Gary Sanchez is Not a Miguel Sano Clone

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins recently swapped packages with the New York Yankees and acquired former top prospect, Gary Sanchez. The embattled backstop looks for a change of scenery to reverse his fortunes, but suggesting him as a clone of Miguel Sano sells short the complete picture.

There’s no denying that Twins fans know what Miguel Sano is at this point. While a streaky hitter, it’s hard to argue against his body of work being a solid outcome from a prospect projection standpoint. You’d prefer fewer peaks and valleys, but a career .819 OPS is nothing to scoff at. Sano will always rack up strikeouts in droves, but it’s not because he’s lacking ability.
 
In differentiating the two, let’s first understand what Sano is. The Twins' first baseman is a power hitter. He has a significant amount of swing-and-miss in his game, but he also displays a substantial amount of plate discipline. Sano’s hard-hit rate thus far has been 45.1%, often ranking near the top of Statcast leaderboards relative to his peers across the league. A 52.1% hard-hit rate in 2019 is the high watermark, and a 117 mph max exit velocity is nothing to scoff at. Sano’s 16.6% barrel rate is propped up by career-best numbers over the past three seasons.
 
When Sano struggles, it’s a reflection of timing and velocity. A 27.8% chase rate isn’t evidence that he expands the zone often, and Sano has only topped 30% once in his career. At his worst, Sano has pushed the whiff rate near 20%, but he sits at 15.8% to this point. A 63.7% contact rate isn’t ideal but reflects the three true outcomes approach, while his zone contact rating jumps 14% to 77.1%. A steady diet of fastballs is often fed to Minnesota’s first baseman, a rate of 31.7% over his career, as it’s been the pitch he’s had the most against.

Summarizing Sano’s output at the plate would suggest thunderous contact with immense power while displaying a good eye but struggling with velocity. He swings with intent, and there’s rarely contact that isn’t loud.
 
Now, how does that compare to Sanchez?
 
Yes, Sanchez, too, is a power hitter, but the outputs are hardly the same. Unlike Sano, Sanchez has never posted a 50% hard-hit rate in his career. Across the totality of his production, the hard-hit rate sits at 37.3%, a considerable drop from his childhood friend. Sanchez also owns a barrel rate 2% lower than Sano and rarely creeps towards the top of exit velocity leaderboards. Production is reflected in a lower HR/FB rate and a lesser line drive percentage.
 
When in the box, Sanchez also expands the zone nearly 5% more often. Despite doing this, the former Yankees backstop whiffs roughly 4% less than his teammate. Sanchez makes considerably more contact, both in the zone and out of it, but it comes at the cost of a desirable swing. If the goal is to get off an “A” swing each time, it’s clear that concessions are being made where results reflect a less-than-ideal process.
 
On the most basic level, comparing these two players boils down to this. One is a power hitter working with those parameters. The other is a power hitter working against those parameters. Miguel Sano has struck out roughly one-third of the time during his career, while Gary Sanchez has done so only one-fourth of the time. Sano takes more walks and is honed in on pitches he can do something with while exhibiting a swing that bears fruit at contact. Sanchez plays into pitcher’s hands while getting off a swing that may not generate desired results anyways.
 
They are very similar hitters that could benefit from one another. Every Twins fan has seen Sano go through periods where velocity ties him in knots. Yankees fans have grown accustomed to Sanchez failing to produce. This regime should hope to find a middle ground where both take walks and utilize loud contact in marrying their hulking pair.

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[Nashvilletwin]

Thanks Ted for the analysis.

I’m expecting a strong season from Sano this year as it really is a make or break season for his future. I’m hoping he responds in a big way. 

I have no expectations for Sanchez as he was probably a release candidate for the Yankees before we paid up for him. As a catcher who really can’t catch very well or a DH who really can’t hit very well, I don’t see much long term future with our Twins (or anywhere else for that matter). Hope I’m wrong, but the only thing really going for him now is that he can catch about 30% of our innings and, even with Godoy, we don’t have any other options to take those innings. 

[LastOnePicked]

"This regime should hope to find a middle ground where both take walks and utilize loud contact in marrying their hulking pair."

Wait, they're getting married?! Is that why Falvey made this deal? Right now, it's the only explanation for seeing Sanchez in aTwins uniform that makes any sense.

Well, a playoff win would make a beautiful wedding present. Just sayin'. ?

Good analysis, Ted. They look awfully similar at the plate to my eye, but we'll soon see.

[weitz41]

I always enjoy your point of view Ted. Maybe both will have good or great years. That'd really change my thoughts on this off-season so far. The lack of more moves probably bothers me more than these two in the same line up. Feels like we're waiting on players to run out of chairs in this game of duck, duck, goose. Didn't the twins set a franchise record for losses the last time the off season felt this way??..

[MMMordabito]

My glass is still half empty, but I'll echo that it's a good analysis. 

It's not quite ice to tundra-dwelling first nation folks, but you might have to sell Chi Chi Gonzalez to us next.

[DocBauer]

While the entire process of this re-tool has me a bit confused, I see a method to the madness. The Twins believe in the Jeffers they drafted, honed, and have seen throughout his milb career, what he showed in 2020, and glimpses he showed in 2021. They believe he is the future. I can't disagree with them.

We also have to reign in angst about Sanchez as the Twins didn't go looking to trade for him, they took him back as part of a deal to shed Donaldson and to free up $ for additional moves and flexibility. NOW, they need to figure out how to USE that flexibility and maximize it.

I am not a fan of Sanchez. I'm not crazy about him as out backup catcher. But barring injury, he should only catch about 1/3 of games. Despite being questionable behind the plate, he's "been there and done that" and offers experience to impart. He has power. Despite his falling BA the last few years, he's still kept his OB above .300. 

I'm expecting nothing from him that is substantial. But it isn't inconceivable that a change of scenery, a new opportunity, a new voice of instruction might see him rebound to say a .220-.230 hitter with power. That could make him a decent asset as the #2. I don't buy in to him spending much time at DH as we have other options there that are better hitters. And I do expect him to be gone after this year, if not during the year at some point.

[Whitey333]

I have no real expectations for Sanchez.  It's becoming more and more apparent that the Twins are not even going to make an attempt to be respectable!  We gave the Yankees their starting third baseman and shortstop for the season and took on two players they don't even want.  So we are supposed to get excited by signing a 27 year old catcher that no one else wanted that was put on waivers by the other team?  I haven't seen any indication yet that they are going to spend any of the payroll they saved since starting to dump salary last year with Berrios and Cruz.  As of tonight my confidence is very low for the next couple of years.  Please Twins, prove me wrong and invest in payroll

[h2oface]

Thanks for this analysis. It looks even worse than I had supposed. And you didn't even get to what the liabilities are when he is catching!

Garver for Sanchez. Yuk.

[mikelink45]

As much as I like TD it is getting harder and harder to read these stories that are trying to put the best spin on everything.  So I have become a curmudgeon this spring and will look for something that really excites me.  I do wish Donaldson good luck and a productive year, same with Berrios and the Blue Jays who I hope win it all, and Garver in Texas with all the new FAs.

[puckstopper1]

10 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

As much as I like TD it is getting harder and harder to read these stories that are trying to put the best spin on everything.  So I have become a curmudgeon this spring and will look for something that really excites me.  I do wish Donaldson good luck and a productive year, same with Berrios and the Blue Jays who I hope win it all, and Garver in Texas with all the new FAs.

I am with you, Mike.  I am one who compared Sano to Sanchez and I stick by it.  While the advanced analytics are nice, I base my comparison on the results.  They are both very low average high strike out power hitters who are at best below average defensively.

[dgdynasty]

hope for the best, but expect the worse.. 

[rv78]

I wish both players were on a different team. Bad enough to have 1 creating a hole in the lineup now we have another. 

2 big trades and this team has gotten significantly worse. I can hardly wait to see what they do next.

[tony&rodney]

Sano is a better athlete than Sanchez but he hasn't tried his hand at catching .... yet .... hmmmm.... could he block balls in the dirt?

[ashbury]

25 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Sano is a better athlete than Sanchez but he hasn't tried his hand at catching .... yet .... hmmmm.... could he block balls in the dirt?

Dunno, but maybe some practice at calling pitches, and framing, would help his own pitch recognition when at the plate.

[tony&rodney]

59 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Dunno, but maybe some practice at calling pitches, and framing, would help his own pitch recognition when at the plate.

?

[AceWrigley]

19 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

So I have become a curmudgeon this spring and will look for something that really excites me.

There's always "The Sandlot".