreed to and then they grab the one that looks most likely to make it or fits best.  I knew there had to be something to it, just couldn't figure out why a team would wait for a player.  So since PTBNL are not a named player I assume it is most likely a C prospect type throw in.

Sometimes it also works like this: the Twins trade Dave Hollins to the Mariners for David Arias, who later becomes David Ortiz.

 

He was...wait for it...a player...to be named later.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/on-this-date-20-years-ago-david-ortiz-was-a-player-to-be-named-later-in-a-trade/amp/

[East Coast Twin]

5 hours ago, yeahyabetcha said:

Or it could mean that they wanted to trade Rogers because he was in the last year of his contract and they probably were not going to resign him.

And that they felt that Garver was going to have to get moved from catcher to stay healthy.

And they were able to get pieces in return that they liked.

 

It also just means that two other players will become the union rep and assistant rep.  Nothing will change in that respect.

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, Unwinder said:

I notice that the Twins now have Ober as one of four players featured on their Twitter banner. (alongside Buxton, Correa, and Sano). I'm not sure if that means they see him as one of the franchise's biggest rising stars (thus unlikely to be relegated to a relieving role), or if they just put him on there because they figured he was one of the least likely players to get traded, saving them the trouble of creating a new banner.

It's also highly possible that they pretty much let the graphic design/social media teams do whatever they want, and it means nothing.

If they’re paying for those banners by the letter, Ober is the obvious choice.

[USAFChief]

48 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

If they’re paying for those banners by the letter, Ober is the obvious choice.

They took the Ober? I'd have bet the Under.

[ashbury]

3 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

They were also two of the team's oldest healthy players, with Thielbar the only one older. Would seem to me the most logical correlation is that the Twins are  in position to move the older players.

I don't think they deal with Scott Boras on Buxton AND Correa deals if they're union bustin'.

Oh, for sure, and I kept the mention brief, because I really didn't want to derail the thread with this tangent but still felt it was at least an angle that hadn't been mentioned.

Without any data on hand to back it up, I'll guess that most union reps are relatively senior players and thus the type who teams might consider dealing away.

It's more the timing than anything.   And indeed, Boras would be someone I'd love to ask the awkward question to, and get reassured that if anyone would be on the lookout for red flags, it would be him, and he saw nothing in the timing that bothered him.

It honestly and for truly was just an observation.  One of those co-winky-dinkies.

[mikelink45]

Okay - the only thing I can say is -I don't like it.  We know what Rogers is and we need it.  We don't know what Paddock will be and I am not sure we need it. 

[PseudoSABR]

2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

The Twins probably win this deal over the three years. Under control starting pitching comes at a premium and the cost of one year of Rogers and a limited corner OF prospect already 27 is often not enough.

However they have invested in one year of an elite shortstop. Shouldn’t they do the opposite and go all in for 2022? I would. This move is not an all in move. Overpaying for Montas is all in. Sending prospects for one year of Bassitt or Manaea is all in.

I would not have extended Rogers into his decline phase. The 2023 year is better with Passaic. Moving Correa at the deadline adds to the 2023 outlook.

Acknowledging all of that I still would have gone all in while I had Correa. That didn’t happen. The outlook for 2022 is not as hopeful as it was yesterday. I  am disappointed.

 

I'd argue that the distance between Rogers and Pagan is more narrow than Paddack and the Twins 6th best starting pitcher.  In that sense this is as much about 2022, as it is about maximizing control and assets.  Clearly the Twins believe in their pitching pipeline; and even if that doesn't bare fruit early this season, they can add to the bullpen at he deadline.  The Twins are competing this season, but, as they should, maximize assets, even at short term risk.

[DocBauer]

3 hours ago, dex8425 said:

No way the Twins were going to go 7 years on Berrios. That's why he was traded. I do wish the Twins had signed Rodon for what SF gave him, or even Greinke on the Royals' salary. 

And I'm not going to disagree with you. And I can certainly understand our FO not wanting to make a 7yr commitment to a SP. There is a sound logic behind their reasoning. But they were willing to go 7yrs for Buxton, for a lower yearly guarantee, but more per if and as he hits incentives. Now, a healthy Buxton is amongst to top 5% of players in all of MLB to be sure. But if there was ever a time to make an extended deal with a SP, Berrios should have been that arm. He was only 27yo at the time of the trade, a model of consistency and health and work ethic. And he has remaining upside yet. I think a strong argument could be made he ranks in the top 25% of SP in MLB when you take all of that in to account. I know opinions vary. 

And I'm not trying to hijack the thread by any means, but I think the context of my thoughts do address this trade and the need for it.

To take it a step further, even with the Berrios trade done and over, we needed SP, and there was money available for 2022, even with Donaldson on the books still. And I understand the FO was locked in on a Buxton extension last fall. But there was opportunity and finances available to make a solid, quality signing for 3-4yrs for a FA SP that wasn't necessarily a TOP FA that was as good as Paddack might be. And they could have/should have been able to multi-task the Buxton negotiations AND still jump on opportunity to add an arm before the lockout where we wouldn't have to have made this trade to begin with to add to the rotation at this point. And again, I hate using revisionist thinking, but this was all in play before the lockout, when the "hot stove" even began. So it's not just 20/20 hindsight viewing.

I just think it behooves us to fully examine WHY this trade was necessary when there was real opportunity a couple months ago. And I'm NOT trying to be a downer about what we gained, and the potential of what we gained, or be a downer on the Eve of opening day, but I think a thorough examination of where we are and how we got there is more than fair for us as fans.

I have largely been a big supporter of our FO for everything they've done on and off the field. But as much as I support them, like them, understand moves that have and have not worked out, I've always tried to be honest and fair in my evaluation of them. That being said, their offseason has turned out OK. But I re-state I think the FO have handled this offseason haphazardly, seemingly uncertain what direction they were going to take, and I'm optimistic this is a pretty good team with some potential, especially if a few things break right. But I do think they've missed some opportunities early that could have made this offseason even better.