Your 2022 Twins Sleeper Rotation Arm

[Ted Schwerzler]

Last season the Minnesota Twins went through starting pitchers at an alarming rate, and it wasn't until the emergence of Bailey Ober that they found an unlikely source to stick. The numbers were all great, but the expectations never made headlines. Who follows that path in 2022?

The Twins drafted Bailey Ober in the 12th round of the 2017 Major League Baseball draft. He was taken from the College of Charleston and went to Elizabethton as a 21-year-old. After posting a 3.21 and 3.84 ERA, respectively, in each of his first two professional seasons, 2019 saw a massive leap. Compiling a 0.69 ERA across 78 2/3 inning from Rookie-ball to Double-A, Ober had announced his presence.
 
At 6’9”, it’s pretty hard not to notice Ober, and while he doesn’t reach triple-digits, that frame allows his fastball to get on hitters quickly. He had a track record of high strikeout rates with few walks in the minors. Despite not being invited to the Twins alternate site during the 2020 minor league shutdown, Ober continued to put in work. Dominating quickly at Triple-A in 2021, he earned a big-league promotion after just 7 innings.

Looking back at Ober’s track record before his promotion, there is no evidence of sustained innings. He had never pitched more than his 2019 total and had the entire 2020 season without games. What that suggests is that Minnesota would be willing to allow an opportunity for an arm they feel is ready, even if it’s not battle-tested or proven through longevity.
 
Right now, the Twins have no less than two open rotation spots. Whether they’re filled externally or not, it’s a good bet that someone will emerge and turn heads sooner than expected. Although not a 12th rounder, my bet this season is Florida State product, Cole Sands.
 
Arguably the most significant thing working against Sands at the moment is his recent inclusion to the Twins 40-man roster. Subject to the lockout, he cannot get the season going with other minor leaguers currently down in Fort Myers. However, Sands substantiated a strong 2019 and worthy draft position with an even greater step forward last season.

Following 75 innings of work at Florida State in 2018, Sands didn’t debut professionally until 2019. He posted a 2.68 ERA and made starts from Low Single-A to Double-A. A 10.0 K/9 was paired with a 1.8 BB/9 and a 1.027 WHIP. The production looked every bit the reason why he was targeted so early in the draft.
 
Getting back to professional games following the 2020 shutdown, Sands spent all of 2021 at Double-A Wichita. His 2.46 ERA solidified the strong debut and again was combined with a double-digit strikeout rate. He did allow an alarming number of walks at 3.9 BB/9, but the missed bats and lack of hard contact allowed him to keep opposing lineups at bay.
 
Sands should begin at Triple-A St. Paul this year, and he could be knocking at the Major League door quickly. While the development may not be as surprising as that of Ober, this is still a guy that’s a borderline top-20 prospect for Minnesota on most national lists. He’s not going to be an ace, but a strong contributor in the middle of a rotation exists here. Ober turned in 20 starts to the tune of a 4.19 ERA in his rookie season with Minnesota, and seeing Sands do that or better might not be a crazy thought.

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[mikelink45]

Nice speculation.  I am watching Winder and Balazovic (or I would if ST were happening).

[Doctor Gast]

Ober's paid his dues, put in the work and stayed healthy, the next Ober will do the same. Many prospects will finally get their chance this season, hopefully Sands will stay healthy and do well.

[4twinsJA]

My sleeper is Strotman. I don't' know what happened after Twins acquired him, trouble adjusting or tired arm, but looking for him to take a step forward this year.

[roger]

Wouldn't call him a sleeper, but I see Winder as being a key part of the Twins rotation...assuming there is baseball at some point.

[Nashvilletwin]

Last week I selected Sands as my choice to click on 2022. So I like this article (haha). We will see.

Having said that, I’d take four starters on essentially rookie contracts around a 4.00 ERA like Ober last year coupled with a shutdown bullpen any day of the week. That combo wins a lot of games. 

[puckstopper1]

I don't believe the article specified this and since I wanted to know, I thought I'd share (after I looked it up) that Sands was originally drafted by the Houston Astros in the 22nd round of the 2015 MLB June Amateur Draft from North Florida Christian HS (Tallahassee, FL) and then redrafted by the Minnesota Twins in the 5th round of the 2018 MLB June Amateur Draft from Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL).

[rv78]

In 2022 if we have major league baseball, my sleeper arm will be Randy Dobnak. His ability in the past to make me shut the TV off and go to bed is when I do my best sleeping.

[DocBauer]

I think Winder is more or less a given, so he doesn't qualify as a sleeper. Neither does Balazovic. But Sands is one of 2 sleepers for me, Strotman being the other.

Sands has flown under the radar a bit for reasons I don't understand. All he's done is perform and perform well since being drafted. Yes the walks were a little high in 2021, but doesn't it seem that was an issue all across baseball? Feels to me the return from the lost 2020 not only affected health, but control as well.

I will be surprised if Sands doesn't make an appearance at the ML level in 2022, even if it's to assist the pen.

Strotman is my top sleeper. He also suffered from a rise in walks last year coming back not only from rehab but the lost 2020. The rest of his numbers looked pretty good before coming to the Twins. Again, was he running out of gad?

Now, can we please just play some ball so we can actually see these kids play?

[h2oface]

It amazes me that people are counting on Baily Ober to stick. 

If we will be relying in the prospects who will be limited to less than 150 innings in this coddling world of present day baseball, and some just around 100, we will be needing a dozen sleepers.

[cHawk]

2 minutes ago, h2oface said:

It amazes me that people are counting on Baily Ober to stick. 

What is there to suggest there’s a strong chance he won’t stick? I mean he’s not going to be the ace of the staff (at least I hope not) but I don’t think it’s unfair to slot him in at one of the 3-5 spots.

[h2oface]

4 minutes ago, cHawk said:

What is there to suggest there’s a strong chance he won’t stick? I mean he’s not going to be the ace of the staff (at least I hope not) but I don’t think it’s unfair to slot him in at one of the 3-5 spots.

This years Randy Dobnak. The hitters are not MiLB hitters in the show.

[cHawk]

1 minute ago, h2oface said:

This years Randy Dobnak. The hitters are not MiLB hitters in the show.

Possibly. He did show promise at the Major League level last year (he had an ERA+ of around 100), so I think he could get better in 2022. Of course I could be wrong and we shouldn’t rely on him as one of our top starters

[old nurse]

7 hours ago, h2oface said:

This years Randy Dobnak. The hitters are not MiLB hitters in the show.

I don’t think they are going to jack Oner around like they did Dobnak. Nor is it very nice of you to project that Ober will be injured. Man, you can be such the downer dude.

[chpettit19]

12 hours ago, h2oface said:

It amazes me that people are counting on Baily Ober to stick. 

If we will be relying in the prospects who will be limited to less than 150 innings in this coddling world of present day baseball, and some just around 100, we will be needing a dozen sleepers.

12 hours ago, h2oface said:

This years Randy Dobnak. The hitters are not MiLB hitters in the show.

That's not really a reason why he won't stick. What about his pitches, performance, mechanics, etc. lead you to believe he can't get major league hitters out anymore? The hitters he faced in the show last year weren't MiLB hitters either. He faced the White Sox 5 times last year. In his 5th start against them he went 5.1 innings allowed 0 runs and won the game 1-0. So the best team in the division saw him 5 times and he was still able to slice them up his 5th time seeing them. That's at least a little sign of hope that he can be a #3-5 arm in a rotation is it not?

Against the Sox last year he gave up 4 (ML debut), 5, 0, 3, and 0 earned runs. He actually got much better as the year went on and teams got tape on him. Certainly not suggesting he's going to have a 2.5 career ERA, but I don't get why it'd amaze you that people think Ober can stick. Over his last 10 starts he gave up 1, 3, 0, 2, 0, 2, 2, 3, 4, 1 earned runs while averaging 4.9 innings per start. He had a 3.31 ERA in what was essentially an average length start in terms of innings (average AL start last year was 5.0 innings). Seems rather reasonable to expect someone who dominated the minors, improved as his rookie year went on, and dominated the best team in the division as he faced them more to be able to stick in the majors.

[TwinsDr2021]

24 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Against the Sox last year he gave up 4 (ML debut), 5, 0, 3, and 0 earned runs. He actually got much better as the year went on and teams got tape on him. Certainly not suggesting he's going to have a 2.5 career ERA, but I don't get why it'd amaze you that people think Ober can stick. Over his last 10 starts he gave up 1, 3, 0, 2, 0, 2, 2, 3, 4, 1 earned runs while averaging 4.9 innings per start. He had a 3.31 ERA in what was essentially an average length start in terms of innings (average AL start last year was 5.0 innings). Seems rather reasonable to expect someone who dominated the minors, improved as his rookie year went on, and dominated the best team in the division as he faced them more to be able to stick in the majors.

My two cents on Ober is for me personally to temper expectations. If the Twins have a have/had a similiar plan with him as last year, I don't expect him to be any worse than last year, meaning keeping his innings down but keeping his pitch count down. But if the Twins plan to extend his pitch count consistently to 80 or above, it will be hard to predict what that means for him, he could thrive or maybe he gets exposed, we don't know, we can only assume or predict. He didn't start that great (or really that terrible either) last year, seem to find his grove in July and excel in August and fall down again in September, that was making 7 5 plus innings starts and pitching roughly 75 pitches per start (for those 7 starts). Minus a couple of starts, after hitting that 80 pitch mark the next star was usually much rougher. IMO if the Twins plan to continue to push his pitch count he will be more up and down. But if they plan to use him like last year 25 or so stars, 5 or less innings, and around 65 to 75 pitches, I would expect him to have even better numbers than last year.

As for my sleeper it has to be Sands, first he is already 24 and will be given a chance before any younger prospects because they have to figure out where is fits in the Organization and because he is on the 40 man and so far has the least expectations of the pitchers on the 40 and unless things go real bad, I don't see many of the starting pitching prospects not on the 40 being added.

[chpettit19]

46 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

My two cents on Ober is for me personally to temper expectations. If the Twins have a have/had a similiar plan with him as last year, I don't expect him to be any worse than last year, meaning keeping his innings down but keeping his pitch count down. But if the Twins plan to extend his pitch count consistently to 80 or above, it will be hard to predict what that means for him, he could thrive or maybe he gets exposed, we don't know, we can only assume or predict. He didn't start that great (or really that terrible either) last year, seem to find his grove in July and excel in August and fall down again in September, that was making 7 5 plus innings starts and pitching roughly 75 pitches per start (for those 7 starts). Minus a couple of starts, after hitting that 80 pitch mark the next star was usually much rougher. IMO if the Twins plan to continue to push his pitch count he will be more up and down. But if they plan to use him like last year 25 or so stars, 5 or less innings, and around 65 to 75 pitches, I would expect him to have even better numbers than last year.

As for my sleeper it has to be Sands, first he is already 24 and will be given a chance before any younger prospects because they have to figure out where is fits in the Organization and because he is on the 40 man and so far has the least expectations of the pitchers on the 40 and unless things go real bad, I don't see many of the starting pitching prospects not on the 40 being added.

I'd expect them to use the same sort of data this year that they did last year. Tracking spin rate, release point, velo, etc. to see when he starts tiring in each start and make their decision on when to take him out based on that. I think they'll use it for all their young starters, and maybe even Bundy, Cotton, etc. I'd think their goal will be to get 32 or 33 starts out of him. The length of those starts based on the tracking of a variety of in game data points.

I'd expect him to be up and down, like any pitcher. I'm not suggesting he should be viewed as any sort of savior or stud rotation arm, but I find it overly, and unnecessarily, negative for h20 to suggest he shouldn't be viewed as someone who can stick in the majors. An up and down season with some clunker starts, but more very good starts and an ERA around 4 seems more than reasonable based on his minor league track record and his performance over 20+ starts last year. He could certainly fall apart, just like is a risk with any other player, but I didn't see anything last year to suggest he shouldn't be counted on as a #4 or 5 pitcher this year with the chance to be a #3 type in the prime of his career.

I like Sands as a sleeper pick. His walks give me a little pause, but in a bunch of 4 inning appearances I'd think he could do very well next year. It'll be a fun season (if we have one) watching young guys test themselves against the best of the best. Don't expect a world series run, but should have some fun stretches where the young guns are all dialed in for the same stretch and can provide some glimmer of hope for the future.

[h2oface]

23 hours ago, old nurse said:

I don’t think they are going to jack Oner around like they did Dobnak. Nor is it very nice of you to project that Ober will be injured. Man, you can be such the downer dude.

I just meant performance, not injury. Assume.........

Perhaps you should utilize the ingnored user option in your account settings, dude...........

I wish the best for Ober. I just don't see it progressing much better than Dobnak's progression has, All 100 or so innings. September was telling. I hope I am wrong. 

[old nurse]

2 hours ago, h2oface said:

I just meant performance, not injury. Assume.........

Perhaps you should utilize the ingnored user option in your account settings, dude...........

I wish the best for Ober. I just don't see it progressing much better than Dobnak's progression has, All 100 or so innings. September was telling. I hope I am wrong. 

One bad inning is telling of something?

[Blyleven2011]

Someday I hope we can have hope that we have studs , aces and bulldogs to talk about ,, Will petty fit that bill ....

 

For now I'll have to hope for the competitive baseball  that front office has promised us and we will find out who the real sleeper is ...

Just can't put a finger on a sleeper with minor league results 

[jimbo92107]

I like what little I just saw of Cole Sands. Do you see his body language after the pitch? Total lack of concern, like he's sitting in a rocking chair. That's a cool customer on the mound. Like he's been a pitcher since he first started playing baseball. 

Cool Sands.

[TheLeviathan]

On 3/4/2022 at 8:25 AM, chpettit19 said:

That's not really a reason why he won't stick. What about his pitches, performance, mechanics, etc. lead you to believe he can't get major league hitters out anymore? The hitters he faced in the show last year weren't MiLB hitters either. He faced the White Sox 5 times last year. In his 5th start against them he went 5.1 innings allowed 0 runs and won the game 1-0. So the best team in the division saw him 5 times and he was still able to slice them up his 5th time seeing them. That's at least a little sign of hope that he can be a #3-5 arm in a rotation is it not?

Against the Sox last year he gave up 4 (ML debut), 5, 0, 3, and 0 earned runs. He actually got much better as the year went on and teams got tape on him. Certainly not suggesting he's going to have a 2.5 career ERA, but I don't get why it'd amaze you that people think Ober can stick. Over his last 10 starts he gave up 1, 3, 0, 2, 0, 2, 2, 3, 4, 1 earned runs while averaging 4.9 innings per start. He had a 3.31 ERA in what was essentially an average length start in terms of innings (average AL start last year was 5.0 innings). Seems rather reasonable to expect someone who dominated the minors, improved as his rookie year went on, and dominated the best team in the division as he faced them more to be able to stick in the majors.

Yeah, but you analyzed it and, like, thought about it and stuff.  So, it's not fair to make an argument like this.