Twins “showing interest” in Trevor Story

[Bradfoot]

32 minutes ago, se7799 said:

Then have the owners pocket the savings?  Or do you believe Villar is better than Story?

I would love to see the Twins spend money, just not on Story.  I view him as an obvious regression away from Colorado so why pay him like it won't happen?  He already declined a 9 figure deal so he thinks he will get a huge deal.

Villar is a low risk guy who really isn't a huge drop off from Story.  I am not saying that Story's away stats are a perfect example of what to expect but its obvious that his output will be less than his current level.  

 

Story away from Coors Field

.241/.310/.442

Villar Career

.258/.326/.403

[gunnarthor]

I actually don't want Story. If we have money, I'd spend most of it on pitching. I don't trust someone like Story to stick at short over his contract. That's why I liked adding IKF. If need be, we let Miranda play third, trust that some of our young prospects are major leaguers, and buy a pitching staff.

[Richmond Dude]

21 minutes ago, RpR said:

I don't care if he hits.200 if his fielding skills still makes him one of the top 3 or 4 short stops in the league.

As the Twins lost the Bomba Squad, they are going to need defense more than ever; I bet right now Buxton is wishing he had held out longer.

I think that Mr. and Mrs. Buxton want to live in Minnesota and raise their children there.  Understanding that is the key to understanding his contract.

[se7799]

10 minutes ago, Bradfoot said:

I would love to see the Twins spend money, just not on Story.  I view him as an obvious regression away from Colorado so why pay him like it won't happen?  He already declined a 9 figure deal so he thinks he will get a huge deal.

Villar is a low risk guy who really isn't a huge drop off from Story.  I am not saying that Story's away stats are a perfect example of what to expect but its obvious that his output will be somewhere between there and his current level.  

 

Story away from Coors Field

.241/.310/.442

Villar Career

.258/.326/.403

Definitely interesting, thanks for sharing.  I wonder what Villars away stats are compared to Story.

[KirbyDome89]

4 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

I actually don't want Story. If we have money, I'd spend most of it on pitching. I don't trust someone like Story to stick at short over his contract. That's why I liked adding IKF. If need be, we let Miranda play third, trust that some of our young prospects are major leaguers, and buy a pitching staff.

It sounds like he isn't signing anywhere that doesn't view him as a fixture at SS. Idk if that stance, or the team's can change a few years into the contract but for the moment he apparently has no interest in switching positions, and maybe he shouldn't.

[Mike Sixel]

17 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I'm much happier today... apparently I'm in the minority. If we sign Story - Urshela could be the rug. 

............................

These rumors today (Story and A's Pitching) are rumors that I really want to believe and I've been working real hard trying to not believe rumors lately. 

You really think they'll shelve Urshela for Miranda? I find that unlikely. 

[se7799]

15 minutes ago, Bradfoot said:

I would love to see the Twins spend money, just not on Story.  I view him as an obvious regression away from Colorado so why pay him like it won't happen?  He already declined a 9 figure deal so he thinks he will get a huge deal.

Villar is a low risk guy who really isn't a huge drop off from Story.  I am not saying that Story's away stats are a perfect example of what to expect but its obvious that his output will be less than his current level.  

 

Story away from Coors Field

.241/.310/.442

Villar Career

.258/.326/.403

Villar road split is 245/311/349.  Plus Story is historically a much better ss.  Not same player up to this point.  However never know in 2022

[se7799]

14 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

I actually don't want Story. If we have money, I'd spend most of it on pitching. I don't trust someone like Story to stick at short over his contract. That's why I liked adding IKF. If need be, we let Miranda play third, trust that some of our young prospects are major leaguers, and buy a pitching staff.

Never works to buy a pitching staff, but even if it did work...there honestly are not any pitchers left worth over 10 mil a year. Unless I am missing somebody.

[Cap'n Piranha]

21 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

I actually don't want Story. If we have money, I'd spend most of it on pitching. I don't trust someone like Story to stick at short over his contract. That's why I liked adding IKF. If need be, we let Miranda play third, trust that some of our young prospects are major leaguers, and buy a pitching staff.

What pitching are you going to spend money on right now?  I think I'd rather spend money on Story than money AND prospects on pitching.

[RpR]

Who would really want to pitch for a team that has sent most of its best players to other teams.

I think J.A. Happ is still available.

[Cap'n Piranha]

10 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

You really think they'll shelve Urshela for Miranda? I find that unlikely. 

I think (assuming the Twins sign Story), Polanco and Story will each play in the field 6x a week, and DH 0-1x a week, Urshela will play in the field 4-5x a week (1x 2B, 1x SS, 2-3x 3B), Miranda will play in the field 2-3x a week and DH 2-3x a week, and Arraez will bounce around a lot (LF 1x, 3B 1-2x, DH 1-2x).

As soon as one of those 4 guys gets hurt, playing time is no longer an issue.

[Cap'n Piranha]

1 minute ago, RpR said:

Who would really want to pitch for a team that has sent most of its best players to other teams.

I think J.A. Happ is still available.

Almost every pitcher still unsigned who wants to get paid in return for playing baseball.  Every pitcher under team control who doesn't want to retire and forgo millions in future earnings.  It's a pretty extensive list, actually.

[RpR]

1 minute ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Almost every pitcher still unsigned who wants to get paid in return for playing baseball.  Every pitcher under team control who doesn't want to retire and forgo millions in future earnings.  It's a pretty extensive list, actually.

The Twins did that last year; Shoemaker failed, until he pitched for the Saints; Happ was very good for St. Louis and not for the Twins, now maybe that says more about Twins coaching but pitchers are not  blind and after the way they dumped Shoemaker, they are not stupid either.

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

I think (assuming the Twins sign Story), Polanco and Story will each play in the field 6x a week, and DH 0-1x a week, Urshela will play in the field 4-5x a week (1x 2B, 1x SS, 2-3x 3B), Miranda will play in the field 2-3x a week and DH 2-3x a week, and Arraez will bounce around a lot (LF 1x, 3B 1-2x, DH 1-2x).

As soon as one of those 4 guys gets hurt, playing time is no longer an issue.

Where does Sano fit, or Kiriloff in that? Because I see a full DH field there......Assume you think Kiriloff is in LF and Sano at 1B? 

So, Sanchez basically sits 120 games? 

That all seems somewhat realistic. I just think people are jumping hte gun on Miranda opening on this roster (if they sign Story).

[Cap'n Piranha]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Agreed, but even then I think there's an argument to be made that downgrading at 3B and C wasn't necessary to fill the hole at SS. I'm treating the Gray trade as a separate entity, but if they don't buy an elite SS it certainly calls that move into question.  

For sure--the Twins could have signed Story even with Donaldson (whether they would is a separate debate).  I wasn't super high on the Gray trade in a vacuum (he's not that much less expensive than Stroman or Rodon, neither of whom would have required relinquishing a top-10 system prospect).  In essence, the Twins in that trade declared their belief that the first 6 years of Petty's career are worth less than $30M to $60M (the difference in cost between two years of Gray and Rodon/Stroman, plus Petty's wages in those 6 years).  That only makes sense if you're trying to compete now, and if that's the case, trading your starting third baseman and shortstop (who cost you your starting catcher) is completely nonsensical.  If no further big ticket move materializes, Falvine done screwed up.

[Cap'n Piranha]

3 minutes ago, RpR said:

The Twins did that last year; Shoemaker failed, until he pitched for the Saints; Happ was very good for St. Louis and not for the Twins, now maybe that says more about Twins coaching but pitchers are not  blind and after the way they dumped Shoemaker, they are not stupid either.

I don't think you got my point.  You asked who would want to pitch for a team giving away its best players (I inferred you meant the Twins).  I responded that virtually any pitcher would want to pitch for the Twins, either because it means they choose to sign with the Twins (with opening day barely three weeks away, time grows short), or they were traded to the Twins.  In the case of the trade, that pitcher could certainly retire instead of suit up for the Twins, but that would mean forgoing millions in wages--I consider that to be an unlikely event.

[Cap'n Piranha]

6 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Where does Sano fit, or Kiriloff in that? Because I see a full DH field there......Assume you think Kiriloff is in LF and Sano at 1B? 

So, Sanchez basically sits 120 games? 

That all seems somewhat realistic. I just think people are jumping hte gun on Miranda opening on this roster (if they sign Story).

I imagine Sano and Kiriloff will split 1B, with AK also getting a fair amount of time in LF/spelling Kepler in RF/playing RF when Kepler plays CF.  Given Sanchez' recent production, I'm not sure the Twins are super keen on getting him a lot of PAs--I imagine he will play mostly as a bench piece (assuming he doesn't get flipped somewhere).

I'm not totally opposed to the idea that Miranda starts in AAA either, and gets called up when the first injury hits, I just tend to think that out of a 5-man non-1B infield crew of Polanco/Story/Arraez/Miranda/Urshela, Urshela is the guy I'd want getting the fewest PAs.

[Bradfoot]

32 minutes ago, se7799 said:

Villar road split is 245/311/349.  Plus Story is historically a much better ss.  Not same player up to this point.  However never know in 2022

Villar's road splits aren't really relevant since he is not leaving hitter paradise like Story would be.  The question isn't can Story ever hit on the road, the question is how much of his success is linked to being in Colorado.

[Richmond Dude]

29 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

I think (assuming the Twins sign Story), Polanco and Story will each play in the field 6x a week, and DH 0-1x a week, Urshela will play in the field 4-5x a week (1x 2B, 1x SS, 2-3x 3B), Miranda will play in the field 2-3x a week and DH 2-3x a week, and Arraez will bounce around a lot (LF 1x, 3B 1-2x, DH 1-2x).

As soon as one of those 4 guys gets hurt, playing time is no longer an issue.

I'd pay to watch this and, frankly, I think I would enjoy watching this, too.

 

People always forget that these guys get days off and that means that, for a decent player who can play multiple positions and bat reasonable well, there is always plenty of playing time to be spread around.

[Riverbrian]

42 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

You really think they'll shelve Urshela for Miranda? I find that unlikely. 

It's not that unlikely unless of course Urshela is doing well and if he's doing well why would you want to shelve him at all. 

Miranda will probably start in Rochester but with Urshela at 3B the utilization of Miranda increases in multiples.

If Story gets hurt... Urshela can slide to SS and Miranda can show us what he can do. 

If Polanco gets hurt... Urshela can take a breather at 3B to allow Miranda to play while he replaces Polanco on the active roster... and show us what he can do. 

If Miranda doesn't show us anything... We still have Urshela. 

With Donaldson on the roster...  the options for Miranda to DH or wait for Donaldson specifically to get hurt... which... yeah I know... was always likely anyway. 

This is the type of roster that I'm looking for. Options... competition for playing time... depth. 

Story would be a perfect get. 

[tony&rodney]

Urshela is a utility player only, same position as Arraez and Gordon. Arraez might get plugged in to third if the Twins don't like Miranda, but I'm not exactly sure what else Miranda needs to prove in the minor leagues. Sanchez is a DH. If you saw him play enough behind the plate you know why the Yankee pitchers asked for the other catcher. Maybe the Twins can trade both of the new guys to save some money.

[chpettit19]

31 minutes ago, Bradfoot said:

Villar's road splits aren't really relevant since he is not leaving hitter paradise like Story would be.  The question isn't can Story ever hit on the road, the question is how much of his success is linked to being in Colorado.

Story's road numbers: 1544 PA, 80 2B, 6 3B, 63 HR, 58 SB, .241/.310/.442/.752
Villar's numbers anywhere: 3714 PA, 155 2B, 17 3B, 98 HR, 232 SB, .258/.326/.403/.729
Story has been better on the road than Villar has been anywhere. And that's not even taking into account the struggle of bouncing between high and low altitude throughout the year. Villar has had an OPS+ over 100 4 times in his 9 year career. Trevor Story has had an OPS+ over 100 5 times in his 6 year career. Villar wRC+ over 100 4 out of 9, Story wRC+ over 100 5 out of 6. Career wRC+ (which takes into account the stadiums you play in so playing in Colorado doesn't give him an artificial boost) Story 112, Villar 97. Story is a way, way, way, way, way better player than Jonathan Villar.

You're also coming at this from a lack of understanding of how home/road splits for Colorado players really work. Their home numbers are better than they should be, but their road numbers are worse than they should be. Playing a homestand and getting used to how pitches break at altitude and then going on the road and having to adjust to the pitches doing completely different things makes their road numbers worse than they should be. Home/road splits for Colorado superstars are not to be trusted. Nolan Arenado had 34 HRs and a 113 wRC+ in St Louis last year. Think they regret trading for and paying him?

[Bradfoot]

39 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Story's road numbers: 1544 PA, 80 2B, 6 3B, 63 HR, 58 SB, .241/.310/.442/.752
Villar's numbers anywhere: 3714 PA, 155 2B, 17 3B, 98 HR, 232 SB, .258/.326/.403/.729
Story has been better on the road than Villar has been anywhere. And that's not even taking into account the struggle of bouncing between high and low altitude throughout the year. Villar has had an OPS+ over 100 4 times in his 9 year career. Trevor Story has had an OPS+ over 100 5 times in his 6 year career. Villar wRC+ over 100 4 out of 9, Story wRC+ over 100 5 out of 6. Career wRC+ (which takes into account the stadiums you play in so playing in Colorado doesn't give him an artificial boost) Story 112, Villar 97. Story is a way, way, way, way, way better player than Jonathan Villar.

You're also coming at this from a lack of understanding of how home/road splits for Colorado players really work. Their home numbers are better than they should be, but their road numbers are worse than they should be. Playing a homestand and getting used to how pitches break at altitude and then going on the road and having to adjust to the pitches doing completely different things makes their road numbers worse than they should be. Home/road splits for Colorado superstars are not to be trusted. Nolan Arenado had 34 HRs and a 113 wRC+ in St Louis last year. Think they regret trading for and paying him?

Arenado was fine in St Louis.  Was he as good as he was in Colorado? No.  His 34 homeruns and 113wRC+ are his lowest output since 2014.  He regressed by leaving Colorado.  He averaged a WAR of 5.65 from 2016-2019 and dropped to 4.0 away from Colorado.  What if Story sees a similar 30% drop in WAR by leaving Colorado?  He would be pretty darn close to 2021 Villar WAR territory.

 

Look at it this way, in 2019 hitters in general (away teams included) batted .307/.370/.526 at Coors Field while the league average was .255/.322/.431.  The Rockies won 71 games that year so it's not like they were boosting that discrepancy by being an elite offense.

 

Just compare Story's career Home stat line to that 2019 average of everyone at Coors.

Story .303/.369/.603

League .307/.370/.526

[jud6312]

4 hours ago, Joey P said:

Not according to the post above, the triple slash away from COORS is .310/.442/.752

Then I used the wrong numbers. It's on Baseball Reference. Look it up yourself if you like.

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, Bradfoot said:

Arenado was fine in St Louis.  Was he as good as he was in Colorado? No.  His 34 homeruns and 113wRC+ are his lowest output since 2014.  He regressed by leaving Colorado.  He averaged a WAR of 5.65 from 2016-2019 and dropped to 4.0 away from Colorado.  What if Story sees a similar 30% drop in WAR by leaving Colorado? 

Over that same 4 year time Story averaged 3.9 fWAR (looks like you're using fangraphs) and Villar averaged 2.14 (including a negative WAR year, yikes) so Story would still be almost a entire win better than Villar and would have a better season than all but 2 of Villars 9 years to this point.

And Arenado was 36th in all of baseball in position player fWAR last year. That's "fine" in your book, but you'd be happy with Villar who's had 2 years of at least a 3 WAR and only 4 out of 9 reaching 2 WAR at SS? Not to mention Story has had positive defensive WAR (again, according to fangraphs) every year of his career while Villar has had 1 in 9 years. Story is a far superior player.

[Bradfoot]

11 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Over that same 4 year time Story averaged 3.9 fWAR (looks like you're using fangraphs) and Villar averaged 2.14 (including a negative WAR year, yikes) so Story would still be almost a entire win better than Villar and would have a better season than all but 2 of Villars 9 years to this point.

And Arenado was 36th in all of baseball in position player fWAR last year. That's "fine" in your book, but you'd be happy with Villar who's had 2 years of at least a 3 WAR and only 4 out of 9 reaching 2 WAR at SS? Not to mention Story has had positive defensive WAR (again, according to fangraphs) every year of his career while Villar has had 1 in 9 years. Story is a far superior player.

Arenado is a far superior player to Story, I'm not questioning his ability.  He clearly regressed by leaving Colorado.  He was 12th in War for 2019, 11th in 2018, and 12th in 2017.  If Story saw the same 30% regression in WAR that Arenado did that 3.9 becomes 2.73, not that far off from 2.14, closer to half a win better.

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, Bradfoot said:

Arenado is a far superior player to Story, I'm not questioning his ability.  He clearly regressed by leaving Colorado.  He was 12th in War for 2019.  If Story saw the same 30% regression in WAR that Arenado did that 3.9 become 2.73, not that far off from 2.14, closer to half a win better.

 

Not to mention a 5 year deal or longer would probably show some age related declines from Story as well.

Villar is 2 years older than Story so you're worried about his decline now, right? Far superior player? Their peaks have both been 5-6 WAR.  Arenado has a longer career, but their peak abilities are basically the exact same.

Signing Villar to play SS for the 2022 MN Twins would be a sign that the FO was not trying to contend. Which would make trading Petty for Gray a very questionable decision. And trading Garver and Donaldson for non-minor league players just as questionable. Jonathan Villar has no chance at being an impact player. Story does. Story has been. And Story can at least field the position.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

4 hours ago, Joey P said:

D*** Yankees!!! Can I get an amen!!!

Amen

[Bradfoot]

46 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Villar is 2 years older than Story so you're worried about his decline now, right? Far superior player? Their peaks have both been 5-6 WAR.  Arenado has a longer career, but their peak abilities are basically the exact same.

Signing Villar to play SS for the 2022 MN Twins would be a sign that the FO was not trying to contend. Which would make trading Petty for Gray a very questionable decision. And trading Garver and Donaldson for non-minor league players just as questionable. Jonathan Villar has no chance at being an impact player. Story does. Story has been. And Story can at least field the position.

Arenado has sustained that "peak" for more than 2 seasons and not just for what is commonly called the juiced ball year.

Agree to disagree I guess.  I do not see Story as a difference maker or a sizable leap from a Villar type that can be had for less than half the cost or commitment.

 

[glunn]

8 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

1. Sign Story - four years, $90MM. Better yet, Correa - six years, $150MM. Declare SS victory. 

2. Miranda makes the team out of spring training and cements his place at 3B. Urshela gets moved at the deadline - to expensive to be a utility player (we’ve got those already in younger, cheaper and likely better versions with LA and JG).

3. I have no idea where we find catching help, because we are one Jeffers injury away from disaster - especially with a young staff. Sanchez is a millstone and is the worst of the four catchers who have been on the Twins roster in the past 48 hours.  Prediction: gone no later than the trade deadline.

4. Sign Big Mike to a one year deal with an option and buyout.

5. Add at least one solid RP.

6. Play baseball. 

Not to be greedy, but trading with Oakland to get Montas seems like a good idea to complete this picture.