Twins “showing interest” in Trevor Story

[chpettit19]

29 minutes ago, jud6312 said:

Nobody else at all concerned about Story's home/away splits? They're pretty drastic:

 

Career Home: .369/.603/.972

Career Away: .310/.442/.752

 

2021:

Home: .365/.515/.880

Away: .292/.426/.718

 

Career high OPS away from Coors: .792 in the shortened 2020.

 

I'm not saying I'm opposed, and he's better than the current in-house options, but 9 figures for a guy that historically performs significantly worse away from CO is (IMO) a risky proposition for an organization that doesn't have a track record of carrying multiple players with "big money" contracts.

 

 

Colorado player splits are a whole different monster. There are advantages to playing at higher altitude, but it's balanced by the disadvantages of hitting on the road. They're finding more and more that the first handful of games on the road after playing at altitude hurts pretty much everyone's numbers as they try to adjust to the different things pitches do at lower elevation. Stats like wRC+ take park factors into account and Story has still been 17% above league average since 2018. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Just now, Joey P said:

Not according to the post above, the triple slash away from COORS is .310/.442/.752

Some people use the triple slash to mean OBP/SLG/OPS.

Story's career BA is .272 so that would be pretty wild if it was somehow .310 on the road.

[USAFChief]

1 minute ago, Joey P said:

Not according to the post above, the triple slash away from COORS is .310/.442/.752

That's OBP/SLG/OPS.

 

Which isn't how a triple slash line should be posted, I agree. 

[Joey P]

It was very misleading. I was going to say, what are people complaining about, lol. Besides, with a stellar glove at shortstop, any offense above league average is icing on the cake. It's like catcher. The three positions up the middle are premium defensive positions. Offense is usually secondary. 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

3 minutes ago, Joey P said:

Besides, with a stellar glove at shortstop, any offense above league average is icing on the cake. It's like catcher. The three positions up the middle are premium defensive positions. Offense is usually secondary.

Fangraphs raised some questions about Story's defensive metrics in their 2022 Top 50 Free Agents write-up:

"If there’s cause for concern, it’s on defense, and I’ll be honest: I’m not sure what to think. Per DRS, Story was excellent, but DRS seems to systematically overrate Colorado infield defenders. From 2010-21, DRS thought the Rockies had the best infield defense by roughly 130 runs, 285 runs above average. It also thought they had the worst outfield defense, 205 runs below average. UZR and OAA both think that the Rockies have been good at infield defense — they’ve had a ton of talented defenders — but place them firmly in the fray, not head and shoulders above everyone else.

In 2021, DRS thought Story was as good as ever, UZR thought he was slightly above average, and OAA thought he was awful. Which metric teams see as closest to predictive will go a long way towards determining what contract he gets, because a league-average bat at shortstop is valuable, but particularly so if he’s also an elite defender."

[Bradfoot]

I would personally stay away from Story, C.J Cron is a good example of how Coors Field can make average hitters look like All Stars.  Correa is probably going to get too much money over too many years.  I would go for a Jonathan Villar type signing and focus on getting another pitcher.

 

C.J Cron on the Twins

.253/.311/.469 wRC+ 101, WAR 0.3

CJ Cron on the Rockies

.281/.375/.530 wRC+ 127, WAR 2.3

[Cap'n Piranha]

If Story or Correa is not starting at SS for the Twins on Opening Day, then this series of movies was a mistake.  There is no reason to give up your starting catcher, shortstop, third baseman, and a top prospect, for 2 years of a good-not-great pitcher, a questionable DH, and a guy who's best being a utility player.

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, Bradfoot said:

I would personally stay away from Story, C.J Cron is a good example of how Coors Field can make average hitters look like All Stars.  Correa is probably going to get too much money over too many years.  I would go for a Jonathan Villar type signing and focus on getting another pitcher.

 

C.J Cron on the Twins

.253/.311/.469 wRC+ 101, WAR 0.3

CJ Cron on the Rockies

.281/.375/.530 wRC+ 127, WAR 2.3

They can afford both Story and a pitcher. 

[Cap'n Piranha]

3 minutes ago, Bradfoot said:

I would personally stay away from Story, C.J Cron is a good example of how Coors Field can make average hitters look like All Stars.  Correa is probably going to get too much money over too many years.  I would go for a Jonathan Villar type signing and focus on getting another pitcher.

 

C.J Cron on the Twins

.253/.311/.469 wRC+ 101, WAR 0.3

CJ Cron on the Rockies

.281/.375/.530 wRC+ 127, WAR 2.3

There are no pitchers available for just money anymore.  Fangraphs estimates the Twins payroll for 2022 as currently at $94M--that's just not acceptable if the Twins are trying to compete, and if the Twins aren't trying to compete, why in the heck did they trade for Sonny Gray (absent somehow finding out Cincy was willing to just give him away, relatively speaking, and they think they can flip him for something better than Petty).  The Twins, if they are competing, should have no qualms upping their payroll by $30M to $40M--it will be hard for them to do that without signing either Story or Correa at this point.

[Bradfoot]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

They can afford both Story and a pitcher. 

I'm not saying they can't afford Story.  I am saying I do not want to take a risk on Story.  MLBTR had guessed Story would get something like 6/126M.  $21M per year for 6 years is a good chunk of change to tie up to someone who might be getting a substantial boost from playing in Colorado.

 

Correa is the one we can't afford if he is going to get his 10+ years at 300M+.

[Otto von Ballpark]

6 minutes ago, Bradfoot said:

I would personally stay away from Story, C.J Cron is a good example of how Coors Field can make average hitters look like All Stars.

C.J Cron on the Twins

.253/.311/.469 wRC+ 101, WAR 0.3

CJ Cron on the Rockies

.281/.375/.530 wRC+ 127, WAR 2.3

I'm not denying there could be a Coors Field effect, but there's a lot of noise in most examples like this.

C.J. Cron on the Rays (2018)

.253/.323/.493 wRC+ 124, WAR 2.2

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, Bradfoot said:

I'm not saying they can't afford Story.  I am saying I do not want to take a risk on Story.  MLBTR had guessed Story would get something like 6/126M.  $21M per year for 6 years is a good chunk of change to tie up to someone who might be getting a substantial boost from playing in Colorado.

 

Correa is the one we can't afford if he is going to get his 10+ years at 300M+.

You'd rather have the certainty of a bad SS, than the possibility of an ok to great one? That's fair, but then don't expect this team to be good. 

[Bradfoot]

2 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

There are no pitchers available for just money anymore.  Fangraphs estimates the Twins payroll for 2022 as currently at $94M--that's just not acceptable if the Twins are trying to compete, and if the Twins aren't trying to compete, why in the heck did they trade for Sonny Gray (absent somehow finding out Cincy was willing to just give him away, relatively speaking, and they think they can flip him for something better than Petty).  The Twins, if they are competing, should have no qualms upping their payroll by $30M to $40M--it will be hard for them to do that without signing either Story or Correa at this point.

If they were to get 1 or 2 pitchers (either trade or Free Agent) you're probably talking about $10-20M.  Another bullpen arm would help, another SS signing.  That $94M can be up around 130M pretty quick.  They don't need to grab the first long expensive contract out there just because it is there.

[Bradfoot]

5 minutes ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

I'm not denying there could be a Coors Field effect, but there's a lot of noise in most examples like this.

C.J. Cron on the Rays (2018)

.253/.323/.493 wRC+ 124, WAR 2.2

That Ray's year was his only thing close and it was the magical 28 year old season for him.  But either way, there is just way more evidence of a player leaving Coors worse than he was there and being better when arriving there.  I certainly wouldn't expect Story to average 3+ WAR away from Coors.  Do we want to be the team to gamble especially if it costs somewhere around 20M+ over 5+ years. 

 

I would much rather have a Villar type on a shorter deal.

[KirbyDome89]

21 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

If Story or Correa is not starting at SS for the Twins on Opening Day, then this series of movies was a mistake.  There is no reason to give up your starting catcher, shortstop, third baseman, and a top prospect, for 2 years of a good-not-great pitcher, a questionable DH, and a guy who's best being a utility player.

Agreed, but even then I think there's an argument to be made that downgrading at 3B and C wasn't necessary to fill the hole at SS. I'm treating the Gray trade as a separate entity, but if they don't buy an elite SS it certainly calls that move into question.  

[Bradfoot]

12 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

You'd rather have the certainty of a bad SS, than the possibility of an ok to great one? That's fair, but then don't expect this team to be good. 

Who is the certainty of a bad SS in this scenario?

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Bradfoot said:

Who is the certainty of a bad SS in this scenario?

Any FA SS not named Story or Correa. But, that's just my opinion. there is a non zero chance Villar is better for 1 or 2 years. I wouldn't take that chance....

[tony&rodney]

10 minutes ago, Bradfoot said:

If they were to get 1 or 2 pitchers (either trade or Free Agent)

FWIW, Greinke is the only free agent still available. So no FA, unless you are begging for Happ to return. There are trades that could be made but none for a pitcher that makes more than $10 million. 

[Bradfoot]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Any FA SS not named Story or Correa. 

If Villar matches his 2.1 WAR from last year and Story regresses from his 3ish average aren't we talking about roughly the same player for less than half the price.

[Cap'n Piranha]

8 minutes ago, Bradfoot said:

If they were to get 1 or 2 pitchers (either trade or Free Agent) you're probably talking about $10-20M.  Another bullpen arm would help, another SS signing.  That $94M can be up around 130M pretty quick.  They don't need to grab the first long expensive contract out there just because it is there.

They don't need it just because it's there.  They need it because the Twins have currently 0 even average options at shortstop in their entire system.  It's not like Lewis is a surefire stick at short, and I'm not enthused about Urshela, Polanco, or Gordon as even a platoon option.  Not only do the Twins have $35M to $45M they could easily spend now, they can shed the Sano and Sanchez contracts after this year--that's close to $12M even if you account for Sano's buyout.  Kepler is off the books the year after that--that's $20Mish that is easily replaceable, and there are very few things money can better be spent on than a SS who's 6th in the league in WAR amongst SS's since becoming a full-time regular.

[Bradfoot]

3 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

FWIW, Greinke is the only free agent still available. So no FA, unless you are begging for Happ to return. There are trades that could be made but none for a pitcher that makes more than $10 million. 

Twins were in talks to acquire Sean Manaea (10.2M)  Luis Castillo is another possible candidate at 7.6M with another Arbitration raise next season that could also push 10M.

[Bradfoot]

2 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

They don't need it just because it's there.  They need it because the Twins have currently 0 even average options at shortstop in their entire system.  It's not like Lewis is a surefire stick at short, and I'm not enthused about Urshela, Polanco, or Gordon as even a platoon option.  Not only do the Twins have $35M to $45M they could easily spend now, they can shed the Sano and Sanchez contracts after this year--that's close to $12M even if you account for Sano's buyout.  Kepler is off the books the year after that--that's $20Mish that is easily replaceable, and there are very few things money can better be spent on than a SS who's 6th in the league in WAR amongst SS's since becoming a full-time regular.

I support a SS signing by the way, just not a big one.  I also agree Lewis is not a surefire stick at short but why sign a long, expensive, and risky contract to block him anyway. 

[tony&rodney]

3 minutes ago, Bradfoot said:

Twins were in talks to acquire Sean Manaea (10.2M)  Luis Castillo is another possible candidate at 7.6M with another Arbitration raise next season that could also push 10M.

My point was that it would be nearly impossible for the Twins to spend at previous or  expected levels. Plenty can change in a hurry, as we saw on the weekend, but the trend is worrisome.

[gil4]

8 hours ago, big dog said:

Ah but...what if we add Story and DREW BUTERA??? How about that?

That might seriously be the plan.

We need someone to catch. We just traded 2 of our top 3 (plus was Donaldson an emergency option? I know he started as a catcher) 

The fact that Rortvedt was called up means there can't be too many feasible options in the minors. 

[RpR]

They will wish they had kept Astudillo.

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, Bradfoot said:

I support a SS signing by the way, just not a big one.  I also agree Lewis is not a surefire stick at short but why sign a long, expensive, and risky contract to block him anyway. 

I'd love to block Lewis and trade him (with others?) for a legit SP. I understand your concern, but at some point, you got to roll the dice, and for me, I'd roll these dice.

[se7799]

18 minutes ago, Bradfoot said:

That Ray's year was his only thing close and it was the magical 28 year old season for him.  But either way, there is just way more evidence of a player leaving Coors worse than he was there and being better when arriving there.  I certainly wouldn't expect Story to average 3+ WAR away from Coors.  Do we want to be the team to gamble especially if it costs somewhere around 20M+ over 5+ years. 

 

I would much rather have a Villar type on a shorter deal.

Then have the owners pocket the savings?  Or do you believe Villar is better than Story?

[RpR]

I don't care if he hits.200 if his fielding skills still makes him one of the top 3 or 4 short stops in the league.

As the Twins lost the Bomba Squad, they are going to need defense more than ever; I bet right now Buxton is wishing he had held out longer.

[Cap'n Piranha]

18 minutes ago, Bradfoot said:

I support a SS signing by the way, just not a big one.  I also agree Lewis is not a surefire stick at short but why sign a long, expensive, and risky contract to block him anyway. 

There are worse problems to have than 2 MLB-caliber shortstops on the big league roster at the same time.

[Riverbrian]

I'm much happier today... apparently I'm in the minority. If we sign Story - Urshela could be the rug. 

If we sign Story - Urshela will provide decent depth at the position. Miranda now has a place to play if the time is now and it probably should be now. Urshela can provide decent depth at 3B as well in case things don't go well for Miranda.

WIth Donaldson at third. We would have to wait for an injury to get a good look at Miranda. We wouldn't have to wait long for that to happen and if we wouldn't have to wait long for an injury. The money is better allocated elsewhere. Finding a taker fo Donaldson was a good move in my opinion. BUT... only if we sign Story with the moeny... or trade for an equivalent SS.

Re-allocating those dollars to Story opens up space for Miranda, Arraez, Urshela, Kirilloff, Larnach, Sano. All of them and we got decent depth everywhere. 

1B - Sano, Kiriloff

2B - Polanco, Arraez, Gordon, Urshela

3B - Miranda, Urshela, Arraez, Gordon

SS - Story, Urshela, Gordon

LF - KIriloff, Larnach, Rooker, Arraez, Gordon

CF - Buxton, Kepler, Gordon

RF - Kepler, Kirilloff, Larnach, Rooker

C - Jeffers, Sanchez

DH - Rooker, Kiriloff, Larnach, Arraez, Sano... All of them

Now of course... if we sign Story - Someone will have to go from the above list. Gordon or Rooker I assume

Or.... maybe a guy like Larnach could be sent to the A's for a year of Manaea plus a reliever like Trevino.

Or Larnach as part of a package for Montas. 

GO GET STORY! 

These rumors today (Story and A's Pitching) are rumors that I really want to believe and I've been working real hard trying to not believe rumors lately.