Assessing the Donaldson and Kiner-Falefa Trade With the Yankees

[Doctor Gast]

6 hours ago, MinnInPa said:

sorry, but, Rortvedt will never be a #1 catcher in the bigs.. i say good riddance. Adding Story , Peneida + lefty starter would help..Gray, Ryan, Ober, Bundy?? + ? ... we have the hitting..but obviously pitching is still not up to beating the big boys

Rortvedt is our best defensive catcher with a much better arm than Jeffers. LH hitting catchers are a premium, when given time to hone his batting skills, I can see him a better hitter than Jeffers.

 Many were down on Rortvedt because his hitting was subpar in his early intro to the Bigs. Daulton Varsho another LH hitting catcher (also from Wisc.) had simular stats his 1st call up. But had much better stats his next year, now he is a highly rated catcher.

Trading Rortvedt IMO was our greatest loss, in what he can bring in the near future. I would not do this trade or TX trade. I'd figure some thing else out and trade Arraez and Jeffers for front line pitching. 

[Obie]

FWIW, ESPN+ gives the Yankees a B on this trade and a B+ to the Twins. Their rationale assumes further moves based upon freeing up significant salary space this year and into the future.

[Platoon]

So are we now back to the 3 catchers on the roster situation if Sanchez is the DH? 

[cHawk]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

There are no pitchers to sign. 

But why not keep Donaldson AND sign Story?

They had plenty of payroll space. Oodles. There was zero need to salary dump. 

I do agree I'll be shocked if Story is a Twin, though. And pissed he's not lining up next to Donaldson. 

They do have Miranda ready to replace Donaldson. I think they want to allocate the Donaldson money towards a starting pitcher they bring in via trade.

[Game7-91]

And in related news:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/03/twins-trade-rumors-frankie-montas-sean-manaea-athletics.html

[roger]

Does anyone know what each of the incoming Yankee's salaries are and how long before free-agency?  I saw that Urshela will make $6.5M this year, but how long is he under contract?  I think I saw that Sanchez is a free-agent this year, but what is his salary?

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, roger said:

Does anyone know what each of the incoming Yankee's salaries are and how long before free-agency?  I think I saw that Sanchez is a free-agent this year, but what is his salary?

Roster resource on fangraphs has all your answers 

[Twins33]

3 minutes ago, roger said:

Does anyone know what each of the incoming Yankee's salaries are and how long before free-agency?  I think I saw that Sanchez is a free-agent this year, but what is his salary?

Sanchez: 1/7.5

Urshela: 2 years. 6.55 this year and ARB 3 next year 

[RpR]

3 hours ago, KFEY93 said:

They were going to be regardless. They needed 3 new proven good to great pitchers in both the rotation and bull pen and that wasnt going to happen. 

GEE, now we will have poor fielding skills to go with sub-average pitching, BRILLIANT, fans stayed home last year and more will stay home this year.

100 losses, every fans dream.

[Bradfoot]

This trade seems to fall in line with my speculation that Gray could be traded if we are not in the mix for a playoff spot.  They can easily dump Urshela, and Sanchez for more prospects at the deadline.  Adding to it is that we removed the riskier years of Donaldson's contract as he approaches 40.  Every move so far seems like we are taking a chance on competing this year without locking us into an immediate win-now window.

 

If we fall out of the race again, we can look to unload any of Urshela, Sanchez, Gray, Kepler, Duffey, Bundy and get another influx of nearly ready prospects to help in 23 and beyond.

[roger]

13 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Roster resource on fangraphs has all your answers 

Thanks, Mike.  Wasn't someplace I went to before. 

So unless there is another deal in the works with a team who wants one or both of these guys, this has to be viewed as a way to unload Donaldson's salary.  Unfortunately, on the surface this appears to me to the Yankee's taking our FO to the woodshed.

[RpR]

10 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

I guess this is what it took to move JD and have the Yankees take all his salary. Too bad the FO couldn’t have found another deal. Ideally, they would have just moved JD and signed Story (which I’m assuming they are going to do now). Urshela helps Miranda ease in, but, if that transition is successful, there is no reason for Urshela to be on the team - so he’d get moved at the trade deadline.

Decimating the catching depth is very confusing. Sanchez is just not very good anymore - certainly not as good as Garver and, if his hitting continues its deterioration, I’d rather have Rortvedt as well. The Yankee sites are saying that Rortvedt will platoon at C - so someone there had enough respect for his game to not only carry him on the roster, but feed him plenty of innings.

Again, getting a couple of has beens who carry some cash costs and we hope will rebound or otherwise we will jettison is a pretty high cost to pay to move JD’s salary and give up a couple very solid depth catchers.

Signing Story will help, but couldn’t we have just done that anyway?

So a year from now (or maybe next week or by the trade deadline) if everything goes as likely will happen, Miranda will be at 3B, Story will be at SS, Urshela and Sanchez will be gone, the Twins will be looking for catching depth, and will some extra cash on hand. Not a disaster, but sure will be a roundabout way to get there. 

 

We had a excellent defense with one above average bat and another who was no worse than what they dumped talent for.

Now we have holes at third and short stop, even if they get Story they will be far below what they had last year.

 They still have nothing in left field even a decent shadow of what they let go, stupidity has just rewards.

[Mike Sixel]

17 minutes ago, roger said:

Thanks, Mike.  Wasn't someplace I went to before. 

So unless there is another deal in the works with a team who wants one or both of these guys, this has to be viewed as a way to unload Donaldson's salary.  Unfortunately, on the surface this appears to me to the Yankee's taking our FO to the woodshed.

It is a great tool, which is why I didn't just answer your question. 

[Wyotwinsfan]

I have never been a real fan of this front office but I like what they are doing so far.  I think they have a plan and we need to give them a few days to work it out.  I think the Donaldson move is freeing up money to spend on a shortstop.  Great shortstops are hard to come by, and if Story is healthy he can be great.  They still need to add some pitching to make this successful, but these moves might be coming.   I hope I am right, otherwise it’s going to be another rough season that is pretty much over by May.   

[Mike Sixel]

Given what the A's just did (getting a great C prospect)....I think the Twins get a SP and C from the A's, most likely today or tomorrow.

[tony&rodney]

 

 

Via baseballprospectus.com

TWINS PAYROLLS
Year	Opening Day 26-man	Year End 40-man	CB Tax 40-man
2022	$000,000,000 (00)	$000,000,000 (00)	$000,000,000 (00)
2021	$125,277,666 (16)	$125,983,176 (17)	$145,511,247 (16)
2020	$ 45,620,603 (18)	$  52,627,942 (19)	$168,319,022 (16)
2019	$119,651,933 (18)	$125,205,980 (18)	$139,483,897 (18)
2018	$128,713,226 (18)	$131,186,562 (19)	$143,820,218 (18)

 

It is noteworthy that the last two years were tough financially, yet this must be balanced against large profits for all of the previous years. Also to be noted is that the books are private and so all figures are rough estimates.

The figure repeatedly referenced in trading Josh Donaldson is a savings of $50 million. That doesn't account for the roughly $14-15 million cost of taking on a utility infielder and a DH with enormous power but a bat with many more holes than we ever saw from Miguel Sano. It also neglects the loss of a decent shortstop and a catcher with potential.

Many have stated that the Twins wanted to clear money to trade for pitchers. There aren't any pitchers making more than $10 million to acquire (Montas - $5.2, Manaea - $10, Castillo - $8.0, Mahle - $5.0, Lopez - $3.75). Adding any two of these pitchers in trades and signing Trevor Story would still leave the Twins around last years budget. 

So there is work to be done and we are hoping the final roster gets straightened out. The angst about JD's contract and the budget are only relevant if the Twins are trending toward roster budgets much lower than seen in the Falvey era.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

11 hours ago, h2oface said:

"His 96 OPS+ basically was league average, however, and he’s just 30-years-old. He’s not the defensive stalwart Donaldson is at the hot corner, but he’s hardly a butcher either."

Just 30. Inference that Ushela is youngish, but many were considering Garver over the hill at just turned 31. Hmmmmm.

Catching takes a toll on a players legs. just look at Donaldson, who came to the majors as a catcher. I was against signing Donaldson when he was signed. This salary dump of Donaldson is Falvine's doing, because he signed Donaldson in the first place. I told you so, when Donaldson was signed. 

[rickyriolo]

Pure salary dump by Twins. Had a chance to move Donaldson's contract and took it

[RpR]

1 hour ago, Bradfoot said:

This trade seems to fall in line with my speculation that Gray could be traded if we are not in the mix for a playoff spot.  They can easily dump Urshela, and Sanchez for more prospects at the deadline.  Adding to it is that we removed the riskier years of Donaldson's contract as he approaches 40.  Every move so far seems like we are taking a chance on competing this year without locking us into an immediate win-now window.

 

If we fall out of the race again, we can look to unload any of Urshela, Sanchez, Gray, Kepler, Duffey, Bundy and get another influx of nearly ready prospects to help in 23 and beyond.

Twins set new league season losses record, shizzam!

[Major League Ready]

4 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Why not just sign a pitcher and not deal prospects for one, if he's pricy? If he's not pricy, you didn't need to free up money. 

People really think they'll sign Story? To like a seven year deal? I'll be shocked.

There are not many team with the money to sign Story left looking for a SS and Houston would appear unwilling to go to age 35 for a SS.  Plus, other teams are looking to move him off of SS.  I don't think he is getting a 7 year deal, especially if he wants to remain at SS.  5 years/110M or 6/120M is my guess.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, rickyriolo said:

Pure salary dump by Twins.

Concur.

Would you trade Ben Rortvedt for Gary Sanchez?  I would not.

Would you trade Isiah Kiner-Falefa for Gio Urshela?  I would not.

The only missing piece to the trade is Donaldson.  Those who pooh-poohed the notion that he had negative trade value around the entire major leagues are left with defending that our front office must be the stupidest people on the planet, to pull the trigger on the above pair of bad one-for-one trades and then throw in Josh Donaldson for free simply as a sweetener.

Josh Donaldson is a valuable player when healthy.  But the health risks plus his salary make him a large-market gamble now.

The FO has opted to redeploy Donaldson's salary.  Half of it goes for Sonny Gray.  We'll see what they do with the rest of it (plus of course the considerable budget headroom they already possessed).

[diehardtwinsfan]

From the looks of it, we're a lot worse right now than we were last year. Not good for a team that supposedly has a window. I get that they aren't done... but I'd like to see the rest I guess.  They must really believe in Miranda. I get that Donaldson had trouble staying on the field, which is a big part of why he's gone, but so far this we're looking weaker. 

[Mike Sixel]

53 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

There are not many team with the money to sign Story left looking for a SS and Houston would appear unwilling to go to age 35 for a SS.  Plus, other teams are looking to move him off of SS.  I don't think he is getting a 7 year deal, especially if he wants to remain at SS.  5 years/110M or 6/120M is my guess.

Would you do either of those? I would....

[se7799]

2 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Catching takes a toll on a players legs. just look at Donaldson, who came to the majors as a catcher. I was against signing Donaldson when he was signed. This salary dump of Donaldson is Falvine's doing, because he signed Donaldson in the first place. I told you so, when Donaldson was signed. 

So, what did we lose by signing him?  Nothing like waiting 3 years for an I told you so.

[tony&rodney]

Polanco, Donaldson, and Buxton were our best players last season. We still have two of them, at least right now.

[RpR]

20 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Polanco, Donaldson, and Buxton were our best players last season. We still have two of them, at least right now.

Stop, before they get dumped too.?

 

[tony&rodney]

Just now, RpR said:

Stop, before they get dumped too.?

 

HaHa! I actually thought that right after I hit submit.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Would you do either of those? I would....

Yes and I think the twins are willing to go there.  All of the other stuff points to them having this in hand.  I think they already have a deal or they would not have moved IKF.   I don't have any inside information but that's sure the way it looks. 

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

Three ways of using newly gained payroll flexibility seem like possibilities:
1. Signing Trevor Story
2. Taking part or all of a contract that another team doesn't want in order to lower the cost of a pitcher the Twins want—just to speculate, Andrus along with Montas from Oakland, or Myers along with a starter from San Diego
3. A contract extension for someone, such as a pitcher they acquire in trade

I think more than 1 of these things can happen, although Donaldson's salary is only enough to offset one of them.

This will be interesting to watch, but it's hard not to feel like the talent and composition of the roster are worse right now than they were 24 hours ago.

[Einheri]

4 hours ago, Bradfoot said:

This trade seems to fall in line with my speculation that Gray could be traded if we are not in the mix for a playoff spot.  They can easily dump Urshela, and Sanchez for more prospects at the deadline.  Adding to it is that we removed the riskier years of Donaldson's contract as he approaches 40.  Every move so far seems like we are taking a chance on competing this year without locking us into an immediate win-now window.

 

If we fall out of the race again, we can look to unload any of Urshela, Sanchez, Gray, Kepler, Duffey, Bundy and get another influx of nearly ready prospects to help in 23 and beyond.

Which is why I think it would be a savvy move by the Twins to throw some outrageous money at either Carlos Correa or Trevor Story for one year, something like 1.5x what they're looking for… but for only one year.

Sell it to the player as chance for the player to work on their long-range contract during the year or in the next off season, which should be quite a bit more stable than this year was.

This would give the Twins
• a shortstop
• a chance to spend the money that they didn't
• more time to evaluate Lewis and Martin
• a really great trade chip at the All-Star Break if their season completely sucks