Josh Winder Shouldn't Make the Opening Day Rotation

[Cody Pirkl]

The Twins still haven’t acquired another starting pitcher as Opening Day nears. With only a few fringe free-agent options even available to fill the fifth rotation spot, fans have called for adding yet another rookie to the rotation when the season begins. This may be a mistake.

Josh Winder gained a lot of prospect steam last season as he performed incredibly well at Double-A with a sub 2.00 ERA in 50+ innings before getting promoted to Triple-A. He may have been well on his way to his MLB debut before being shut down with shoulder issues, but he looks healthy and effective so far this spring. 

Winder finds himself in the conversation for a rotation spot due to what can only be described as a massive disappointment in regards to the Twins addressing their rotation this winter. They currently have four starting pitchers penciled in with Opening Day less than two weeks away. Led by Sonny Gray, the rest of the rotation consists of reclamation project Dylan Bundy and two rookies in Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan, the latter of which has only five MLB starts under his belt. The fifth spot at this point is unspoken for. Candidates include Devin Smeltzer who isn't currently on the 40 man roster. Lewis Thorpe and Griffin Jax have been moved into bullpen roles but could find themselves competing due to a lack of other options. Then of course we have Josh Winder who has yet to debut.

It’s fair to grab ahold of the shiny new prospect when reading that list of names. The other three, of course, have all had their opportunities and haven’t exactly flourished. It’s absolutely possible that the Twins see this decision the same way if they fail to bring in one more arm. It’s worth noting that Winder winding up in the Opening Day rotation, however, should be viewed with much more disappointment than excitement.

From Minnesota to the rest of the league, rookie pitchers fail all the time (or at least most often) in their debut. It should almost be expected at this point. Some need a bit more time in the minors such as when Jose Berrios debuted with his 8+ ERA. Others just never figure it out despite being highly touted all throughout the minors such as Stephen Gonsalves or Fernando Romero. It’s important to remember this not just to be pessimistic, but to keep expectations in check.

Winder hadn’t pitched above A ball until 2021 when he posted those 54 2/3 innings in AA, and not only did he put up only 17 innings in AAA, but they weren’t all that effective. His K% fell from 31.3% to 22.4%. He allowed two home runs in those 17 innings and posted a 4.67 ERA before being shut down. Surely a small sample size, but not exactly a performance that screams “MLB ready”.

The point being, if the Twins don’t add another starting pitcher to the roster and go with Winder right out of the gate, they may very well be following up an offseason failure with a decision that damages one of their top pitching prospects as well as their season. They’d likely be better off mixing and matching with arms they know everything about than a rookie pitcher who hasn’t shown he’s quite MLB ready yet.

Winder would make a great Plan B for any struggling or injured arms after the season begins assuming he’s doing reasonably well in St. Paul. It’s fair to assume that he makes his debut in some way in 2022. It just shouldn’t be as the third rookie starting pitcher on an Opening Day roster that considers themselves contenders.

Am I just a thief of joy, or do you agree? Leave your COMMENTS below. 

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[nmcowboy]

Agree.  The Twins need to make another move for a SP.

[mikelink45]

I disagree - give Winder a chance.  Yes prospects fail, they also exceed expectations.  I would love to see them use him if he is doing well in ST.  

[nicksaviking]

90% of rookie pitchers struggle no matter when they are called up. Probably more. Is there a better time for him to learn and adjust than early this season? 

From my perspective, it’s better to do it now when the team doesn’t look ready to contend.
 

 

[Brandon]

Ober is not a rookie.

While he is going through his sophomore season, if he shows he can pitch this year then odds are he's made it.  

I do agree that we should probably have another starter if for no other reason then to give us more options.  Though Winder does look legit so far.

[Dman]

While I agree with the OP that it would be better to have a front of the rotation type starter instead of needing Winder for that spot, I don't think that means Winder can't be a solution.  The AAA numbers could be a bit misleading as he was struck by a ball in the neck and never was quite the same pitcher after that, eventually ending his season with a sore\tired arm.  

The thing that is different about Winder compared to some of the other pitchers mentioned is that his fastball is right around 95mph the WHIP and K rate have been solid all the way up.  While he could definitely use more AAA seasoning all the numbers appear to point to him being successful at the MLB level.  Moving to MLB is a very tough transition as noted in the article, Berrios being a prime example.  Still you have to give guys a chance to know what they can do. Just like Berrios, Winder looks like he has the pitches to make it.  How that translates in his first few starts is hard to say but he has the stuff to make it.

Again to the OP's point we already have a rotation of young arms in Ober, and Ryan adding Winder would mean 3/5th's of the rotation would be fairly inexperienced arms.  Personally I don't trust Bundy's under 90 fastballs to be effective making the only fairly reliable starter Sonny Gray.  It is not a great position to be in and yet here we are.

Still the Twins have a number of near ready MLB arms in Winder, Canterino, Balazovich, Henriquez, Sands, Strotman, Duran.  With more guys needing to be added to the 40 man next year in SWR, Varland, SGL, Mooney and possibly others.  The Twins do need to find out what they have because they can't keep them all.  Hopefully rotating some of these guys through they can get  better feel for what they have or don't have.

Would I still like to see a front of the rotation arm like Montas sure but I think the Twins might be just fine leaving things the way they are.

[Dave The Dastardly]

I'd submit that fading "experienced" pitchers fail just as often, if not more spectacularly, than rookies. We only have to look back at 2021 for multiple examples. The difference is the rookies can use the experience, win or lose, to learn where they need to improve in order to up their game because they have youth and time on their side. The old "pro" we fished out of the dumpster on the other hand is going nowhere but home. That's something to keep in mind if we're really trying  to build for the future.

If the kid's healthy give him the 5th spot. It's no harder to throw a pitch in MLB than it is to throw the same pitch in the minors.

 

[DJL44]

Quote

he looks healthy and effective

Use pitchers while they're healthy and effective. Wait too long and they'll be injured and ineffective.

[Sielk]

I would love Winder in the opening day rotation. 

But, that's the important point, I want him to be in Bundy's spot and not instead of a big trade. I totally agree with you that banking on Winder in that spot would be a recipe for disaster. They definitely need to trade for that proven starter.

One last point regarding Winder "struggling" at AAA: I wouldn't put any stock in that.

He made four starts at AAA. The first was excellent: 5.2 one-hit innings. In fact the one run he technically allowed was entirely on the subsequent reliever screwing up his job with a runner on first and already 2 outs.

For his other three starts you can find very plausible reasons why he was at less than 100% (namely getting hit by a comebacker, pitching on short rest after the futures game, then the game which he left with an injury). His excellent performance at AA should carry far more weight. 

Give the kid a shot. Just, as I said, in addition to a big trade, not instead. If he struggles then, you still have Bundy as insurance. 

[BAUERS]

Comparing Berrios and Gonsalves to Winder is an apples and oranges comparison. They are products of the old regime and we've overhauled pitching development since then. Gonsalves was never going to be anything regardless of when he got called and getting called up early didn't hurt Berrios in the long run. Post hoc ergo propter hoc.

[nicksaviking]

If Winder is “damaged” because he gets hit hard early in his career, he’s not going to be the type of pitcher I want on this team. That’s cold I know, but that’s professional sports.

I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the only three good starting pitchers this team has developed in the last 30 years, Berrios, Santana and Radke, got the snot knocked out of them early but were mentally tough enough to learn and prosper from it. No codling, toss these guys into the deep end; we only want the ones who can make it back up anyway.
 

[stringer bell]

Should the Twins look for a veteran to fill the fifth spot? With what is left on free agent market, I don't think it is a considerable upgrade. So IMHO the question becomes what is the best for the player? I don't think Winder would be damaged beyond repair if he was sent down after struggling. Does he give the team a better chance to win than anyone else? I don't know, but I certainly could be convinced that he is the best option. 

The Twins do have a lot of near-ready talent in the upper minors. They will probably have to cull the herd a bit which probably gives them impetus to trade prospects for an established starter. I can endorse such a move, but what the current front office hasn't done is choose the right people to let go. They will have lots of guys to plug in to try and stick in the rotation.

[jorgenswest]

I think it is a better plan than going with a Happ, Shoemaker, Bailey or even a Hill.  If you sign one of those pitchers you are hoping to squeeze out one more year of health and back end rotation performance. If you pay one of those guys enough money is invested that you keep starting them in spite of poor results.

Yes. Go with three inexperienced young starters. Be ready to flip them with some of the other near ready young starters in the minors. I would go with their upside.

[Doctor Gast]

I agree with you Cody. Winder shouldn't be considered as starting the season as #5 SP. It wouldn't be fair to the team to give up the chance to compete in 2022 by slating Winder in, w/o no real back-up plan. Just throw Winder in there and see if he swims if not oh well I don't care if we compete, I don't like that attitude. Not only that, it wouldn't be fair to put Winder in that situation and pressure. 

We need another veteran front line SP as plan A. Later have Winder put into a controlled rotating long reief corp. That gives Winder a chance to get used to the waters before he's thrown into the deep end. Last season they experimented with poor or inexperienced 3/4 OFers with no real plan B and that helped sink the Twins. Lets have better options this season and compete and even win a post season game. Let's not give up on that!

[RJA]

I agree with many others that the FO needs another frontline pitcher, but having sat on their thumbs all fall, they have ended up between a rock and a hard place.  Either overpay for an arm or go with a youngster.  Having said that, this is a good time and environment to bring up a young starter.  The defense up the middle is with Buxton, Polanco, Correa and Jeffers is first rate.  Urshela at third is excellent as is Kepler in right.  Left if it is Kirilloff is ok.  Winder would have plays made behind him to take off some of the pressure.  Plus, this team should score runs which should also help the transition.  Finally, there are enough experienced leaders on this team with Correa, Buxton, Polanco, Gray, Rogers, etc.  to give him good support.  I say go for it.

[rv78]

"They’d likely be better off mixing and matching with arms they know everything about than a rookie pitcher who hasn’t shown he’s quite MLB ready yet."

Only way to find out is to give him the chance. And why is piecing together has-beens that they know are short term fixes because of their lack of acquiring good arms in the first place, better?

[roger]

Have a question for all of you who are lobbying for the Twins to make that big trade, most wanting one of the Oakland starters.  But what if Oakland is sitting back and asking for the sky and the moon?  With it reported that there are multiple teams talking to them, why hasn't a deal been done with someone?  Sounds like their ask just may be unrealistic.  

If that is the case, aren't the Twins better off going with one of their prospects versus signing another aging, average at best arm?  I don't know about y'all, but I would rather have Winder and/or Balazovic and/or Duran than this year's version of Pitcher X.  It is also true that the FO and coaching staff knows a heck of a lot more about these kids than any of us or the many reporters filling the twitter world with news every day.  Who knows, they may believe that Winder is ready and expect him to do very well! 

[PatPfund]

 Sure, I'd love a better arm, and sure, the Twins are paying for not doing things before the lockout. But... if Oakland's prices are too high (which they might be at this point), I'm fine with waiting for more realistic pricing.

(Patience growing from my overall view of the team as competitive for an expanded playoff spot, but unlikely to go further even with a new frontline arm. Sano and Sanchez on the same roster is awful unless one or both of them recaptures rookie glory, and the outfield is a landmine of questions/weakness. Can Buxton stay healthy for the first time ever? Can Max be good with unjuiced baseballs and shifting? Can Rooker or Larnach be big hitters? Answer no to any of those, and OF keeps this team non-elite.)

The expanded roster makes this an easy call. Even if you get a Montas or Manaea, I'd give Winder a turn or two in the first 5, then send him down with an experience to help him learn. Everything you said is right, but the learning curve needs to progress; dude is 25 (I think), so if it permanently breaks him, he probably isn't MLB material. Ever.

And Dman is dead-on; better to find out now if you have something, than to lose him to Rule 5, and then find out he is really good by facing him in another uniform.

[Old fox]

when to promote a prospect is hard to determine when the prospect is ready. It’s not an exact science. It’s depends on the player’s maturation, skills ability, motivation skills, psychic approach, and communication and observation skills. Past indecaters show only historical values. Baseball is played in the now and not in the past. The past has no energy because energy because energy is developed today. 

[Brandon]

56 minutes ago, roger said:

Have a question for all of you who are lobbying for the Twins to make that big trade, most wanting one of the Oakland starters.  But what if Oakland is sitting back and asking for the sky and the moon?  With it reported that there are multiple teams talking to them, why hasn't a deal been done with someone?  Sounds like their ask just may be unrealistic.  

If that is the case, aren't the Twins better off going with one of their prospects versus signing another aging, average at best arm?  I don't know about y'all, but I would rather have Winder and/or Balazovic and/or Duran than this year's version of Pitcher X.  It is also true that the FO and coaching staff knows a heck of a lot more about these kids than any of us or the many reporters filling the twitter world with news every day.  Who knows, they may believe that Winder is ready and expect him to do very well! 

I would agree with you but since I think Bundt is a 50/50 odds for success at this point, I would rather we have another starter at the beginning of the season and we can always start replacing as we go.  I mean right now we are looking at:

Grey, Bundy, Winder, Ober, Ryan

in reserve we have Duran if not in the pen, Balazovich, then a drop off to Sands, Richardson-Woods, then Strotman, Jax, other castoffs in our system.  We don’t have much in the ready category for 7th starter and beyond.

[EGFTShaw]

This is not really a disagreement perse...

Yesterday I went to Baseball Trade Values(https://www.baseballtradevalues.com) and sorted through a list of possible MLB pitchers the Twins could go after.  I know we are hung up on the M&M boys from the As, but there are others.  Just not a lot. 
Criteria: Value had to be above 20 (FM:39.6 and SM:14.1[yes this misses the 20 value but everyone talks about SM)

Also had to be a listed as at least a Medium in the opportunity to acquire them.

So beyond the M&M brothers.

Framber Valdez(Astros) 83.3
Logan Webb(Giants) 71.5
Luis Castillo(Reds) 66.0
German Marquez(Rockies) 58.7
Tristan McKenzie(Guardians) 58.7
Pablo Lopez(Marlins) 57.1
Luis Garcia(Blue Jays) 54.8
Julio Urias(Dodgers) 48.2
Tyler Mahle(Reds) 44.4
John Means (Os) 41.8

I only used BTVs because it had a way to search and compare.

The right thing to have done, (but an IT career and starting a film career leaves little time to play GM), would be to download the lists from BTV and then add additional sorting criteria AFV, availability, Trade Value.  I have no idea on the true availability to the Twins, (e.g. Guardians trade in their division, Giants/Dodgers trading away anything, etc...)

So there are options, but if we don't get any of these or the M&M Boys then lets go with our pitchers instead of adding additional retreads.

Fingers Crossed the FO can pull a second miracle out of the hat that doesn't strip our farms system.

BTW Fun Fact: Only one pitcher was listed with an availability of NONE.
Garret Cole, NYY.

Pax, y'all

[Brandon]

I am going to add that I would be cool with Winder getting a few starts while Cueto spends time in extended spring training after signing.  But we really could use more depth.

[IndianaTwin]

I'm going to approach this from a numbers/roster management perspective. 

1. My preference is to trade for a starter vs. signing a free agent, for two reasons. First, what's out there on the trade market is better. Second, any free agent signed at this point is going to need significant ramp-up time anyway, so they aren't going to be available until mid- to late-April. 
2. The 40-man is full, with the potential exception of being able to move Enlow to the 60-man.
3. A "normal" roster has 13 pitchers and 13 position players these days. However, a 28-man roster seems to be a given for the first few weeks of the season. The extra two spots will almost certainly go to pitchers, leaving us with a 15-man staff. That's a one, followed by a five -- 15. 
4. According to MLB.com, there are currently 17 pitchers on the 40-man roster who haven't already been optioned to the minors. If you assume that Gray, Bundy, Ober and Ryan are in the rotation, that leaves Alcala, Cotton, Duffey, Duran, Jax, Moran, Rogers, Romero, Smith, Stashak, Thielbar, Thorpe, and Winder -- 13 guys for the remaining 11 spots on the roster.
5. In the first three times through the rotation, the No. 5 spot gets the Dodgers, Boston and The Team That Plays in the Monument to Cement, But Whom Shall Not Be Named (hereinafter, "TTTPitMtCBWSNBN"). While I'm cautious by nature and would like to see Winder get more AAA innings in general, I'm especially cautious about throwing him to those guys for his first three major league starts.
6. I'm going to say it, folks. Bullpen. Even if the first three games bring less than stellar starts, a bullpen should be relatively rested for games 5, 10 and 15. Not only do I not want to throw Winder into the matchups against LAD, Bos and TTTPitMtCBWSNBN, but those games are a recipe for bullpen. With an 11-man bullpen, you play matchups throughout the game, likely no one seeing a batter twice. And if they score big, as they are likely to do, hello Lewis Thorpe -- take one for the team. (Also, I try to sandwich the bullpen game by putting Gray and Bundy in the Nos. 1 and 4 spots, with the hope of them saving the bullpen to at least some extent.) 
7. In that scenario, I roll Winder off to St. Paul, where he pitches a managed workload (60-75 pitches?) that saves his bullets. By the end of April, when the roster goes back to 26, he would be able to come up and get teams like Detroit, Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Oakland, Houston, teams with a greater opportunity for early success than having to go against LAD, Bos and TTTPitMtCBWSNBN.
8. With Gray, Bundy, Ober and Ryan in the rotation, the number of innings they threw last year, and the inevitable injuries that happen, it's a given that we are going to be calling on additional guys to move into the rotation throughout the year. I'd rather have the next guys up be someone who is coming off success at AAA than someone who is struggling. If that's Winder, great. But if he's been struggling, I'd rather have that struggling happen east of the river, rather than west. Said another way, waiting until late-April allows the No. 5 spot to go to the best of Winder, Balazovic, Sands, etc., all guys that we are likely to see at some point this year if they stay healthy. 
9. Waiting to bring Winder or one of the others up also provides a little time for some guys to pitch themselves off the 40-man, etc., which will be necessary for future roster management, including if they want to use Coulombe, Gonzalez, Minaya and Smeltzer if they've shown themselves worthy.
10. So yeah, I send him down, with the hope of debuting in the Detroit or Baltimore series in late April/early May.
11. But I still try to trade for a starter or two.  

[Tibs]

I mean Winder is 25 and at some point we need to see what he and all the other SP prospects we have can do. It would be neat if we could pull off another trade for a starter, but going with Winder as the 5th starter isn't going to damage him.

[wsnydes]

Winder is likely to play a role in the Twins fate this season whether he's on the opening day roster or not.  And if this team doesn't bring in any more rotation options, you have to fill out a rotation somehow.  If he earns the spot, I don't know why you wouldn't let him pitch.  He'll likely struggle like most rookies, so holding him back because of that is foolhardy.  

[MMMordabito]

I'm not against getting another arm in the rotation, but I won't consider it a disappointment if it's Winder. After all, the team has 6 years of control, and he doesn't cost any prospects. His salary will also be easy to work into the payroll.

Who knows? Maybe it will be both and a six-man rotation.

[South Dakota Tom]

Some things are going to have to go right for the team.  One pitcher coming up and dominating would be necessary to any recipe for (ultimate) success, and probably a second stalwart #4+ along with playoff-worthy starters among the 1-4 we already have.

You think a frontline starter is coming along who is gonna get inexpensive as the year rolls on?  Best chance of that is a rental (my preference) in the Doyle Alexander mode. Best part is that we can do both.  Adding that final piece becomes good strategy on a team that is one piece away, but this whole thing never happens without one or two young pups pitching nosebleed baseball.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

6 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I agree with you Cody. Winder shouldn't be considered as starting the season as #5 SP. It wouldn't be fair to the team to give up the chance to compete in 2022 by slating Winder in, w/o no real back-up plan. Just throw Winder in there and see if he swims if not oh well I don't care if we compete, I don't like that attitude. Not only that, it wouldn't be fair to put Winder in that situation and pressure. 

We need another veteran front line SP as plan A. Later have Winder put into a controlled rotating long reief corp. That gives Winder a chance to get used to the waters before he's thrown into the deep end. Last season they experimented with poor or inexperienced 3/4 OFers with no real plan B and that helped sink the Twins. Lets have better options this season and compete and even win a post season game. Let's not give up on that!

Agreed, if the FO can swing a trade for a #1 or 2 type starter, that doesn’t break the prospect bank, they should pull the trigger.

that outcome looks less likely by the day. It’s hard to pull off that trade.

more likely, as has been tip-toed around, is “Sign Cueto” or “roll with Winder and put the youth through the meat grinder”.

like others here, I’d rather watch a youth movement than watch Eddie Harris wipe bodily fluids on the ball and pray

[specialiststeve]

Twin's will wait for more teams to trim down and see if they can find an arm that way.. 

Then figure out we need to trade for a good arm and give up a few prospects... 

Would be good with Manea for less of a price and let the youngsters get one more year of experience. 

Other thing is we NEED to prove to Correa that we are serious about contending or he will walk...

 

[minman1982]

4 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

I'm going to approach this from a numbers/roster management perspective. 

1. My preference is to trade for a starter vs. signing a free agent, for two reasons. First, what's out there on the trade market is better. Second, any free agent signed at this point is going to need significant ramp-up time anyway, so they aren't going to be available until mid- to late-April. 
2. The 40-man is full, with the potential exception of being able to move Enlow to the 60-man.
3. A "normal" roster has 13 pitchers and 13 position players these days. However, a 28-man roster seems to be a given for the first few weeks of the season. The extra two spots will almost certainly go to pitchers, leaving us with a 15-man staff. That's a one, followed by a five -- 15. 
4. According to MLB.com, there are currently 17 pitchers on the 40-man roster who haven't already been optioned to the minors. If you assume that Gray, Bundy, Ober and Ryan are in the rotation, that leaves Alcala, Cotton, Duffey, Duran, Jax, Moran, Rogers, Romero, Smith, Stashak, Thielbar, Thorpe, and Winder -- 13 guys for the remaining 11 spots on the roster.
5. In the first three times through the rotation, the No. 5 spot gets the Dodgers, Boston and The Team That Plays in the Monument to Cement, But Whom Shall Not Be Named (hereinafter, "TTTPitMtCBWSNBN"). While I'm cautious by nature and would like to see Winder get more AAA innings in general, I'm especially cautious about throwing him to those guys for his first three major league starts.
6. I'm going to say it, folks. Bullpen. Even if the first three games bring less than stellar starts, a bullpen should be relatively rested for games 5, 10 and 15. Not only do I not want to throw Winder into the matchups against LAD, Bos and TTTPitMtCBWSNBN, but those games are a recipe for bullpen. With an 11-man bullpen, you play matchups throughout the game, likely no one seeing a batter twice. And if they score big, as they are likely to do, hello Lewis Thorpe -- take one for the team. (Also, I try to sandwich the bullpen game by putting Gray and Bundy in the Nos. 1 and 4 spots, with the hope of them saving the bullpen to at least some extent.) 
7. In that scenario, I roll Winder off to St. Paul, where he pitches a managed workload (60-75 pitches?) that saves his bullets. By the end of April, when the roster goes back to 26, he would be able to come up and get teams like Detroit, Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Oakland, Houston, teams with a greater opportunity for early success than having to go against LAD, Bos and TTTPitMtCBWSNBN.
8. With Gray, Bundy, Ober and Ryan in the rotation, the number of innings they threw last year, and the inevitable injuries that happen, it's a given that we are going to be calling on additional guys to move into the rotation throughout the year. I'd rather have the next guys up be someone who is coming off success at AAA than someone who is struggling. If that's Winder, great. But if he's been struggling, I'd rather have that struggling happen east of the river, rather than west. Said another way, waiting until late-April allows the No. 5 spot to go to the best of Winder, Balazovic, Sands, etc., all guys that we are likely to see at some point this year if they stay healthy. 
9. Waiting to bring Winder or one of the others up also provides a little time for some guys to pitch themselves off the 40-man, etc., which will be necessary for future roster management, including if they want to use Coulombe, Gonzalez, Minaya and Smeltzer if they've shown themselves worthy.
10. So yeah, I send him down, with the hope of debuting in the Detroit or Baltimore series in late April/early May.
11. But I still try to trade for a starter or two.  

I like the idea of sending Winder down to start the season and maybe using a few bullpen games in the first three times through the rotation.  If there will be a 28 man roster to start the season, that gives you enough bullpen depth to pull this off.  It is also worth noting that while Ober and Ryan were good last year, the sample size on them is very small.  It is certainly possible that one or both of these guys plays themself out of a starting spot, in which case Winder (or someone else) will need to step up. 

Either way, I think the Twins are going to need to get another established major league level starting pitcher if they are going to actually try to compete this year.  I could see the FO waiting to see what happens in the first month before giving up any of the farm to get a pitcher by trade.