I Know It’s Early, but some observations on the team

[Otwins]

4 hours ago, The Mad King said:

Buxton batting leadoff... Think Ricky Henderson. 

 

Smeltzer - turned in a decent performance today. He'll definately pitch in the show sometime this year 

During the broadcast they mention Smeltzer had a herniated disc in his neck that affected his left elbow and the feeling in his fingers. He was definitely worse last year than the year before. He looks much better than anything I remember last year.

[gil4]

4 hours ago, The Mad King said:

Buxton batting leadoff... Think Ricky Henderson. 

Buxton and Henderson has the same OBP in their age 27 seasons - .358.  Unfortunately, that was by far the highest OBP Buxton had and the lowest OB Henderson had from age 21 through age 43.  Henderson's career OBP was .401. Buxton's is .299.  I expect he will do better than .299, but forgive me if I'm not ready to think Henderson just yet.

[dex8425]

12 hours ago, The Mad King said:

Buxton batting leadoff... Think Ricky Henderson. 

 

Smeltzer - turned in a decent performance today. He'll definately pitch in the show sometime this year 

Rickey was a super patient obp-king who walked a ton and had a little pop. Buxton is not patient, doesn't walk at all, and strikes out a lot but also slugs a lot more. They're not really that similar of hitters. Buxton is more like...Andruw Jones? 

[Mark G]

On 3/27/2022 at 8:05 AM, PopRiveter said:

This sounded right to me, but it got me thinking so I looked up splits and was surprised at what I saw.

In 2021, 42% of all Twins PA’s came with men on base, and they hit 38% of their HR’s in that situation.

Over Buxton’s career, 43% of his PA’s have been with men on, and only 34% of his HR’s were in that situation. So he’s been a little more solo-homer prone, but not dramatically.

However in 2021, only 37% of his PA’s came with men on and 36% of his HR’s came with men on. So virtually no skew. He was almost equally likely to homer in either situation. It was just a matter of opportunity.

I did not expect the numbers to say that.

 

I can't argue with any of the stats you gave.  Just like my saying 19 home runs only producing 32 RBI's means a lot of solos, your numbers give a different perspective.  My only follow up might be that with his 19 home runs he also had 23 doubles, and with the 19 home runs still only had 32 RBI's (I didn't pay attention to how many singles he may have had - did they produce any of his RBI's?).  Can he always be hitting with no one on base, to have 42 extra base hits and only 32 RBI's?  

Please don't get me wrong; I am not saying he isn't a bat we need in the line up, not to mention his defense.  I just think with his speed, and the fact he would be guaranteed the most at bats each game, he might be better utilized in the lead off spot, what with guys like Arraez, Polanco, and now Correa behind him.  Man, would I love to see that top 4 every game (if they can all stay healthy).  Thanks for the other perspective, though; it really keeps me thinking when I see those kind of stats. 

[Cap'n Piranha]

On 3/26/2022 at 7:36 AM, chpettit19 said:

I love Buxton in the leadoff spot. Acuna Jr seems to be a pretty decent leadoff hitter. Buxton 1 and Arraez 2 is what I was thinking before the Correa deal. I much prefer Arraez behind Buck since Arraez is fine working deep counts and not afraid to hit with 2 strikes giving Buxton time to take a base if he wants. Buxton-Arraez-Correa-Polanco maybe? It'll be interesting to see what they do, but I like Buxton at the top.

I'm not so sure if this is the best way to go.  Ideally, I would like Buxton to be able to hit behind someone so his XBH drive in some runs, but we don't really have anyone that fits the mold I'd be looking for (good OBP + good speed).  As such, I agree that Buxton batting leadoff is an acceptable idea, but since the #9 hitter therefore needs to have good speed to avoid clogging bases in front of Buxton, who bats ninth?  It can't be Urshela, Jeffers, or Sanchez (all of whom are bottom quartile in sprint speed--for what it's worth, Arraez was more than a ft/sec faster than any of those 3 last year).  So are we then dropping Kiriloff, Sano, or Kepler to #9?

I'm ok with Arraez behind Buxton in the sense that Arraez' ability to put the ball in play is a good thing when you have Buxton's speed on the bases, but I'm not sure if that's worth the tradeoff of having your best power hitter by SLG getting a guaranteed 20-25% of his PA's with no one on, and the others behind the worst OBP guys on the team.

[chpettit19]

8 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

I'm not so sure if this is the best way to go.  Ideally, I would like Buxton to be able to hit behind someone so his XBH drive in some runs, but we don't really have anyone that fits the mold I'd be looking for (good OBP + good speed).  As such, I agree that Buxton batting leadoff is an acceptable idea, but since the #9 hitter therefore needs to have good speed to avoid clogging bases in front of Buxton, who bats ninth?  It can't be Urshela, Jeffers, or Sanchez (all of whom are bottom quartile in sprint speed--for what it's worth, Arraez was more than a ft/sec faster than any of those 3 last year).  So are we then dropping Kiriloff, Sano, or Kepler to #9?

I'm ok with Arraez behind Buxton in the sense that Arraez' ability to put the ball in play is a good thing when you have Buxton's speed on the bases, but I'm not sure if that's worth the tradeoff of having your best power hitter by SLG getting a guaranteed 20-25% of his PA's with no one on, and the others behind the worst OBP guys on the team.

I don't think the 9th hole hitter's speed is as important if it's not someone like Arraez. I don't want Buxton hitting directly behind Arraez who gets on base at a .375 clip while hitting for minimum power so is mostly on first when he reaches as opposed to someone like Jeffers who gets on base at a .285 clip but hits for more power so is less likely to be on first really slowing Buck down. There's always going to be someone slower than Buck in front of him, but I'd rather have that slow guy on first less often. I think Arraez after Buxton frees up Buxton to do a lot more with his speed while the Twins have Polanco and Correa to be the XBH guys driving in Buxton and Arraez. 

If the Twins didn't have Polanco and Correa it'd be a different story (and the offense would be so incredibly bad), but with those 2 (and Kirilloff who I think will end up in the 5 spot for most of the year) behind Buxton and Arraez I think it produces more runs. If Buxton reaches and Arraez doesn't Buxton is still scoring from first on a double from Correa or Polanco. If Buxton doesn't reach, but Arraez does you're not really keeping Correa or Polanco from turning a single into a double or a double into a triple as they aren't that kind of fast, but you still have a guy on if one of them pops one into the seats.

[Cap'n Piranha]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't think the 9th hole hitter's speed is as important if it's not someone like Arraez. I don't want Buxton hitting directly behind Arraez who gets on base at a .375 clip while hitting for minimum power so is mostly on first when he reaches as opposed to someone like Jeffers who gets on base at a .285 clip but hits for more power so is less likely to be on first really slowing Buck down. There's always going to be someone slower than Buck in front of him, but I'd rather have that slow guy on first less often. I think Arraez after Buxton frees up Buxton to do a lot more with his speed while the Twins have Polanco and Correa to be the XBH guys driving in Buxton and Arraez. 

If the Twins didn't have Polanco and Correa it'd be a different story (and the offense would be so incredibly bad), but with those 2 (and Kirilloff who I think will end up in the 5 spot for most of the year) behind Buxton and Arraez I think it produces more runs. If Buxton reaches and Arraez doesn't Buxton is still scoring from first on a double from Correa or Polanco. If Buxton doesn't reach, but Arraez does you're not really keeping Correa or Polanco from turning a single into a double or a double into a triple as they aren't that kind of fast, but you still have a guy on if one of them pops one into the seats.

Other than Buxton last year was on first barely more often than second/third/rounding the bases.  Of Buxton's 91 times on base, 49 were via single, walk, or HBP (I'm not sure how many times he landed on first as part of a fielder's choice), and 42 via 2B or HR--he interestingly had no 3B last year.  And that to me is where the idea of wanting to keep the bases clear for Byron, while still something I would like to do, is losing some of it's allure--this isn't early career Buxton that slugs in the low .400s--he's increased his SLG for 3 straight seasons, and I see no reason right now to assume he won't continue to hit for good power.  As such, keeping the bases clear for him has reduced in value, while having men on base for him has increased in value.

As I said, I don't hate a Buxton-Arraez-Polanco-Correa-Kiriloff top 5--that's really freakin' good.  But I also think there is some merit to an Arraez-Polanco-Buxton-Correa-Kiriloff top 5 as well.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Other than Buxton last year was on first barely more often than second/third/rounding the bases.  Of Buxton's 91 times on base, 49 were via single, walk, or HBP (I'm not sure how many times he landed on first as part of a fielder's choice), and 42 via 2B or HR--he interestingly had no 3B last year.  And that to me is where the idea of wanting to keep the bases clear for Byron, while still something I would like to do, is losing some of it's allure--this isn't early career Buxton that slugs in the low .400s--he's increased his SLG for 3 straight seasons, and I see no reason right now to assume he won't continue to hit for good power.  As such, keeping the bases clear for him has reduced in value, while having men on base for him has increased in value.

As I said, I don't hate a Buxton-Arraez-Polanco-Correa-Kiriloff top 5--that's really freakin' good.  But I also think there is some merit to an Arraez-Polanco-Buxton-Correa-Kiriloff top 5 as well.

How many of those 2Bs were singles for 99% of other hitters? How many bases did he steal (9) vs could he have stolen (because there was nobody on 2nd) after those 49 single, walk, or HBP appearances at 1B? How many times did he have to stop at 2nd on a ball in play he could've gone 1st to 3rd on because the guy who was on 2nd couldn't score ahead of him? How many of those doubles could've been triples had a guy not had to stop at 3rd in front of him (likely 0 or 1, maybe 2, but still)?

I wouldn't be upset with an Arraez-Polanco-Buxton-Correa-Kirilloff top 5 (or any order of those 5 guys), but I think simply looking at times he ended up at first after an AB vs 2nd or further is missing a lot of base running opportunities where his speed could be used to gain extra bases, and extra runs, by not being slowed by Arraez (or another high OBP, slow guy) being in front of him on the bases. If they didn't have anyone else who could slug it'd make more sense to me to drop him, but slugging hasn't been the Twins problem under Falvine, manufacturing runs has. Buxton without a base clogger in front of him is their best option to manufacture runs. And I think hitting him leadoff gives you the best opportunity to have him with freedom on the bases. 

To me the Twins have a lot of guys who can slug and very few who can run so I'd do what I can to free up the guys who can run to actually be able to take advantage of that skill. Hitting behind guys who are unlikely to be only 1 base ahead of Buxton gives the Twins the biggest chance to take advantage of his speed. And since Correa and Polanco (and I think Kirilloff) are more than capable as 3-4-5 hitters for driving in runs I think you gain more advantage by having Buxton free to take advantage of their extra base hits.

Basically Buxton gets further along the bases on a Polanco (or Correa) double (or single) than Polanco (or Correa) does on a Buxton double (or single) so I'd put him ahead of those guys to take advantage of those extra bases he can take. Polanco on 3rd with Buxton on 2nd after a Buxton double isn't as good as Buxton scoring and Polanco on 2nd after a Polanco double.

But at the end of the day if those 5 guys are hitting the way we all hope, and expect, them to they should be able to produce a lot of runs no matter what order you put them in.

[PopRiveter]

17 hours ago, Mark G said:

I can't argue with any of the stats you gave.  Just like my saying 19 home runs only producing 32 RBI's means a lot of solos, your numbers give a different perspective.  My only follow up might be that with his 19 home runs he also had 23 doubles, and with the 19 home runs still only had 32 RBI's (I didn't pay attention to how many singles he may have had - did they produce any of his RBI's?).  Can he always be hitting with no one on base, to have 42 extra base hits and only 32 RBI's?  

Please don't get me wrong; I am not saying he isn't a bat we need in the line up, not to mention his defense.  I just think with his speed, and the fact he would be guaranteed the most at bats each game, he might be better utilized in the lead off spot, what with guys like Arraez, Polanco, and now Correa behind him.  Man, would I love to see that top 4 every game (if they can all stay healthy).  Thanks for the other perspective, though; it really keeps me thinking when I see those kind of stats. 

I'm inclined to agree with your conclusion too. His skill set seems so well suited for the top of the lineup. Especially since he's such a threat on the bases. Also, every day he's healthy, I want him to bat as often as possible. He's my choice for leadoff.

I didn't dig into the splits to make a counterargument. I was just curious if my impression matched reality and I was surprised to see what I saw. 

But here's another layer. Look at his situational splits in 2021:

Bases Empty:   .270/.317/.601

Men On:        .368/.427/.724

RISP:         .239/.300/.500

 

I almost can't understand how it possible that his production was so inflated with men on base while noticeably deflated with runners in scoring position. Still, he slugged .500 with RISP. I can certainly live with that. And It's probably an anomaly since he had only 50 PA with runners in scoring position.

I come away from this convinced that his low RBI total is mostly due to opportunity. Even though batting him leadoff would carry that trend forward, I would still do it. He's just so fast and disruptive. Every time he gets on base with no outs, he has a chance to score even without a subsequent big hit. I think that maximizes his impact.

Then again, if he's hitting home runs at a 40hr pace, I might be saying something totally different by June.

[Cap'n Piranha]

55 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

How many of those 2Bs were singles for 99% of other hitters? How many bases did he steal (9) vs could he have stolen (because there was nobody on 2nd) after those 49 single, walk, or HBP appearances at 1B? How many times did he have to stop at 2nd on a ball in play he could've gone 1st to 3rd on because the guy who was on 2nd couldn't score ahead of him? How many of those doubles could've been triples had a guy not had to stop at 3rd in front of him (likely 0 or 1, maybe 2, but still)?

I wouldn't be upset with an Arraez-Polanco-Buxton-Correa-Kirilloff top 5 (or any order of those 5 guys), but I think simply looking at times he ended up at first after an AB vs 2nd or further is missing a lot of base running opportunities where his speed could be used to gain extra bases, and extra runs, by not being slowed by Arraez (or another high OBP, slow guy) being in front of him on the bases. If they didn't have anyone else who could slug it'd make more sense to me to drop him, but slugging hasn't been the Twins problem under Falvine, manufacturing runs has. Buxton without a base clogger in front of him is their best option to manufacture runs. And I think hitting him leadoff gives you the best opportunity to have him with freedom on the bases. 

To me the Twins have a lot of guys who can slug and very few who can run so I'd do what I can to free up the guys who can run to actually be able to take advantage of that skill. Hitting behind guys who are unlikely to be only 1 base ahead of Buxton gives the Twins the biggest chance to take advantage of his speed. And since Correa and Polanco (and I think Kirilloff) are more than capable as 3-4-5 hitters for driving in runs I think you gain more advantage by having Buxton free to take advantage of their extra base hits.

Basically Buxton gets further along the bases on a Polanco (or Correa) double (or single) than Polanco (or Correa) does on a Buxton double (or single) so I'd put him ahead of those guys to take advantage of those extra bases he can take. Polanco on 3rd with Buxton on 2nd after a Buxton double isn't as good as Buxton scoring and Polanco on 2nd after a Polanco double.

But at the end of the day if those 5 guys are hitting the way we all hope, and expect, them to they should be able to produce a lot of runs no matter what order you put them in.

I get what you're driving at here, I just think it's putting way too much emphasis on Buxton's speed as the tool we want to take advantage of.  Of hitters with 200+ PAs last year, Buxton led the league in SLG by .032 --Bryce Harper is second was closer in SLG to Frank Schwindel in 8th than to Buxton in 1st.  Buxton was 2nd in ISO (behind Zunino by .002, despite having a BA .080 points higher), so his SLG was built on XBH, not getting a lot of singles.

I like the idea of Buxton running wild on the bases, but I like the idea of Buxton driving in runs more.  I'd rather slow him down and give him more chances to drive guys in as the best hitter on the team, as opposed to limit his ability to drive guys in so he can steal a couple more bases, go first to third here and there, and score from second on singles.

This is also accentuated by the fact that even if the guy batting ninth only has a .300 OBP, that means 20ish% of the non-1st inning PAs for Buxton if he hits leadoff have a guy on first in front of him anyways, and assuming it will be Jeffers, Urshela, or Sanchez, a guy who is a full ft/sec slower than Arraez.  Even if we assume a .375 OBP for Buxton (which is higher than he's ever done), a .200 OBP on first (i.e. take out HR, 3B, and 2B) for the Jeffers/Sanchez/Urshela group, and a .350 OBP on first for Arraez, the delta between Buxton behind Arraez on first v one of the other three on first is about 5.5 out of every 100 PAs.  We want to dramatically reduce Buxton's opportunity to hit with runner(s) on base, all so he can have clear bases in front of him an extra 5 times a month?

[Cap'n Piranha]

6 hours ago, PopRiveter said:

I'm inclined to agree with your conclusion too. His skill set seems so well suited for the top of the lineup. Especially since he's such a threat on the bases. Also, every day he's healthy, I want him to bat as often as possible. He's my choice for leadoff.

I didn't dig into the splits to make a counterargument. I was just curious if my impression matched reality and I was surprised to see what I saw. 

But here's another layer. Look at his situational splits in 2021:

Bases Empty:   .270/.317/.601

Men On:        .368/.427/.724

RISP:         .239/.300/.500

 

I almost can't understand how it possible that his production was so inflated with men on base while noticeably deflated with runners in scoring position. Still, he slugged .500 with RISP. I can certainly live with that. And It's probably an anomaly since he had only 50 PA with runners in scoring position.

I come away from this convinced that his low RBI total is mostly due to opportunity. Even though batting him leadoff would carry that trend forward, I would still do it. He's just so fast and disruptive. Every time he gets on base with no outs, he has a chance to score even without a subsequent big hit. I think that maximizes his impact.

Then again, if he's hitting home runs at a 40hr pace, I might be saying something totally different by June.

Buxton's ability to use his speed to score without needing a big hit to knock him in does not maximize his ability; it maximizes his speed.  But the reason Buxton has a ceiling of MVP is not just because he's fast--if it was Billy Hamilton would have been one of the best players of the last 8 years.  If Buxton is competing for MVP it's because he's hitting for power, and that aspect of Byron's game is not maximized if he's hitting leadoff behind our worst OBP guys, as opposed to after our best OBP guys.

[chpettit19]

48 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

I get what you're driving at here, I just think it's putting way too much emphasis on Buxton's speed as the tool we want to take advantage of.  Of hitters with 200+ PAs last year, Buxton led the league in SLG by .032 --Bryce Harper is second was closer in SLG to Frank Schwindel in 8th than to Buxton in 1st.  Buxton was 2nd in ISO (behind Zunino by .002, despite having a BA .080 points higher), so his SLG was built on XBH, not getting a lot of singles.

I like the idea of Buxton running wild on the bases, but I like the idea of Buxton driving in runs more.  I'd rather slow him down and give him more chances to drive guys in as the best hitter on the team, as opposed to limit his ability to drive guys in so he can steal a couple more bases, go first to third here and there, and score from second on singles.

This is also accentuated by the fact that even if the guy batting ninth only has a .300 OBP, that means 20ish% of the non-1st inning PAs for Buxton if he hits leadoff have a guy on first in front of him anyways, and assuming it will be Jeffers, Urshela, or Sanchez, a guy who is a full ft/sec slower than Arraez.  Even if we assume a .375 OBP for Buxton (which is higher than he's ever done), a .200 OBP on first (i.e. take out HR, 3B, and 2B) for the Jeffers/Sanchez/Urshela group, and a .350 OBP on first for Arraez, the delta between Buxton behind Arraez on first v one of the other three on first is about 5.5 out of every 100 PAs.  We want to dramatically reduce Buxton's opportunity to hit with runner(s) on base, all so he can have clear bases in front of him an extra 5 times a month?

I don't expect Buxton to lead the league in slugging over 500+ plate appearances. I do expect Buxton to be in the top 5% of fastest guys in baseball for 500+ plate appearances. As they say, speed doesn't slump. The Twins were 9th in all of baseball in slugging last year. Their entire lineup (outside of Arraez) is built to slug. The one everyday player they have with big time speed is Buxton. I'm going to emphasize the skill that isn't replicated by the rest of the lineup. He may be the best slugger on the team, but his advantage over Correa, Polanco, Sano, etc. in his slugging is far smaller than his advantage over them in speed. Not to mention part of his slugging being built on his speed. Turning singles into doubles is part of what boosts his slugging.

Buxton can take advantage of the slugging in the rest of the lineup better than anyone else so I want him in front of all the other sluggers. Especially the really good ones. I'll go back to Buxton scoring on a Polanco double is better than Polanco being on 3rd on a Buxton double. So it's not just having the bases clear in front of him to take extra bases on his hits or steal bags, but to score on plays nobody else would even if there was a guy in front of him. Jeffers on second and Buxton on 1st for a Polanco double scores 2. Jeffers on second and Polanco on first scores 1 run on a Buxton double. I'll take the 2 runs over the 1. 

And, yes, if clear bases in front of him an extra 5 times a month leads to the team scoring even 1 more run that month then I want that.

[chpettit19]

36 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Buxton's ability to use his speed to score without needing a big hit to knock him in does not maximize his ability; it maximizes his speed.  But the reason Buxton has a ceiling of MVP is not just because he's fast--if it was Billy Hamilton would have been one of the best players of the last 8 years.  If Buxton is competing for MVP it's because he's hitting for power, and that aspect of Byron's game is not maximized if he's hitting leadoff behind our worst OBP guys, as opposed to after them.

If simply hitting for power makes someone an MVP Joey Gallo and Miguel Sano would be in the conversation every year. Ronald Acuna is in the discussion for MVP every year and he was hitting lead off in the NL behind pitchers. I think it's hard to argue his talents weren't being fully utilized. At the end of the day, though, the Twins top 4 or 5 will be quite good no matter what order you put them in (assuming they're healthy and producing as expected). 

[Cap'n Piranha]

16 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't expect Buxton to lead the league in slugging over 500+ plate appearances. I do expect Buxton to be in the top 5% of fastest guys in baseball for 500+ plate appearances. As they say, speed doesn't slump. The Twins were 9th in all of baseball in slugging last year. Their entire lineup (outside of Arraez) is built to slug. The one everyday player they have with big time speed is Buxton. I'm going to emphasize the skill that isn't replicated by the rest of the lineup. He may be the best slugger on the team, but his advantage over Correa, Polanco, Sano, etc. in his slugging is far smaller than his advantage over them in speed. Not to mention part of his slugging being built on his speed. Turning singles into doubles is part of what boosts his slugging.

Buxton can take advantage of the slugging in the rest of the lineup better than anyone else so I want him in front of all the other sluggers. Especially the really good ones. I'll go back to Buxton scoring on a Polanco double is better than Polanco being on 3rd on a Buxton double. So it's not just having the bases clear in front of him to take extra bases on his hits or steal bags, but to score on plays nobody else would even if there was a guy in front of him. Jeffers on second and Buxton on 1st for a Polanco double scores 2. Jeffers on second and Polanco on first scores 1 run on a Buxton double. I'll take the 2 runs over the 1. 

And, yes, if clear bases in front of him an extra 5 times a month leads to the team scoring even 1 more run that month then I want that.

Why would we think Buxton would lose power this year--was last year a fluke?  Even if he doesn't lead the league, he should still be near the top, right?  Last year 188 guys had 400 or more PAs, so if Buxton is in the top 10 in SLG, he's essentially top 5% of SLG guys in baseball.  Why are we giving so much priority to Buxton's speed as opposed to his power?  The best offensive players in baseball history have always been the ones that hit for power--given that Buxton can do that, why are we trying to reduce that tool in favor of his speed?  Yes, part of his SLG comes from turning singles into doubles, but how often does that actually happen?  Is there any data around that?  I know for sure that he hit almost as many HR as 2B last year, and that had nothing to do with his speed.

You're right that this team has more ability to SLG than run, but why does that mean we need to go out of the way to ensure the guys with speed use it?  That's like saying the Timberwolves have lots of guys who can shoot 3 pointers, but no one other than KAT who can play in the post, so let's reduce the amount of 3s KAT takes so he can shoot 2s in the paint (even though he's the best 3P shooter on the team).  Maybe Buxton scores from 1st on a double, but maybe he doesn't.  I am sure there are instances in the past where Buxton was on first, a guy hit a double, and Buxton ended up at third.

It's interesting to me that you're good with 5 PAs with clear bases for Buxton a month is worth it if it creates one run, while ignoring that keeping the bases clear also guarantees his HRs are solo--by definition that costs the Twins a run (at least).  There are certainly worse things than having Buxton on first with second and third empty, but I would gladly trade that for Buxton at the plate with runners on base every single time.

[RpR]

Gee Golly, I just was over at Gamecast and checking the lineup of a lot of teams; it seems the Minnesota Twins are the only team that has enough players listed, every game, to play two games at once.

Right now the only players with decent batting avg. are with a few exceptions, rookies or newbies; we do not have the power hitters from the last three years, it will be a long, long season.

Arraez, Buxton, Cave are the only vets, whose numbers look good, while Kiriloff and Larnach are the two best rookies, shizzam!

[chpettit19]

56 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Why would we think Buxton would lose power this year--was last year a fluke?  Even if he doesn't lead the league, he should still be near the top, right?  Last year 188 guys had 400 or more PAs, so if Buxton is in the top 10 in SLG, he's essentially top 5% of SLG guys in baseball.  Why are we giving so much priority to Buxton's speed as opposed to his power?  The best offensive players in baseball history have always been the ones that hit for power--given that Buxton can do that, why are we trying to reduce that tool in favor of his speed?  Yes, part of his SLG comes from turning singles into doubles, but how often does that actually happen?  Is there any data around that?  I know for sure that he hit almost as many HR as 2B last year, and that had nothing to do with his speed.

You're right that this team has more ability to SLG than run, but why does that mean we need to go out of the way to ensure the guys with speed use it?  That's like saying the Timberwolves have lots of guys who can shoot 3 pointers, but no one other than KAT who can play in the post, so let's reduce the amount of 3s KAT takes so he can shoot 2s in the paint (even though he's the best 3P shooter on the team).  Maybe Buxton scores from 1st on a double, but maybe he doesn't.  I am sure there are instances in the past where Buxton was on first, a guy hit a double, and Buxton ended up at third.

It's interesting to me that you're good with 5 PAs with clear bases for Buxton a month is worth it if it creates one run, while ignoring that keeping the bases clear also guarantees his HRs are solo--by definition that costs the Twins a run (at least).  There are certainly worse things than having Buxton on first with second and third empty, but I would gladly trade that for Buxton at the plate with runners on base every single time.

We're not reducing that tool. He can still hit for power in the leadoff spot. I expect Buxton to not be able to keep up a 50 HR pace. Which means he'll slug less.

We need to go out of our way to ensure guys maximize their tools, like speed, because that's how you score runs and win games. The KAT comparison doesn't work. You can either shoot a shot from the post or a shot from 3. You can't do both. Buxton can both hit for power and use his speed at the same time. It's not an either or situation. There were absolutely times when he was on first for a double and didn't score. But he's still got the best chance to score from first on the team.

It's interesting to me that you're good with him down in the order where he won't get as many PAs in general. I think a solo homer is worth more than not getting to hit at all. The stretches where he's on fire and hitting bombs once a game for a week will come and go with the stretches where he doesn't hit any for a week. His ability to run really fast around the bases won't go away all year.  

The expectation is that Buxton, Correa, and Polanco all hit for power and slug, is it not? Correa and Polanco around 30 HRs and Buxton around 40 sounds realistic to me. Doubles all relatively close to the same number (mid-30s). Trout has maxed out at 75 combined HRs and doubles so I'm not going to bet on Buxton going more than 75 combined HRs and 2Bs this year, which means he is slugging less than he did last year when he was on pace to blow that out of the water over a full season. If he hits at the pace he was last year for a full year it doesn't matter where he is in the lineup cuz he's having a literally historic season.

So we can more or less expect generally the same number of doubles out of the 3 hole no matter which one of those 3 are hitting there. Buxton gets an extra 10 HRs on the year. So you want him hitting lower to take advantage of 10 PAs over the course of the season. Shoot, I'll give you 20 extra homers in which case you're worried about those 20 extra PAs over the course of the season (3.3 per month) while you question me caring about not just the 5 extra a month with 1B clear for him, but every time he's on base with the team still having the same chance of a double being hit by the guys after him as if he were hitting and they were on base instead. If you accept that all 3 of those guys are going to hit mid-30s doubles (assuming health and all that) then the only real difference between which one is hitting 3rd is who is on base in front of them to take advantage of those doubles. I'd prefer Buxton be the one in front of those 35 doubles to score as many runs as possible on them. Not to mention him being on 2B after his doubles to score on their singles.

[Cap'n Piranha]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

We're not reducing that tool. He can still hit for power in the leadoff spot. I expect Buxton to not be able to keep up a 50 HR pace. Which means he'll slug less.

We need to go out of our way to ensure guys maximize their tools, like speed, because that's how you score runs and win games. The KAT comparison doesn't work. You can either shoot a shot from the post or a shot from 3. You can't do both. Buxton can both hit for power and use his speed at the same time. It's not an either or situation. There were absolutely times when he was on first for a double and didn't score. But he's still got the best chance to score from first on the team.

It's interesting to me that you're good with him down in the order where he won't get as many PAs in general. I think a solo homer is worth more than not getting to hit at all. The stretches where he's on fire and hitting bombs once a game for a week will come and go with the stretches where he doesn't hit any for a week. His ability to run really fast around the bases won't go away all year.  

The expectation is that Buxton, Correa, and Polanco all hit for power and slug, is it not? Correa and Polanco around 30 HRs and Buxton around 40 sounds realistic to me. Doubles all relatively close to the same number (mid-30s). Trout has maxed out at 75 combined HRs and doubles so I'm not going to bet on Buxton going more than 75 combined HRs and 2Bs this year, which means he is slugging less than he did last year when he was on pace to blow that out of the water over a full season. If he hits at the pace he was last year for a full year it doesn't matter where he is in the lineup cuz he's having a literally historic season.

So we can more or less expect generally the same number of doubles out of the 3 hole no matter which one of those 3 are hitting there. Buxton gets an extra 10 HRs on the year. So you want him hitting lower to take advantage of 10 PAs over the course of the season. Shoot, I'll give you 20 extra homers in which case you're worried about those 20 extra PAs over the course of the season (3.3 per month) while you question me caring about not just the 5 extra a month with 1B clear for him, but every time he's on base with the team still having the same chance of a double being hit by the guys after him as if he were hitting and they were on base instead. If you accept that all 3 of those guys are going to hit mid-30s doubles (assuming health and all that) then the only real difference between which one is hitting 3rd is who is on base in front of them to take advantage of those doubles. I'd prefer Buxton be the one in front of those 35 doubles to score as many runs as possible on them. Not to mention him being on 2B after his doubles to score on their singles.

The KAT comparison was perhaps poorly worded on my part, but the point is valid--if the Wolves insist KAT spend more time in the paint, even if he's not ultimately taking a shot, they are undeniably maximizing the post-up skills of their best post-up player.  But they are simultaneously not maximizing the skill of their best 3 point shooter.  It's the same with wanting Buxton to hit with the bases empty more often in order to maximize his on-base speed; you are not maximizing his power, which is detrimental--XBH are the best way to move runners around the bases, and taking the guy who is best at creating XBH, and putting him in a situation where his XBH are less likely to come with runners on base reduces the value of those XBH?  After all, which is better--a homer with no one on, a triple with 1 man on, or a double with 2 men on?

The number of PAs does not reduce that drastically from hitting 1st to hitting 3rd--last year for the Twins it was 745 for 1st, 727 for 2nd, and 713 for 3rd.  So yes, Buxton batting 3rd bats less often than Buxton batting 1st--but the value of the PA is higher, given that at least 162 of those 745 PAs had no one on base.  If you put your lowest OBP guys at the bottom of your order, the 1st spot also becomes more likely to start an inning, as it follows the guys most likely to make outs, as opposed to the high OBP guys at the top, who are the least likely to make outs.  I would rather have Buxton get 400 PAs, all with a runner on, than 500 PAs, none with a runner on.  You're right that Buxton's speed doesn't go away in the weeks where he goes 3 for 24 with 2bb and 12k--but given that he's not really getting on base that much in that week, his speed doesn't play up so much--it doesn't matter how fast you run if you're sitting on the bench.

You left out triples for Trout, as well as his injury history--if you add triples, he exceeded the 75 number in 2013 and 2014, and was on pace to do it in 2017, 2019, and 2020.  I want Buxton to hit lower because he has the most XBH, and the more bases a hit is worth, the less important the speed of the players on the bases is (that is, speed of runners is irrelevant on triples and homers, minorly relevant on doubles--the incidence of runners on 2nd or 3rd not scoring on a double is vanishingly rare--and majorly relevant on singles).  Buxton's speed is actually most relatively useful when the guy behind him hits singles (1st to third, scoring from second, scoring from third on balls that drop in front of an outfielder), so yes, I want Buxton's doubles pushing slower guys around the bases, since Buxton is less dependent than any other hitter the Twins have on needing an XBH to get around the bases.  I value his power over his speed, and his power is at it's most effective when there are runners on base.

If indeed we want Buxton to have clear bases in front of him so as to maximize his speed, does that mean that we would want any runner on first when Buxton comes up to automatically attempt to steal second, and not particularly care if he gets thrown out, as it still accomplishes the goal of having any runner at least 180 feet ahead of Buxton?

[Cap'n Piranha]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

If simply hitting for power makes someone an MVP Joey Gallo and Miguel Sano would be in the conversation every year. Ronald Acuna is in the discussion for MVP every year and he was hitting lead off in the NL behind pitchers. I think it's hard to argue his talents weren't being fully utilized. At the end of the day, though, the Twins top 4 or 5 will be quite good no matter what order you put them in (assuming they're healthy and producing as expected). 

I'm guessing, if given the choice of which lineup would generate more offense, 9 Joey Gallos or Miguel Sanos would dramatically outperform 9 Billy Hamiltons or Terrance Gores.

[chpettit19]

8 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

I'm guessing, if given the choice of which lineup would generate more offense, 9 Joey Gallos or Miguel Sanos would dramatically outperform 9 Billy Hamiltons or Terrance Gores.

Yes, but I picked actual good power hitter while you're choosing terrible speed players. How about 9 Gallos vs 9 Whit Merrifields or any other actually good speed player?

[Cap'n Piranha]

5 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Yes, but I picked actual good power hitter while you're choosing terrible speed players. How about 9 Gallos vs 9 Whit Merrifields or any other actually good speed player?

Joey Gallo has a career 114 career wRC+ and Merrifield is at 105, so yes, I think 9 Gallos is better than 9 Merrifields.

Also, for what it's worth, Merrifield was above league average in SLG every year of his career except 2016 (his first year when he only played half a season) except for 2021, when his wRC+ collapsed to 91.  It's almost like power is more impactful in modern baseball than speed.

[chpettit19]

36 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

The KAT comparison was perhaps poorly worded on my part, but the point is valid--if the Wolves insist KAT spend more time in the paint, even if he's not ultimately taking a shot, they are undeniably maximizing the post-up skills of their best post-up player.  But they are simultaneously not maximizing the skill of their best 3 point shooter.  It's the same with wanting Buxton to hit with the bases empty more often in order to maximize his on-base speed; you are not maximizing his power, which is detrimental--XBH are the best way to move runners around the bases, and taking the guy who is best at creating XBH, and putting him in a situation where his XBH are less likely to come with runners on base reduces the value of those XBH?  After all, which is better--a homer with no one on, a triple with 1 man on, or a double with 2 men on?

The number of PAs does not reduce that drastically from hitting 1st to hitting 3rd--last year for the Twins it was 745 for 1st, 727 for 2nd, and 713 for 3rd.  So yes, Buxton batting 3rd bats less often than Buxton batting 1st--but the value of the PA is higher, given that at least 162 of those 745 PAs had no one on base.  If you put your lowest OBP guys at the bottom of your order, the 1st spot also becomes more likely to start an inning, as it follows the guys most likely to make outs, as opposed to the high OBP guys at the top, who are the least likely to make outs.  I would rather have Buxton get 400 PAs, all with a runner on, than 500 PAs, none with a runner on.  You're right that Buxton's speed doesn't go away in the weeks where he goes 3 for 24 with 2bb and 12k--but given that he's not really getting on base that much in that week, his speed doesn't play up so much--it doesn't matter how fast you run if you're sitting on the bench.

You left out triples for Trout, as well as his injury history--if you add triples, he exceeded the 75 number in 2013 and 2014, and was on pace to do it in 2017, 2019, and 2020.  I want Buxton to hit lower because he has the most XBH, and the more bases a hit is worth, the less important the speed of the players on the bases is (that is, speed of runners is irrelevant on triples and homers, minorly relevant on doubles--the incidence of runners on 2nd or 3rd not scoring on a double is vanishingly rare--and majorly relevant on singles).  Buxton's speed is actually most relatively useful when the guy behind him hits singles (1st to third, scoring from second, scoring from third on balls that drop in front of an outfielder), so yes, I want Buxton's doubles pushing slower guys around the bases, since Buxton is less dependent than any other hitter the Twins have on needing an XBH to get around the bases.  I value his power over his speed, and his power is at it's most effective when there are runners on base.

If indeed we want Buxton to have clear bases in front of him so as to maximize his speed, does that mean that we would want any runner on first when Buxton comes up to automatically attempt to steal second, and not particularly care if he gets thrown out, as it still accomplishes the goal of having any runner at least 180 feet ahead of Buxton?

I don't want Buxton hitting with the bases empty and I even mentioned the bonus of Jeffers being a power hitter who is likely to be on second and not first when he reaches. And mentioned Jeffers being in front of Buxton when he hits lowering his slugging, but not his ability to score from first on doubles.

My example on Buxton's streaks weren't about getting on base they were about power. He's going to go on hot streaks where he's hitting a ton of HRs and "cold" streaks where he's still hitting, but isn't getting the HRs. You're misrepresenting what I said.

I left out Trouts injury history, yes, but I'm pretty sure Buxton has a pretty sizable history of injuries as well which is why I used Trout as the example. And even if I add in triples for Buxton you're looking at a handful on the season, not 20 or something. They are far more random than the doubles and HRs so I ignored them. Like how he had 0 last year in his massive slugging campaign you want to use as his baseline.

So I'll give you 20 more HRs than Correa or Polanco which means Buxton is hitting 50ish bombs this year. Plus 10 triples more than Correa or Polanco which is highly unlikely, but you can have it anyways. So he gets 30 extra XBHs compared to those guys (in fewer PAs than at least 1 of them who's hitting in front of him). The season is 6 months long and you told me he'd only get 5 extra PAs with nobody on first (I've never said I don't want guys on, I said I don't want a singles/OBP machine like Arraez in front of him on first at a .375 clip) during that time and that means it's a waste. Those 30 extra XBHs he'll get over Correa or Polanco give him 5 extra XBH a month. But leaves him behind slower runners (like Arraez) a higher percentage of the time with guys hitting behind him with lower chances of getting any sort of hit to take advantage of his speed. So our desired extras cancel out yet you've also canceled out the ability to use his speed more often by having the next 2 best hitters on the team behind him being able to take advantage of his speed.

The point is that the difference between Buxton, Correa, and Polanco in terms of XBHs is not big enough to counter balance not being able to take advantage of the tool he has that nobody else on the team does. Unless you think he's hitting more than 50 bombs and 10 triples.

 

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Joey Gallo has a career 114 career wRC+ and Merrifield is at 105, so yes, I think 9 Gallos is better than 9 Merrifields.

Also, for what it's worth, Merrifield was above league average in SLG every year of his career except 2016 (his first year when he only played half a season) except for 2021, when his wRC+ collapsed to 91.  It's almost like power is more impactful in modern baseball than speed.

And Buxton is going to slug above league average. The point was that you picked 2 awful, 1 tool players to try to prove your point. Yes, power is more impactful. The point you're ignoring is that the Twins have power. In 8 of 9 lineup spots. They have speed in 1. Your complaint is that Buxton will hit without guys on base too often, but you think 9 Gallos wouldn't be hitting a ton of solo bombs? 

[Cap'n Piranha]

26 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

And Buxton is going to slug above league average. The point was that you picked 2 awful, 1 tool players to try to prove your point. Yes, power is more impactful. The point you're ignoring is that the Twins have power. In 8 of 9 lineup spots. They have speed in 1. Your complaint is that Buxton will hit without guys on base too often, but you think 9 Gallos wouldn't be hitting a ton of solo bombs? 

Having only 1 guy out of 9 with speed, as compared to 8 of 9 with power doesn't all the sudden make the speed more valuable.  Having 9 Porsches is better than 8 Porsches and 1 Ford F-150 if the goal is to create the most valuable car collection.  The point is that even after you picked your speed guy option, the power guys were still better, and the more your speed guy became a speed only player, the less valuable he became. 

9 Gallos hitting solo HRs is not germane to my desire to have Buxton hit with runners on base, and as such is a Strawman argument.  I don't want Buxton hitting with the bases empty because PAs are more likely to result in runs if there are men on base.  I don't know how this is debatable; it's obvious from a logical standpoint, and it's borne out by years of baseball research.  As such, I want runners on base when my best hitter, who by definition is the most likely to create run-producing outcomes, comes to the plate; I would prefer the lineup be constructed to reflect that.  A hypothetical world where Joey Gallo and 8 identical clones fill out a batting order gives no wiggle room for lineup construction--it doesn't matter who bats in front of Joey Gallo; the answer is Joey Gallo.

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Having only 1 guy out of 9 with speed, as compared to 8 of 9 with power doesn't all the sudden make the speed more valuable.  Having 9 Porsches is better than 8 Porsches and 1 Ford F-150 if the goal is to create the most valuable car collection.  The point is that even after you picked your speed guy option, the power guys were still better, and the more your speed guy became a speed only player, the less valuable he became. 

9 Gallos hitting solo HRs is not germane to my desire to have Buxton hit with runners on base, and as such is a Strawman argument.  I don't want Buxton hitting with the bases empty because PAs are more likely to result in runs if there are men on base.  I don't know how this is debatable; it's obvious from a logical standpoint, and it's borne out by years of baseball research.  As such, I want runners on base when my best hitter, who by definition is the most likely to create run-producing outcomes, comes to the plate; I would prefer the lineup be constructed to reflect that.  A hypothetical world where Joey Gallo and 8 identical clones fill out a batting order gives no wiggle room for lineup construction--it doesn't matter who bats in front of Joey Gallo; the answer is Joey Gallo.

You're the one who brought up Billy Hamilton in comparison to Buxton. I was just extending your strawman.

[IndianaTwin]

On 3/28/2022 at 1:10 PM, Mark G said:

I can't argue with any of the stats you gave.  Just like my saying 19 home runs only producing 32 RBI's means a lot of solos, your numbers give a different perspective.  My only follow up might be that with his 19 home runs he also had 23 doubles, and with the 19 home runs still only had 32 RBI's (I didn't pay attention to how many singles he may have had - did they produce any of his RBI's?).  Can he always be hitting with no one on base, to have 42 extra base hits and only 32 RBI's?  

Please don't get me wrong; I am not saying he isn't a bat we need in the line up, not to mention his defense.  I just think with his speed, and the fact he would be guaranteed the most at bats each game, he might be better utilized in the lead off spot, what with guys like Arraez, Polanco, and now Correa behind him.  Man, would I love to see that top 4 every game (if they can all stay healthy).  Thanks for the other perspective, though; it really keeps me thinking when I see those kind of stats. 

So here's another way to think about Buxton's doubles. First, one would think he'd have a lot of triples, but because of his power, he won't. Outfielders have to play him deep because of the power, so fewer of his gappers will get to the wall than they did for Willie McGee, et. al.

BUT, because outfielders have to play deep on him, many of his bloop and soft line-drive singles turn into doubles. So, for example, it's very possible for Buxton to hit a bloop-single-turned-double that doesn't score the runner from first, particularly if he's batting second behind the relatively slow Arraez or if it's a bottom of the order guy like Jeffers or Urshela on base. 

By the way, I do agree with your preference to bat him leadoff -- I'm just offering another thought on why some of his stats are often going to look weird. 

[gil4]

On 3/27/2022 at 11:44 PM, gil4 said:

Henderson's career OBP was .401. Buxton's is .299.  I expect he will do better than .299, but forgive me if I'm not ready to think Henderson just yet.

My previous post might have sounded like I'm down on Buxton, but I'm not.  There have been many great players who didn't approach Henderson's OBP.  Buxton could become one if he stays healthy.  Even if that happens, I don't expect his skill set to remind me of Henderson.  
 

Best case - Henderson has a big edge on OBP and base stealing (although the latter would be less of an edge in value) while Buxton would have a small edge in power and a big edge on defense.  

[jimbo92107]

On 3/26/2022 at 8:01 AM, Doctor Gast said:

I have changed my position of Arraez leading off. He's not that fast or base path runner, he'll clog up the paths for the likes of #1 Buxton, #2 Polanco and #3 Correa. His ability to hit for contact, makes him better the hitter side of a hit & run situation and front of a slower HR type.

It'll be very interesting how they set up piggy-back system. Both Duran and Smeltzer look good and IMO are candidates for that system. Gray is a great addition to add quality innings but Bundy, IMO should be on short leash to maintain the amount of quality innings. To be the winner that Falvey claims to be we still need another experienced front line SP. With no experienced true MLB ready CF back-up, we will have to regrettably depend heavily on Celestestino again (not my ideal). Celestino could have been a very viable sub if he hadn't been rushed last season.

Arraez is okay as leadoff, but batting behind Buck, Po, and Co? Devastating. All three are fast with great bat skills, All three can steal, and Arraez has maybe the best bat-to-ball chops of them all. SMELL. THOSE. RIBBIES!

Otherwise, the team looks pretty good, especially up the middle, with the painful exception of Gary Sanchez, who appears to be the Bloody Ball Butcher from a horror film about catchers. I don't know if I've ever seen a professional catcher that lags behind the ball so much. This is NOT the guy you want behind the plate if your pitcher is liable to bounce a curve or a fork in the dirt. How many Twins pitchers do that? Especially if you're a curveball specialist (Smeltzer, Duffy, Rogers, etc.), you are likely to request a catcher change rather than throw a "wild pitch" to a guy that boots at least half the balls in the dirt. 

I really don't know about Sanchez. Right now he looks like a game-loser behind the plate. I would much rather have a weak-hitting defensive specialist like Ben Rortvedt than a guy whose glove can lose a game at any moment. Now I'm wondering if they can get El Cherubo back. 

[Prince William]

On 3/27/2022 at 9:50 AM, Squirrel said:

I don't think the OP was making any such claims

One can still think that it is hard to take this team seriously without the OP mentioning it .That would be God's way to early observation of the team.

[Squirrel]

3 hours ago, Prince William said:

One can still think that it is hard to take this team seriously without the OP mentioning it .That would be God's way to early observation of the team.

Again, no one is saying otherwise. The point is to please stay on topic.

[Cap'n Piranha]

44 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't want Buxton hitting with the bases empty and I even mentioned the bonus of Jeffers being a power hitter who is likely to be on second and not first when he reaches. And mentioned Jeffers being in front of Buxton when he hits lowering his slugging, but not his ability to score from first on doubles.

My example on Buxton's streaks weren't about getting on base they were about power. He's going to go on hot streaks where he's hitting a ton of HRs and "cold" streaks where he's still hitting, but isn't getting the HRs. You're misrepresenting what I said.

I left out Trouts injury history, yes, but I'm pretty sure Buxton has a pretty sizable history of injuries as well which is why I used Trout as the example. And even if I add in triples for Buxton you're looking at a handful on the season, not 20 or something. They are far more random than the doubles and HRs so I ignored them. Like how he had 0 last year in his massive slugging campaign you want to use as his baseline.

So I'll give you 20 more HRs than Correa or Polanco which means Buxton is hitting 50ish bombs this year. Plus 10 triples more than Correa or Polanco which is highly unlikely, but you can have it anyways. So he gets 30 extra XBHs compared to those guys (in fewer PAs than at least 1 of them who's hitting in front of him). The season is 6 months long and you told me he'd only get 5 extra PAs with nobody on first (I've never said I don't want guys on, I said I don't want a singles/OBP machine like Arraez in front of him on first at a .375 clip) during that time and that means it's a waste. Those 30 extra XBHs he'll get over Correa or Polanco give him 5 extra XBH a month. But leaves him behind slower runners (like Arraez) a higher percentage of the time with guys hitting behind him with lower chances of getting any sort of hit to take advantage of his speed. So our desired extras cancel out yet you've also canceled out the ability to use his speed more often by having the next 2 best hitters on the team behind him being able to take advantage of his speed.

The point is that the difference between Buxton, Correa, and Polanco in terms of XBHs is not big enough to counter balance not being able to take advantage of the tool he has that nobody else on the team does. Unless you think he's hitting more than 50 bombs and 10 triples.

 

If you don't want Buxton hitting with the bases empty, then wouldn't you want guys who are more likely to get on base hitting in front of him?  Jeffers is actually not likely to be on second--last year 68% of the time he got on base he was at first (that number may go up or down if fangraphs tracked how often he was on first as the result of a fielder's choice or error, or on second as the result of an error).  That said, I'm sure there weren't so many two base errors in Jeffer's PAs that he ended up on 2B, 3B or with a HR as often as a 1B, BB, or HBP.  So when you say you're good with Jeffers in front of Buxton, what you're saying is you want a guy even slower than Arraez (26.8 ft/sec, which may get better if he gets to DH more and therefore rests his knees) in Jeffers (25.8ft/sec, which may get worse as he gets more innings catching) hitting in front of Buxton, slowing him down even more, so that he can get more PAs (which are the least valuable kind) with no one on base?

I don't care if Buxton is behind slower runners.  That means he had a runner(s) on base for his PA, which is what we want.  Imagine this scenario--Byron Buxton is coming up to bat; do you want him to have someone on base, or do you want the bases to be empty?  The benefit of runners scoring on Buxton's XBHs (which he gets more of than anyone else on the roster) outweighs the benefit of Buxton potentially being able to advance further than a different runner on someone else's hit.  Saying you don't want a singles/OBP machine on in front of Buxton, but are fine with an even slower guy who will still be on first almost 70% of the time simply means you want fewer men on base for Buxton.