Twins to Sign RHP Chris Archer to One-Year Deal

[DocBauer]

Not happy with this.

Every single year, SOMEONE finds themselves again. We're betting on 2 guys right now. Hopefully ONE of Bundy or Archer finds themselves again and actually performs. 

I'm willing to lay money Bundy will be more successful than a rebounding Archer. And honestly, I thinkI Ober and Ryan are better than  Archer at this point. But why not take a cheap shot at this point?

Despite rumors of the A's and others having pitchers available, NOBODY has made a move yet. So the market might might just be dry at this point. The Twins have the depth and money to invest if things change. But right now, we might be looking at what we have.

Is that a bad thing? Is it OK to bet on Winder and a 8-10 man pen for now? Opportunity exists for high quality arms to prove themselves. And we have the depth to make a difference not only in 2022 but beyond. Are we there yet? At some point we have to give Opportunity or trade away.

I don't hate the Archer flier. I'm just hoping this is a cheap flier that reaps benefits like the , Bundy, flier that just gives the Twins a little more time to let let Winder, Balazovic, and others time to make their mark at the ML level. 

 

[jorgenswest]

When the Twins signed Rich Hill I felt he would either pitch well enough or be injured. I think I feel the same way about Archer. 

[JYTwinsFan]

Obviously we'd be more excited by spending the money we know is available on less of a lottery ticket (earlier this offseason). And I'm going to assume the cost for Manea or Montas are not reasonable. Given where we are and the Archer signing is done, the Twins continue to build a lot of flexibility into the roster as a means to compete best they can. The creative contracts are windows into this. With the three inning incentive for Archer, perhaps we'll see something like this play out in principle:

• Archer, Jax, and Cotton splitting the 5th starter "role" in a sense. Archer starts and one of the other two get the second trip through the batting order after 3ish innings. Or some combination of the same idea.
• This is aided by reduced need for the 5th starter due to off days in April (though that's minimal this year unless we get a bunch of rainouts).
• Assuming the rosters do expand to 28 to start the year, they can carry a Jax or Cotton or both without much downside (same with the three catcher situation).
• Builds a bridge to the service time deadline to save on another year of control for any in the prospect pipeline (and lets them develop a little more in AAA to start the year) - though correct me if that's different with the new CBA...I may have missed it.

This would be consistent with Thad Levine's statement late last year that they were looking at other ways to construct/use a pitching staff.

I realize this is a rosy way of looking at it. I'm not validating it as an optimal plan, but given the cards dealt with a week and a half until opening day, it's not a bad way to play a mediocre hand.

I do like the fact that the Twins always grab an affordable option year on these fliers. Not only do they have a pipeline of pitching prospects AA or higher (Ryan, Ober, Duran, Balazovic, SWR, Strotman, Winder, Sands), they have a potential abundance of veteran depth (Bundy, Archer, Gray, Maeda) for 2023. If only one or two stick as affordable back end rotation starters that's fine. So you are looking for 5 guys out of 12 to stick for 2023 and that's before you spend a dime (which they have plenty of in 2023) on free agency.

Obviously all of these guys could be Shoemakers or maybe one could Hughes. You could also spend a fortune on a free agent elbow that blows out with one random pitch. But it's clear to me the Twins value pitching depth as a more sustainable path to winning (now bolstered by the expanded playoffs).

[twins_89]

I'm not particularly excited about the move, though at this point there really aren't any free agent options that would be clearly better. I just hope that Archer (and Bundy) have a fairly short leash and the team doesn't give them 10-20 starts if its clear they are cooked. Ideally, I'd only want one Archer/Bundy reclamation type of signing, but since the front office whiffed on signing a reliable starter this is what we get.

[DocBauer]

Does anyone else get perplexed or wonder about what's going on when you realize that the A's are running a garage sale, and the Red's suddenly "declare" their pitchers are off limits, and what in the hell happened to a building Marlins team who is suddenly silent?

I am NOT excusing the Twins FO from making a SP move to make a difference for 2022, if not beyond. But if nobody else is either, it shows there is a sudden FREEZE in the market right now.

The bad news is they blew a chance to add a decent pitcher before the lockout.

The good news is:

1] They MIGHT end up with a surprise rotation piece. And it happens every single year.

2] There is actually a good chance that even brining in "fodder" still allows time for the prospects to get their stuff together and make a difference for at least a half season.

3] There's actually a chance this bullpen is damn good...even though I'd rather see Duran in the rotation, at least eventually...and can help the ST get acclimated.

4] Again, not crazy about Bundy or Archer. I think we BLEW a chance for a solid SP for 2022. But we COULD end up with a potential steal. That would be great!

Greater still would be just some IP by a couple veteran arms and some young arms early in various roles to ramp up and gain experience early.

Truth is, it would be a shame to waste the lineup we have and the potential of the pen we might have. But there ARE some young arms that could make a difference in 2022. And this IS the year we should start to see "tomorrow". 

ALSO, I have to add, the system is still strong enough and deep enough,  that unless we go crazy, we can still bring someone on board via trade a month from now, or at the deadline. And $ is also in our favor.

I still think we BLEW an opportunity before the lockout to make a difference. But considering the freeze in the market right now, and the expanded roster for the moment, and the number of quality arms to play/project/protect,  does all of this maybe play in our favor a couple months from now?

[RaoulDuke]

I am on board with this.  He can bounce back to being a mid rotation starter, he could just be a back end guy now, he could suck, he could get injured again.  Its a cheap contract if he isn't good and they will happily pay the bonuses if he is.

Its not the splashy trade everyone wants, but its about as good as you are going to get at this point in the off season.  It is also cheap enough that it does not prohibit trading for someone or signing whatever else there is left like Cueto.

This season is going to be rough on pitching staffs.  Shortened spring they are already going in under prepared.  Starters going 5 is going to be luxury for a bit, injuries will happen, and who can you trust to throw 180 innings? The stable of young arms will see plenty of work it would have been insane to go into this year with 3/5 your rotation as rookies.

I am still on the trade bandwagon for sure though.  Go get Means, a Marlins pitcher, or eat a bad San Diego contract to get a starter back.  They can still do more even if Oakland is asking for a ransom for their assets they clearly want to move.

[RaoulDuke]

On 12/2/2021 at 10:51 AM, KirbyDome89 said:

Odorizzi and Maeda weren't developed by the Twins. Berrios for sure was a success, but who did he snatch that title from? Liriano maybe? That was 10 years ago. Santana was 20 years ago. We're not that far removed from the Twins teams in the mid 2010s that could barely field two ML caliber pitchers, and right now the outlook isn't exactly roses either. They've had some success with FA starters (very little with the current FO) but even those were very short lived. 

 

4 hours ago, Linus said:

This. I am not aware of any pitcher going thru this surgery that has come back. It’s a crying shame that our one year with Correa is going to be wasted with this pitching staff. 

The one year of Correa would never have happened if they had signed a pitcher.  Its a weird deal that came about because they had to do something.

[TopTwinsFan]

3 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

When the Twins signed Rich Hill I felt he would either pitch well enough or be injured. I think I feel the same way about Archer. 

If he gives the Twins what Rich Hill did a couple years ago, I think most of us will do back flips.

I like the move as the Twins obviously have monitored his pitching closely this off season but I cant help but wonder about management's approach to pitching in general. Pitching is the most important part of the game (good pitching beats good hitting, etc) but it feels like for Falvey and co. its an afterthought. They almost seemed anxious to trade Berrios. A guy they could be building this current staff around much like the Twins did with Radke to begin our run of divisional dominance from 2001-2010.

If you dont believe how important pitching is, look at how hard it is to get a #3/4starter.

I really like Ober and Ryan and they give me hope for the future for this staff, but currently Sonny Gray is our Ace and that's just sad on a club that wants to feel competitive.

If you are expecting him to dominate, you need to build a time machine.

Hoping Bundy will control his pitches as never before and the young guys can be dominant enough to keep Gray from needing to be the Ace. 

[TopTwinsFan]

3 hours ago, twins_89 said:

I'm not particularly excited about the move, though at this point there really aren't any free agent options that would be clearly better. I just hope that Archer (and Bundy) have a fairly short leash and the team doesn't give them 10-20 starts if its clear they are cooked. Ideally, I'd only want one Archer/Bundy reclamation type of signing, but since the front office whiffed on signing a reliable start this is what we get.

Just having some fun with your comment but how drunk do you think a Twins fans would have to get to get excited about this move? Do you think anyone woke up their spouse or kids screaming "YEEEEESS, we got EM! Archer's a Twin!!!"?

Being a Twins fan is like Christmas with parents who dont give you the great gifts some of your friends get but also make sure you get a couple nice little toys to go with your pants and dress shirts to keep you satisfied.

This offseason was different because Fathers Pohlad and father Falvey could tell the fans were pissed so they rented us a PS5 to make sure we'd keep attending Christmas dinner.

High quality pitching costs a lot of money and none of the Twins owners cares enough (perhaps not even at all) about winning to allow the front office to get more pitching so they try to cobble together a cheap staff and spend more on hitting. So far, a fairly unsuccessful formula- winnless for 20 years in the postseason. The current regime of Falvey and Levine seem less interested in high end pitching than any I have seen:

- Traded Berrios

-Never made a splash pitching signing, even a one year deal (that I can remember anyway)

-Have not developed or traded for one solid young pitcher (though we hope Ober and Ryan can change that)

[Wizard11]

I would prefer the Twins try to a make a run at John Means.  I think we would line up better with the Orioles on a volume prospect trade and the Orioles have at times indicated Means could be available.  He will be starting to become expensive before there window is open so I think it is inevitable that they are going to trade him.  They are drastically moving and raising the outfield walls in Baltimore so perhaps they want to shine his numbers a bit before moving him.  

[Prince William]

9 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Well, he's been an All-Star as often as Correa. I guess that shows that All-Star appearances aren't an exact indication of how good a player is. I see he had thoracic outlet surgery, same as Phil Hughes. How many pitchers have recovered and thrived after such a surgery?

Better to have someone than no one, but I have my doubt how well he will do. I'm guessing they thought he has more in the tank than Cueto. I am wondering who gets taken off the 40-man roster to make room for Archer.

When every team gets an all star player somebody gets to go for the mediocre teams. That was Archer. A statistic on the success rate of TOS is in the abstract. It costs money to read the article.  $509 if my short term memory is working. I am neither rich enough nor benevolent enough were I rich enough to pay that.  Performance in major league baseball pitchers after surgical treatment of thoracic outlet syndrome - PubMed (nih.gov)

[Prince William]

1 hour ago, TopTwinsFan said:

Just having some fun with your comment but how drunk do you think a Twins fans would have to get to get excited about this move? Do you think anyone woke up their spouse or kids screaming "YEEEEESS, we got EM! Archer's a Twin!!!"?

Being a Twins fan is like Christmas with parents who dont give you the great gifts some of your friends get but also make sure you get a couple nice little toys to go with your pants and dress shirts to keep you satisfied.

This offseason was different because Fathers Pohlad and father Falvey could tell the fans were pissed so they rented us a PS5 to make sure we'd keep attending Christmas dinner.

High quality pitching costs a lot of money and none of the Twins owners cares enough (perhaps not even at all) about winning to allow the front office to get more pitching so they try to cobble together a cheap staff and spend more on hitting. So far, a fairly unsuccessful formula- winnless for 20 years in the postseason. The current regime of Falvey and Levine seem less interested in high end pitching than any I have seen:

- Traded Berrios

-Never made a splash pitching signing, even a one year deal (that I can remember anyway)

-Have not developed or traded for one solid young pitcher (though we hope Ober and Ryan can change that)

Oh be in that position in life to think that 28 is not young

The development of many of the pitchers was hindered by that silly little thing called a pandemic.  It is strange to assail the front office for things that they have no control over. They were not responsible for what the previous regime drafted. Their first draft class had high school pitchers. The players drafted after that haven't had time to develop in 2 seasons. What does people expect a timeline to look like for drafted high school or college pitchers?

Patrick Corbin, Eovaldi, Bumgartner, Arrietta and Cobb all really sucked for the bucks they were paid. Darvish, Cole, and Strasburg contracts are not close enough to complete to say they were good or bad. There were only a couple of contracts that worked, Wheeler's contract out of all of the big splash contracts signed while this front office has been employed has been the only one that has been worth the money. People here wonder why the FO does not sign big name pitchers to big contracts. The answer lies in effectiveness of how the money gets spent. 

 

 

[bighat]

10 hours ago, Dman said:

Yeah I thought some bottom feeder would at least give him a chance but honestly his stuff isn't all that much better than most teams AAAA lefties.  With no great fastball velocity and a pretty poor record against elite competition I guess it shouldn't be too surprising no one wanted to handcuff their 40 man with someone like that.

Pretty much my thoughts too. Off the top of my head, I can't remember the last time Lewis Thorpe had a stellar or even memorable outing. If the guy was on the bump it was 4 innings, 5 hits, 3 ER and a strikeout or two.

Then there was that bizarre story from last year's Spring Training when he just left camp for "personal reasons" for 10 days last year. Don't get me wrong, everyone should be able to take time off for their mental health if needed, but we really never heard what exactly was going on there. Some very cryptic quotes from both Thorpe and Rocco surrounding that issue as well. The MSP media isn't New York and they never probed or speculated, but other team executives have done their homework and they know what happened. It's possible they view Thorpe as someone that might prove to be a problem, and since his numbers aren't outstanding nobody wanted to take a flier on him on waivers.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Very much on board with this move.  Archer has been unlucky with batting average on balls in play from 2017-2019, with marks of 325, 339 and 304. If that number comes back down under 300 as it should, he will do better than his numbers in 2017-2019 look.  He needs to keep his hits below a hit per inning to be successful, I think.

His home run rates and walk rates are a bit concerning, though, with both higher than his usual in 2019 and the short stint in 2021.  Perhaps pitching in Pittsburgh was a factor in that?

He posted 12 WAR over the 2013-2017 seasons, about 2.4 per season. I don’t think he’ll get back to that level, but if he is healthy, he could certainly be added value, such as 1.0-1.5 WAR.  Not high upside, but there is some upside.

I would have been fine with Cueto as the signing - I’m happier that they chose Archer instead.  And I like the incentives and the 2023 option too.

[Riverbrian]

7 hours ago, Brandon said:

Again Shoemaker was given a longer leash because there were so many injured pitchers they literally had no one to replace him for the last 3 or 4 starts he was here.

You are probably correct that injuries played a role in the length of Shoemaker's leash... our injury situation got ridiculous, however it still doesn't hold water.  

Shoemaker's ERA was 8.08 when he was finally designated for assignment on July 1st. 

However, no matter the injury situation. Finding someone better than 8.08 should never be a problem for any organization. Select Charlie Barnes earlier... sign Wade LeBlanc off the scrap heap if you just can't give Charlie Barnes a chance. 

Wasting a 26 and 40 man roster spot on a vet pitcher on a 1 year deal with an 8.08 ERA is how the life gets sucked out of an organization. You literally try anybody else. 

I'm ok rolling the dice with Archer and Bundy... but if the dice roll is snake eyes, they can't be allowed to kill us all the way into July like Shoemaker... like Logan Morrison was placed in the lineup over and over again. They can't be absolutely terrible and block youth from auditioning.   

No more Logan Morrison's... No more Matt Shoemaker free agent mistake double downs. Vets have always gotten the longer leash and it should be the other way around. 

I say this as a supporter of the front office. 

[PopRiveter]

I was a lot more excited about this news before I read the comments from all my TD brethren. 

Archer has pitched parts of nine seasons, and he's been a below-average starter in just one of those.

He missed 2020 and most of last season with injury, but when he came back, he was right back to 9.8K/9 and a league average FIP. 

As long as he is healthy enough to pitch in 2022, he should be an asset and this contract is structured such that the real risk is just the innings they commit to him. 

There were definitely better FA starters available before the lockout, but that ship sailed long ago. I see Archer as a starter with a realistic chance to be very good. He's a much better option than I thought they'd find with Opening Day just 9 days away.

And to equate him with Dylan Bundy? That is a joke. Bundy's career ERA and FIP are 4.72/4.69, while Archer's are 3.87/3.66- that's like a full run apart. Bundy's career average rate stats are not much better than those of Archer's worst season. When healthy, there's no comparison. 

Rich Hill is a much more accurate comp.

[Whitey333]

Hope the move works out.  I guess it's worth a try.  But if thats all that we are going to add to the starting pitching staff we probably won't be in contention at all by the trading deadline.  Archer may turn out ok.  But it's just as likely to be another reclamation busy.  The other day a national publication had the twins projected at 79-83 this year good for fourth place in central.  This was after the Correa signing.  I am guessing that is it for adding starting pitching.  So the starting staff has 2 reclamation projects, two guys with a total of 25 ml games between them and likely a rookie.  But we do have a 35 million dollar shortstop.  Good luck!  I really hope it works out, but not very likely.

[mikelink45]

12 hours ago, Sconnie said:

One of Bundy or Archer is fine, but both is a bad sign for this rotation. Yuck

Reminds me of Happ and Shoemaker!  I would rather go young. 

[big dog]

This gives us twice as many chances to find a solid starter on the cheap. Maybe we go 0-2, but we have more opportunity to have at least 1. And all it "cost" us was a little money and moving Thorpe off the roster but keeping him in the organization, in case that ends up being worth anything.

This buys us time, maybe a little but maybe a lot, to see what else is out there, and to see whether any of the minor leaguers are ready to step up.

I agree with RiverBrian, the only big problem here is if both Archer and Bundy are ineffective and we keep riding them hoping they improve. We need a short leash. If something doesn't work, doing it harder with more enthusiasm is not a great strategy.

[mikelink45]

Archer has struggled for a long time.  I went to Baseball reference to look at his career.   He was terrific with an era below 3.25 for three years!  But then he jumped into the 4+ ERA for the next five years with his Whip also jumping up during this period.  And then he was 5.19 in 2019, missed 2020 and came back to 4.66. He had an ERA+ of 100 or more for 5 of his 9 years.  His WPA was a negative for five years and then was 0.2 last year.  This is not a track record that excites me.  I would take either Archer of Bundy, I do not like having both. 

[TopGunn#22]

This move doesn't really push the needle but I can see the logic.  Like last year, the Twins FO is putting their eggs in a basket of a couple veteran pitchers to regain some of their earlier career "magic."  Last year, it turned out to be an epic fail.  The leash for Happ and Shoemaker was far too long.  But as others have pointed out, the injuries to pitchers and the weird 2020 covid shortened season messed things up royally.  I'm hoping for the best, but I'm also hoping for a quicker pivot if Bundy and Archer trend more like Happ/Shoemaker than Rich Hill.  This year, we have the young pitchers ready and knocking on the door.  It's clear, the A's and Reds are holding out for King's Ransoms.  Better to wait the market out at this point.  In fact, Luis Castillo is experiencing "shoulder soreness" right now.  The Reds certainly need to wait until he shows he can pitch before dealing him.  It's not how I "hoped" the rotation would look when the season started, but the current situation probably makes this necessary.  I'd still like to see the Twins try to get Max Meyer from the Marlins.  I think Max is close to being a big league SP and right now, Miami has no place for him.   

[miller761]

Having both Archer and Bundy is not ideal. We will need innings pitched to get through this season. Winder and the other young pitchers can only pitch so many innings. Even if the above 2 only pitch half a season it will allow us the chance to insert 2 of our younger pitchers into rotation. That would be worst case scenario. Oakland will trade those 2 SP's so we are ,still in on them. Everything the FO has done leads me to believe they will land a solid SP, it is just a matter of time. My dream is that soon other teams will be knocking on our door looking for good, young, controllable SP like Miami has.

[MN_ExPat]

10 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Frankie Montas is one. Kenny Rogers had it in 2001 and was 75-39 in the 5 years following (2003 with the Twins). There are other success stories.

That is not to argue that we should expect success. Several like Harvey and Hughes have not returned.

My source is  the Athletic.

Also we have to keep in mind, which type of TOS the player has had.  There are 3 major types that I know of. 

• Nerve Impingement
• Blood Vessel Impingement
• Nerve & Blood Vessel Impingement

The degree or amount of impingement needs to be factored into the equation as well.  So, yes it is true that a number of pitchers have bounced back from it.  I don't remember what the extent of Archer's was, so we shall see if he can adjust and, with Wes Johnson's help, recapture some of his previous mojo.

[PopRiveter]

40 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Archer has struggled for a long time.  I went to Baseball reference to look at his career.   He was terrific with an era below 3.25 for three years!  But then he jumped into the 4+ ERA for the next five years with his Whip also jumping up during this period.  And then he was 5.19 in 2019, missed 2020 and came back to 4.66. He had an ERA+ of 100 or more for 5 of his 9 years.  His WPA was a negative for five years and then was 0.2 last year.  This is not a track record that excites me.  I would take either Archer of Bundy, I do not like having both. 

This is a little off. It was 3 years (you are seeing 2018 3 times-I did the same thing.)

During those 3 years, his FIP (expected ERA with fielding neutralized) was 3.81, 3.40, 3.75. Average is 4.20

By comparison, Berrios best ever FIP in MN was 3.47

In 2021, no starter other than Berrios posted a FIP below 4.10.

Also, his WHIP through 2015 was 1.19. From 2016-18 it rose to 1.28. 

If Archer were to return to the production of any of his seasons other than 2019, he would likely be the Twins best starter in 2022. Injuries make that a very big IF.

 

 

[Heistyman]

I am not liking the move and I don't think Archer deserved more than a minor league deal at this point.  I really think we should have given Winder the ball and seen what these young arms could do with a good defense behind them.  When you have this many hurlers on the cusp you don't want to create a logjam in the minors and not really know how these guys will compete on the big stage.  I think we could have gotten the young guys some exposure now and could find an Archer type if someone flames out.

[AlwaysinModeration]

23 minutes ago, PopRiveter said:

This is a little off. It was 3 years (you are seeing 2018 3 times-I did the same thing.)

During those 3 years, his FIP (expected ERA with fielding neutralized) was 3.81, 3.40, 3.75. Average is 4.20

By comparison, Berrios best ever FIP in MN was 3.47

In 2021, no starter other than Berrios posted a FIP below 4.10.

Also, his WHIP through 2015 was 1.19. From 2016-18 it rose to 1.28. 

If Archer were to return to the production of any of his seasons other than 2019, he would likely be the Twins best starter in 2022. Injuries make that a very big IF.

 

 

From Dan Hayes’ Athletic article:

“We stayed in contact with Chris over the last few weeks as he was building up his workload and showcasing himself,” Falvey said. “Being able to track his pitches and get the velos and TrackMan, see his video, and know where he’s at in his progression was a big part of this one. As we near Opening Day, it was important that we consider readiness if we were going to add a free agent and Chris comes in tracking pretty closely with our starters in terms of volume.”

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

You are probably correct that injuries played a role in the length of Shoemaker's leash... our injury situation got ridiculous, however it still doesn't hold water.  

Shoemaker's ERA was 8.08 when he was finally designated for assignment on July 1st. 

However, no matter the injury situation. Finding someone better than 8.08 should never be a problem for any organization. Select Charlie Barnes earlier... sign Wade LeBlanc off the scrap heap if you just can't give Charlie Barnes a chance. 

Wasting a 26 and 40 man roster spot on a vet pitcher on a 1 year deal with an 8.08 ERA is how the life gets sucked out of an organization. You literally try anybody else. 

You realize the Twins actually did cut Shoemaker as soon as he ERA reached that threshold, right? They didn't waste a spot on a guy with an 8.06 ERA.

In fact, Shoemaker's ERA entering his final start with the Twins was 5.90. Still not good, but in a 50 IP sample, it's hardly an "automatic cut" level.

After that start, Shoemaker was sent to the pen for mostly mop-up duty, 5 appearances and 4.2 IP over three weeks, before getting DFA'd. It didn't work out, but it didn't suck the life out of the organization either.

[Otto von Ballpark]

On Archer, it's encouraging that even after his struggles in Pittsburgh, the Rays were not only willing to take him back last year, but guaranteed him $6.5 mil for the privilege (that was actually more than they ever paid Archer in a season before).

It's perhaps a little discouraging that the Rays weren't able to do much with him in 2021 and apparently didn't want him back for 2022, although they are in a different competitive spot than the Twins, so they have different needs and a different risk profile.

[Harrison Greeley III]

He will definitely need to rely on his off-speed stuff this year. On Fangraphs, the pitch value on his fastball shows a decline in effectiveness and velocity.

His slider went from dominant in his good Tampa days to completely neutralized in Pittsburgh and then slightly negative his last 2 seasons. It looks like he unlocked something in his change-up last year though. It was his only pitch with a positive value. He only threw it 12.8% of the time.

So as a reclamation project, Wes Johnson has three keys to make Archer good again.

1. Increase the change-up usage. (assuming it remains effective, of course) 

2. Pinpoint what worked about his slider in 2015-17 and rediscover what he lost somewhere around 2018.

3. Find a way to add deception to his fastball release, compensating for declining velocity. 

This is not going to be easy. 

[jrod23]

12 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Frankie Montas is one. Kenny Rogers had it in 2001 and was 75-39 in the 5 years following (2003 with the Twins). There are other success stories.

That is not to argue that we should expect success. Several like Harvey and Hughes have not returned.

My source is  the Athletic.

Good digging.  I tried, and I couldn't find a list that included these two throwers.  I'd probably move Montas down my list of wants after know that though.  Who knows, maybe it fully worked for him.  I had no idea Kenny Rogers had it done.  Didn't even know it was a thing back in 2001.  Again, good sleuthing.

I remember the days of plays not being able to return to form after TJ or ACL's.  Those days seem to be behind us and players coming back stronger.  Hopefully this type of surgery gets to that level.