What Twins Over/Unders Are You Taking in 2022?

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins are expected to compete for the American League Central division crown once again in 2022. After the 2021 season wound up being a flop, it was clear the front office went out looking to push the envelope this offseason. Now with the roster set, who’s going to beat the odds?

There’s no denying that the Twins have among the best starting lineups in all of baseball. It’s been a question, and a fair one, if they have enough pitching. While everything on paper suggests that this team will be there at the end, it’s worth wondering which contributors will get them there.
 
Each season sportsbook Bovada puts out over/under numbers for individual performances. While Byron Buxton being a longshot MVP candidate at 30/1 as of April 3rd is a fun one to look at, these numbers are a bit more focused. Here are some of my favorites:

Byron Buxton 26.5 Home Runs (Ted's Take - Under)
Do I think Byron Buxton has a legitimate path to an MVP award? Absolutely. Do I think he’s going to barely miss 30 homers? I’m less sure. Buxton’s numbers in 61 games last season were eye-popping. The 19 homers put him on pace for 50 over a 162 game season. I have always contended Buxton is more of a 20 home run guy than he is 20 stolen bases because the power would often put him at second base or rounding them all, that said, I’m not quite ready to believe he’s in for 27 or more. Prove me wrong.

Carlos Correa .280 Batting Average (Ted's Take - Under)
Batting average isn’t all that useful in today’s game, but this number stuck out to me. Correa is a .277 hitter who has surpassed .280 just once when he batted .315 back in 2017. I absolutely expect Correa to be an impact player with an OPS north of .800 for the Twins, but think it comes more from on-base and slugging percentages as it has over the course of his career. Correa has raked at Target Field, and he’s noted being plenty comfortable there, but the average is one I’m not yet on board with.

Carlos Correa 25.5 Home Runs (Ted's Take - Over)
Remember how comfortable Correa is at Target Field? Sure, he was previously hitting against Twins pitching, but he’s also crushed the AL Central division as a whole. I’d expected the former Astros shortstop to put up big power numbers, and he’s coming off a career-high 26 longballs last season. Back in 2019, Correa blasted 21 dingers for Houston in just 75 games. With the idea of playing for another big payday given his opt-outs, I wouldn’t be shocked if Correa pushes power and enters the MVP discussion.

Gary Sanchez 25.5 Home Runs (Ted's Take - Over) 
I think everyone in Twins Territory is hoping that a change of scenery provides a fresh start for the former Yankees backstop. There was a time Sanchez was among the best power hitters in baseball. He’s just two years removed from a 34 home run campaign, while also being an All-Star, and the removed pressure of New York could help to bring that back. 26 homers is a relatively modest number, and even while routinely being benched last season, Sanchez hit 23 homers in 117 games.

Miguel Sano 31.5 Home Runs (Ted's Take - Over) 
We’ve seen that Sano put in work this offseason shedding 25 pounds, and this could be the final year he’s in a Minnesota uniform. Even with just a .778 OPS last season, Miguel still hit 30 home runs. 32 dingers would be just two shy of the 34 he hit during the Bomba Squad season, and from June 1 on last season Sano brought his OPS back north of .800. Playing for his next contract should be some added motivation, but even an average version of the Twins' first basemen could run into a lot of long balls. Needing 39 homers this season to reach 200 for his career, I wouldn’t bet on Sano coming up short.

Sonny Gray 9.5 Wins (Ted's Take - Over)  
Minnesota’s new de facto staff ace in taking over as a clone of Jose Berrios, Gray hasn’t won more than nine games since 2019. Pitcher wins are a goofy statistic, but I’m dabbling here because this number seems influenced by bad Cincinnati Reds teams. Gray is a good arm, now back by a good lineup. He’s been a double-digit game-winner in five of his nine big league seasons, and that includes when pitching in Yankee Stadium with bad numbers during 2019. Gray will be expected to should the load for Minnesota, and his arm talent is more than enough to do so.

Minnesota Twins 81.5 Wins (Ted's Take - Over)
While there's no denying this Twins club could use more starting pitching, every projection system has them in the mid-80's for a win total as currently constructed. There may be an opportunity to add as the season goes on, and the lineup should certainly be a force to be reckoned with. The roster looks the part of a fringe postseason team, and getting there is going to take at least 85 wins.

Now it's your turn. Regarding these six Over/Unders, do you agree or disagree? Leave your predictions below. 

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[cHawk]

I think if Buxton is able to stay healthy (as in play even 100-120 games) he should definitely be able to hit 30+ homers. He hit 19 in 60 games last year.

Correa probably won’t hit .280.

Correa, if healthy, should be able to hit 25+ homers. However, health is a question for him.

Sano should be able hit 30+ homers.

Sonny Gray is the ace of the staff, and he’s better than Berrios. If he stays healthy, 10 wins shouldn’t be a problem at all.

I’ll take the over on the Twins’ 81.5 wins, because I’m a homer.

[Trov]

If Buck can stay healthy he will be over the HR number.  When healthy for a full year I think he will clearly pass 30.  He has really found his power and his HR are crushed, not wall scrapers, and he is locked in turning on those breaking pitches.  The only reason I would say under is because I expect only 81 to 90 games as that is his norm. 

[RJA]

Prediction time.  I am over on Buxton's taters (as Reggie liked to call them).  I think he is a 40 homer guy IF healthy.  I am under on Correa's BA, though given his history at Target Field, I may be and hope I am wrong.  I am over on Correa's taters especially given his love of Target Field.  I am over on Sanchez's taters, but I think it all depends on his start.  If he is struggling into May, he may see less time in the DH role.  I am assuming he will play regularly so I think he will surpass it even if his BA is very low.  I feel the same about Sano.  I think the fact it is his last year and he seems to be more committed to working on his weight and on his game means he will hit 35 plus.  I am over on Gray--I think he will get enough run support that just having an average season for him will put him over.  Finally, I am over on the Twins.  Call me an optimistist but I think if they are in the playoff hunt even as a wildcard in early July, they will add pitching if necessary.  I just wish they had done it in the offseason.  I don't think they will waste one year (?) of Correa if they are close.

[LastOnePicked]

Buxton 26.5HR - LOP Take: Over (29)

Correa .280BA - LOP Take: Under (.278)

Correa 25.5HR - LOP Take: Over (27)

Sanchez 25.5HR - LOP Take: Under (18)

Sano 31.5HR - LOP Take: Over (33)

Gray 9.5W - LOP Take: Over (12)

Twins 81.5W - LOP Take: Over (86)

What can I say, I'm feeling pretty bullish on our guys. Knock on wood, could be a fun season.

[mikelink45]

For the sake of debate I would reverse all your takes - let's check in at the end of the season!  Thanks for starting a good line of debates.  I did enjoy reading the article and your takes. 

[Einheri]

I'm under on most because I think the front office will be sellers in June/July even if the team comes strong out of the gates.  Hard to get enthused if you're on a team run like that.

[Halsey Hall]

Buxton will have a super year.  Reason - he now signs autographs with a bible verse.

[Twins_Fan_For_Life]

I'm "over" on all but Sanchez's homers.  I think Kiriloff plays a lot of first base and Sano is the DH for a bunch of games.  I am an unabashed homer, though, so...

[Unwinder]

31 minutes ago, Halsey Hall said:

Buxton will have a super year.  Reason - he now signs autographs with a bible verse.

Job 16:12

[2wins87]

Buxton being a legitimate MVP candidate but not making the over on 26.5 HR strikes me as a very odd take.

The power has been central to his breakout.  He's not going to suddenly turn into a super patient OBP guy, he's going to be aggressive and try to hit the snot out of the ball.  If the results are similar to the last few years he'll only need to get to 400 or so PA to beat the over.  Whether he stays healthy enough seems to be the main question to me.

[MN_ExPat]

1 hour ago, Einheri said:

I'm under on most because I think the front office will be sellers in June/July even if the team comes strong out of the gates.  Hard to get enthused if you're on a team run like that.

How about we let them play a little first before anointing the head of the Prince of Desperation.

[MN_ExPat]

Byron Buxton 26.5 Home Runs (Ted's Take - Under): Absolutely going to take over (maybe not by a huge amount but still).  If he stays on the field, the numbers will be there.

Carlos Correa .280 Batting Average (Ted's Take - Under): I'm going to say this one is probably going to be a Push.  Some will depend on how well the others around him are hitting and some will be due to just plain luck/unluck (no that's not a real word, but I'm claiming it for now).  I will argue the BA is a useful stat, just not the be all end all, and that he will be sitting between .265 (low end) to .285 (high end).

Carlos Correa 25.5 Home Runs (Ted's Take - Over): He'll be at or over this number.  He should see a good selection of pitches.

Gary Sanchez 25.5 Home Runs (Ted's Take - Over): Same as Correa, He'll be at or over this number.  He should see a good selection of pitches as long as he's in the lineup somewhere.

Miguel Sano 31.5 Home Runs (Ted's Take - Over):  He's too strong not to "hit" this number (hehe).  Over

Sonny Gray 9.5 Wins (Ted's Take - Over): With a better defense and offense behind him... way over (going to go high and say 15 or 16 wins)

Minnesota Twins 81.5 Wins (Ted's Take - Over):  Over.  Unless the baseball gods curse them again in their desire to crush the sole of man on earth, this team is to good to produce a carbon copy of last years perfect storm of disaster.  85 (low end) to 90 (high end) wins.

 

[Ted Schwerzler]

3 hours ago, Halsey Hall said:

Buxton will have a super year.  Reason - he now signs autographs with a bible verse.

Haven't seen this. Link?

[Ted Schwerzler]

2 hours ago, 2wins87 said:

Buxton being a legitimate MVP candidate but not making the over on 26.5 HR strikes me as a very odd take.

I guess my thought process is that there's a good amount of doubles and triples in there. I have consistently been high on his power, but 30 just seems like such a big number for him, even if he was on pace for 50 last year. Willing to be proven wrong.

[jmlease1]

Solid list of over/unders?

Buxton 26.5HR - I'm taking the over on this one. I'm betting on Buxton being healthy, and if he is, then he's going to clear 30 hrs in my book. It's a fair line, because you just don't know if he's going to get in enough games, but I'm feeling optimistic on the most exciting player finally getting that healthy year.

Correa .280BA - I'll go the under on this one: high average isn't one of Correa's strength, though it's not like he's a piker or anything. Not an easy one, just a gut check that he's going to land somewhere around .270-.275

Correa 25.5HR - I'm taking the under on this one as well; I think he lands in the low 20's somewhere (and it'll be great), but I just don't feel like the Twins are lucky enough for him to have back to back career years. Hope I lose this one, huge.

Sanchez 25.5HR - Tough one, because it's hard to know how many games he's going to play...but I'm going over. I think he's going to get enough run either behind the plate or at DH to clear this one. 

Sano 31.5HR - Another really tough number...but while I think the whole "he's reported in the best shape of his life" is a classic spring training nonsenseburger, I feel like he's better positioned to avoid the long slumps this year? I'm betting on 35 HRs for Sano, and for a lot of twins fans to forget every single one of them any time he has 3 Ks in a game.

Gray 9.5W - I'll bet the over, even though pitcher wins are a dumb stat. I think the twins are good enough to get him there and I'm betting he's healthy enough to make at least 25 starts.

Twins 81.5W - I'll bet the over on this one too. The rotation has plenty of questions to answer, but the depth is better. the lineup is playoff quality. I think the bullpen is underrated. This feels like a bounceback team that lands north of 85 wins to me. They were unlucky last year in terms of key injuries but also in that all of their coin flip acquisitions went south. I think they'll do better this year (I like the Archer acquisition; I'm less sanguine about Bundy, but last year we crapped out on both of those kinds of signings.)

 

Bonus over/under from me:

60 or more games in MLB for Jose Miranda (I'm betting the over)

[ashbury]

6 hours ago, Halsey Hall said:

Buxton will have a super year.  Reason - he now signs autographs with a bible verse.

Genesis 1:1, right?  "In The Big Inning..."

[Riverbrian]

I'm betting on Buxton Health because he just can't be unhealthy again... he just can't. His lifetime injury allotment has to be used up entirely at this point.   

If healthy he will blow past the 26.5 possibly reach 50 dingers and if healthy he will get those MVP votes to trigger his bonus.

Correa... I'll take the over on both... He wants the pay day at the end of the journey. He will be focused. 

Gary Sanchez... I'll take the under. He will need at least 400 AB's to get there. I don't know if 400 AB's will be available to him. 

Sano... He also needs health but I don't believe he has used up his lifetime injury allotment yet. He has hit over 31 home runs once. Health and prolonged struggles are the reason. 

Wins/Losses... I'm taking the over... because the Twins are my team and I say so... Damn it.  

[Nine of twelve]

9 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

Buxton 26.5HR - LOP Take: Over (29)

Correa .280BA - LOP Take: Under (.278)

Correa 25.5HR - LOP Take: Over (27)

Sanchez 25.5HR - LOP Take: Under (18)

Sano 31.5HR - LOP Take: Over (33)

Gray 9.5W - LOP Take: Over (12)

Twins 81.5W - LOP Take: Over (86)

What can I say, I'm feeling pretty bullish on our guys. Knock on wood, could be a fun season.

Agree on all.

[Dave The Dastardly]

I've consulted my crystal ball (an upended empty bottle of Grain Belt) to answer this question and here's what I see:

Second week of the season Buxton will run full steam into the centerfield fence and be implanted so deep they'll have to cut him out of the padding with a DeWalt sawzall; out for the season. Buck, once he recovers, will be traded to the Little Sisters of the Poor because, you know, the sisters have a hole in their lineup.

Correa will collide full-on with Polanco on a pick-off throw from Sanchez behind the plate, breaking both players', noses, clavicles and gold chains; both players out for the season, the chains converted into gold teeth and implanted in a rap singer.

Because of the errant throw, Sanchez will be traded to the White Sox for a couple of used baseballs in the hopes that he will do the same thing to the Sox. However, once in a Sox uniform he'll set the record for the most consecutive home runs for a season and top out around 80.

Sano will strike out so many times Rocco will just throw out a white towel every time the big man is due up. But then one day he consults the spreadsheets, holds a finger up to test the wind from the front office, and sends the big man up to the plate. He swings at the first pitch, low and away, misses by a foot, the bat slips out of his hand, bounces off the pitcher's head, beans the third baseman, ricochet's into the stands and KO's Wally the Beerman, touching off a riot for the scattered Linenekugels, which nobody will drink unless it's stolen or given away for free. Sano gets arrested for assault and bat-trio and does time in the Hennepin county slammer where he acquires 76 tattoos and a trombone and eventually takes over Cell Block 13 where everyone calls him "Whiffer".

There it is, straight from the bottle.

I'll take the over.

Edited April 7, 2022 by Dave The Dastardly
error

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Wins/Losses... I'm taking the over... because the Twins are my team and I say so... Damn it.  

I'm taking the over, on all.  Same air-tight logic as yours.

[Halsey Hall]

7 hours ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

Haven't seen this. Link?

There isn't a link, just a signed ball.

[se7799]

13 hours ago, Einheri said:

I'm under on most because I think the front office will be sellers in June/July even if the team comes strong out of the gates.  Hard to get enthused if you're on a team run like that.

I see your optimism is just bubbling over. Season not started yet and declaring us sellers already..  

[Halsey Hall]

On 4/6/2022 at 4:09 PM, ashbury said:

Genesis 1:1, right?  "In The Big Inning..."

Not quite.