4 Things We Know After the Stunning Twins-Yankees Trade

[Nick Nelson]

Late on Sunday night, the Twins traded Josh Donaldson, Ben Rortvedt, and newly-acquired shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa to the Yankees in exchange for Gary Sanchez and Gio Urshela. 

Fans were blindsided and bewildered by this move, which upended the team's entire offseason.

We don't know much right now, and probably won't get the full picture until more moves are made. But here are four things we DO know.

1. The Twins REALLY wanted to get out from under Josh Donaldson's contract.

I'm not at all surprised that the Twins were looking to trade Donaldson. Personally I've been on board with that course of action for some time, and wrote as much last July. At the time, I hoped they might be able to leverage the trade deadline or cover some of his remaining salary to lessen the blow of unloading such an undesirable contract. Alas, they did not. 

The front office was able to eventually finder a taker for Donaldson, and New York even took on the full remainder of his deal – all $50 million in guaranteed money. To make it happen, the Twins needed to part with Mitch Garver (via Isiah Kiner-Felafa) and Ben Rortvedt in addition to Donaldson, decimating their catching depth while reopening a total vacancy at shortstop.

Minnesota also brought on two buy-low reclamation projects in the swap. It's hard to imagine that either Gio Urshela or Gary Sanchez were players the Twins coveted, coming off bad years with dwindling team control. But that was part of the deal.

It's a deal the Twins made purely out of eagerness to escape Donaldson's contract. And I get it. He didn't fit here anymore and his big salaries at 36 and 37 were likely to be a hindrance. Now the Twins are free of that commitment, albeit at the expense of clearly downgrading the current roster. 

To what end?

2. They Twins now have, like, no catching depth.

Garver, gone. Rortvedt, gone. Even our sweet baby boy Willians Astudillo is gone. It was notable that the our recent top 20 prospects breakdown included zero catchers, and now the Twins have suddenly parted with two of their three big-leaguers in one fell swoop. 

What are we doing here? This system has no depth to be wiping out the top shelf like that. Yes, Sanchez is here, but we're talking about a guy who's widely regarded as one of the worst defensive catchers in baseball. He's a terrible pitch-framer and borderline DH. Did the Twins just abandon their whole philosophy around the value of defense and catching depth?

Oh, and:

3. They also have no shortstop (again).

We'd all spent about 24 hours talking ourselves into Kiner-Falefa. "Yeah, the Andrelton Simmons thing didn't work out, but that doesn't mean the concept of a glove-first shortstop was bad. IKF is young and hungry! He's gritty!" 

And then, poof. The solution at shortstop was gone nearly as fast as he arrived, and thus, the Twins are back to square one. Meanwhile, every free agent option has dried up – Simmons and Jose Iglesias both signed over the weekend. The middle tier is gone.  

I mean, there are still a couple of big names out there. And, the biggest takeaway from all this is...

4. The Twins now have all kinds of flexibility to make at least one HUGE move.

The front office freed up $50 million in future payroll commitments, on the same day they traded their 2021 first-round draft pick for a veteran front-line starter. These signs clearly point toward the Twins setting up for one or more extremely significant moves.

It's fascinating to think about what that might look like. By this point all high-end free agent pitchers are gone. Two big-name shortstops remain, and I'm confident Minnesota is not signing Carlos Correa.

So, are they going to sign Trevor Story? They are reportedly in contact with his camp, so it's definitely a possibility. But it can hardly be considered a lock, right? If the Twins don't land Story, what's the backup plan? And even if they do, how will they address their multiple remaining needs in the rotation, bullpen, and outfield?

How are the Twins going to spend all this newly freed up money, with spring training already underway and Opening Day bearing down fast?

Like I said, a lot of unknowns. But it's gonna be fun to find out.

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[h2oface]

Fun?

How about #5? Falvey has no clue, and he admits it.

""I expect to take advantage of it for sure," Falvey said. "Exactly how that plays out, short term, long term, medium term, I don't know. Obviously, it clears a lot off next year as well. ... We're going to have to roll with the punches a little bit and figure out what we can add over the next few weeks leading into Opening Day." 

5 years and still trading for pitching........  because none are ready from the farm.........................

[awmonahan]

So excited for Pitchers and Catcher to report! Also curious how the team will work with no SS and one catcher that a serious team would consider fielding. Add in a lineup with Sano and Sanchez (400ks between them) and the team is looking pretty nontraditional. 

I hope there is a plan to clean this mess up quickly. 

[Lasorda_This_Out]

Relax...it's a 162 game season? There is NO WAY to predict where any MLB team will end up at the end of the regular season based on trades, FA signings, 40 Man Rosters in March? By October 1, the Twins could be in first place or last? It's Baseball? Let's enjoy the greatest game ever invented? Play Ball!!

 

 

[h2oface]

1 hour ago, awmonahan said:

So excited for Pitchers and Catcher to report! Also curious how the team will work with no SS and one catcher that a serious team would consider fielding. Add in a lineup with Sano and Sanchez (400ks between them) and the team is looking pretty nontraditional. 

I hope there is a plan to clean this mess up quickly. 

What catchers? The only guy that is probably happy is Jeffers. But ST needs like 7 catchers. Are you ready to start seeing Sano and Sanchez start their quest for record strikeouts?

[AKTwins]

ESPN+ likes the trade for the twins.  If they sign Story, this makes sense.  Reading between the lines, it does not appear other teams are willing to give Story the huge contract to play SS.  Seems to be a perfect match, he can play SS in MN and the Twins have the money.  Maybe a little discount for him to play SS.  In a way they would trade Donaldson contract for Story’s contract, but would obviously owe more the long run for Story.  But story is around 7 years younger.  Seems like a good swap.
 

If they trade for, and extend, Manaea or Montas it makes even more sense.  For catcher, I think the FO believes a veteran defense first catcher is the same as Rortvedt.  Maybe they think Chris Williams will be ready.

[Eris]

If the Twins were unwilling to accept Donaldson’s contract why do we think they will spend even more money to sign a SS or SP. 

it is really hard to comprehend the value of a trade that makes the Twins worse at 3 positions.  

[Richie the Rally Goat]

39 minutes ago, Eris said:

If the Twins were unwilling to accept Donaldson’s contract why do we think they will spend even more money to sign a SS or SP. 

it is really hard to comprehend the value of a trade that makes the Twins worse at 3 positions.  

This is where I’m at too. If they HAD to get out from under Donaldson, how quick will they be to replace that contract?

[bighat]

Anyone consider that maybe the Twins simply don't think Donaldson has much left in the tank? Or they believe his injuries are only going to get worse? Or both? If someone told you that Donaldson would play 90 games this year, would you take the over or under?

It wasn't just Donaldson's contract the Twins were unloading. Josh is an aging superstar who is both extremely vocal and injury prone. What I'm saying is, maybe unloading Donaldson didn't "downgrade" the Twins lineup as much as you think it did. At least consider it.

[TwinsDr2021]

1 minute ago, bighat said:

Anyone consider that maybe the Twins simply don't think Donaldson has much left in the tank? Or they believe his injuries are only going to get worse? Or both? If someone told you that Donaldson would play 90 games this year, would you take the over or under?

It wasn't just Donaldson's contract the Twins were unloading. Josh is an aging superstar who is both extremely vocal and injury prone. What I'm saying is, maybe unloading Donaldson didn't "downgrade" the Twins lineup as much as you think it did. At least consider it.

That idea IMO makes the FO look worse, they are the ones that signed him two years ago, and that does make them look like they are throwing darts and hoping something works. Also if they truly wanted just to get rid of him and it wasn't amount money they could have spent money in FA. My guess is they said screw it on 2022, and the new deal came out with extra playoff teams and they thought we team that can compete, so the changed their plans, again.

[Dave Overlund]

I don't have a problem moving Donaldson, but blowing up the catcher position to do so is baffling. Again, it just comes down to money in my opinion.  It always does.

There are plenty of teams who would eat part of that salary to get something worthwhile back in return. 

[twins_89]

It is really weird to have spring training starting and have no idea what direction the team is going this season. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Twins try to compete by signing Story and trading for another good starter. I also wouldn't be surprised to see the team go into the season with a sub $100M payroll and virtually no chance at the playoffs.

[Riverbrian]

3 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

that does make them look like they are throwing darts and hoping something works. 

I mean no disrespect to any front office, they are all better at what they do than us mere mortals making comments about what they are doing.

However, I truly believe that "dart throwing and hoping something works" is something that every front office does on a regular basis, no matter how much data they absorb. 

The values of every player in the organization are not static, they change, evolve, regress year to year, moment to moment and team needs will change accordingly with all the ups and downs of individual players.

I'll applaud any organization with the guts to move accordingly. 

[rv78]

I can understand the desire to get out from under Donaldsons contract. But doesn't that directly point to the FO making a mistake signing him in the first place? Did they think he would bring them a ring and just now realize he is deteriorating quickly? That his contract will be a detriment going forward? Short-sightedness is again, a mistake. Is trading for Sonny Gray really that good of a move? He's 31 and has had only 1 good season, 2019 in the last 6 and even then he only pitched 175 innings. Hardly a work horse or an Ace. Bailey Ober is the only Starter that is in the rotation this Front Office has drafted. Can we admit, so far they have failed. They had to trade for Maeda and Joe Ryan, have signed worthless Free Agents in Shoemaker, Happ, Martin Perez, Bartolo Colon, and others who are washed-up veterans. You will probably be able to add Dylan Bundy to that list. I feel that Falvine has taken the Terry Ryan approach and has decided to try to "Catch Lightning in a Bottle" or use the old "Hope and a Prayer" method. Now we trade away the best hitting catcher in the league and a first round pick in Petty for a decent SS and another prospect and then turn around and get a terrible hitting and fielding catcher and average 3B/SS in return for that SS, losing a really good young defensive catcher in the process. Seems we have gone backwards and for what? Money. Unless that money is spent for a top SS or Starting Pitcher "IN THEIR PRIME" and not some aging veteran this FO is making really bad moves and doesn't know what they are doing.

[Whitey333]

The Donaldson salary dump at this juncture has created a roster mess.  I hope the great Byron Buxton can pitch and catch lol.  I have been saying for months that I think the twins COULD be on a salary purge.  I think the trade begs other moves.  People assume and understandably so that there is 30- 40 million to spend.  Going back to salary dumps of Berrios and Cruz for prospects and the recent moves has thus far created roster holes and major pa

[Whitey333]

Major payroll reductions.  And roster confusion.  Remember, twins are not required to spend the significant payroll savings.  With a payroll under 100 million and revenue sharing they will come out great financially.  I hope they reinvest the savings but since the salary dumping started last year with Berrios and Cruz and now the recent trades, it's either moves to clear salary for future moves or just as likely a salary purge and a deep rebuild.  Yuck

[Major League Ready]

17 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

Major payroll reductions.  And roster confusion.  Remember, twins are not required to spend the significant payroll savings.  With a payroll under 100 million and revenue sharing they will come out great financially.  I hope they reinvest the savings but since the salary dumping started last year with Berrios and Cruz and now the recent trades, it's either moves to clear salary for future moves or just as likely a salary purge and a deep rebuild.  Yuck

Calling the Cruz trade a salary dump is extremely simplistic thinking.  Trading a rental in a 90+ loss season for a good pitching prospect is a great trade.

[Whitey333]

Cruz and Berrios could easily be called salary dumps.  Those two moves freed up over 20 million last year.  It's just my opinion but that's what I call it.  Not irrationality any more than your irrational comment 

[Devilsadvocate]

2 hours ago, AKTwins said:

ESPN+ likes the trade for the twins.  If they sign Story, this makes sense.  Reading between the lines, it does not appear other teams are willing to give Story the huge contract to play SS.  Seems to be a perfect match, he can play SS in MN and the Twins have the money.  Maybe a little discount for him to play SS.  In a way they would trade Donaldson contract for Story’s contract, but would obviously owe more the long run for Story.  But story is around 7 years younger.  Seems like a good swap.
 

If they trade for, and extend, Manaea or Montas it makes even more sense.  For catcher, I think the FO believes a veteran defense first catcher is the same as Rortvedt.  Maybe they think Chris Williams will be ready.

Only one problem - Chris Williams isn't a defense first catcher.

[MN_ExPat]

5 hours ago, h2oface said:

Fun?

How about #5? Falvey has no clue, and he admits it.

""I expect to take advantage of it for sure," Falvey said. "Exactly how that plays out, short term, long term, medium term, I don't know. Obviously, it clears a lot off next year as well. ... We're going to have to roll with the punches a little bit and figure out what we can add over the next few weeks leading into Opening Day." 

5 years and still trading for pitching........  because none are ready from the farm.........................

I hear the Yankees are looking for bandwagon fans  

[stringer bell]

With the current roster, I guess Urshela is the starting shortstop? Miranda or Arraez would be the third baseman with Kirilloff in left, Sano at first and Sanchez as the DH. Goodness, that is not a defense that will inspire confidence and it is a strikeout prone low BA group. Well, maybe Gray can be traded at the deadline.

[MN_ExPat]

20 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

Cruz and Berrios could easily be called salary dumps.  Those two moves freed up over 20 million last year.  It's just my opinion but that's what I call it.  Not irrationality any more than your irrational comment 

Let's try to play nice and say we agree to disagree.

[stringer bell]

19 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

Cruz and Berrios could easily be called salary dumps.  Those two moves freed up over 20 million last year.  It's just my opinion but that's what I call it.  Not irrationality any more than your irrational comment 

I disagree with terming the Cruz trade a salary dump. He became a free agent at the end of the season and he's 41 years old. Sending him to a contender netted talent that figures to far exceed the production Cruz could have offered in a lost season. That the team saved money there was an added bonus.

[bighat]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

That idea IMO makes the FO look worse, they are the ones that signed him two years ago, and that does make them look like they are throwing darts and hoping something works. Also if they truly wanted just to get rid of him and it wasn't amount money they could have spent money in FA. My guess is they said screw it on 2022, and the new deal came out with extra playoff teams and they thought we team that can compete, so the changed their plans, again.

Good grief. If the Twins would've kept him, as soon as Donaldson pulled a calf muscle this year everyone would be sitting here complaining that the Twins didn't get rid of him when they could have.

[jmlease1]

45 minutes ago, rv78 said:

I can understand the desire to get out from under Donaldsons contract. But doesn't that directly point to the FO making a mistake signing him in the first place? Did they think he would bring them a ring and just now realize he is deteriorating quickly? That his contract will be a detriment going forward?  

They signed Donaldson expecting to contend in the first two years of that deal and if they had an overpay in the last two years they were willing to accept that risk in favor of making a bigger push for those first two years. The first year, the Twins did contend, but Donaldson wasn't available in the playoffs, which was a big reason they signed him. Last year was a wreck for a variety of reasons, so they missed the window they expected to contend with Donaldson's expected peak value with the team. There's a difference between a bad call and things just not quite working out. Donaldson didn't quite work out, partly because of a weird pandemic season (in a normal year they probably could have made sure he was healthy going into the playoffs, instead of the weird sprint all teams were in) and partly because literally everything went wrong at the same time last season (which literally no one saw coming: all the projection systems had the Twins competing last year, and so did our fan base, which is also why so many people are so freakin' angry at the FO today; the disappointment seems to hit even harder than the performance). The thinking behind the move was sound...it just didn't work out the way they hoped. Donaldson actually provided fair value in those first two years, but injury timing was bad.

I think they saw this as an opportunity to get out from under the 4th year, and they took it. It's less about whether he's deteriorating rapidly vs just declining overall and where their window is shifting. Donaldson and his salary and his decline are greater risk to the team's prospects for 2023. And if moving the salary now positions themselves for someone like Story, then that's another risk they'll assume because that move sets themselves up to compete in 2022 while being in a very strong position for 2023 and forward, as opposed to having things be out of alignment in 2023.

Garver was probably not going to be a factor in 2023 either; he was going to be 32 at that point and if he's a guy who struggles to reach 100 games, you're not going to give him a significant extension. (remember, Garver has actually player fewer games over the past 3 seasons than the oft-injured Byron Buxton, is older, and plays the most strenuous position in the game) So this feels like a move made to try and get good value now for a player that was falling out of future plans.

But at the end of the day it comes down to what the next move is. If they land Story and Pineda, I look at this team and think they should be good enough to contend in the AL Central. If they don't, then the FO will have really made a mistake that can get trashed for, because they will have waited to deploy their budget until it was too late to give them any options if they missed on a critical signing. 

[Dman]

IMO signing Donaldson after the 2019 season was the Twins kind of going all in for 2020.  They had the Bomba squad and 3rd base was a hole that needed filling at that time.  Covid 2020 made the season a mess and Josh barley played.  He was just fine in 2021 though his numbers were a bit diminished but he was solid at the plate.  Moving ahead to 2022 and looking at the farm and even 40 man the Twins are pretty stacked with guys that project to play 2nd and third base (Arraez, Gordon, Miranda, Steer, Jullien, Severino among others.  What they don't have is much for shortstop depth.  If they can swap Donaldson's contract for Story's that would help more than keeping Donaldson.

The strange thing for me that Nick touched on is that the Twins were in such a hurry to unload Donaldsons salary that they way overpaid to unload him.  The Yankee's were talking about DFAing Sanchez he was so bad and his inclusion is a salary dump as much as Donaldson was for the Twins.  Urshela wasn't needed if they had Donaldson so the Yankee's unload Salary and the Twins gain someone who can play multiple positions but is solid at third.  Why the Twins had to give them Rortvedt in this exchange is beyond me because the Yankee's were already getting two significantly better players in the swap as it was and salary difference as it stand is only around 11M.  I mean it seems unlikely that Rortevedt will ever hit all that well but the Twins certainly could have used him this year.

The other thing is why make this deal if you don't already have a deal for Story in place?  Given what I am seeing although Story's market it thin there are no rumors he is close to a deal with the Twins.  If Story was the option they were looking for to fill short wouldn't you wait until you had agreement and then make the trade with Yankee's?  I have seen other rumors of a possible Montas or Manea trade that involve taking on the Elvis Andrus contract so there are other ways to get there but still just hanging out there with nothing seems like a bad idea IMO.  Unless of course you don't care that much about 2022 feeling like you can fall back on 2023 if needed?

At any rate Nick is right the FO no longer see's Donaldson as a fit and was wiling to make the team worse at least short term with the hope and a prayer that the market or trades work out in their favor in the end.  If not then apparently it is on to next year.

[JDubs]

People are really overreacting by saying the Twins blew up the catching spot. Garver was tough to see go, but he's a 31 year old catcher who has only topped 100 games in a season once in his career. Rortvedt is basically the definition of replacement-level, it will absolutely not be difficult in the slightest to sign a glove-first, no-hit catcher for cheap.

[bighat]

1 hour ago, Dave Overlund said:

I don't have a problem moving Donaldson, but blowing up the catcher position to do so is baffling. Again, it just comes down to money in my opinion.  It always does.

There are plenty of teams who would eat part of that salary to get something worthwhile back in return. 

About 20 teams in MLB would be happy to have Sanchez splitting time at the C position on their teams. Having a catcher with 30+ HR power who can DH on off days - along with a blossoming Jeffers - isn't exactly "blowing up" the position. That's my opinion, at least.

[roger]

I am both confused and disappointed.  Although a big Garver fan, I understood the Texas trade and really liked K-F as our shortstop for the next year(s).  And I was ok at catcher with Jeffers and Rortvedt, although I thought they should bring in a veteran backup so Ben could play every day at St. Paul for a few months.  

I keep reading in the paper and elsewhere references to Jeffers as a defensive first catcher.  What?  Did I miss something?  I also keep reading that with the Donaldson trade they have a ton of payroll available and more moves are coming.  Well, it has now been a day and a half and spring training is in full swing. 

The Twins need some type of catcher you would be comfortable putting into a game this year, preferably a young prospect like Rortvedt.  They need a shortstop, unless the Yankee is their guy until Lewis is ready and they feel that will be this summer (I don't know how they could know that two days into spring training).  If they want to compete this year, they need one more starter, although I would be ok with Gray, Bundy, Ryan, Ober and Dobnak (I know I am in a small minority with this opinion).  And yes, they could probably use one more good bullpen arm.  And after looking at Story's numbers away from Coors Field, I really hope he isn't their big move.

That's a lot of needs and so little time to get it done.  

[jmlease1]

26 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

Cruz and Berrios could easily be called salary dumps.  Those two moves freed up over 20 million last year.  It's just my opinion but that's what I call it.  Not irrationality any more than your irrational comment 

It kinda is? The cost savings is not what drove those deals. (to some extent the future cost on Berrios motivated the team to move him, but it was more about maximizing return) And you're simply wrong on the money, because the Twins had already paid half the contracts on both players, so it "freed up" closer to $10M, not $20M. 

A salary dump is what Cincinnati is doing, letting Miley go for nothing. We got back real players/prospects. You might be able to categorize the deal with the Yankees as a salary dump (they got the best player) but not Cruz/Berrios. You can rip the trade of both players if you want (I think you're on poor ground to do so with Cruz, because literally the only reason to oppose that trade was "I love Nelson Cruz", but there's much more room for disagreement on Berrios, especially considering he signed with Toronto without testing the FA market) but calling it a salary dump simply because Twins saved some money on the deal is silly.