Gio Urshela, Floor to Ceiling: Where did the Offense Go?

[Jamie Cameron]

In 2019 and 2020, Gio Urshela was an offensive force for the Yankees. What does he offer the Twins at his best and his worst? What happened to his offense?

Amid a maelstrom of often bizarre off-season moves, the Twins acquired Gio Urshela and much-maligned ex-wunderkind Gary Sanchez from the New York Yankees in exchange for Josh Donaldson (and his hefty contract), Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and backup backstop Ben Rortvedt.

Of the incoming contingent from the Bronx, much of the initial attention has been leveled at Sanchez. The formerly prodigious, terse slugger was symbolically banished by Yankees fans long before being sent to Minnesota. There has been much less attention geared towards Urshela, himself seeking a return to prominence in pastures new.

The casual throwaway line summarizing the Colombian’s place in this trade is simply ‘the Twins just downgraded at third base.’ On the most basic level, that’s true. Under the surface, however, Urshela and Donaldson aren’t worlds apart in recent seasons. In the last two seasons, Donaldson has accumulated 3.1 fWAR, Urshela 2.6. Go back a third season, and Donaldson leads 8.0 to 6.7. Urshela is a good player with a recent history of being a very good player. With this in mind, he deserves a more thorough examination of his talents than he has received thus far from Twins territory. So what does Urshela being to the table at his best and his worst? What’s left to work on in 2022?

The Ceiling
Originally signed by Cleveland as a free agent in 2008, Urshela spent time in the Guardians and Blue Jays organizations until he found his way to New York in 2018. That’s when Gio turned from nothing into something. In 2019, his first full season with the Yankees, Urshela accumulated 3.1 fWAR and managed a 132 wRC+. Urshela showed a particular propensity for hitting off-speed and breaking pitches, accumulating 12 runs of additional value against changeups and curveballs that season.

The shortened 2020 season was more of the same, when Urshela returned an even better 133 wRC+, and would have accumulated 4.3 fWAR over a full 162 game season. The Colombian’s peripherals improved across the board, as he finished in the 86th percentile in MLB for average exit velocity and in the 98th percentile for xBA.

The Floor
Then 2021 happened. Urshela’s offense bottomed out last season. He took a significant tumble in every basic and advanced metric you would care to name. Most strikingly, Urshela’s xBA fell from .314 in 2020, to just .252 in 2021. Many of the advanced metrics showed Urshela was still hitting the ball hard. His exit velocities and the frequency with which he barreled the ball were in line with his numbers from 2019 and 2020, so where did the offense go?

The most notable difference in Gio Urshela in 2021 was an inability to elevate the ball. Urshela’s average launch angle fluctuated from averaging 12.7 degrees during his outstanding 2019 and 2020 campaigns to just 7.5 degrees in 2021. The number of line drives he hit fell and the number of ground balls he hit increased significantly (around 8% on the season, equivalent to approximately 25-35 additional ground balls).

To better understand this, I sought out some more expert advice. Matt Lisle, a hitting coach with years of MLB and college experience, offered this: ‘there are so many things that can contribute to that, the most common issue is just attack angle’. Lisle was quick to point out that he hadn’t studied Urshela’s swing directly, but let’s dig into ‘attack angle’ in more depth.

Simply, attack angle is the angle of the bat’s path at impact relative to horizontal. Lisle also offered a useful graphic to demonstrate visually.

While it’s no sure thing that Urshela’s attack angle is the root of his offensive struggles in 2021, it’s clear that elevating the ball is a critical next step if he is to return to his stellar offensive output from 2019 and 2020.

Fielding and Financial Versatility
While not an elite defender, Urshela also offers defensive versatility. In 2020 (his best season) he managed -1 OAA (outs above average) at third base, compared to the 1 OAA offered by Donaldson that season. Urshela’s defense has fluctuated in its consistency with his hitting in his seasons in the majors, but he won't be a defensive detractor.

Urshela offers one more boon to the Twins, team control. Urshela is in his penultimate year of arbitration in 2022, being paid $6.5 million. His cost will increase in 2023 to around $9 million, not a huge number for a player who will likely be worth approximately 2.0 fWAR in 2022 and a similar number in 2023. While it’s likely Urshela is simply keeping the hot corner warm until the Twins deem Jose Miranda ready to takeover as everyday third-baseman, his presence provides a solid offensive and defensive floor at the position and the possibility he could rediscover the magic of 2019 and 2020.

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[LastOnePicked]

Great article, Jamie. Interest in Urshela kinda got lost in the Correa shuffle and offseason trade speculation, and I've been wondering what to expect of him in 2022. Here's hoping that coaches have been helping Gio find a way to recapture his swing.

[PatPfund]

I consider Urshela an upgrade over JD. Speaking of angles of attack, JD swung a potent bat on deteriorating pins that hobbled him badly outside the batter's box (watching him run was painful), and probably means a downward path on defense (when he can even take the field). The salary difference is especially key since it meant they could sign a top shortstop (and in the end, THE top FA SS).

Let me see... which would I rather have... Urshela/Correa or JD/Simmons?

[mikelink45]

I know it is a popular stance to always see the Twins in the best light, but Donaldson leaves Urshela in the dust.  He is a place holder and that is fine.  We dumped a salary and filled a void.  That is as far as I can go until I see the season play out. 

[Jamie Cameron]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

I know it is a popular stance to always see the Twins in the best light, but Donaldson leaves Urshela in the dust.  He is a place holder and that is fine.  We dumped a salary and filled a void.  That is as far as I can go until I see the season play out. 

I agree. Just easily forgotten that Urshela was coming off back to back 3.0+ fWAR seasons prior to 2021. Agree with your placeholder take, though.

[DocBauer]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

I know it is a popular stance to always see the Twins in the best light, but Donaldson leaves Urshela in the dust.  He is a place holder and that is fine.  We dumped a salary and filled a void.  That is as far as I can go until I see the season play out. 

I'm not disagreeing with you. But the moves made also allowed Correa to be here, for at least one season. We downgraded 3B for an upgrade at SS for one of the best players in the game.

Despite some controversy that follows Donaldson, which I think is overblown, he provided leadership in his own way, PLUS offensive production and quality defense, even though his range has started to slip. I would LOVE to have both Donaldson and Correa for 2022, but it wasn't going to happen. Donaldson may just stay healthy the next 2yrs and provide excellence for the Yanks. But for the Twins, or most teams, to bet on that for his age 36-37yr seasons is impractical. The Yankees can afford to take that chance.

Urshela may or may not equal Donaldson defensively in 2022, combined with Arraez, but you also have to factor the vast improvement both offensively and defensively at SS with Correa, while still having solid defense andoffense from 3B. BTW, the move of Donaldson also opens up opportunity for Miranda. 

So back to the original OP, I am still surprised/stunned the Twins didn't promote Miranda to end 2021. I can only surmise they wanted him to end the season on a positive note and get ready for 2022 because the new RIDICULOUS limited September rules regarding promotions would have limited opportunity. 

Come the lockout, and the abbreviated ST, how much time could Miranda have to prove he's ready? And he's not the only one affected of course. But when you aquire a solid, veteran ballplayer to fill a spot, what makes more sense? Throw the good veteran away who could be good, or just trust the rookie,  no matter how good he could be?

IF the Twins get the 2019-2020 version of Urshela, the Twins fleeced the Yankees (his 2021 version wasn't that bad). From the OP, it would be easy to be flippant and just say "he had a bad year. So what "? A late bloomer who had two good/great years and a mediocre 3rd year shouldn't  be dismissed in any way. But I do believe he's a good place setter for Miranda. And then, we're talking about depth, and potential trade depth piece, whether it's Urshela or someone else. When is having too much talent on hand a bad thing?

[old nurse]

9 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I know it is a popular stance to always see the Twins in the best light, but Donaldson leaves Urshela in the dust.  He is a place holder and that is fine.  We dumped a salary and filled a void.  That is as far as I can go until I see the season play out. 

I could have sworn the popular stance here was to see things in the worse possible way. Little picture views get popular. Urshela for Donaldson will always be a loss. In the big picture, signing a top free agent may have done the most short term good. It shows they are trying to do what it takes to win

[mikelink45]

9 hours ago, DocBauer said:

I'm not disagreeing with you. But the moves made also allowed Correa to be here, for at least one season. We downgraded 3B for an upgrade at SS for one of the best players in the game.

Despite some controversy that follows Donaldson, which I think is overblown, he provided leadership in his own way, PLUS offensive production and quality defense, even though his range has started to slip. I would LOVE to have both Donaldson and Correa for 2022, but it wasn't going to happen. Donaldson may just stay healthy the next 2yrs and provide excellence for the Yanks. But for the Twins, or most teams, to bet on that for his age 36-37yr seasons is impractical. The Yankees can afford to take that chance.

Urshela may or may not equal Donaldson defensively in 2022, combined with Arraez, but you also have to factor the vast improvement both offensively and defensively at SS with Correa, while still having solid defense andoffense from 3B. BTW, the move of Donaldson also opens up opportunity for Miranda. 

So back to the original OP, I am still surprised/stunned the Twins didn't promote Miranda to end 2021. I can only surmise they wanted him to end the season on a positive note and get ready for 2022 because the new RIDICULOUS limited September rules regarding promotions would have limited opportunity. 

Come the lockout, and the abbreviated ST, how much time could Miranda have to prove he's ready? And he's not the only one affected of course. But when you aquire a solid, veteran ballplayer to fill a spot, what makes more sense? Throw the good veteran away who could be good, or just trust the rookie,  no matter how good he could be?

IF the Twins get the 2019-2020 version of Urshela, the Twins fleeced the Yankees (his 2021 version wasn't that bad). From the OP, it would be easy to be flippant and just say "he had a bad year. So what "? A late bloomer who had two good/great years and a mediocre 3rd year shouldn't  be dismissed in any way. But I do believe he's a good place setter for Miranda. And then, we're talking about depth, and potential trade depth piece, whether it's Urshela or someone else. When is having too much talent on hand a bad thing?

I know we tie Donaldson to Correa, but I don't.  For a year the Twins could have had them both.  Our spending is not crazy wild.  If they wanted to save money from Donaldson they should have signed a good pitcher.  We could have had Garver, Donaldson, and Correa - now that would be fun.

[miller761]

Injuries played a big role in his sub par season last year. If he is healthy all season we will be glad he is a Twin.

[Trov]

I think they are not expecting much from him, and if they can get him close to his 2019 2020 seasons the team will be very happy.  If he struggles, they can look to trade him, or just cut him if Miranda is ready to come up or just put Arraez in.  They are not counting on Urshela to be anything amazing, he will be hitting 6th or 7th most games.  

I would agree we downgraded overall at 3rd base, but it freed up money to get a SS, maybe just for 1 year but huge upgrade there, and we have others that can play 3rd base, we did not have anyone ready to play SS this year. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

It's interesting that the FO went with two bats that had success in the past. I'm guessing they saw something they thought was fixable. I hope that's the case, because that's the only way this trade works. No question Donaldson/Garver were better (when healthy). I realize health matters, which is important, but simply getting a healthy, higher floor, isn't going to make up the win totals we need to make a solid post season run. 

[dex8425]

13 hours ago, PatPfund said:

I consider Urshela an upgrade over JD. Speaking of angles of attack, JD swung a potent bat on deteriorating pins that hobbled him badly outside the batter's box (watching him run was painful), and probably means a downward path on defense (when he can even take the field). The salary difference is especially key since it meant they could sign a top shortstop (and in the end, THE top FA SS).

Let me see... which would I rather have... Urshela/Correa or JD/Simmons?

Well we also gave up Garver so it was essentially Garver, Donaldson and Rortvedt for Urshela, Sanchez and salary relief to sign Correa. Seems like an upgrade to the Twins overall, given the amount of games Garver and Donaldson would realistically play this year with their injury history and age. 

[TopGunn#22]

I expect the Twins to get far better production and impact from Urshela this year than Sanchez.  I hope I'm wrong, but I think Urshela will be solid.  He gives the Twins a guy that can help out with some games at SS if Arraez is playing 3B and Correa gets a day off to DH.  I for one am pretty disappointed the Twins are starting Miranda at St. Paul.  He should be playing LF, 3B, 2B and 1B as a super utility guy with a bat you WANT somewhere in that lineup.  The only way Sanchez out does Urshela this year is if he hits .240-.250 and mashes 25-30 HR's.  If THAT happens all will be good.    

[Finlander]

Nobody has addressed the elephant in the room: Ursela's unexpected hitting output surge in 2019 was likely affected by the juiced ball. Prior to that he was a utility man with a good glove, could hit a little bit. Meanwhile, oft-injured Donaldson had demonstrated an all star type bat over several seasons. To expect Ursela to return to 2019 hitting levels is unrealistic, unless the lively ball is brought back.

[stringer bell]

Here are some numbers--36, 31, 30, 29. That is the age of the four players exchanged with more than a year's experience in the trades made. Donaldson is 36 and when does a real decline begin? Garver is 31 and playing a demanding position. There are exceptions, but players don't generally get healthier as they age, which leads to decreased production.  

Urshela may or may not hit like he did in '19-'20, but if he doesn't hit, it provides a place for Arraez' offense. Long-term, Miranda could/should be able to supplant Urshela. Who knows, if Lewis isn't ready, he might be the bridge to a shortstop in 2023. 

[Danchat]

30 minutes ago, Finlander said:

Nobody has addressed the elephant in the room: Ursela's unexpected hitting output surge in 2019 was likely affected by the juiced ball. Prior to that he was a utility man with a good glove, could hit a little bit. Meanwhile, oft-injured Donaldson had demonstrated an all star type bat over several seasons. To expect Ursela to return to 2019 hitting levels is unrealistic, unless the lively ball is brought back.

Urshela did follow up his the 2019 season with an even better one in 2020 according to OPS+ - he improved from 133 to 137 even though the actual numbers look a little worse, but that was because of how the rest of the league regressed after the 2019 juiced ball.

[Jacksson]

11 hours ago, DocBauer said:

I'm not disagreeing with you. But the moves made also allowed Correa to be here, for at least one season. We downgraded 3B for an upgrade at SS for one of the best players in the game.

The El Cheapo, Pohlad run Twins COULD have had Correa EVEN if they had kept Donaldson.  They wouldn't have had to trade away Garver for a shortstop and then turnaround and take the Yankee CASTOFFS of Urshela & Sanchez to get out from under Donaldson's contract.  Let's not forget that the same front office Brain Wizards that SIGNED Donaldson were the same people that were so DESPERATE to unload him (and his contract) after just 2 years.  CHEAP is as CHEAP does.

[stringer bell]

I'll say this again, the contract for Donaldson was a "win now" deal adding another top quartile player to the Bomba squad. The consensus was that the value of the player would probably be greatest in the first two years--Donaldson was 34 in 2020. The Twins got 163 games out of JD and he wasn't 100% for a large portion of those games. Covid and his calves limited him. Will he perform at an All-Star level this year and next? Maybe, but given his age and injury history, it's far from a sure thing. I'm not a huge fan of the Yankee trade, but if it is what they needed to do to clear money for an elite 27-year old shortstop, I can understand. 

[Riverbrian]

As Twins fans we watched Trevor Plouffe hold down the every day 3B position for 6 years and produce a career OPS lower than what Gio dropped down to last year. 

Yet Gio has some of us concerned? 

Plouffe was 3B only so Sano was moved to RF to accommodate Plouffe blocking up one spot. 

Gio is better defensively and can be moved to a utility position to accommodate Miranda or Nolan Arenado when we trade for him at the deadline. ?

Gio can play a big role on this club by both playing 3B and by not playing 3B.

Gio is the least of any concerns that I have. 

He's the Big Lebowski rug that ties the room together. Welcome to Minnesota. 

[milkytoast]

2 hours ago, Finlander said:

Nobody has addressed the elephant in the room: Ursela's unexpected hitting output surge in 2019 was likely affected by the juiced ball.

You know the rest of the league was using the juiced ball too right?

[Mike Sixel]

I like the gamble. Real upside, with a good floor. 

[twinstalker]

I just skimmed the article, but, um, Urshela was hurt last year.

I wouldn't expect him to put up numbers equivalent to playing in the Yankee bandbox stadium, but if he's healthy, he'll be fine.  And I have to believe he'll be a better fielder than Donaldson, whose fielding acclaim was based much more on reputation than reality

[mikelink45]

18 hours ago, twinstalker said:

I just skimmed the article, but, um, Urshela was hurt last year.

I wouldn't expect him to put up numbers equivalent to playing in the Yankee bandbox stadium, but if he's healthy, he'll be fine.  And I have to believe he'll be a better fielder than Donaldson, whose fielding acclaim was based much more on reputation than reality

And what are the facts that you use to decide Urshela is a better fielder?