Manea to the Padres

[The Mad King]

Well that sucks....

[TheMatt]

Yep. Pretty big ineptitude of addressing the rotation with quality starters.

[Vanimal46]

 

[bunsen82]

Manea is an ok pitcher,  but not someone that is truly going to move the needle.  Montas on the other hand would move the needle and likely costs more than the #12 and #26 prospect in the padres system.   I think Montas is the one the twins have had interest in and many other teams.  I also think they were being slow played which is why they went and signed Archer.  Based on his performance yesterday,  I think the twins are optimistic on what Archer could provide for the twins this year.  Already throwing 95 mph in his first outing.   He has the talent to easily be a #2 or #3 pitcher,  and can be a borderline #1 piling up a lot of strikeouts if he can have his fastball in the 95 to 96 range.  The fastball is his weakest pitch.  Gray appears to be the one slightly behind the curve. 

If I were in management,  honestly I would run this team out and see what they can do.  They have a ton of wild cards and individuals with health concerns which if they all stay healthy this is a team that can compete,  most likely 1 to 2 or more will get injured and 1-2 may underperform.  There is no reason to invest a ton unless you are getting good value back. 

The brilliancy in the trades that ultimately netted us Correa is that it greatly enhanced the twins assets by merely moving around money and a few players.  Unless the twins are in contention to possibly win it all - you trade Correa.  You net a top prospect or two and you move on.  I still think 2022 is a transition year.  But the Twins have done a fine job,  and putting a good enough product on the field to keep the fans excited while maintaining their pipeline for the future.    

[LewFordLives]

Neither of those prospects were on the Padres top ten. Seems like the Twins could've topped that without making it hurt 

[nicksaviking]

Manaea wouldn’t have put the Twins over the top. Manaea and Gray would be at the mid or back of the rotation of the top AL teams.

Had the Twins signed a couple big free agent starters last fall he would have been a great pick up, but since they didn’t, this trade wouldn’t have done much.

[Vanimal46]

Manaea’s just not that good. I don’t think we’re missing out on anything. 
 

[Rosterman]

I think I would've avoided playing the A's game, espcially for a one-year rental.

 

[TheLeviathan]

This only further helps the cause of trading for Lamet.  

[Brandon]

On the plus side, the Padres have extra starters and could use a low cost LF.

[Obsvr]

I've got a feeling the padres flip manea to the twins.  Wouldnt be surprised to see kepler end up out the door with the twins getting a manea and one other pitcher.

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

20 minutes ago, Obsvr said:

I've got a feeling the padres flip manea to the twins.  Wouldnt be surprised to see kepler end up out the door with the twins getting a manea and one other pitcher.

Certainly seems possible, but I'd wonder then why it wasn't just a 3-team trade. I have to guess the Twins have been in touch with the Padres at least about the general availability of their pitchers and what they'd look for in return.

But if not Manaea, maybe another arm from SD?

[Brandon]

Maybe we get Yu Darvish and some cash say 15 million to help cover last 2 seasons of his contract for a package built around Kepler.

[Dman]

Honestly I think the Twins might essentially have Manea in the system and his name is Devin Smeltzer.  They look like similar players stat wise until last year where Manea had his best K rate ever, but Manea has never been a dominant pitcher before last year.  A good pitcher for sure but how much better than even Smeltzer?  Probably not much although Devin has never made it an entire season yet so can't say he can handle a full season load either.  If Smeltzer pitches like 2019 even if more in line with his FIP or XFIP (which were higher than his ERA) he still looks like a poor man's Manea to me.  So not sure the Twins really needed to trade for Manea especially since it is just a one year deal.  

 

[RJA]

If the Twins wanted him, they could have easily beaten the Padres offer.  While I would say he is an improvement over Bundy and Archer, I am not sure he is a big enough improvement to justify surrending too much for in terms of prospects.  Plus, he was pitching in Oakland which is a pitcher's ballpark.  It will be interesting to see if Oakland is also going to move Montas now.  If they do, I hope the Twins make a strong effort to get him.

[jorgenswest]

Woods-Richardson probably wins this deal though Oakland would have scouted this spring and really liked these two. They may have seen progress not reflected in rankings based on last year.

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, Brandon said:

Maybe we get Yu Darvish and some cash say 15 million to help cover last 2 seasons of his contract for a package built around Kepler.

The Twins have plenty of cash.

[AlwaysinModeration]

3 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

This only further helps the cause of trading for Lamet.  

I was surprised to plug this trade into Baseball Trade Values:

Kepler for Dinelson Lamet and Mackenzie Gore

….and see that the Twins would be overpaying 23.6 to 15.6.

[adorduan]

3 hours ago, Dman said:

Honestly I think the Twins might essentially have Manea in the system and his name is Devin Smeltzer.  They look like similar players stat wise until last year where Manea had his best K rate ever, but Manea has never been a dominant pitcher before last year.  A good pitcher for sure but how much better than even Smeltzer?  Probably not much although Devin has never made it an entire season yet so can't say he can handle a full season load either.  If Smeltzer pitches like 2019 even if more in line with his FIP or XFIP (which were higher than his ERA) he still looks like a poor man's Manea to me.  So not sure the Twins really needed to trade for Manea especially since it is just a one year deal.  

 

You have a lot more confidence in Smeltzer than I do.He seems like an AAAA guy to me....

[Dman]

6 minutes ago, adorduan said:

You have a lot more confidence in Smeltzer than I do.He seems like an AAAA guy to me....

There is no guarantee he will be as good as he has been in the past especially since he hasn't pitched an entire season at the MLB level yet.  Granted it is spring training but he just went 4 innings against the Rays main lineup and gave up no runs.  His ERA in 2019 the year of the juiced ball he had a 3.86 ERA in 49 Innings with a 1.27 WHIP.  Those are good numbers for a starter.  I am not saying he can do that for a full season but he has had some success when not injured at the MLB level and he looks like he might be back to normal this spring, so I think he can be effective. Not elite, but effective if called upon.

[Rosterman]

I would take Blake Snell from the Padres.

 

[jimbo92107]

Effective, but not elite. If Devin Smelzer (down your pants) can be effective...hey, what are we talking about? This is the Minnesota Twins, they don't care if a guy looks fancy. If he can toss the ball underhanded and gets guys out, hand him the ball on Opening Day. 

Smeltzer intrigues me. He says he finally is truly healthy, even dealing with side-effect of chemo treatments he had as a kid. Why not give him a try? When 'healthy,' Smelt was pretty close to an average mlb pitcher. If he can't do it, then fine, at least now you know.  

[Unwinder]

Much like Toronto's Berrios extension, it's somewhat disheartening to see how little this took.

[old nurse]

Oakland got a pitcher that might be good enough to be a back of rotation inning eating starter this year and a high ceiling lottery ticket. Not good trade by the prospect ranking numbers but might actually help the team in the long run.

About the closest comp would be the Twins giving up Urbana and Sands for one year of Manea.

If (there is almost always an if in baseball) Manea can pitch to a 3.8 something ERA the Padres will have a decent rotation. If all of there ifs work out, deep into the playoffs.

[Doctor Gast]

Padres stole Manaea which leads me to believe that teams are trying to low ball the A's believing that they'll fold. Twins need to offer the A's a fair trade for Montas & stop fooling around.

[Brock Beauchamp]

For those of you complaining about the Twins not beating this offer, remember that we're four days from Opening Day. It's likely the A's settled for this price and wouldn't have accepted this return a week or more ago.

And I can't really blame the Twins for growing impatient and moving in a different direction. I said it last week that I believe the A's were over-playing their hand and this return and timing only reinforces that belief.

[Mike Sixel]

On 4/3/2022 at 8:42 AM, LewFordLives said:

Neither of those prospects were on the Padres top ten. Seems like the Twins could've topped that without making it hurt 

Seems like that means no teams really think he's worth that much....

[Cap'n Piranha]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Seems like that means no teams really think he's worth that much....

Including, apparently, the A's.

[jmlease1]

13 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

For those of you complaining about the Twins not beating this offer, remember that we're four days from Opening Day. It's likely the A's settled for this price and wouldn't have accepted this return a week or more ago.

And I can't really blame the Twins for growing impatient and moving in a different direction. I said it last week that I believe the A's were over-playing their hand and this return and timing only reinforces that belief.

I think this is right. If the A's were always looking for a higher quality prospect (especially pitching) from the twins, then I can't blame the twins for not flinging the vault open for Manaea. We're hearing from sources that the twins might already prefer to have Josh Winder right now making starts over Manaea, so they certainly weren't going to trade Winder's whole career for Manaea.

I don't think it's a bad return on Manaea for the A's; it's closer to what the market should be on a starter that's on his last year of team control.

[tony&rodney]

Bassitt was worth trading for, Manaea not so much really. I like Winder to fill adequately. Montas is a goal at the correct exchange. He has great stuff and was amazing lat year. He has only had one successful year thus far. Montas has a greater ceiling than Gray but a lower floor.