Assessing the Twins Trade for Chris Paddack

[Ted Schwerzler]

While Opening Day was bearing down on the Minnesota Twins, weather delayed things just a bit. With the schedule now set to open on Friday, the front office continued working as they acquired Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagan from the Padres in exchange for closer Taylor Rogers and Brent Rooker. What does that do to the roster?

First and foremost, the first guy Minnesota gave up was a pillar in the clubhouse for the Twins. If there’s a way for this to go pear-shaped, it’s in disrupting chemistry we’ve heard talked about so highly coming into the season. Rogers was the Twins MLBPA player rep and worked with the owners through the lockout. He handled the media well and was extremely well-liked by his peers.

Through a baseball lens, Rogers is 31-years-old and coming off a finger injury that limited him to just 40 1/3 innings last season. He was sure to be traded at the deadline, but that came off the table when he hit the Injured List. Appearing in his first All-Star game, a neat experience in his home state of Colorado, Rogers posted a 3.35 ERA with a 13.2 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9. When healthy, he’s been among the best closers in baseball the past few seasons, and his 2.52 FIP tells the tale there.

Somewhat of a footnote in this deal, Rooker goes to the Padres after being beaten out by Kyle Garlick for the final outfield spot. He shined in seven games for Minnesota during 2020, but the .688 OPS last season simply wasn’t going to play. When he was drafted 35th overall back in 2017, it was immediately known he would be a bat-only player. San Diego will put him in a corner outfield spot, but he’s incredibly stretched there. Although the power certainly plays, there’s a lot of swing and miss in his game as well. A fresh start could prove beneficial for him.

Dealing Rogers the day before Minnesota takes the field may be risky, but the return absolutely justifies a move.
 
Chris Paddack comes to Minnesota as a former darling rookie. He posted a 3.33 ERA across 26 games for the Padres in 2019. He averages 94 mph on his fastball, and outside of 2020, he’s posted strong FIP numbers. The 5.07 ERA in 2021 wasn’t pretty, but the peripherals suggest there’s more to unlock. Although his strikeout numbers have fallen a bit the past three seasons, he’s also lowered his walk and home run rates. There’s swing-and-miss stuff to be exploited here, and pitching coach Wes Johnson will immediately get to work on pushing those tweaks.

Paddack is under team control through the 2024 season from a contractual standpoint. This alone may be the most significant boost for Minnesota. At just 26-years-old, the Twins can mold Paddack throughout the next three seasons and hope to push his stuff towards the top-end of their rotation. He would join Kenta Maeda, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober as arms already locked in for next season. Making just $2.25 million through arbitration this year, Paddack’s expense is minimal.
 
Joining Paddack and adding back into the Twins pen is Emilio Pagan, who will be with his fifth team in six big league seasons. Last year, his 63 1/3 innings with San Diego was nearly career-high, but it came with a career-worst 2.3 HR/9 and a 4.83 ERA. Pagan’s 5.22 FIP suggests he was actually worse than the surface numbers, but just two seasons ago, the Tampa Bay Rays had him looking like one of the best pen arms in the game. Under team control next season, Minnesota can opt to keep him around for another year.

The addition of Paddack obviously shuffles the rotation. As it was currently constructed, Ryan was set to be followed by Sonny Gray, Bailey Ober, Dylan Bundy, and Chris Archer. Paddack will need to slot in somewhere, and the most likely candidate to be bumped in my mind is Ober. He could go to a long relief role out of the bullpen until the point in which a starter begins to struggle. Bundy may be the lowest ceiling talent of the group, but given he was signed as a starter for $5 million early in the offseason, I’m not sure he’s the guy that would get moved around.
 
A ripple effect of this situation is what happens with Josh Winder. He looks to have made the big league roster but was already going to be pitching out of the bullpen in a long relief role. Now with Ober in that mix, too, there are a lot of innings needed to keep starting arms fresh, and the hope is that there’s only so many to go around.

Obviously, Pagan will slot in somewhere during the middle innings. He’s not a back-end option for Minnesota at this point. Replacing Rogers will be some combination of Tyler Duffey, Jorge Alcala, and Jhoan Duran. With Duran’s stuff playing so well this spring, it seemed sensible to use him immediately in relief rather than continuing to develop him as a starter. He now may be the frontrunner for the closer role if Rocco Baldelli and Johnson opt to keep Duffey and Alcala in their previously established late-inning spots. It would be a big ask for the young prospect, but the reality here is that Minnesota appears intent on developing their pen arms and not paying handsomely in relief. That’s certainly a viable strategy when you’ve seemingly made it work with a handful of guys.
 
When viewing this from the top, the Twins now pay less for three years of a starter with upside and a reliever who has been very good than they did for a closer coming off an injury and slated for free agency with a bat tossed in. It’s hard not to see this as a win for Minnesota, and while the volatility of relief arms remains immense, betting on the horses you have is definitely not a bad stance.
 
Time to play ball.

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[ashbury]

I'll summarize my 3 concerns in assessing the trade:

1) Paddack has a low-grade tear of his UCL.  Hope the Twins scrutinized the medicals.

2) Pagan has benefited his entire career from home parks that skew strongly toward the pitcher.

3) The union's rep and the assistant rep (Rogers and Garver) both are gone via trade, post-lockout.  Things that make you go hmmmm.

[farmerguychris]

Its a smart long term move.  Sorry to see Rogers go, but he had a much better run as a dependable reliever than most as a Twin.  Good luck to him.

[USAFChief]

5 minutes ago, ashbury said:

 The union's rep and the assistant rep (Rogers and Garver) both are gone via trade, post-lockout.  Things that make you go hmmmm.

I had the same thought.

[yeahyabetcha]

1 minute ago, USAFChief said:

I had the same thought.

Or it could mean that they wanted to trade Rogers because he was in the last year of his contract and they probably were not going to resign him.

And that they felt that Garver was going to have to get moved from catcher to stay healthy.

And they were able to get pieces in return that they liked.

 

[Game7-91]

Not sure how Ober's development is served moving to BP if that is what will happen. He earned a shot to further establish himself in mid-rotation. I would not be slotting Paddack ahead of Ober. Paddack now joins Bundy and Archer in line, and hopefully none of those three prove detrimental to developing the Winders/Balz's et al.

[LewFordLives]

Bumping Ober to the pen would be the wrong move, mainly because Ober is a better pitcher than Paddack. Archer is not stretched out, so I'm guessing someone will be splitting innings with him for the first few weeks. I would put Paddack in the pen until the situation works itself out.

[Harrison Greeley III]

28 minutes ago, ashbury said:

3) The union's rep and the assistant rep (Rogers and Garver) both are gone via trade, post-lockout.  Things that make you go hmmmm.

Let's not forget Josh Donaldson, the biggest foreign substance whistleblower, is out of the clubhouse too. If the Twins pitching staff bounces back and the Yankees pitching declines in 2022.... well that'd be a fun coincidence. 

[tony&rodney]

Wait. Ober moves to the pen? He was clearly their best starting pitcher to finish the year. He also looked as good as anyone else in Spring Training. 

[jimmyc]

9 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

Bumping Ober to the pen would be the wrong move, mainly because Ober is a better pitcher than Paddack. Archer is not stretched out, so I'm guessing someone will be splitting innings with him for the first few weeks. I would put Paddack in the pen until the situation works itself out.

Paddack is not going to the pen.

[GKuehl]

8 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

Bumping Ober to the pen would be the wrong move, mainly because Ober is a better pitcher than Paddack. Archer is not stretched out, so I'm guessing someone will be splitting innings with him for the first few weeks. I would put Paddack in the pen until the situation works itself out.

We didn't just give up Rogers to slot Paddack into the pen. Paddack has legit stuff -- just a few years ago he looked like the next ace starting pitcher. His stuff hasn't declined, so there's no reason to think he couldn't be our 2nd best starter this year behind Sonny Gray. I would move Bundy to the pen. Whether or not he wants to move to the pen is irrelevant; he's under contract so do what's best for the ballclub, not what's best for Bundy. Why not start Archer, let him go 3-4 innings, and then let Bundy follow him up for 3 innings? It would be a bad move to demote Ober to the bullpen when he looks like a longterm #4 starter, especially when he'll be back in the rotation in a few weeks once one of the other starters gets tired or underperforms (looking at you Mr. Bundy).

I like this move for us -- 3 seasons of a controllable starting pitcher with big upside. If Ryan, Ober, Winder, Balazovic, Canterino, SWR, etc. show that they are ready later this season or next, Paddack could always be dealt to another team in need of starting pitching. We also get a freebie bullpen piece who looked good last season outside of his final 10 innings of the year. Pagan had a sub-3.00 ERA prior to the his final 10 innings last year, and if we can just limit his home runs, he could be a quality middle reliever. 

B+ move for the squad, even though I hate to see Rogers go. 

[Sean.h]

Horrible move. 

1. Who gets bumped from the rotation? I think Ryan and Ober have earned the opportunity to at least start in the rotation.

2. Losing the best reliever in an already weak bullpen, how does this help us this year (potentially the only year with Correa)?

[Mike Sixel]

The more I think about it....

They likely tried to do this trade last year, or similar, but Rogers got hurt. There was no way they were signing him if he was good this year, they just don't sign pitchers to expensive deals here. They dealt a very good RP with one year of control, and a corner bat that was stretched to play in the field.

They got a former top prospect, who is only months older than Winder and others....and a flyer (imo) RP in return. They (I think) get a PTBNL also? 

Paddack is the number 4 starter on this roster (who might be the second best pitcher, or might fall off), with Archer / Bundy / Ober / Winder piggy backing, I'd guess. It is possible that Winder goes down, and Ober or / Bundy is viewed as a regular starter, but that's not what I'd do.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, GKuehl said:

We also get a freebie bullpen piece who looked good last season outside of his final 10 innings of the year. Pagan had a sub-3.00 ERA prior to the his final 10 innings last year, and if we can just limit his home runs, he could be a quality middle reliever.

Well, not quite sub-3, but in the low 3's.  That's exactly what I want, a player who wilts just as the playoff season approaches!

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, Sean.h said:

Horrible move. 

1. Who gets bumped from the rotation? I think Ryan and Ober have earned the opportunity to at least start in the rotation.

2. Losing the best reliever in an already weak bullpen, how does this help us this year (potentially the only year with Correa)?

It wasn't an already weak bullpen. After June of last year, it was a top 10-12 bullpen, and that was without Rogers the last two months.

[Unwinder]

Looking at comments on some Padres sites, it looks like they're more negative on this trade than we are over here, so I guess by that metric we've come out on top.

[Sean.h]

6 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

It wasn't an already weak bullpen. After June of last year, it was a top 10-12 bullpen, and that was without Rogers the last two months.

I think we have different standards here. I thought the win-now moves that the FO pursued this year (signing Correa and trading for Gray) would be consistent with trying to build a championship contending team. Subtracting from an average (at best) bullpen doesn't cut it for me, especially when the move doesn't necessarily make the rotation better.

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, Sean.h said:

I think we have different standards here. I thought the win-now moves that the FO pursued this year (signing Correa and trading for Gray) would be consistent with trying to build a championship contending team. Subtracting from an average (at best) bullpen doesn't cut it for me, especially when the move doesn't necessarily make the rotation better.

Those are two different statements.......you first said it was a weak bullpen. Now it is average....

Nothing about this roster, imo, screamed championship. I hope to be wrong.

[baul0010]

37 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Wait. Ober moves to the pen? He was clearly their best starting pitcher to finish the year. He also looked as good as anyone else in Spring Training. 

Yep.   Any pen related moves better include Archer or Bundy.  They have no role with the Twins past 2022.

[PatPfund]

I'm pretty sure we didn't go from "OMG, need another SP!" to "there is no place for a new SP to pitch on this team" in the last week. No starter is fully stretched out yet; Gray has only faced MLB hitters once (though he did mow them down like grass). Given the 16 slots available, it seems like the Twins could easily structure a rotation with a starter (4 innings or X pitches), and a follow-up "middler" (3 innings or X pitches) much like they'd do in spring training. The actual name 'starter' wouldn't really matter the first couple times through, and by then results could dictate the 'final' starting five. ('Final' of course meaning until injury/bad-pitching brought change. So maybe as soon as a week from now.)

[GKuehl]

28 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Well, not quite sub-3, but in the low 3's.  That's exactly what a want, a player who wilts just as the playoff season approaches!

 Pagan had a 2.77 ERA until his final 10 1/3 innings last year. 

[Sean.h]

3 minutes ago, PatPfund said:

I'm pretty sure we didn't go from "OMG, need another SP!" to "there is no place for a new SP to pitch on this team" in the last week. No starter is fully stretched out yet; Gray has only faced MLB hitters once (though he did mow them down like grass). Given the 16 slots available, it seems like the Twins could easily structure a rotation with a starter (4 innings or X pitches), and a follow-up "middler" (3 innings or X pitches) much like they'd do in spring training. The actual name 'starter' wouldn't really matter the first couple times through, and by then results could dictate the 'final' starting five. ('Final' of course meaning until injury/bad-pitching brought change. So maybe as soon as a week from now.)

I'm pretty sure most of us that wanted to bolster the rotation, we were thinking about adding high-end talent (think Montas, Manaea, etc), not mid-rotation types. Especially not by subtracting from areas of weakness. This trade makes very little sense, once you take into account other big moves the Twins made this year (but is consistent with Bundy/Archer/Smith pickups)

[Trov]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

I'll summarize my 3 concerns in assessing the trade:

1) Paddack has a low-grade tear of his UCL.  Hope the Twins scrutinized the medicals.

2) Pagan has benefited his entire career from home parks that skew strongly toward the pitcher.

3) The union's rep and the assistant rep (Rogers and Garver) both are gone via trade, post-lockout.  Things that make you go hmmmm.

Agree with concern 1, if that UCL fully tears that is 2 lost years.  For number 2, I would not say the splits are that bad of home road in his career to say he benefited from home parks.  His splits difference is 19 more innings at home with only a few more earned runs on road.  So did it play some over his career yes, but keep in mind his best season many of his road games would have been in hitter friendly parks too, that being NY and Boston. That year his numbers were actually better on the road.  Meaning, I do not see the splits as a home park thing.  In terms of number 3, I think you are reaching as both were on the trading block last year before the lockout. 

[Dantes929]

I haven't been following so closely but quickly looking at the last several spring training games I haven't seen any of our starters throwing more than 4 innings.    Are any of these guys stretched out to go 6 innings even on a good day?    I am hoping Ober and Archer are replaced by Winder and Paddock soon but before that happens I definitely think we need more than one long reliever for the next couple weeks.   

[LA VIkes Fan]

I don't see any chance that Ober is going into the bullpen anytime soon. I don't think we have a single starter stretched out to go more than 5 innings, if that. I think we will simply have a 6 man rotation through May as we work through the starters, assuming Archer is stretched to enough to start games. If not, he's the bullpen piece.

Ober was brought up from the Minors to be a starter and was very effective in that role with room to grow. Moving Ober to the bullpen would frankly be just be poor roster management. There is no magic to 5 starters, the rules actually allow you to have any size rotation you want. Ober is a picture this team wants to have as a starter for the foreseeable future so that's where he's going to be this year unless he is ineffective. I think  we will run a 6 man rotation for the 1st month while we are carrying 16 pitchers and then, and only then, will we be making some changes or thinking about moving anyone to the bullpen from these top 6. 

 

[ashbury]

34 minutes ago, GKuehl said:

 Pagan had a 2.77 ERA until his final 10 1/3 innings last year. 

Are we looking at the same records?  Here's b-r.com's game log for Pagan:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=paganem01&t=p&year=2021

He had an ERA of 2.77 on June 14, but that's a long way way from his final 10.1 innings, which began after the game on Aug 24 where his ERA was 3.23.

This all is splitting hairs but since you pushed back I want to understand.

[PatPfund]

34 minutes ago, Sean.h said:

I'm pretty sure most of us that wanted to bolster the rotation, we were thinking about adding high-end talent (think Montas, Manaea, etc), not mid-rotation types. Especially not by subtracting from areas of weakness. This trade makes very little sense, once you take into account other big moves the Twins made this year (but is consistent with Bundy/Archer/Smith pickups)

And I'm sure most of us would be happier if Rogers and Rooker had gone to the Dodgers for Walker Buehler. But that's not how it always works, especially for a mid-market team. It sounds like the fans were always higher on Manaea than the Twins; it's a stretch referring to him as "high-end" (though compared to the Twins staff last year...), and he is an FA after the year. Montas is higher end for sure, and since the A's haven't been able to deal him (to the Twins or the rest of MLB), they probably are asking too much. Sometimes you have to roll with what you can get, and since this is baseball, you can often win with that. Or not win it all after getting one of the best pitchers in baseball (like the Yankees who haven't even won their division with Gerrit Cole). At any rate, the die is cast.

[PopRiveter]

No sir. I don't support dumping team leaders the day before opener. I just can't care about a team without some holdovers and continuity and this is a bit of a chump move to pull on Rogers if you ask me.

Selfishly, I just lost the reliever I cared about the most and I'm substituting a couple names that won't mean anything to me for a year or two.

Just doing a quick bb ref cram- Paddack and Pagan both look like reasonable pieces with potential to contribute. If they'd acquired them a couple weeks ago, I'd probably view this trade very differently.

As it is, it just puts a bad taste in my mouth for opening day. Thanks Falvey/Levine.

[DocBauer]

To be honest, I have very mixed feelings on this trade. And with the dust PROBABLY settled now to begin the season, I'm very confused by the various actions and in-actions of the FO.

As to the trade itself, Paddack is a "C" level SP at best at the moment. But I absolutely understand/agree he could be at "A" if they can figure out what happened to make his FB suddenly so hittable. The change and curve look nice, he's young, under control, inexpensive, has experience, and has already flashed how good he could be. I get it. I'm very, very hopeful.

But while I no longer conform directly to traditionally defined roles in the pen, preferring "firemen" or "high leverage" arms vs the old fashioned, traditional slotting system, I felt thr Twins needed another quality arm to join Rogers and Duffey and Thielbar to seal the back end of the pen. That way, you aren't relying too much on Alcala and Duran and others at the moment. They brought in a good middle man instead, and now the back end of the pen has been weakened. I'm not saying we have crap in the pen or it might not work out, or guys might not step forward, but I already felt we might be 1 arm short and now we may be 2. And I don't know enough about Pagan to even comment, so I will let that go.

While I dont want to be a hypocrit by doing something I always state can't be done fairly, with everything that has taken place, I just can't help look back and wonder why we didn't just keep homegrown and super reliable Berrios for 7yrs and then trade for Gray. Wouldn't that be a better 1-2 punch? 

I'm crazy excited to have Correa over Donaldson, even if it turns out to be 1yr. But even with Donaldson being a bit of a question mark, would the Twins be better today with him and Garver and Rogers and a fill-in SS for 2022?

I'm just asking the question because I'm excited, I like a lot about this team, I love still having a bunch of young kids getting ready to debut, but this while offseason plan feels really haphazard to me and I'm honestly not sure if this team is better from a pure roster construction standpoint.  Keep in mind, I generally like and support our FO most of what they do and have done. This whole offseason has just felt there wasn't any real plan in place. 

Good luck to Rooker. I think this is a new opportunity for him he probably needed.

No way you take a talented young arm like Ober, who has a future here, out of the rotation to make room for a veteran flier.

[Mike Sixel]

Dan Szymborski

4:02

It's weird timing, but I like the Twins side

 

David Laurila

4:03

Twins made a good deal. Padres made a better deal.

 

David Laurila

4:05

Taylor Rodgers is good, and Brent Rooker is going to hit. That said, deal made sense for both teams.