Johnny Cueto rumor

[nicksaviking]

3 hours ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

 

You two might be interested in the Fangraphs depth chart projections.

They have all current Twins SP with a combined 9.2 WAR. Gray 2.4, Bundy 1.4, Ober & Ryan at 1.8 each.

White Sox SP are projected at 14.8, Cleveland and Detroit at 10.7 each, and KC at 9.0.

I don't put a lot of weight in these projections, but they typically are conservative with young guys. Yet, even they demonstrate why signing these low end starters is a weak proposition. Stop spending 10M on a back end vet and 5M on an even more back end vet, spend 15M (or more please) on an actual useful pitcher (math for demonstration purposes only). The young misfits in the system are unlikely to be much of a step back from the bottom tier vets, if a step back at all.

[Mike Sixel]

31 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I don't put a lot of weight in these projections, but they typically are conservative with young guys. Yet, even they demonstrate why signing these low end starters is a weak proposition. Stop spending 10M on a back end vet and 5M on an even more back end vet, spend 15M (or more please) on an actual useful pitcher (math for demonstration purposes only). The young misfits in the system are unlikely to be much of a step back from the bottom tier vets, if a step back at all.

Agreed. 

[TheLeviathan]

I'm ok with Cueto as a patch.  You need a lot of arms to get through a year, but I'm really hoping they let the kids come up and give it a shot.  I'll always take talent over experience and waning ability.

[bean5302]

When it comes to projections, I view them with a grain of salt. Sometimes the performances of guys just doesn't feel right or line up with predictive stats (Ricky Nolasco). I already looked at Fangraphs's depth charts and projections and historical performances of players for my guesses on this year's potential value.

It's hard to tell when or if a mediocre rookie performance is actually going to trend to dominant and I don't know the Royals or Tigers young pitchers well enough to really get a "feel" for how good they really are, but the predictive metrics are utterly useless in that regard.

[DocBauer]

I keep wondering if we're in a  "good news" "bad news" situation in regard to adding to the staff.

The BAD NEWS: We didn't sign Pineda, and can't now, and we haven't signed Cueto yet. 

The GOOD NEWS: We didn't sign Pineda, and can't now, and we haven't signed Cueto yet.

Levi is correct, as we all have been, that GS and IP need to be covered, and you need 8-10 SP and not 5 to make it through a season. While hindsight is a very intelligent entity, it also offers nothing of value. The Twins, IMO, could have stayed away from the top rotation FA and still signed at least one of a handful of solid arms that were quality but mid-priced. Of course, at the time, they didn't know they were going to clear Donaldson's contract and get Correa. Now, I think they WANTED to move Donaldson, but I think their intent all along was to move a handful of young talent to acquire a quality arm that would come at a cheaper $ cost. And if you look at most all of the options available "out there" on various teams, that does seem very possible.

While I'm not 100%, as previously stated, that such a trade will happen now vs later, it sure seems that if they really wanted Pineda or Cueto they would have already done so. And look, they still might target Cueto now that Dobnak has been removed as an option. They need at least one veteran arm for IP, leadership, at least on the short term while the kids ramp up and get ready for their opportunity. And that opportunity IS going to come. With a little luck, Bundy will be rebound and at least be some combination of his 2020 self and his generally solid Oriole days. But we clearly need someone like Cueto at this point to fill a role, OR, make a hopefully smart trade for someone better. 

There are a number of arms they could go get, hopefully without breaking up too much of the top 10-20 prospect list. For some reason, I keep thinking Houston might move Odorizzi on the cheap. There are better arms, for sure, but I wouldn't be upset if that was the move. 

As to projections, especially for rookies, I tend to dismiss those in general. Speculation is great, and some do it better than others, but I think hitters are far easier to project than pitchers, for a variety of reasons. I doubt anyone projected the development and performance of Ober and Ryan last year. The vast number of young arms the Twins have nearly ready...even if 1 or 2 is moved...offers up "depth" to rotate in and audition throughout 2022. Next man up, so to speak.

And make no mistake, there is need to get these kids up and show what they can do. Opportunity WILL present itself. The question remains how good the arm to yet be added is going to be.

Good news, bad news, at the moment.

[gil4]

9 hours ago, Unwinder said:

Young fans absolutely love that kind of stuff. Those kinds of antics are good for the future of the sport.

Oh, I know. I still can do the Tiant pitching motion from when I was 10 or so.  (It hurts to do it now, but as of last Saturday I still can do it.) As an umpire, I hate it because we have to figure out if he actually broke a rule in all that mess, rather than just balking anything that looks weird (because everything looks weird.)  

[a-wan]

7 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

I'll always take talent over experience and waning ability.

The screams you hear are Ron Gardenhire crying out in pain and agony.

[dxpavelka]

On 3/21/2022 at 12:04 PM, Doctor Gast said:

The Twins should be focusing on a trade not on Cueto. Archer has much more upside and is a much better fit than Cueto. Archer could ease the pain of not getting a front line pitcher, Cueto would not.

Seems like Archer wouldn't be that great of a trade target since he's a FA.  And if he were not a FA, it's worth noting that the last time a team traded for him it turned out to be one of the worst trades ever.

 

[Doctor Gast]

10 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Seems like Archer wouldn't be that great of a trade target since he's a FA.  And if he were not a FA, it's worth noting that the last time a team traded for him it turned out to be one of the worst trades ever.

 

I'm sorry I didn't make myself clear, the primary trade that I assumed & failed to mention, was a Montas type trade not Archer because as you stated he's a FA. 

The TB/PIT trade is not worth noting because Archer had nothing to do w/ the stupidity of PIT to go for that trade and the inadequency of PIT pitching coaches to develop pitchers. Many pitchers that left PIT (Cole, Glasno and Musgrove to name a few) flourished and even became aces after leaving there. PIT coached did nothing to add to the development of the young Archer. Instead they had him pitch away from his strength (the slider) in favor of his weakness (the cutter). That caused his down fall.

The problem is that fans (& even FOs)  perceive Archer from the result of that trade, not his true potential even at his age. If things were different and MN obtained Archer, we'd be looking at a different scenario. Archer has always been a perfect fit for the Twins, he'd have developed into that ace he was meant to be (under Wes Johnson) and IMO could've been a greater ace than Musgrove, Glasno or even Cole.

 

[DJL44]

On 3/21/2022 at 9:30 PM, DocBauer said:

The Twins, best I can figure, are now somewhere in the $120M-ish payroll range. And even if they sign Cueto, they bump up to $130M-ish.

Spotrac has them at $114M. They're $20M below the average payroll and $30M behind the Cardinals. Plenty of room in the budget.

[ashbury]

21 hours ago, gil4 said:

Oh, I know. I still can do the Tiant pitching motion from when I was 10 or so.  (It hurts to do it now, but as of last Saturday I still can do it.) As an umpire, I hate it

Yeah, you risk looking like Frank Drebin.

[IndianaTwin]

32 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Yeah, you risk looking like Frank Drebin.

Better than looking like Nordberg.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Spotrac has them at $114M. They're $20M below the average payroll and $30M behind the Cardinals. Plenty of room in the budget.

It doesn't look like Spotrac is adding in any minimum salary players to fill the roster -- that $114 mil is just the 16 guys they list with above-minimum contracts. (They also don't list an arb estimate for Arraez.)

Cot's Baseball Contracts estimates salaries for those guys, and pegs us at about $125 mil right now.

[Eicemann]

On 3/21/2022 at 1:57 PM, DocBauer said:

I've always been OK with him or Pineda as an experienced, "short term" veteran to just be solid, give the team a chance, and be replaceable for one of the prospects. I would have preferred Pineda, but not going to complain here. 

I do think a trade is still very possible, but I'm no longer 100% on it. I'm probably 75-80%. And I think everyone is correct about asking prices. If you believe all the rumors put there, half the league is being linked to Oakland and other potentially available arms. Wouldn't surprise me a bit if the prices are ridiculous right now. Also wouldn't surprise me if the FO just moves on from Oakland and suddenly makes a deal with someone else. Sure wouldn't be the first time they surprised us.

WHY were the Twins not in on Pineda?  The Tigers signed him to a value deal.  From my perspective it seemed that they had been happy with his pitching performance and treated him very well throughout his suspension & time away for injuries.

[Thegrin]

I think having a 28 man April roster might affect the FO's thinking.  Let the best pitching Minor Leaguers in ST go with the club and use them. The best one becomes the 5th Starter. Maybe Jax can use what he learned last year and prove to be a competent starter. I like what I've seen of Duran.  Our pitching is what makes the late innings of ST games interesting.

(btw. Why did we sign Cotton?)  

[Squirrel]

8 hours ago, Thegrin said:

I think having a 28 man April roster might affect the FO's thinking.  Let the best pitching Minor Leaguers in ST go with the club and use them. The best one becomes the 5th Starter. Maybe Jax can use what he learned last year and prove to be a competent starter. I like what I've seen of Duran.  Our pitching is what makes the late innings of ST games interesting.

(btw. Why did we sign Cotton?)  

It’s already been decided and stated that Jax (along with Thorpe) will be in the pen and will no longer be starting.

[Major League Ready]

On 3/23/2022 at 7:27 PM, Otto von Ballpark said:

It doesn't look like Spotrac is adding in any minimum salary players to fill the roster -- that $114 mil is just the 16 guys they list with above-minimum contracts. (They also don't list an arb estimate for Arraez.)

Cot's Baseball Contracts estimates salaries for those guys, and pegs us at about $125 mil right now.

Good catch.  It would also be appropriate to forecast some of Buxton's bonus.  He is not likely to make $11M but forecasting $5M or $6M would make sense.

[KirbyHawk75]

Watching Chi Chi pitching now.  Damn, I really hope he isn't our 5th starter.  

[High heat]

So do we know Dobnak is done for the season already?  

The issue with going through the young guys early is what do we rely on when injuries occur?  Everyone just pencils in guys liek they are going to be there for the entire season.  Ober has never been able to stay healthy and is a big injury risk,  Gray is getting old, 

what happens when you lose 3 of your starters?  Are we ok seeing a rotation of Smeltzer and Chi Chi or whatever the twins can scrounge up off the minor league scrap heap?  

[stringer bell]

10 hours ago, High heat said:

So do we know Dobnak is done for the season already?  

The issue with going through the young guys early is what do we rely on when injuries occur?  Everyone just pencils in guys liek they are going to be there for the entire season.  Ober has never been able to stay healthy and is a big injury risk,  Gray is getting old, 

what happens when you lose 3 of your starters?  Are we ok seeing a rotation of Smeltzer and Chi Chi or whatever the twins can scrounge up off the minor league scrap heap?  

I doubt Dobnak is done for the year. However, whether he has surgery or not, he is going to miss a lot of time. 

The list of replacements for the current four starters (and one unknown) is pretty long with potential for each one to be a fixture in the rotation. We all know what happens more often than not when rookies face big-league hitters the first go round, but, as stated, there are 4-8 arms in the organization that could step forward and become key pieces for now and the future. Here's my list: Jordan Balazovic, Josh Winder, Cole Sands, Simeon Woods Richardson, Matt Canterino, Louis Varland, Jhoan Duran and Drew Strotman. I don't think Duran will be a starter in the majors this year, but I think he might be a bullpen arm as soon as Opening Day. 

By only acquiring two starters (neither top tier) the Twins seem to be betting that many of the young arms in their system (add Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober) will contribute as soon as this year. 

[ashbury]

On 3/21/2022 at 9:18 AM, Otto von Ballpark said:

 

140 hours, give or take.  And counting.

[Vanimal46]

Cueto ends up with the White Sox on a minor league deal. 

[bunsen82]

Heard he gets 4.5 million if he gets called up to the big leagues.  

[Doctor Gast]

I'm glad that this FO reevaluated their stance on Cueto. I didn't like him as a 5th starter.

[nicksaviking]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I'm glad that this FO reevaluated their stance on Cueto. I didn't like him as a 5th starter.

Me either. Though for a contending team like the White Sox, stashing a guy like him in AAA is a pretty solid move.

In a vacuum, I prefer Archer to Cueto. But if the other option was actually Winder in the rotation and Cueto in AAA? That might have had me considering otherwise.