Can Byron Buxton Pass Mike Trout As Baseball’s Best Center Fielder?

[Cody Christie]

Mike Trout is arguably the best player to put on a baseball uniform for the current generation. Now, Byron Buxton has the opportunity to shift his career arc and put his name among baseball’s best center fielders. 

 

MLB Network counts down baseball’s best players as the season starts while also naming the top players at each position. MLB has ranked Trout as the best center fielder, but other players are coming for his crown. Buxton was the 10th-ranked centerfielder entering the 2021 season, and he has risen to the third overall behind Trout and George Springer. Buxton had the highest jump among players that were on the 2021 list. 

Buxton’s rise ties to his 2021 performance, where he proved that he could be one of baseball’s most valuable players. His month of April 2021 was one of the best offensive months in team history as he posted a 1.363 OPS. He was limited to 61 games for the year but accumulated 4.5 WAR. His defense also puts him in elite company as the Twins now have one of baseball’s best up-the-middle defenses. 

Trout has been otherworldly during his professional career as he has averaged over 9.0 WAR in every season where he’s played at least 130 games. Last season, injuries limited Trout to 36 games, but he still posted a 1.090 OPS. He’s clearly on a path to Cooperstown. He has won three MVPs, been a nine-time All-Star, and won eight Silver Slugger Awards. So, are Buxton and Trout even in the same conversation regarding on-field production?

The answer is "It’s complicated." At the beginning of their pro careers, both Buxton and Trout were considered the best prospect in baseball. Trout flew through the minors and reached the MLB level as a teenager. Buxton had a few more bumps in the road, but he still compiled some tremendous numbers in the minors.  

Over their last 162 games, Buxton and Trout have very comparable numbers. Buxton has hit .281 with 41 home runs, a .916 OPS, and 19 stolen bases. Trout has hit .294 with 53 home runs, a 1.047 OPS, and seven stolen bases. Another thing to consider is entering his age-29 season while Trout is a year older. Trout debuted as a 19-year old, while Buxton took a little longer and debuted as a 21-year old. 

Buxton is still among baseball’s best defensive center fielders. Last season he had an Outs Above Average in the 94th percentile. This spring, there were some rumblings of the Angels pushing Trout out of centerfield. He is staying in the position to start 2022, but he hasn’t been worth more than one out above average since 2018. It seems likely for Trout to get shifted to a corner outfield spot in the years ahead. 

Health is the key for Buxton to be considered in the same conversation as Trout. Minnesota can utilize various strategies to keep Buxton healthy, including his outfield positioning and giving him rest days. The organization has already tried some of these strategies, so it might come down to him being a little luckier in 2022. 

With Buxton signed long-term, Twins fans are excited about what he can mean to the team. An entire season of Buxton may be one of the most valuable seasons for any player in team history. Trout is still baseball’s best center fielder, but like a liner to center, Buxton looks to be closing the gap. 

What will it take for Buxton to be considered baseball’s best center fielder? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[The Mad King]

Simply stay healthy for the entire season and play the way he has the past 3 seasons.

[miracleb]

Oh boy.....3 for 3 yesterday and suddenly let's compare him to Trout?  Agree with the Mad King.......let's play more than 100 games this year.....and then we can talk.

[Whitey333]

I'm sorry but comparing Buxton to Trout is ridiculous.  It's so sad because he's hurt a lot.  He needs to play a full season.  To me at least 140 games and 500 plate appearances to see what he can do.  Labeling him as one of the great center fielders is a slap on the face to players like Trout who are able to stay on the field (except last year) and produce year after year.  These articles claiming Buxton to be a superstar are nearly moronic.  A few good offensive months in a SEVEN year career does not make you great.  Defensively yes absolutely.  He is maybe the best.  We will never know how great he may have been without all the injuries.  Here's hoping he can have a great season in 2022 and beyond.

[cHawk]

He needs to play 130+ games and produce at the level that he did at the beginning of last year.

[Karbo]

Yes I do believe Buxton is every bit as good as Trout, EXCEPT, he can't stay healthy. Some is not his fault. He was a bit of a late bloomer, but the last couple years his offense has come around. If he can stay in the lineup for 140-150 games I think he may very well be in the MVP race, and if he hits like he did last year, it may be no contest. Buxton's defense in CF is better than Trouts, so lets just see his bat and health catch up!

[RJA]

I think Karbo hit the nail on the head.  As for talent, I think he is an equal to Trout, potentially maybe better.  Defensively, I am old enough to have seen Mays play CF on trips to SF, and he was the best defensive CF I had ever seen until Buxton.  Buxton is as good, maybe even a tad better than Mays, defensively.  Offensively, he has the potential to be better than Trout but we can't say that until he performs consistently over a period of time. Let's hope this is the year.  Actually, we have two generational talents on the team this year--Buxton and Correa.  They will be fun to watch.

[gil4]

24 minutes ago, Karbo said:

Yes I do believe Buxton is every bit as good as Trout, EXCEPT, he can't stay healthy. Some is not his fault. 

And some definitely is. 

He needs to learn how to make catches at the wall without killing himself. He had another one early in spring training that made the ESPN highlights, but it showed he still hasn't learned.  If he keeps hitting walls while in awkward positions, he will keep getting hurt.

[mikelink45]

I know it is every fans wish, but the few short seasons of production are a tease rather than a promise.  He has all the talent in the world, but let's wait a few seasons before we put him in the Trout, Mays category.  In the meantime I hope he is both healthy and productive and then the debate will be settled by him!

[Drew]

Mike Trout is inarguably the best player to put on a baseball uniform for the current generation. Fixed that for you. Also, love Buxton, favorite Non-Kirby Twin ever. But cmon. 

[Doctor Gast]

Tool for tool right now I say Buxton is better, only difference is Trout is more durable. If they play comparitively the same amount of games Buxton wins in my book.

[old nurse]

Buxton is 2 years younger that Trout. In the next 2 years he can make up the difference in WAR between them one could say he is the greater player for CF.  As far as best current player for CF, somebody will come along when Trout starts to fade. The what if will be what defines Buxton

[RJA]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

I know it is every fans wish, but the few short seasons of production are a tease rather than a promise.  He has all the talent in the world, but let's wait a few seasons before we put him in the Trout, Mays category.  In the meantime I hope he is both healthy and productive and then the debate will be settled by him!

Good point that he has not proven himself over time.  Hopefully, that will come.  But as to your Mays reference, he is at least as good as Mays defensively, and maybe better.  I am not suggesting that he is as accomplished as Mays from a complete player or career standpoint, but his defensive skills are as good as I have seen in my many, many years of watching centerfielders.  As you suggest, only time will tell if his career and longevity will justify putting him in either Trout or Mays category as complete players.

[mikelink45]

Just now, RJA said:

Good point that he has not proven himself over time.  Hopefully, that will come.  But as to your Mays reference, he is at least as good as Mays defensively, and maybe better.  I am not suggesting that he is as accomplished as Mays from a complete player or career standpoint, but his defensive skills are as good as I have seen in my many, many years of watching centerfielders.  As you suggest, only time will tell if his career and longevity will justify putting him in either Trout or Mays category as complete players.

I still have a difficult time putting Trout ahead of Mays.  But yes, longevity is part of Mays' resume - he was always a CF.

Let's look at their accomplishments:

Mays 156.1 WAR, lifetime 301/384/557  660 HR before the PEDs His OPS+ before he left the Giants - 157+ (21 years) 3293 hits and 23 years. 

Trout  76.1 WAR 305/419/583 310 HRs 1419 hits 176 OPS+ 11 years.  Now he needs to maintain this for 12 more years to match Willie.

Buxton 16.2 WAR 248/299/461 401 hits, 70 HRs OPS+ 102 for 7 years.  Why is this even a debate? Check in 10 years from now if Byron stays healthy.  I love his play, but right now he is on the outside looking in on this discussion. 

[Lonestar]

Trout is no longer more durable and only plays CF because he pushed back on having Brandon Marsh (a markedy better defender) take over.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-positional-power-rankings-center-field/

[RJA]

6 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I still have a difficult time putting Trout ahead of Mays.  But yes, longevity is part of Mays' resume - he was always a CF.

Let's look at their accomplishments:

Mays 156.1 WAR, lifetime 301/384/557  660 HR before the PEDs His OPS+ before he left the Giants - 157+ (21 years) 3293 hits and 23 years. 

Trout  76.1 WAR 305/419/583 310 HRs 1419 hits 176 OPS+ 11 years.  Now he needs to maintain this for 12 more years to match Willie.

Buxton 16.2 WAR 248/299/461 401 hits, 70 HRs OPS+ 102 for 7 years.  Why is this even a debate? Check in 10 years from now if Byron stays healthy.  I love his play, but right now he is on the outside looking in on this discussion. 

Thanks for the response.  I agree with your analyis, but I never compared Trout to Mays or Buxton to Mays or Trout as accomplished players.  I am not debating that.  My only point, and I stand by it, is that I have seen enough of Buxton in the field to say he has better skills than Trout in CF, and at least as good if not better skills than Mays in CF.  Do you think Buxton's skills are equal to Mays based on seeing them both play?  I happen to think so.

[mikelink45]

10 minutes ago, RJA said:

Thanks for the response.  I agree with your analyis, but I never compared Trout to Mays or Buxton to Mays or Trout as accomplished players.  I am not debating that.  My only point, and I stand by it, is that I have seen enough of Buxton in the field to say he has better skills than Trout in CF, and at least as good if not better skills than Mays in CF.  Do you think Buxton's skills are equal to Mays based on seeing them both play?  I happen to think so.

Byron has more speed, but so far has not had the control that Mays had.  Mays always seemed to know where he was and when he made spectacular catches he was not in danger of bodily harm.   Byron this spring looks like the batter we all hoped he would be.  He is sensational, but so was Mays.  In Mays' 1954 MVP season his line was 345/411/667/1.078 and he was 23.  Byron was 27 last year when he had his best line 301/358/647/1.005.  To me the comparison is a long way from equal.  

I understand what you are asking and I just cannot make the full comparison.  Mays is what I wanted for the last seven years and last year was the first hint at Buxton's ceiling.  However at 28 he is already reaching a point where, like Trout, his speed will continue to diminish.  I do think that CF is Buxton's much longer than Trout. 

You can look at Byron's stats at age 27 and then you compare to Trout after his age 27 year. 305/419/591/1.000 are his totals.

Mays after his age 27 year 320/393/627/1.021 - these are the stats after Mays came back from military service in 1954. 

 

[D.C Twins]

Yes, he can.... and he will IF he stays healthy.

Buckle up buttercups, he is going to have one special season.... IF he stays healthy....(just put that at the end of any Buck related post, kinda like 'in bed' after the end of any fortune cookie saying

[Eris]

1 hour ago, Lonestar said:

Trout is no longer more durable and only plays CF because he pushed back on having Brandon Marsh (a markedy better defender) take over.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-positional-power-rankings-center-field/

I agree with you. The Angels would be a better team if Trout moved to LF. While there is no question that Trout is the best offensive player of this generation he has become an average to below average defensive CF. In outs above average from 2016 to 2021, Trout has -3 OAA (worse than 40th on this list). 
 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/outs_above_average?type=Fielder&startYear=2016&endYear=2021&split=no&team=&range=year&min=q&pos=8&roles=&viz=hide

 

Just imagine how good Buxton would be if he was on the field more than half the games  

 

[Mark G]

3 hours ago, gil4 said:

And some definitely is. 

He needs to learn how to make catches at the wall without killing himself. He had another one early in spring training that made the ESPN highlights, but it showed he still hasn't learned.  If he keeps hitting walls while in awkward positions, he will keep getting hurt.

I think that this post is the one I agree with the most, and the one that scares me the most.  Buck can make the catches into the walls, the diving ones where he stretches himself out 110%, and the ones where he takes over for the corner guys, almost crashing into them.  He can do it all.  But he can't do it without getting hurt.  He has always had to choose, and he has always known it, between the spectacular and the safe, and we have seen the choices.  As for some of it not being his fault, I guess that is partly true.  He has fouled a ball off his foot and broke a bone.  He gets hit by a pitch in the hand and breaks a bone.  He runs the bases and pulls something, etc., etc., etc.  We have had to accept the fact he is fragile, physically.  In the prime of his life this may change, and if it does we can keep this debate going......and going......and going.  Let's hope we do.  

And let's hope the offense peaks as well.  We talk about last year, but he was over .400 when he got hurt, and he finished at, what?  .306 or there abouts?  That means he hit a fair amount below .300 the last weeks of the season to fall that far.  And as I mentioned in a different article, he had 19 homers and 23 doubles, but only had 32 RBI's to go with all that slugging percentage.  And how does he utilize his speed?  He needs to bunt more to loosen up the defense, and he only attempted 10 stolen bases last year.  For someone who can do it all, he doesn't seem to want to do it all.  He wants the flashy defense and the power numbers, not the bunt singles, the walks, the stolen bases, and all the little things that manufacture runs (you know, all the things that put Rod Carew in the HOF).   I am hoping (and rooting) for the complete player we know he can be.  Until then, Say Hey, Kid!

[Joey P]

Buck has a chance to make a push at Cooperstown if he can stay healthy during this contract. 

[AlwaysinModeration]

Isn’t this is age 28 season?

[ashbury]

The simple answer to the headline question is yes, he plausibly could, as opposed to the 0.0000001% chance that you might assign all but a handful of players.  Likely? No.  But Trout's over 30 and you have to factor in the chance that his decline phase has begun, while Buxton is more than 2 years younger.  Someone will pass Trout for the current honor, someday, and if it's soon, Buxton has the chops to be the one, if he stays injury free and also demonstrates he's actually reached a new level of sustainable performance.   A 1% chance is certainly a lot more plausible than 0.0000001%.

If the question were rephrased or reinterpreted to mean can Buxton reach Trout's extended peak for multiple seasons, I'm back to the 0.0000001% range of confidence.  That ship has sailed.

[adorduan]

He wont be as good as Trout until he learns to take a walk.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Buxton can become baseball’s best CF when Trout moves to another position

[Einheri]

Buck needs to perform well and play several more seasons of injury-free seasons before we can even begin to compare.

But… er… Yes…?

[Dman]

6 hours ago, adorduan said:

He wont be as good as Trout until he learns to take a walk.

I don't think teams are that interested in walking Buxton as a walk given his steal potential is essentially a double.  He generally gets good pitches to hit because a walk equals a double and the worst he can do to a pitcher at the plate then is essentially a Home run.  A walk practically puts him in scoring position so they might as well go after him and force him to work his way on.

Maybe that will change given how many Home Runs he has been hitting but from what I have seen they go right after him. 

[Twodogs]

Trout has been hurt quite a bit lately.  But he is still a .305 career hitter with a .419 career on base percentage.  He has over 300 home runs and almost 1500 hits plus he has over 200 stolen bases and he's only 2 years older than Buck.  Trout won the rookie of the year, 9 x all star, 8 time silver slugger 3 x MVP.  If Buck were to become an All Star and win the silver slugger every year of his contract he still wouldn't catch Trout.  Man I would love to see Buck win the silver slugger the next 7 years straight because that would mean the twins would be doing really good.  But as much as I want it, I don't see Buck passing up Trout.  Trout is probably almost a hall of famer if he retired now.

[stringer bell]

But, but ……isn’t the question here who iOS the best center fielder right now? I’ll grant that Buxton has miles to go to catch up to Trout’s career and Trout has a +95% chance of having a better career, but I think Buxton has a legitimate chance to supplant Trout as the best position player in 2022. All he has to do is perform like he did last year over the course of a full season (of course something he’s never done). 

[peterb18]

Personally, the player of the past that most closely resembles Mike Trout is Mickey Mantle. Over the years when a new phenom would appear on the scene the sport writers would usually say, “he might be the next Mickey Mantle”. The Mick was one of the fastest players in the league, hit the ball the farthest, and won the triple crown. However, I do think that Buxton is in that category and if he stays healthy he could. take over as the best center fielder in the game. And most experts rank Mays as the best center fielder of all-time……which I agree with.