A trade possibility between the Twins and the Padres? Paddock for???

[AlwaysinModeration]

After the Archer signing, I was fairly certain the Twins were done dealing for this off-season, as the Oakland trade talks seemed to have stalled.  However, yesterday the As DID wind up trading Manaea, to a somewhat surprising destination - the San Diego Padres.  Why is it surprising that the Padres were the team to acquire Manaea (for an affordable price, the 12th and 24th ranked prospects in the Padres system?

Because look at the Padres’ starting rotation:

Yu Darvish

Blake Snell

Joe Musgrove

Mike Clevinger

Chris Paddack

Nick Martinez

and now Sean Manaea, too.  That seems like seven pitchers for five rotation spots.

But wait, there’s more.  Note that they have:

(working back from injury) Dinelson Lamet

(top prospect/top 10 pick) Ryan Weathers

(shine has come off the rising star of former top prospect) Mackenzie Gore

Starting pitching depth is not the only thing the Padres have that the Twins need.  They also have four viable catchers on their 40-man roster, including 

Austin Nola

Victor Caratini

(top prospect) Luis Campesano

(recently acquired) Jorge Alfaro.

The Padres are looking for outfielders.  They’ve apparently explored trading for Brian Reynolds of the Pirates (for a potential price of Paddack, Weathers, and likely more), but that hasn’t materialized.

It seems like the two teams match up well in terms of a trade, and even more so after the Padres added yet another starter.  The Twins have outfield options that they could send to San Diego, such as Max Kepler or Trevor Larnach, or even Luiz Arraez, who would immediately take on a Tony Gwynn like sheen in San Diego.

For what it’s worth, the site Baseball Trade Values has the following values:

Arraez 27.6

Kepler 23.6

Larnach 22.6

 

SD SPs

Paddack 17.4

Gore 14.1

Manaea 14.1

Weathers 10.1

Lamet 1.5

 

SD Cs

Campusano 22.2

Caratini 1.9

 

It seems feasible to me that they could match up.  Maybe Gore, Lamet and Caratini for Kepler and a Twins prospect or two?  Or maybe Larnach for Paddack straight up?  
 

What do people think is a realistic trade?  

[jorgenswest]

The Twins certainly don’t have a Reynolds to offer. Larnach is at best a mediocre corner defender and didn’t show readiness last year. The Padres need someone ready today. Kepler has the glove and I am not sure the Twins can replace him with their limited depth in outfielders that can defend. They would really need to believe in Celestino to trade Kepler for Paddack. I doubt the Padres see Arraez as an outfield option.

 

[umterp23]

really depends on Kiriloff and is he taking over 1st base on a more regular basis.  If not, Kiriloff is your LF, Kepler stays in RF and Gordon/Arraez are rotational.  Do we have some pieces and do they have extra bodies, sure do, but 1B has to be settled and then dominoes can go from there.  Right now we are stuck in a holding pattern unless we believe Martin or Lewis are your next outfielders and play the corners.  My gut tells me Lewis stays at short to build up game experience as Correa opts out.  So is Martin the guy? Settle 1B and see what happens.

 

[terrydactyls]

I would offer San Diego Kepler, Arraez, Sanchez, and a prospect (one of the following - Woods-Richardson, Hernandez, Rodriquez, Strotman) for Paddock, Caratini, and Hosmer.  Hosmer has to be thrown in to give the Padres salary relief.  The Twins could release him and just eat the remaining salary if they had to.

[nicksaviking]

If Kepler still has trade value, I'd move him ASAP. Few players can go two years in a row with his offensive production and still be viewed as having a favorable contract. He goes a third year, and the Twins will lose all equity in that deal.

[Dman]

Given what I have been reading San Diego is looking to dump salary especially Hosmer's salary.  To do that they are likely going to have to give up something fairly big prospect\player wise and even more likely pitching.  They are not willing to give up their top three prospects.  

They also have older pitchers who have injuries in the past so they will need some depth.  I think they are gearing up for a deal that allows them to get out of Hosmer's salary.  I don't think the Twins will be interested in that.  

Kepler would possibly work in a deal but I don't think he would be San Diego's first choice for outfield help.  I don't think the Twins are going to be a good match.

[nicksaviking]

30 minutes ago, Dman said:

Given what I have been reading San Diego is looking to dump salary especially Hosmer's salary.  To do that they are likely going to have to give up something fairly big prospect\player wise and even more likely pitching.  They are not willing to give up their top three prospects.  

They also have older pitchers who have injuries in the past so they will need some depth.  I think they are gearing up for a deal that allows them to get out of Hosmer's salary.  I don't think the Twins will be interested in that.  

Kepler would possibly work in a deal but I don't think he would be San Diego's first choice for outfield help.  I don't think the Twins are going to be a good match.

Well if the Padres are trying to dethrone the Dodgers and pass the Giants they don't have the luxury of waiting out trade partners. Getting rid of Hosmer and finding OF help is them trying to kill two birds with one stone. Any team that helps them in that regard is either a sucker or getting something magnificent in return.

Most likely, if they want to address the OF issue, they are going to have to separate that quest from the quest to rid themselves of Hosmer. 

Seems doubtful to me that the Twins will work out a deal, but the top OFs they want are going to cost them CJ Abrams, if they want to keep him, and I'm sure they do, they'll need to settle for a lesser OF.

[Trov]

I think we could make a trade with them, but it depends on how they see our OF guys.  Kepler I think would be their most interest as he is proven to be MLB level play with good defense.  His bat is not as strong as Larnach could be.  Do we think the loss of defense from Kepler is worth the possible upside in pitching?  

Personally, if Padres would give up a starter for Larnach I pounce on that deal.  Larnach strikes me as a guy that will not do much for Twins as he just lacks a clear spot for this season, and maybe next but he has others pushing him to take up his spot. 

Maybe we can get a 3 team deal involved as well.  I think at this point Twins will want to see how first week or two play out though and see how they feel about the current rotation they have. 

[chpettit19]

29 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

If Kepler still has trade value, I'd move him ASAP. Few players can go two years in a row with his offensive production and still be viewed as having a favorable contract. He goes a third year, and the Twins will lose all equity in that deal.

Think you're selling Kepler short here. He's been a 2 win player each of the last 2 years even with his poor hitting those seasons. With 1 win generally being viewed as worth $8M he's been worth $16M each of the last 2 years while being paid $6.25M (I'm extending his 48 game numbers over the full 162 for 2020) and $6.5M during those seasons. He's set to make $6.75M this year and $8.5M next year. Even if the Twins pick up his $10M option in 2024 he'd be on a discount even if he simply maintains his performance from the last 2 years.

[nicksaviking]

7 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Think you're selling Kepler short here. He's been a 2 win player each of the last 2 years even with his poor hitting those seasons. With 1 win generally being viewed as worth $8M he's been worth $16M each of the last 2 years while being paid $6.25M (I'm extending his 48 game numbers over the full 162 for 2020) and $6.5M during those seasons. He's set to make $6.75M this year and $8.5M next year. Even if the Twins pick up his $10M option in 2024 he'd be on a discount even if he simply maintains his performance from the last 2 years.

There's no way the Twins pick up his 10M option if he still isn't hitting and I doubt the Twins are basing their evaluation on Kepler on WAR. His power is drying up and he's struggling to get on base; that's what they'll care about. Maybe the new shift rule will help him get on base more, but that's not going to help him put balls over the fence.

[chpettit19]

39 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

I would offer San Diego Kepler, Arraez, Sanchez, and a prospect (one of the following - Woods-Richardson, Hernandez, Rodriquez, Strotman) for Paddock, Caratini, and Hosmer.  Hosmer has to be thrown in to give the Padres salary relief.  The Twins could release him and just eat the remaining salary if they had to.

I'd be incredibly pissed if the Twins did that deal. Where does this improve the Twins at all? You're basically suggesting trading Kepler, Arraez, and a prospect for Paddock.

Sanchez and Caratini are a wash. Sanchez has drastically higher upside with the bat while Caratini is solid, but unspectacular defensively compared to Sanchez being a complete disaster behind the plate. And at this point the Padres are going to have to pay (in both money and prospects most likely) to get rid of Hosmer's contract.

I wouldn't trade Kepler or Arraez straight up for Paddock let alone both of them. If they're trading Kepler and Arraez and a prospect for an arm it better be significantly better than someone who had an ERA over 5 in 108.1 innings last year.

[TwinsDr2021]

I am not against trading Kepler, but if they do what is the plan for the Twins outfield? Buxton and AK and? and Plan B is ?

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

There's no way the Twins pick up his 10M option if he still isn't hitting and I doubt the Twins are basing their evaluation on Kepler on WAR. His power is drying up and he's struggling to get on base; that's what they'll care about. Maybe the new shift rule will help him get on base more, but that's not going to help him put balls over the fence.

At this point I wouldn't expect them to pick up his option, no, but I guarantee you part of their evaluation of Kepler is WAR. It's their internal version of WAR, but it's absolutely part of the equation, and a big part at that. Even in his down year last year Kepler was a league average hitter while providing elite defense in RF (95% in outs above average) with the ability to cover CF as well. He's not a top of the lineup hitter, and Rocco has done him no favors by continuing to force him into those spots, but he is absolutely a bargain on the deal he's on.

[Dman]

3 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Well if the Padres are trying to dethrone the Dodgers and pass the Giants they don't have the luxury of waiting out trade partners. Getting rid of Hosmer and finding OF help is them trying to kill two birds with one stone. Any team that helps them in that regard is either a sucker or getting something magnificent in return.

Most likely, if they want to address the OF issue, they are going to have to separate that quest from the quest to rid themselves of Hosmer. 

Seems doubtful to me that the Twins will work out a deal, but the top OFs they want are going to cost them CJ Abrams, if they want to keep him, and I'm sure they do, they'll need to settle for a lesser OF.

I agree and if Abrams was a little further along they could use him or Tatis in center if they needed to.  Personally I think they are stuck unless they are willing to go in higher toward the cap. Maybe get Conforto or as you said a lesser Outfielder.  The tough part as you also stated is they are built to win now but still have pieces to fill to compete against the Giants and Dodgers.

[nicksaviking]

3 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I am not against trading Kepler, but if they do what is the plan for the Twins outfield? Buxton and AK and? and Plan B is ?

Larnach, Rooker, Lewis, Martin, Celestino? I don't really care, but I want the young guys to get worked out at the MLB level anyway.

 

[tony&rodney]

The only path for a trade between San Diego and Minnesota is likely to let Kepler go and then the Twins are really in a hole unless they swing another much bigger risky trade. The only real value to be gained from the Padres is to take on Hosmer and hope to get somebody like Gore or Campusano in return. The Twins won't take on the money and Gore is unlikely to be available. I don't see any trade between these two teams.

[RaoulDuke]

I was on the Padres deal bandwagon but looking at them closer I am not sure anymore. 

Snell (3 years control) and Darvish (2 years control) interest me but both have injury and performance concerns.  I could be on board with a Kepler led package for one of them (preferably Snell) but those are 2 of the top of their rotation so that may rise the price to high.

They aren't trading Musgrove and Clevinger is set back coming off tommy john.

Paddack could be a buy low guy but there seems to be a lot of negative steam around him.

Gore is interesting as another buy low guy but he would add to the AAA log jam, I would probably do a Larnach + another middle prospect for him.

 

[baul0010]

Maybe San Diego's philosophy is you can never have enough quality starting pitching.  I'm sure the Twins have a similar philosophy.... Just minus the quality part.

[twins_89]

About the only trade I could see working would be based around Larnach for Paddack+Weathers. I'd probably do that if it was on the table. I don't see the Twins moving Kepler and Arraez isn't really an outfielder.

I think it comes down to how much the Twins really believe in the Ryan, Ober, Winder, Balazovic, and Sands group (with Canterino and Woods-Richardson potentially being added to the group later in the season).

[Cap'n Piranha]

1 hour ago, baul0010 said:

Maybe San Diego's philosophy is you can never have enough quality starting pitching.  I'm sure the Twins have a similar philosophy.... Just minus the quality part.

The Pads feel apart at the end of last year, in part because of their SP depth (or more accurately, lack thereof).  When you're San Diego, and you're spending over $200M on payroll, you kind of are obligated to go for it.  In addition, when 3 of your top 6 are old/decline candidates (Darvish--36 in August, less WAR in 2021 than 2020), constantly injured (Snell--more than 130 IP only once), and coming back from TJ (Clevinger), adding another arm makes a lot of sense.

[baul0010]

3 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

The Pads feel apart at the end of last year, in part because of their SP depth (or more accurately, lack thereof).  When you're San Diego, and you're spending over $200M on payroll, you kind of are obligated to go for it.  In addition, when 3 of your top 6 are old/decline candidates (Darvish--36 in August, less WAR in 2021 than 2020), constantly injured (Snell--more than 130 IP only once), and coming back from TJ (Clevinger), adding another arm makes a lot of sense.

I agree.  That's also why I don't think they want to deal. Better to have to much than not enough.   They may be injured and old but at least there is a chance they could get quality innings pitched from their additions.  

We'll see what our pitching additions give us.  Hopefully we have some kids ready to pitch by June.  I think we are going to need them 

[jimbo92107]

Right now, this year, the Twins organization is loaded with more young pitching talent than I have ever seen. At a very minimum they've got six guys that should get a cuppa coffee sometime this season. Given the usual number of injuries and underperforming, we could easily see two of them in the first couple months. I fully expect the Saints pitching staff to rack up some very low-scoring games. 

In this context, I stop trading. This team won't break another home run record, but this lineup can score runs in bunches, and the defense looks very strong. I want to see this first starting rotation do its thing for a month. With the batsmen on this team, we should seldom worry about getting blanked by anybody. Don't be surprised if 6 to 8 runs per game is fairly common for this group. That means the pitchers won't have to nibble and try to be perfect. Just bring yer best stuff and see who can hit it. 

[Rosterman]

6 minutes ago, jimbo92107 said:

Right now, this year, the Twins organization is loaded with more young pitching talent than I have ever seen. At a very minimum they've got six guys that should get a cuppa coffee sometime this season. Given the usual number of injuries and underperforming, we could easily see two of them in the first couple months. I fully expect the Saints pitching staff to rack up some very low-scoring games. 

In this context, I stop trading. This team won't break another home run record, but this lineup can score runs in bunches, and the defense looks very strong. I want to see this first starting rotation do its thing for a month. With the batsmen on this team, we should seldom worry about getting blanked by anybody. Don't be surprised if 6 to 8 runs per game is fairly common for this group. That means the pitchers won't have to nibble and try to be perfect. Just bring yer best stuff and see who can hit it. 

The Twins have a helluva a lot of PITCHING PROSPECTS. They need to get them innings, and see how they handle the majors.  They broke in Ober and Ryan last year. Should've looked at Strotman and given Balazovic at least the ALbers innings.

 

The sad part is that ALL the guys are half-season rotation arms at this point. You hope Archer and Bundy are here only for part of the season and the Twins can cycle in any numebr of arms to get them exposure before deciding on who breaks camp next year (remember, Maeda MAY be back). Enlow, Sands and Centenio are all winners. varland shows promise. But will these arms be established for 2023, 2024, or 2025.

[tony&rodney]

10 hours ago, Rosterman said:

The sad part is that ALL the guys are half-season rotation arms at this point.

Therein lies the issue with The Plan. The Twins are sitting with some fairly respectable young pitchers but the experienced anchors to lead the rotation have more questions regarding their seasons than the rooks. Spring Training is for getting in shape. The early visual (from my side at least) is that all of Gray, Archer, Smeltzer, Ryan, Ober, and Winder look pretty solid as does the bullpen. Is it possible that the return of an effective Dobnak and  Smeltzer becomes somehow more important than anyone could have imagined? Friday, it starts and we will find out.

[Rosterman]

Twins get Campusano, Snell, Myers, Hosmer and $30 million dollars. Send them Sano, Sanchez, Strotman, Jax and Rooker.

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, Rosterman said:

Twins get Campusano, Snell, Myers, Hosmer and $30 million dollars. Send them Sano, Sanchez, Strotman, Jax and Rooker.

In that scenario SD is swapping out Myers for Rooker, but they reportedly want to add to their OF. Myers is their backup CF and that ballpark has a large outfield for Rooker to cover.

[AlwaysinModeration]

The reason I posted this discussion forum was twofold:

1) Padres stockpile of SP and C and

2) @TheLeviathan clamoring for the Twins to trade for Lamet.  Lamet is not even mentioned in write-ups on the SD rotation.

I took a look at Lamet’s track record.  I actually pulled up a comparison on BBref to Jose Berrios.  Other than having gotten about half the playing time as Berrios, and much higher walks, Lamet is on par or better than Berrios on a lot of key metrics; same career ERA+, better career FIP, lower career H/9, higher career K/9.

Lamet is arb eligible through 2023.  What would be a reasonable trade for him?

And @jimbo92107 —I am actually quite inclined to agree with you about the young pitching prospects coming in for the Twins.  Just think this might be an opportunity the Twins should explore.

[tony&rodney]

2 minutes ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

The reason I posted this discussion forum was twofold:

1) Padres stockpile of SP and C and

2) Another poster (nicksaviking?) clamoring for the Twins to trade for Lamet.  Lamet is not even mentioned in write-ups on the SD rotation.

I took a look at Lamet’s track record.  I actually pulled up a comparison on BBref to Jose Berrios.  Other than having gotten about half the playing time as Berrios, and much higher walks, Lamet is on par or better than Berrios on a lot of key metrics; same career ERA+, better career FIP, lower career H/9, higher career K/9.

Lamet is arb eligible through 2023.  What would be a reasonable trade for him?

And jimbo—I am actually quite inclined to agree with you about the young pitching prospects coming in for the Twins.  Just think this might be an opportunity the Twins should explore.

The Padres do have SP and C players, but they need an outfielder that is worthwhile. The Twins only have two outfielders. Thus, sad as it seems, these two teams do not match up at all .... unless the Twins complete a blockbuster trade of their own for an outfielder and then turn to San Diego. 

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

The Padres do have SP and C players, but they need an outfielder that is worthwhile. The Twins only have two outfielders. Thus, sad as it seems, these two teams do not match up at all .... unless the Twins complete a blockbuster trade of their own for an outfielder and then turn to San Diego. 

I'd honestly rather watch Larnach play for the Twins than Kepler. As disappointing as Larnach's debut was last year, it wasn't demonstrably worse than Kepler's season. And Larnach should be on the upswing while Kepler is clearly on the downswing.

And if the Twins wait for Larnach/Martin/Lewis/Celestino/Rooker/Wallner(/for fun I'll throw Mark Conteras' name in too since he seems to have had an underappreciated season in AAA last year) to take Kepler's job, that probably means that when they're ready to move Kepler, he's been playing too poorly to get anything for him.

[Mike Sixel]

21 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I'd honestly rather watch Larnach play for the Twins than Kepler. As disappointing as Larnach's debut was last year, it wasn't demonstrably worse than Kepler's season. And Larnach should be on the upswing while Kepler is clearly on the downswing.

And if the Twins wait for Larnach/Martin/Lewis/Celestino/Rooker/Wallner(/for fun I'll throw Mark Conteras' name in too since he seems to have had an underappreciated season in AAA last year) to take Kepler's job, that probably means that when they're ready to move Kepler, he's been playing too poorly to get anything for him.

you seem to be ignoring defense when comparing Larnah to Kepler......

I'm ok with moving Kepler, if they just put Martin out there in LF and let him run with it....and they get a SP in return. I just don't know that any of the SD pitchers that are available are much better than what the Twins have* (unless he replaces Bundy immediately).

*If all the young guys are bad, one more pitcher on a 2 year deal isn't helping