Johnny Cueto rumor

[nicksaviking]

I've looked at the free agent list. There's not a name on there I'd rather see over the internal young guys. Nobody available on the open market has any business being anything higher than a #5, maybe a #4 on a contending team. They already got Bundy for the annual eye-roll rotation signing this season.

The last thing I want the Correa signing to do is to make the organization press and put a bunch of washed up vets in the rotation trying to make the impossible happen in this one year window. If trades aren't likely or reasonable, stay the course and go with the young guys.

[Otto von Ballpark]

On 3/21/2022 at 4:19 PM, stringer bell said:

I wonder if the Twins are waiting to clear some 40-man room. The Correa signing isn’t official and adding Cueto would require another move. They could 60-day Enlow, but then he gets MLB pay (+ service time?). Perhaps a trade including prospects for a established pitcher. 

You are correct on Enlow, but I don’t think it is avoidable. We can’t option him if he is injured, so he has to go on a MLB IL (collecting salary and service time) by opening day anyway.

EDIT: normally injured/recovering players can't be optioned, but Enlow actually falls into a small exception group this spring: https://twinsdaily.com/forums/topic/55494-blayne-enlow-and-flexible-40-man-roster-spots/

[Squirrel]

Now that they've used Dobnak's 60-day IL on a waiver claim, I can't imagine they would still sign Cueto. I mean, wouldn't they have just used the 40-man spot on him if he were that close to signing? I still think they are trying to work out a trade. Or, Romero goes back out on the wire.

[Otto von Ballpark]

5 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

Now that they've used Dobnak's 60-day IL on a waiver claim, I can't imagine they would still sign Cueto. I mean, wouldn't they have just used the 40-man spot on him if he were that close to signing? I still think they are trying to work out a trade. Or, Romero goes back out on the wire.

I would guess any Cueto deal would take a few days to become official, just like Correa. And yeah, as ashbury pointed out under the article, Romero is pretty likely to hit waivers again very soon.

[RpR]

They need some one/s;  they led Baltimore 5-1, fell back, tied it at 8-8, and lost in the ninth 8-10.

Minor league Rookies will solve nothing.

[Cap'n Piranha]

5 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

The Twins should be focusing on a trade not on Cueto. Archer has much more upside and is a much better fit than Cueto. Archer could ease the pain of not getting a front line pitcher, Cueto would not.

I'm betting Falvine can walk and chew bubble gum at the same time.

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Last year's WAR totals

3.4 -0.3 1.1 0.4 0.9

If you project out Joe Ryan to 75 additional innings (he threw 66 more in AAA last season) that 0.4 changes to a 1.6

Chicago White Sox rotation

Lynn 5.4 Giolito 4.3 Cease 2.9 Kopech 1.3 Keuchel 0.0

The White Sox win that comparison 14 to 7.5. The Guardians also have a better rotation than the Twins.

I guess it matches up okay with the Tigers:

Rodriguez 1.9 Mize 3.2 Skubal 1.7 Manning -0.4 Pineda 1.4

If you're going to project Ryan out, you need to multiply Kopech by 2.5x. He only started 4 games and pitched 69 innings. Not to mention Cease and Kopech both possess ace level talent. Cease may have managed only 2.9 bWAR, but he had 4.4 fWAR. Kopech also put together 1.7 fWAR. Adding the innings for both of them could easily see 
4.0 WAR - Lynn
4.0 WAR - Giolito
5.0 WAR - Cease
4.0 WAR - Kopech
0.0 WAR - Keutchel
17.0 WAR

Tigers
4.0 WAR - Rodriguez
2.0 WAR - Mize
2.0 WAR - Pineda
0.0 WAR - Skubal
1.5 WAR - Manning
9.5 WAR

Twins
2.5 WAR - Gray
2.0 WAR - Bundy
2.0 WAR - Ober
2.5 WAR - Ryan
1.0 WAR - Somebody?
10.5 WAR

Royals
2.0 WAR - Greinke
1.5 WAR - Keller
2.0 WAR - Singer
0.0 WAR - Bubic
2.0 WAR - Hernandez
7.5 WAR

Guardians
5.0 WAR - Bieber
2.5 WAR - Quantrill
1.5 WAR - Plesac
1.0 WAR - Civale
1.5 WAR - McKenzie
11.5 WAR

If there aren't any moves or anything, I think that's fairly reasonable for guesses.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

6 hours ago, PDX Twin said:

I hadn't thought about Klippstein in years! Second best reliever on the Twins 1965 pennant-winners!

Plus he also used to pitch for the Reds. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

6 hours ago, Dman said:

I am only going to say this meekly as I ended up being wrong about the SS scenario but I have to believe the price is just too high right now for Montas.  If this ends up being a Pittsburgh Overpay scenario then I will be happy the Twins are out of the running.  There has to be other ways to get what we neIed.

I partially agree that there "were" other ways to have gotten what we need, but not now.

[weitz41]

Quote

At this point I’m starting to wonder if the price is excessive for SPs and am beginning to wonder if some combination of Cueto, Archer or Davies may end up being a better use of recourses. I’d rather have the twins prospects in the 2nd half of the season if things don’t go well and they sell of the veterans. If they burn though a bunch of prospects to get the pitchers we all want and things don’t go well can they even break even? 

 

[LastOnePicked]

This is where the offseason critiques of the FO are still valid: an earlier SP free agent signing would have avoided most of this angst.

BUT ... Cueto might be a fine #5. Then let some of the young arms ease into bullpen games. See how things go by June and make a splash by the trade deadline if needed. It's not the best plan, but it's probably better than emptying the cupboards ... or totally draining the pipeline.

[tony&rodney]

My guess is that the Twins will add at least one decent pitcher. If I had to rank the AL Central staffs right now ... CWS, CG, DT, KCR, & MNT. This will change in my opinion.

[tony&rodney]

2 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

emptying the cupboards ... or totally draining the pipeline.

Ober*, Balazovic*, Duran*, Ryan*,  Winder*, Enlow*, Strotman*, Sands*, Henriquez*, Vallimont*, Moran*, Alcala, Bundy, Cotton, Dobnak, Duffey, Garza, Gray, Jax, Maeda, Rogers, Stashak, Thielbar, Thorpe, Woods Richardson, Canterino, Varland, Mooney, Cruz, Cano, Bundy, & Maeda.

There are pretty many items in the cupboard (reminds me of my hoard of coffee cups) and the drainline could be getting clogged with #5 starters and too many relievers. 

Then again, Tampa Bay did use 41 pitchers last season.

[HerbieFan]

8 hours ago, Dman said:

I am only going to say this meekly as I ended up being wrong about the SS scenario but I have to believe the price is just too high right now for Montas.  If this ends up being a Pittsburgh Overpay scenario then I will be happy the Twins are out of the running.  There has to be other ways to get what we need.

Or other options....

[DocBauer]

Already stated my opinion pretty clearly on Cueto, since Pineda is now gone, as the "short term, veteran, experienced, solid, place holder to give you a chance daily until someone better comes along" option. And I stand by that. 

The Twins, best I can figure, are now somewhere in the $120M-ish payroll range. And even if they sign Cueto, they bump up to $130M-ish. Clearly you don't re-sign Buxton, trade for Gray, sign Correa, and be involved in various rumors because you're DONE and aren't going to try to compete. Now, whether they make a trade in the coming days, OR, make a mid-season move once you prove you are in contention remains to be seen. But I can clearly see how the payroll quickly jumps in to the $140's very easily. It's still a question of who and when.

The Twins are DEEP in talent throughout the system, but top-heavy with a few TOP prospects, and not as flush there as some teams. (Partially through prospect graduation). A healthy Duran and Canterino could allow for a mid-season re-listing of top 100 prospects in a hurry! But I digress.

The prospect capital is there to make another serious move, with or without a Cueto signing, without decimating the system. But how eager is the FO to move 2 of our top 5, or 3 of our top 10 to bring in another arm has to be considered. There is "going for it", and then there is holding out for a while and seeing what happens once the season starts and actually see what you have.

But a few thoughts after all of that:

1] Is Oakland overplaying their hand right now? And if they are re-building, do they really need/want ready/nearly ready players? They received a couple ready/nearly ready players so far in their moves. Would they NOW want some longer term assets? Or a combination of such? And I'm only spit-balling when I say things like Arraez, Wallner, Varland and Sands/Winder/Balazovic.

2] Are we really convinced Cincinnati is done and not actually re-bulding? Petty has HUGE upside and equally HUGE risk being a HS kid. But they did that, mostly, straight up for Gray. Again, our system has some very nice options with big upside to a re-building team who wants as many upside prospects as they can get. 

3] Ditto, maybe, for the Orioles and Means?

4] Maybe I'm wrong, but the Marlins have some quality SP to trade off, but it also seems to feel as if they aren't "going for it" right now. Again, I may be wrong, but that's sort of my impression. 

5] Maybe the Astos don't want to pay Odorizzi $8M to be their #6 starter. Last I knew, that was the probability. How about Oddo back again on what should be a fairly cheap acquisition, with or without Cueto. He has a history of pitching well with the Twins, and finished 2021 strong. Would you be OK with him back to help head the rotation without blowing up 2-4 of the Twins top 20 list for now?

My whole point is, there are more teams than the A's rebuilding. ANY trade for a quality SP is probably going to hurt, at least a little. But if a team is looking for TALENT, and not just someone ready or almost ML ready, there are options such as Severino, Urbina, Rodriguez, Wallner, Varland, Gipson-Long, maybe even recent top draft choices like Sabato or Cavaco that all rank amongst the Twins top 30 prospects. If Petty was on the table to the Reds, then anyone else else drafted the past 2yrs is also available. So we might be surprised as to what team is looking for young talent a couple years from now to deepen their system and opportunity.

If we've learned one thing from this FO, never be surprised by being surprised.

[DocBauer]

2 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

This is where the offseason critiques of the FO are still valid: an earlier SP free agent signing would have avoided most of this angst.

BUT ... Cueto might be a fine #5. Then let some of the young arms ease into bullpen games. See how things go by June and make a splash by the trade deadline if needed. It's not the best plan, but it's probably better than emptying the cupboards ... or totally draining the pipeline.

I agree with you here 100%!

Arguing and debating forever and a day about getting out of the Donaldson deal and signing Correa and financials for the future vs 1yr, and all of it is nonsense at this point. We are where we are. And where we are is a good place with a team who could make some real noise!

To me, it's very obvious the FO is willing to bring on more payroll now, or some point. While I believe I believe they have worked very hard to establish a deep farm system, they KNOW they are going to have to give up SOMETHING to take the next step. Up and down the line, when you look at what they've done, you are not only surprised, but have to be pleased where we are at. And maybe the Bundy that was just waiting to escape Baltimore, had a good 2020, will find himself as at least a combo of the OK pitcher he was for the Orioles and the great SP he was in 2020. But I'd be willing to bet if you could speak to the Twins FO now...unfair because at the time they and NOBODY could know how things were going to transpire after the lockout the way they have...they would have undoubtedly signed at least one of the quality SP available at the time to augment the Gray trade.

The problem is, everything was weird/crazy for the 3rd year in a row. And you can't rewind time.

I wish we could. I'm sure the FO would make a quality signing knowing what they know now.  What happens next is going to be interesting.

[gil4]

I'm not sure I want Cueto.  Last year was a bounce-back year, but it was only 114 innings (I know, looking at the current rotation and that sounds like a lot).  In 2020, he pitched 63 innings he probably wishes he could take back (5.40 ERA),  In 2018 and 2019 he pitched a combined 69 innings, with OK results (although FIP was quite a bit worse than results.)   I also don't like his weird motion and wish MLB would tighten up the  pitching rules to cut down on some of the weirdness.

On the plus side, his SO/9 have been fairly steady, so maybe his arm isn't quite ready to fall off. As long as they pay him like a 36-yr-old end of the line guy, and not a high value asset, I guess I could live with him as a #4 or 5.  

[Monkeypaws]

I think the Twins have enough good pitching in the system to roll with it: Balazovic, Canterino, Winder, they are definitely not raw rookies age wise at least: 23,24,25. 

Dangit give em a chance instead of trading them for a guy who may have had his best years in the rear view mirror. 

Along with Ryan and Ober, inexperienced pitching staff doesn't mean bad pitching staff.

 

[Greglw3]

19 hours ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

Not terribly surprising.

The question remains: is this meant to supplement, or substitute for, a SP trade acquisition?

 

I think Cueto ~ = Michael Pineda at this point so, given the circumstances, it would be a good signing. The Twins have the potential to be a good hitting team so that would help him.

[TopGunn#22]

I still have to believe a blockbuster trade is percolating out there somewhere.  Cueto is fine for depth and to eat some innings.  I see innings limitations and pitch counts for young Twins pitchers ALL YEAR.  The other thing I see is a whole BUNCH of young Twins pitchers and the 40-man roster seeming to be pretty clogged right now.  I'm not sure what Oakland wants, or Miami, or the Reds etc... but I've got to believe that something could be worked out, and fairly soon at that.  I really appreciate those who listed the WAR's or projected WAR's of the A.L. Central Starting Pitching staffs.  It really does help put things into perspective.  I have an out of left field question about them though regarding the Tigers.  How does Matt Manning have a higher WAR than Tarik Skubal ?  Skubal was better last year by far.  What am I missing ??   

[DJL44]

14 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Twins
2.5 WAR - Gray
2.0 WAR - Bundy
2.0 WAR - Ober
2.5 WAR - Ryan
1.0 WAR - Somebody?
10.5 WAR

I think you may be wearing your Kasota Gold colored glasses on Bundy. I wouldn't count on him for anything. The rookies might be a bit optimistic as well.

[Otto von Ballpark]

17 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Last year's WAR totals

3.4 -0.3 1.1 0.4 0.9

If you project out Joe Ryan to 75 additional innings (he threw 66 more in AAA last season) that 0.4 changes to a 1.6

 

14 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Twins
2.5 WAR - Gray
2.0 WAR - Bundy
2.0 WAR - Ober
2.5 WAR - Ryan
1.0 WAR - Somebody?
10.5 WAR

You two might be interested in the Fangraphs depth chart projections.

They have all current Twins SP with a combined 9.2 WAR. Gray 2.4, Bundy 1.4, Ober & Ryan at 1.8 each.

White Sox SP are projected at 14.8, Cleveland and Detroit at 10.7 each, and KC at 9.0.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I probably jumped the gun in sharing this report. Haven't seen anything about Cueto from more established sources in the last 24 hours.

Perhaps that indicates that any Twins interest in Cueto is more of a fallback option, in case a trade target falls through?

[LA VIkes Fan]

Cueto would be a smart fallback. This could also be a negotiating ploy; let Oakland know that the Twins are going to pivot to Cueto if Oakland doesn't take the offer on the table. I do think these negotiations get to a point where one team has made its "best and final" offer and the other team starts shopping to see if they can do better than that offer. I kind of wonder if that Twins are in that spot now and signaling to Oakland that if their offer is not accepted in a reasonably short period of time that they will simply withdraw the offer and move on to Johnny Cueto. They pivoted once before so that gives the team some credibility to say they would pivot again. Interesting times.

[Unwinder]

11 hours ago, gil4 said:

I also don't like his weird motion and wish MLB would tighten up the  pitching rules to cut down on some of the weirdness.

Young fans absolutely love that kind of stuff. Those kinds of antics are good for the future of the sport.

[old nurse]

23 hours ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

Not terribly surprising.

The question remains: is this meant to supplement, or substitute for, a SP trade acquisition?

 

Since it is 24 hours later is it fair to ask if anyone knows if the source is the same one as Vodka Dave’s for the Dozier trade?

[old nurse]

3 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I still have to believe a blockbuster trade is percolating out there somewhere.  Cueto is fine for depth and to eat some innings.  I see innings limitations and pitch counts for young Twins pitchers ALL YEAR.  The other thing I see is a whole BUNCH of young Twins pitchers and the 40-man roster seeming to be pretty clogged right now.  I'm not sure what Oakland wants, or Miami, or the Reds etc... but I've got to believe that something could be worked out, and fairly soon at that.  I really appreciate those who listed the WAR's or projected WAR's of the A.L. Central Starting Pitching staffs.  It really does help put things into perspective.  I have an out of left field question about them though regarding the Tigers.  How does Matt Manning have a higher WAR than Tarik Skubal ?  Skubal was better last year by far.  What am I missing ??   

Cueto has been injured during parts of the last few seasons. It is hard to eat innings on the IL

[LastOnePicked]

13 hours ago, DocBauer said:

But I'd be willing to bet if you could speak to the Twins FO now...unfair because at the time they and NOBODY could know how things were going to transpire after the lockout the way they have...they would have undoubtedly signed at least one of the quality SP available at the time to augment the Gray trade.

True ... though I think we'd both agree that a crystal ball wasn't needed to foresee that most of the top 15 SP free agents were going to sign quickly before the lockout. They should have been in the mix earlier. My only guesses are that:

1) The usual song-and-dance: those within our price range wanted to sign elsewhere.

2) This FO is allergic to free agent SPs, and last year's crash-and-burn Happ/Shoemaker additions might have only made them more allergic. That means, seek out value in one-year deals that are easily scrapped if needed.

3) They had a plan all along to let the offseason dust settle, check in on our prospects (and other team's players) when Spring Training finally got started, and then maybe make 1-2 larger trades before the season starts.

4) Similar to #3, they'd give MLB opportunities to many younger guys in the pipeline, see what they've got (and what other teams have got) by June, and then begin to explore some larger pre-deadline deals.

It's a bit of a risk, because you can't win a playoff spot by June 1st, but you can dig yourself a terrible hole with a bad start and lose one. It's almost like the lesson of 2021 should have sunk in a bit more.

BUT, with an expanded playoff spot, a little bit of that risk is mitigated. A team that hovers near .500 by midsummer still has a decent shot this year at sneaking in.

In closing, it's either genius or lunacy. I'm not smart enough to say which at this point.

[stringer bell]

The remaining free agents out there are pretty much bad and old. Cueto might be the best remaining pickup and I'm not sure he's any better than the dreck that the Twins have signed as starters in the past few years (Pineda easily being the best starting pitcher signing the current front office has made). I do think it is time for youth to be served, but I'm afraid that many or most of the guys the Twins try this year will have rookie seasons approximating what Berrios did in his first go-round.

[cmoss84]

14 hours ago, DocBauer said:

3] Ditto, maybe, for the Orioles and Means?

I would LOVE Means. I almost value him higher than Montas or Manaea...or Mahle...or Marquez. He is not talked about enough.