What the Chris Archer Signing Does for the Twins Rotation

[Ted Schwerzler]

Despite rumors linking Johnny Cueto to the Twins last week, Minnesota pivoted to former Tampa Bay Rays starter Chris Archer. Inking him to a one-year pact, the Twins now have numerically rounded out their rotation... at least for now.

Having been a fan-favorite link in trades for some time, Chris Archer is no longer the pitcher he once was when he was a two-time All Star with the Tampa Bay Rays. Spending the first six seasons of his career there, the talented righty put up a 3.63 ERA in just shy of 1,000 innings. The Rays flipped him to the Pittsburgh Pirates for both Austin Meadows and Tyler Glasnow. Both have gone on to become mainstays with Tampa, and the Archer trade could understandably be described as the worst trade return in franchise history.

Unfortunately for both Pittsburgh and Archer, it was a mix of ineffectiveness and unavailability. His strikeout rate jumped to 10.7 K/9 during his 172 innings for the Pirates, but his walk and home run rates also jumped by nearly a full digit as well. Pitching just 172 innings with Pittsburgh, Archer underwent surgery for Thoracic Outlet Syndrome in the summer of 2020. Return from shoulder surgeries has been been much less predictable than elbow surgeries. TOS is the same surgery former Minnesota hurler Phil Hughes underwent before he ultimately retired.

He returned to the mound in 2021 as a member of the Rays organization. Archer made five starts and tallied just 19 1/3 innings pitched. His fastball velocity had declined roughly two miles per hour from where it was in 2019, but his 4.66 ERA was buoyed by a 4.26 FIP. It’s a pretty big ask for Minnesota to find the former All-Star arm, but Wes Johnson’s calling card is velocity and they are likely relying on data that suggests more can still be squeezed out. With a $10 million mutual option on the table for year two, it stands to reason Archer believes there’s something left in the tank as well.

In signing with Minnesota, Archer essentially fills the vacancy left by Michael Pineda. Although Archer has been consistently unavailable the past two seasons, there’s hope the lack of mileage on his arm could spring a rebound. The Twins decided to move on from Pineda in that they never contacted him before a deal he inked with divisional foe, Detroit.

Sonny Gray becomes the Twins ace at the top of their rotation. He was acquired in a move to solidify the group, and he brings a package very similar to what Minnesota knows from Jose Berrios. Needing to overhaul the group as a whole, Gray and a depth add or two shouldn’t be considered enough. Archer falls in the latter category, as does the previously signed Dylan Bundy.

For the Twins, challenging the best will still require one of the trades they’ve been connected to being completed. Whether it’s Oakland Athletics pitchers Frankie Montas or Sean Manaea, or it’s a different direction entirely, another arm is necessary. By paying Archer just $3.5 million in guarantees, the deal allows the Twins financial flexibility to make another addition.

A season ago, the Twins needed to bolster the middle of their rotation to strengthen the group as a whole. Matt Shoemaker being a low-ceiling option that completely busted hurt them significantly. Signing Archer and moving someone like Josh Winder, Bailey Ober or Joe Ryan to Triple-A on Opening Day is a strong step towards a better group.

Derek Falvey knows he has a long list of pitching prospects nearly ready for their big-league debut. He also has Ober, who was named the Twins Outstanding Rookie last season and could be hanging onto him as a depth option. By giving the rotation a steadying veteran presence, while also adding at the top, the rotation overhaul is obvious and significantly more sustainable. 

You shouldn’t expect Archer to be anything extraordinary for Minnesota, but that’s not the role he’s being brought in to fill either. A couple of All-Star appearances and postseason exposure to his credit, Archer has seen a thing or two around the game. Expected to hold serve on the back half of the rotation, his floor can still be tested by an incoming wave of talent. The next starter can join Gray at the top while Falvey puts a bow on what will have been the Twins most exciting offseason in history. 

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[Dave The Dastardly]

Personally, not excited about this move. Seen this "magical-fix-for-fading-veteran" schtick one too many times. Would rather put my money on one of our many supposed "prospects" who are clogging up the minors. Time to fish or cut bait.

[Dantes929]

15 minutes ago, Dave The Dastardly said:

Personally, not excited about this move. Seen this "magical-fix-for-fading-veteran" schtick one too many times. Would rather put my money on one of our many supposed "prospects" who are clogging up the minors. Time to fish or cut bait.

Yeah.   I have seen it many times starting with Jack Morris.   Never works out.    Just kidding.    I would prefer going with younger guys as well.  I don't hate this move.   Just don't care for this idea that two more months in the minors is going to make the near ready prospects into ready prospects seems as nebulous as pitch counts and innings limits.

[Trov]

I do not mind the move, as a cheap flier that if he is not healthy or not affective he can be cut, but if he is healthy and can make any kind of return to his prime years he will be a great back of rotation guy.  You are not counting on him to be a main guy.  At this point he is more a possible depth guy that could regain something.  

I will not expect much from him, but who knows.  What worries me most is that he had thoracic outlet syndrome.  I read an article that claims most pitchers that get surgery for this do recover to previous performance prior to surgery, but there has been several big names that had big numbers prior to their surgery and no where near what they did after.  It may be that they were already regressing for other reasons.  

I hope he makes a bounce back and can help us out, but not expecting much from him. 

[Unwinder]

Gritting my teeth and hoping this is a depth/insurance move and more is coming.

If the Twins don't make any more moves, and this is what we've got for 2022, I don't really expect the Twins to seriously contend, but I do expect Twins baseball to be exciting and fun to watch.

On the other hand, I do have a lot of irrational faith in the young arms coming up. After Ober and Ryan's great debuts, I have pretty unrealistic expectations for the next few up.

[Adam Krueger]

Seems like a potential win-win here; if he sucks and he's done, it didn't cost them much to find out. If he can regain even mid-rotation status, $3.5M is a steal and would have to imagine that they would also agree to that second year mutual option as well. I'd still like to see them get one more arm...counting on Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer to both be effective members of the rotation seems a little idealistic.

[Craig Arko]

If we’re lucky, Archer can do what Ervin Santana did.

Okay, very lucky.

Really, really lucky.

[gunnarthor]

I don't mind the move, in a vacuum. But this pitching staff is really bad. Again, it has to be better than last year simply by accident but I have no idea how they are 1400 or so innings out of this group. I like Bundy more than most posters do and Gray is a real pitcher but this looks bad.

That said, let's see what happens before the season starts. Archer in the pen with Montas in the rotation makes things a bit different.

 

[chinmusic]

7 minutes ago, Craig Arko said:

If we’re lucky, Archer can do what Ervin Santana did.

Okay, very lucky.

Really, really lucky.

So first step will be to be busted for illegal substance use?

[Craig Arko]

1 minute ago, chinmusic said:

So first step will be to be busted for illegal substance use?

Hope not, but stranger things have happened.

[PDX Twin]

I guess that the FO perceived a "hair deficit" after Ryan's trim.

[dex8425]

I like the move. We need the depth, bad. If he can pitch 100 innings with an ERA in the 4's this signing will be a huge success. 

[jmlease1]

Whether this move works out will really come down to whether or not Archer is healthy. Because he's decent enough even at his worst to hold down the 5th spot and chew up innings for you in a way that the collective disaster of Happ, Shoemaker, Jax, Dobnak, and Barnes could not last season. (that's 58 starts we gave to guys with ERA's of 6 or more. I'm rounding up on Barnes. Sorry, Charlie)

Also, the only way Ober or Ryan are not in the rotation this season is if they start the season terribly and get sent down to AAA to get back on track. (Which could happen) But there's basically no chance they're not in the rotation on opening day. I also think there's very little chance of completing a deal for Manea or Montas before the season starts, unless Oakland suddenly comes down in price; every indicator right now is they want the sun and the moon and are willing to wait until the deadline to make a move if they don't get it. Fine: I'll play chicken on that one.

My prediction on Archer: 22 starts, 130 innings, ERA around 4.50. Raises the floor, and holds down the fort until more of the next wave are ready. Probably has 2 stints on the IL.

 

[MMMordabito]

I hope I'm wrong, but Archer does nothing for me.  TOS is such a career killer that the odds seem pretty stacked against success here.  

If Winder needs a few starts in St. Paul, so be it.  I'd guess Archer will go the way of Shoemaker in 2021.

[Trov]

10 minutes ago, MMMordabito said:

I hope I'm wrong, but Archer does nothing for me.  TOS is such a career killer that the odds seem pretty stacked against success here.  

If Winder needs a few starts in St. Paul, so be it.  I'd guess Archer will go the way of Shoemaker in 2021.

TOS is not a career killer per se, the article points out some it is, and what appears to the the more recent guys, but not everyone falls apart.  No one really improves after it, but you also have to keep in mind there may be other factors like age that plays into it.  

[KirbyHawk75]

Yawn.  I have PTSD from watching so many veteran projects pitching for the Twins since the Terry Ryan days.  They hardly ever work.  I have been following the Twins since 1987 and the Twins have developed very few pitchers over the years.  There have been a lot of veteran projects and young pitchers that never developed.   

[mikelink45]

My biggest worry is if Bundy and Archer pull a Happ and Shoemaker and we hang on to them too long.  If they look lousy cut them and move one. 

But I am still reeling from the FO pitching moves - besides last year there was Homer Bailey and Andrew Albers and John Gant and Martin Perez - which one of these did Wes Johnson do his, so called- magic, with?  Sorry, but you can only tweak so much and it has not given me any great hope.  I am beginning to think the Wes Johnson rep is undeserved. 

We had Zach Littell and now the Giants do - he was 4 - 2 with 2.92 era last year for the first place Giants.

Sean Poppin did not have a good year after leaving us, but he is on the Diamondback team.

We pushed Colina and then gave up on him.  Where was the coaching.  He is now with the Rangers.

Every year we hear about Thorpe, but no fix there.

Kyle Gibson went from a disappointment to an all-star when he left.

I am not sure that I can credit very many pitching coaches with changing careers, but it is time we start examining Wes and seeing if he is what they told us.

 

[baul0010]

1 hour ago, gunnarthor said:

I don't mind the move, in a vacuum. But this pitching staff is really bad. Again, it has to be better than last year simply by accident but I have no idea how they are 1400 or so innings out of this group. I like Bundy more than most posters do and Gray is a real pitcher but this looks bad.

That said, let's see what happens before the season starts. Archer in the pen with Montas in the rotation makes things a bit different.

 

There is no way we get anywhere close to 1400 innings from this group.  We are going to need 10 to 12 "starters" to get there.  There are no work horses in this group because of age (young and old) or injury.  

[Johnny Ringo]

This can be a short convo. Low risk, likely low reward. If anyone wants to know how Tampa miraculously competes every year; start with the Chris Archer case study.  

[TwinsDr2021]

Quite of few of the comments seem Eerily similiar to the comment last year after signing Shoemaker. IMO, it would be better to start with Gray, Ryan, Bundy, Ober and Winder and have the plan be Archer in the pen and move into the rotation if injury or if one of the starters stumble.

That way if Archer is bad in the pen, they could get rid of him before suffering though a bunch of bad starts.

[TownBallGuy]

I'm guessing the Twins won't be persuing Johnny Cueto any further?

[Heistyman]

1 hour ago, Trov said:

TOS is not a career killer per se, the article points out some it is, and what appears to the the more recent guys, but not everyone falls apart.  No one really improves after it, but you also have to keep in mind there may be other factors like age that plays into it.  

I cannot think of a TOS surgery success story.  Can you name someone that came out of it the same or better?

[Mike Sixel]

Did someone post that Joe Ryan should start in AAA, or was I hallucinating? Because, no. He was their best pitcher after the break last year. 

[PDX Twin]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

I am not sure that I can credit very many pitching coaches with changing careers, but it is time we start examining Wes and seeing if he is what they told us.

The teacher/student relationship is complicated. If the teacher can help the student fix his shortcomings, it will work; if the student's problems are not ones that the teacher is good at fixing, there won't be much improvement.

I'd be very interested in seeing a more detailed analysis of *which* pitchers have improved with Johnson and what aspects of his pitching improved, and *which* pitchers did the same or worse under Johnson and what were their weaknesses that Johnson seemingly did not improve.

[Dman]

Honestly the rotation doesn't look much better than last year but hopefully this time the young reinforcements are not injured and are there to be used this year (Winder, Balazovich, Henriquez, Sands, Duran and Strotman are likely all in AAA to start and just a phone call away if things go south). So if guys stay healthy we should have replacement options, however,  hard to say how those young guns will do at the MLB level.

Given Falvey's statement that they are likely done adding, buckle up it is going to be an interesting ride this year as we find out what kind of team we have.

[mikelink45]

30 minutes ago, PDX Twin said:

The teacher/student relationship is complicated. If the teacher can help the student fix his shortcomings, it will work; if the student's problems are not ones that the teacher is good at fixing, there won't be much improvement.

I'd be very interested in seeing a more detailed analysis of *which* pitchers have improved with Johnson and what aspects of his pitching improved, and *which* pitchers did the same or worse under Johnson and what were their weaknesses that Johnson seemingly did not improve.

I forgot to add JT Chargois - 6 - 1, 1.5 WAR, 2.52 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, in 56 games for the Rays to the list of pitcher that did not click under the current leadership. 

[PatPfund]

Love the name factor, but... ummm...

...it's been 7 years since he had a good and healthy season. He hasn't been in camp with less than 2 weeks to Opening Day, so how stretched out could he be by then? Doesn't that really make him depth behind someone like Winder, at least until he can throw 4-5 innings. Upside is he'll cost less than JA Happ (who is still available!!!!), and probably pitch better than Matty Shoe. Guess I'd stretch him out in St Paul, and try him when one of the many 'if's on the staff doesn't work. So, yea!?

(Just kidding with the faux Happ excitement; don't freak out people! Well unless the Twins sign Happ again...)

[heresthething]

Don't hate the signing, hope it works out.  BUT if it doesn't this FO has got to cut bait early enough so we can recover, hopefully last years's fiasco with the retread pitchers taught them a lesson.  We didn't have much invested into Happ and Shoemaker either and look how long they hung on to them.

[MMMordabito]

2 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Quite of few of the comments seem Eerily similiar to the comment last year after signing Shoemaker. IMO, it would be better to start with Gray, Ryan, Bundy, Ober and Winder and have the plan be Archer in the pen and move into the rotation if injury or if one of the starters stumble.

That way if Archer is bad in the pen, they could get rid of him before suffering though a bunch of bad starts.

At this point, Winder is stretched out more.  Archer won't be ready to be much more than an opener in 9 days.  I think we're about to see out-getter April.  Zero quality starts in the first month is a real possibility.  Hopefully, that 28-man roster helps that not become a disaster.

[Brandon]

3 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Whether this move works out will really come down to whether or not Archer is healthy. Because he's decent enough even at his worst to hold down the 5th spot and chew up innings for you in a way that the collective disaster of Happ, Shoemaker, Jax, Dobnak, and Barnes could not last season. (that's 58 starts we gave to guys with ERA's of 6 or more. I'm rounding up on Barnes. Sorry, Charlie)

Also, the only way Ober or Ryan are not in the rotation this season is if they start the season terribly and get sent down to AAA to get back on track. (Which could happen) But there's basically no chance they're not in the rotation on opening day. I also think there's very little chance of completing a deal for Manea or Montas before the season starts, unless Oakland suddenly comes down in price; every indicator right now is they want the sun and the moon and are willing to wait until the deadline to make a move if they don't get it. Fine: I'll play chicken on that one.

My prediction on Archer: 22 starts, 130 innings, ERA around 4.50. Raises the floor, and holds down the fort until more of the next wave are ready. Probably has 2 stints on the IL.

 

I have him at 15 starts and 65 innings.  If he gets to 22 starts expect around 90 to 100 innings tops.  He won’t average 5 innings per start as he won’t be ramped up to go beyond 5 for a while and innings limit to protect his arm after so few innings the last few years.  He will likely get piggybacked by Jax to get 6/7 innings From the pair.  Will be interesting to see how it plays out.