Grading the Twins Offseason

[TwinsFaninthe DR]

I have been a Twins fan for all my 62 years.  I was a fan of them even in the 70s and early 80s when they were terrible.  This post season I read they signed Buxton to a $100 million contract.  Then I woke up one morning and read that they signed the top FA shortstop to a top dollar contract so he will be making in the area the same money as Mike Trout.  I also see that they sign some veteran pitchers like Gray and Archer to contracts.  They also signed some veteran relievers to minor league contracts.  Also in the last season they trade Cruz for some top pitching prospects and Berrios for some top infield prospects.  All I can say is OMG this is not the Twins management as I remember them.  What has happened to them that they seem like they are doing what top teams do.  They actually are signing some top players with top money and developing prospects.   Yes if I lived in the Twin cities I would be going to a lot of Saints games to watch these guys play.    But reading some of the comments I see some fans here are giving the management Ds and Fs.  I guess everyone has their opinion.  Grades can be relative but I will give the Twins management congrats for what they are doing and say keep it up.   It has not been the Twins management I have grown up and am used to and it makes me so very happy to see.

[Monkeypaws]

I'd give them an A+.

Haven't seen much lockout bitterness since the Correa signing.

[Brandon]

9 hours ago, Yawn Gardenhose said:

Compared to last year's Opening Day roster, the Twins have upgraded at shortstop, downgraded at third base, downgraded at catcher, and downgraded at starting pitching. If Sanchez gets a good chunk of DH at-bats, that's a downgrade at DH, but I'll give that one a wash. Overall I don't think the Correa signing offsets the downgrades at the other positions. If Buxton can stay healthy, and I don't know why that should be expected, I see 75-77 wins out of the team. If Buxton is as injured as he was last year, I don't see much movement from the 73 wins from last year. And that's factoring in the benefit of playing in the worst division in baseball. So I'll give them a C, as these moves collectively don't move the needle much. 

I dont think 3B is as big of a downgrade as you do.  Donaldson only played what 60% of the games there.  Didn't Arreaz get a lot of starts there?  he is returning.  Urshula is better defensively and less on offense.  at DH its a downgrade depending on who is rotating in.  Sanchez will still catch a lot of games.  and C is downgraded but by how much exactly.  Jefferson is the better defensive C just not near as good offensively as Garver.  Sanchez can cover most of Sanchez power.  He just won't hit for average.  though i suspect his average will improve because he will get more rest since he will only catch about 35-40% of the games.  With Buxton being available in 80% of the games is a huge bonus as will having correa all season.  THe offense will also have Killeroff all season and Miranda could get called up and make an impact.  I think our offense will be fine.  

Pitching still has issues however.  .....

We could win 85+ games and be a playoff contender.  there are 12 teams now.  

[AlwaysinModeration]

Let’s see, grading the off-season?

1.  Byron Buxton was not traded.  Instead, he will be a Twin his whole career.  On a below-market, incentive-laden deal, betting on himself to be healthy and productive. 

2. Screwed the Yankees out of signing the best free agent in the league.  Oh, and signed him themselves; one year, in his 27 year old season, MVP level player on both sides of the ball. I repeat, signed a free agent, MVP candidate in his prime at the most important position, for only a one-year deal.  (When has that ever happened, not just the Twins, for any team?)

3. Traded 1.5 years of Jose Berrios plus Chase Petty for two years of Sonny Gray plus Austin Martin and Simeon Woods-Richardson.

4. Took fliers on Chris Archer, Gary Sanchez, Dylan Bundy, and Gio Urshela. All have been good in the past.  These are lottery tickets, but one - or more -could feasibly hit.

5.  (This should probably be 1 or 2).  
Did NOT trade any top prospects.  Lewis, Martin, Winder, Balazovic, Miranda, Canterino and Duran look poised to contribute significantly to the team in the near future / for the next half a dozen years, with none of their paths blocked by long term obstacles.

My grade: A resounding A.

[DocBauer]

I think we have to remember, based on a few previous comments, that "incomplete" is accepted for now for the Twins, and ALL teams. Grades will be re-visted again at the end of the season. One very important factor involved with all of this speculation and re-tool is the Twins have some really, really nice young position players ready, or nearly ready, that might not factor in to the day one roster. And more than that, they have a NUMBER of arms ready or just about ready to contribute in the rotation and pen. In fact, we have so many young arms, we could end up with a numbers crunch next year as things stand now as there will be others that will have to be added. So we have to remember the FO is finally/hopefully about to deliver promises of a re-vamped pitching program the next year or two, along with promised sustainability for the franchise as a whole.

Me being me, no way I don't address this OP in detail now that I have time to do so. Let's re-visit what's been done so far. And this is real and honest stuff gang.

THE GOOD:

1] Locking up one of the greatest talents for the bulk of his career on a  "cheap" deal that increases if he's healthy and productive. Butts in the seats, publicity, winning, great numbers, ownership will GLADLY pay Buxton his incentives if he earns them. We're talking about one of the top 5 overall talents in the game.

2] The trade of Petty for Gray was brilliant. Hey, I don't like the idea of moving that talented and young of an arm. You want to dream, right? To the Red's credit, they are re-bulding in their own way, and are willing to take a risk here. And maybe Petty stuns and turns out to be really good. But history is WAY on the Twins side here for a really good SP for 2yrs, maybe more if re-signed.

3] I don't dislike Donaldson in any way, except for being overly brash at times. His bat is still high quality. His range has decreased, but he sure can "pick it" at 3B for what he gets to, and the arm is still viable. I didn't WANT the Twins to move him for all he could bring. But part of moving him, by initial thoughts, was also adding a prospect potentially, and eating a portion of his contract. I didn't like that and questioned a true value outcome. Being able to lose his entire remaining contract was something I didn't see happening. And yes, it cost us a quality defensive catcher in Rorvedt with at least SOME power/offensive potential. But in the long run, this probably turns out to be a win, not just for the Correa signing, but potential financial flexibility going forward. While I was ABSOLUTELY not looking to "dump" Donaldson, he does carry a certain risk

4] Urshela is, at least, intriguing, as an addition. He's a quality defensive 3B, an OK SS cover player, and he has bat potential. My general attitude is...based on other roster moves we get to in a moment...he's a fine placeholder who could be an outstanding 10th man in a month or so to allow for Miranda to take over. I said something in a different post that when you look at the ultimate delta of things...finances, production, future value, etc...if we get a combination of the 2019-2020 Urshela, we fleeced the Yankees. If we get the 2021 version of Urshela, combined with Miranda plus financial considerations,  even still including Arraez as part of the infield equation, we probably still win, overall, unless Donaldson suddenly achieves MVP consideration. 

5] I am NOT wanting to include Sanchez here. I have nothing against him. I believe he DOES provide some experience as a player who has been there, done that. AT WORST, he's that BTDT player who can "play" at catcher and has power and a career OB% above .300 which not everyone can say. I can live with him as the #2 catcher for a year with hopes and prayers that a new team, new approaches, less pressure, new coaches, a familiarity with players on the roster, and a reported willingness to learn/grow/adapt will make him a better catcher...at least to a medium level...and MAYBE he learns to hit to an at least an acceptable degree again. 

6] Correa! There is nothing to be said here except for that. He's 6th for the time line. But this signing, even if for 1yr, changes 2022. And it also changes the face of the entire Twins franchise in a higher degree than the Donaldson signing did.

7] So far, agree or disagree with what they've done, they have moved only Petty, and nobody else. The system is still deep. Ryan and Ober SURPRISED everyone and bring optimism. NOT exactly excited by Bundy and Archer, but they absolutely could surprise, at least one of them. Hopefully! And the system in still in place for now. And honestly, begrudgingly, there is hope for at least one of these two to be at least solid.

THE BAD:

1] DESPITE  a plethora of arms in the system acquired via draft and trade and filled with potential, the FO KNEW they were a year behind their initial plan for all their arms. And if they didn't want to make a HUGE 5-7yr deal for someone, OK. BUT there were so many arms available via FA they could have signed SOMEONE for around $13-15M for around 3yrs on the vast market available to KEEP all prospects while KNOWING you had $ available to spend even if you couldn't move Donaldson  So despite all that, massive opportunity available to you, you just "gave up" and settled on nothing but Bundy?

Tell me how that limited vision looks now with all that has taken place?  Wouldn't it be much smarter in the future to identify the ONE guy/position you NEED and be aggressive and THEN play the slow card? Or is that just to obvious to fit in to modern day alanytics?

How nice might our rotation look with Gray and maybe DeScalfini or Cobb on a cheap 2-3yr deal for around $12-14M instead of Bundy and Archer fliers? And that's assuming we aren't just banking on our prospects and Ryan and Ober

Is Pineda at $5M a worse risk than Archer?

However it ultimately works out, I think the FO BLEW a chance to add a quality SP via $ versus prospect capital, to front the rotation along with Gray. They SHOULD have been smart early and just spent some damn money they could afford.

2]NOBODY in their right might mind, was hopefull enough to expect Celestinto to be ready for the 4th OF spot after being thrushed in to CF job, or 4th OF job, so early in 2021 when EVERYONE got hurt. It doesn't matter how well he responded when going back to St Paul to finish the season. He needs time to develop. He could have a good to great future. But he's just not ready. He needs a little more time. His talent and production at AAA should fill us with hope. Doesn't mean he's ready. Rooker has been given opportunity,  hasn't taken hold of it yet. Maybe he will. Thought he would after 2020, but it seems he's digressed since.  He may be on a short lease,  but he probably gets 1 more shot before being traded or designated. . Garlick is a filler kind of player, not even on the 40 man. And I think we all know Celestino, Larnach, and Martin are important pieces of the future OF. And ALL of them could  be part of 2022, especially 2023 and beyond.

And it's OK if Gordon and Kepler back up Buxton for days off in 2022. The Twins FO didn't have to sign a true CF 4th OF option. But there was NOBODY to sign or trade for on the cheap to just be a decent bat, decent corner defensive OF to spell Kepler and AK? HUGE mistake, IMO.

3] Joe Smith is a solid and probably undervalued signing. And he might be a "Clippard" kind of pitcher. And Alcala might be ready to step forward. Duran might be even better, but I'd rather see him working in the Saints rotation. And MAYBE he will do a Santana conversion to the rotation.  OR, maybe he's just destined for the pen. And maybe, for now, Smith is really the smart play. But it sure seemed there were a few quality arms out there that didn't break the bank that could be better to add to Rogers and others to raise the bullpen floor. Again, the FO better be right.

4] This whole Sanchez being a primary DH is WRONG unless he re-disovers himself, or Roccco just figures crap out. For some reason, Rocco falls in love with certain players being in certain spots. And he has to grow and learn from that. And if he can't, the he's the wrong guy to lead our team. Because there are some things SO OBVIOUS that if you can't adjust and figure it out, maybe you aren't the right guy.

I give the FO a B÷ and agree with Ted's OP overall.

The bitch is, if our FO was a bit smarter, a bit more smarter and daring, we'd be looking at a solid A to A÷ if they weren't so damn conservative.