What the Chris Archer Signing Does for the Twins Rotation

[SkyBlueWaters]

4 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

My biggest worry is if Bundy and Archer pull a Happ and Shoemaker and we hang on to them too long.  If they look lousy cut them and move on. 

I've thought about this, too. My problem with Happ and Shoemaker last year is that they were presented to us as the fix. We supposedly had what we needed with them. 

I don't think the FO has the same mindset now. Even if they did, from what I see in the media, the common perception is that the rotation still needs help. Their feet will be held to the fire a bit more. Deservedly so.

I agree with those speculating that the A's are asking a king's ransom. So the Archer signing might be a good countermove. He can eat some innings early in the year while we see where we are at. Which of our young arms make solid progress.

Also, some teams may struggle, and more arms may be available as the season progresses.

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, Brandon said:

I have him at 15 starts and 65 innings.  If he gets to 22 starts expect around 90 to 100 innings tops.  He won’t average 5 innings per start as he won’t be ramped up to go beyond 5 for a while and innings limit to protect his arm after so few innings the last few years.  He will likely get piggybacked by Jax to get 6/7 innings From the pair.  Will be interesting to see how it plays out.  

I'm probably a bit optimistic on the innings, but I do see him as someone who can go deeper in games if healthy. I don't think he's going to be a 3-4 inning combo guy, and they'll try to stretch him out if his shoulder can hack it.

[se7799]

3 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I forgot to add JT Chargois - 6 - 1, 1.5 WAR, 2.52 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, in 56 games for the Rays to the list of pitcher that did not click under the current leadership. 

He was hurt almost the entire time he was here.  I get your point, but noway we could have protected him from the rule V draft a few years ago.

[GoMNTwins]

While calling him a depth pitcher is accurate, in this particular case the word depth is completely false. Depth implies that you already had at least the minimum of 5 in a 5 man rotation.

[dex8425]

6 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

 

Kyle Gibson went from a disappointment to an all-star when he left.

 

The Rangers just made Gibby an early free agency offer that seemed very generous for a guy with huge illness question marks who had barely pitched the year he signed. I would've loved Gibson back on MN but not for 3 yrs/30m. Obviously since he got that contract other teams valued him. He was developed in MN. Far from the worst first round pick pitcher in Twins history. Kohl Stewart was much worse.

Every team has pitchers they let go and they catch on elsewhere. We have picked up several waiver wire claims who have turned out well, Wisler being one of them. Belisle was another. I'm sure Wes' coaching methods work with some guys and don't work with others. 

[Brandon]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

I'm probably a bit optimistic on the innings, but I do see him as someone who can go deeper in games if healthy. I don't think he's going to be a 3-4 inning combo guy, and they'll try to stretch him out if his shoulder can hack it.

I think the lower innings total will be to protect his arm.  He hasn't really pitched in 2 years.  Asking him to pitch in 25 to 30 games and pitch 150-180 innings seems like alot to ask out of that arm of his.  I suspect he will start the season with 4 or 5 starts in the 3-4 innings per start then go up to 5 and occasionally 6 innings.  I do think they will limit his innings so he does not go over 110-120 for the season or more accurately they will probably limit alot of his starts to 80-85 pitches and see how deep he can get into the games.  They will treat him the same as they treated Ober last season.  

[PDX Twin]

4 hours ago, dex8425 said:

Far from the worst first round pick pitcher in Twins history. Kohl Stewart was much worse.

Are we forgetting Tyler Jay? Worse even than Stewart, and less excuse because he was a college pick.

[AceWrigley]

From the National Library of Medicine on TOS and pitching performance: 

Conclusion: 74% of professional pitchers who undergo surgical intervention for TOS are able to return to play at the MLB level. With regards to performance, the majority of metrics were unchanged from prior to surgery, indicating return at a similar functional level.

Pitching metrics demonstrated that pitcher ERA remained inferior postoperatively compared to baseline preoperative performance (3.66 vs 4.50, p = 0.03). Fastball velocity (p = 0.94) and strike percentage (p = 0.50) were equivalent to pre-injury performance.

Me: "Similar" functional level, but still reduced as far as I read it. The ERA difference seems significantly worse. Reports say Chris Archer is a "smart pitcher" and if he can figure out how to be effective post TOS , then he can help the Twins some.

[h2oface]

When your MO is to wait and be flexible and see what happens, very rarely an agent comes to you with a premade opportunity like Correa, but mostly, you are left with the bottom of the barrel and have to settle for pitching like an old Archer (or a Bundy, regardless of age), that is a hope and a prayer to perform even average, again. I hope the prayers work.

[DocBauer]

Honestly, I HATE doing the whole retro thing because ultimately it doesn't matter. But I think we have to at this point to fully appreciate and conceptualize where we are at. The FO wanted to move on from the Donaldson deal for the future of the team. They didn't know if they could, but they wanted to. It was in the best interest for the team, if not both parties. The original signing wasn't stupid, it made sense at the time, but it was also time to move on, if possible.

The bitch is, even if "unknowing" whether they could move Donaldson or not, the FO knew they still had a good ballplayer on hand and NEED for SP. They also knew they had $ to spend on a SP regardless of Donaldson. The didn't HAVE to make a 5-7yr deal. There were several, quality SP available on 3-4yr deals that could keep our team in contention while still working the system pre and post lockout. It didn't take a rocket science expert to realize the time was ripe to strike for just a solid, quality #2 type pitcher that wouldn't break the bank, with hopes for additional moves beyond the lockout.

An "F" grade that turns in to a "D+" for brining in Bundy. And that grade jumps to a strong "C" and maybe even better if we get some combination of the Baltimore Bundy and the 2020 version of him for 2022. 

What does Archer bring? The same thing as Bundy. 

Every year an arm either figures it out, or gets healthy enough to be what they were, or could have always been. The Twins have TWO of those arms right now, hoping to find themselves again. If ONE of them does this, combined with Gray and Ober and Ryan, the Twins could really surprise. 

I blame the FO for not being aggressive enough to sign ONE ARM early that was better than Bundy. But I have to also applaud them for signing a "come back" arm that could have real surprise potential. What both Bundy and Archer provide, beyond hope, is a couple of experienced arms who can "hold the fort" in the short term to give Winder, Balazovic, Sands, SWR, and others time to get ready. Hell, a fully healthy Canterino could blow past everyone and be up sometime in 2022.

So Archer and Bundy have the ability to raise the floor, and one of them could raise the ceiling. At worst, they can provide time. And I don't blame the Twins for over paying to Oakland, or anyone else at this point. NOTE that so far NOBODY has been willing to give the A's,Red's, Marlins, etc, what they are asking.

This offense could be great. There is real potential for the pen. There are some serious arms about to join Ober and Ryan in the rotation as well as the pen. This team should be ready to compete. I'm just hoping like heck we get a surprise and maybe a surprise deal that doesn't hurt too much to push us over the top.

[wabene]

6 hours ago, dex8425 said:

The Rangers just made Gibby an early free agency offer that seemed very generous for a guy with huge illness question marks who had barely pitched the year he signed. I would've loved Gibson back on MN but not for 3 yrs/30m. Obviously since he got that contract other teams valued him. He was developed in MN. Far from the worst first round pick pitcher in Twins history. Kohl Stewart was much worse.

Every team has pitchers they let go and they catch on elsewhere. We have picked up several waiver wire claims who have turned out well, Wisler being one of them. Belisle was another. I'm sure Wes' coaching methods work with some guys and don't work with others. 

Not to mention Gibby's first season in Texas was a train wreck. He may finally have nibbled his way to some success!

[dougd]

I don't see where being "stretched out" equates to innings pitched in exhibition games, especially this year.

[Whitey333]

The biggest weakness the Twins had coming into spring training was lack of quality starting pitching.  It still is the biggest weakness by far on this team!!  The Archer signing does very little for me.  Could work out but probably won't.  We finished near the bottom in all of MLB in pitching last year.  This does nothing to change that. The jury is still out on this team contending.  This is not a major league pitching staff at the moment.  It appears no more changes are coming before the start of the season.  We appear to have good offense and defense but not much pitching, again!  We spent 35 mil on a superstar shortstop.  If this pitching staff is what we are left with, then the Correa signing is confusing and maybe a waste of resources.  Unless of course the great Correa can pitch lol.

[Karbo]

I can't help but wonder if the Twins would have cut bait quicker last year on Shoe and Happ if they didn't get off to such a horrible start out of the gate. The team was buried by the end of the 6th week of the season last year.

[twinfan]

While I would rather have Pineda, Archer could be a nice surprise if he can start 22 games and win 10. His health is the big question and he hasn't had much of a team behind him recently. I don't like the incentives deal since the team can control that to not have to pay him and that could cause hard feelings. If Archer doesn't do well, we still have some good young arms to count on. I like Archer who is a local, central NC product whom I saw in high school and at Durham briefly.

[Jacksson]

This signing just doesn't seem like a realistic move.  I certainly hope that multiple Twins personnel actually saw Archer pitch BEFORE the contract was offered.  Considering recent performance and the TOS, the 3.5 MM guaranty  seems like a MASSIVE overpay.. REALLY, 2.75 MM this year and a 10 MM option for 2023 ???  Seems like CRAZY terms to me - greatly benefiting Mr Archer as opposed to the Twins.   Should have been more oriented towards incentives and that 2023 option price is totally unrealistic.   Archer must have one hell of an agent.  I'd say this was another (like Correa) one and done, but I seriously doubt that Archer will make it through the "ONE".

[dex8425]

26 minutes ago, Jacksson said:

This signing just doesn't seem like a realistic move.  I certainly hope that multiple Twins personnel actually saw Archer pitch BEFORE the contract was offered.  Considering recent performance and the TOS, the 3.5 MM guaranty  seems like a MASSIVE overpay.. REALLY, 2.75 MM this year and a 10 MM option for 2023 ???  Seems like CRAZY terms to me - greatly benefiting Mr Archer as opposed to the Twins.   Should have been more oriented towards incentives and that 2023 option price is totally unrealistic.   Archer must have one hell of an agent.  I'd say this was another (like Correa) one and done, but I seriously doubt that Archer will make it through the "ONE".

Articles said the Twins viewed his trackman data. In fact, the pitch data is actually on Archer's IG, so they definitely saw all his stuff beforehand. 

[Reptevia]

What does it do for the rotation?  It adds one more guy to compete for the 5th starter job. The Twins are starting the season with a #3 as the ace and four #4-5 guys. Unfortunately, I think they are done. I think they took a flyer on Archer after the trade market was ridiculously expensive. If they’re close, get a guy at deadline.