Twins Trading Offers Exciting Opportunity

[Ted Schwerzler]

When Derek Falvey was brought into the Twins organization, it was with a belief he would develop a pitching pipeline similar to what he did in Cleveland. While we haven’t yet seen that bear fruit, this front office has seen success on the trade market. A perfect storm post-lockout could be brewing, knowing what the organization needs, and seeing where we’re at this offseason.

The Minnesota Twins' starting rotation is in shambles at this point. Dylan Bundy is the only starter signed before the lockout, and Carlos Rodon is the only realistic upper-tier target that still seems plausible. With those parameters, it seems a good bet that the Twins turn to the trade market, a place they’ve been expected to dabble all along.
 
For Falvey, this is probably the optimal outcome. While free agency has been a malady of misses, the trade front has actually worked out well for this front office. I’m still baffled how an aging Nelson Cruz was parlayed for two legitimate arms, and that was after the Jake Odorizzi trade had already tipped the scales against the Rays for Minnesota. Throw in getting a haul for Jose Berrios when the organization had decided against extending him, and you have to be happy with the results.

Looking at the prospect rankings and, more importantly, the organizational location for Minnesota, it’s clear they need external help. The Twins farm system shows up consistently at the bottom of the teens, and outside of Jordan Balazovic, there isn’t an arm on the farm that’s a top 100 talent and ready to immediately contribute. An explanation for much of the feelings regarding the Twins system relates to the missed time the past few seasons. The depth is there, while the floor currently trumps many of the ceilings. Parlaying a few arms into one big one could be the ideal action plan.
 
Oakland has plenty of arms on the block, and stud Frankie Montas is among the best of them. Cincinnati could be a willing partner with either Sonny Gray, Luis Castillo, or Tyler Mahle. Houston might be willing to flip Odorizzi back to Minnesota. There is any number of possibilities for the front office to explore. It would be wise to assume that frameworks have been discussed before the lockout, and things should come together quickly when we get a resumption.
 
If and when Minnesota swings a deal, there should be a level of trust built from how Falvey has constructed previous swaps. There’s going to be hurt in prospect capital, especially for a top-level arm, but betting on the Twins knowing their talents and the warts they may have is an earned belief.
 
An ideal trade has both sides winning when the deal is struck, but Minnesota continuing to come out on top, in the long run, is something every fan can get on board with. Derek Falvey needs to keep stacking the positive results in that category.

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[mikelink45]

So far the pitchers we have added each year have not given me much faith in the FO.

[jorgenswest]

One wonder I have about trades is whether teams are working those now ready to announce them as an agreement is reached.

[mikelink45]

Are we all over-rating the minor league arms?  Reading TD and following the threads it seems like we have lots of good arms, but stepping outside our community it seems a little sparse.  And then there is the question - why are we all assuming Dylan Bundy can be part of a good rotation?

[Doctor Gast]

I believe practically every trade that this FO has done, they have been 1st approached. Now as you've stated that   "It would be wise to assume that frameworks have been discussed before the lockout, and things should come together quickly when we get a resumption." 

I agree that for us to have a leg up before the frenzy, we would need some framework and relationships established before the lock-out. With their history of waiting to be approached, it doesn't instill much confidence for me. Nevertheless, I thank you Ted for your article and hope I'm wrong and that they're able to pull off a Montas trade

[jimbo92107]

The only hired gun I've liked was Odo, and he's just about average. I think the Twins have at least two prospects whose floors are better than Odorizzi is today. Blaze and Canto both are better, and they are young young young young. There is a possibility to trade Duran + a top-20 position prospect for Montas (Cavaco? Sabato?), but otherwise, I reject deals with Oakland. I could see Sabato muscled up to be a 1B basher for the A's...

[twinstalker]

6 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Are we all over-rating the minor league arms?  Reading TD and following the threads it seems like we have lots of good arms, but stepping outside our community it seems a little sparse.  And then there is the question - why are we all assuming Dylan Bundy can be part of a good rotation?

There are very few "good" arms right now in the system.  Duran and Canterino should probably be rehabbing from TJS right now.  Winder's injury has the potential to be much worse (or nothing major).  Most of the other pitchers either struggled at some point or dealt with injuries.  It's ugly, but it could sort itself out...just not this year, I don't think.  Balazovic and Winder both pitching well this year in MLB would be a 95th percentile outcome.

[Whitey333]

Wow what a dismal year this may turn out to be.  If the Twins don't make any significant upgrades to their pitching staff it's likely to be 90-100 losses again.  Hope at least a couple of these great prospects turn out to be solid major league pitchers.  If not it could be a long year and long few years of rebuilding again.

[Game7-91]

Thanks Ted for raising ideas and realistic possibilities.

I am admittedly confused by the direction of this FO, or lack thereof. Declining chance to extend Berrios, trading him for 2 prospects/suspects, no FA signings b4 lockout when E. Rodriguez was willing to take 5/77-a contract seemingly in Twins wheelhouse-but no apparent attempt to sign him.....now looking to trade prospects to obtain a SP that will presumably be Berrios- esque quality.

It seems to me so circular. Whats the point of adding 2 prospects, only to trade 2 or more 6 months later for a guy to replace Berrios? Musical chairs. Throwing darts at the prospect board and hoping one is the bullseye? But apparently if that prospect develops to Berrios, or Rodriquez, level, Twins wont sign him long-term.

I just dont understand the long game. Feels like Twins are trying to thread a very fine needle here to maximize value b4 having to pay market rate, or length, to maintain it. The prospect dart board never ends.

[RJA]

Good article, Ted.  Lots of fodder for conversation.  I am higher on the Twins minor league pitchers than you are as I don't put a lot of stock in top 100 ratings.  I have seen a number of them pitch, and the stuff is real, including secondary pitches.  Health is a concern but that is a problem throughout baseball, and something you can't control.  One thing you can control is filling the pitching pipeline with arms that have potential to pitch in the bigs.  On that score, the Twins are doing well in my humble opinion.

I agree that that the front office sat on its hands last fall and watched while a number of viable free agent pitchers came off the board.  IF they had signed a significant free agent, then trading for a Montas or Castillo would make some sense.  Add Pineda to Ryan and Ober and you have a good rotation,  But, if you are truly building for the future, I am not sure adding one pitcher through a trade for two years (the Twins didn't extend Berrios so why do we think they would extend Montas or Castillo) makes any sense.  You are simply making a terrible rotation into a poor rotation pending the arrival of some of the youngsters.  

I am not sure what the game plan is for this FO either.  If they don't plan to seriously compete this year, I wouldn't make a trade unless it was for a pitcher with at least 3 years of control left.  I would see if Ryan and Ober continue to show promise, take a look at the young arms, and fill in with Pineda and others on one year contracts.  If I thought Story has 3-4 good years left, I would look at adding him to solve the other significant hole in the roster.  Then, if the young pitchers looked like they were the real deal, I would aggressively work the trade market and look for rotation help for next year.  The free agent group of pitchers next year is limited, but there are several that would be attractive additions as well.  

I simply don't understand the inaction this fall.  Let's just hope that they have a plan to get us back in the playoffs, if not this year then in 2023.

[rv78]

I am in the same house as Game7-91. Why trade a Berrios for prospects if you are going to trade prospects for a different Berrios type pitcher in return? If it is all about team control for another year or two then all you are doing is setting yourself up for the same problem over and over. The only answer I can come up with is the main thing this organization is known for.... cheap, cheap, cheap. Maybe it's time for them to change their name from the Twins to the Chicks.

[chpettit19]

4 hours ago, Game7-91 said:

Thanks Ted for raising ideas and realistic possibilities.

I am admittedly confused by the direction of this FO, or lack thereof. Declining chance to extend Berrios, trading him for 2 prospects/suspects, no FA signings b4 lockout when E. Rodriguez was willing to take 5/77-a contract seemingly in Twins wheelhouse-but no apparent attempt to sign him.....now looking to trade prospects to obtain a SP that will presumably be Berrios- esque quality.

It seems to me so circular. Whats the point of adding 2 prospects, only to trade 2 or more 6 months later for a guy to replace Berrios? Musical chairs. Throwing darts at the prospect board and hoping one is the bullseye? But apparently if that prospect develops to Berrios, or Rodriquez, level, Twins wont sign him long-term.

I just dont understand the long game. Feels like Twins are trying to thread a very fine needle here to maximize value b4 having to pay market rate, or length, to maintain it. The prospect dart board never ends.

Are we sure that bolded part is correct? From what I've seen the speculation that they're trying to trade prospects to acquire Berrios-esque pitching is just fans saying that's what they'd have to do to rebuild the rotation for 2022. There's news reports that they'd had conversations with teams about trades prior to the lockout and many talking heads also suggesting that's what's needed, but I haven't seen anything saying the Twins were doing anything more than seeing what the "big name" trade targets would cost.

I don't think their plan is to trade for any of the As or Reds guys that people are talking about. I don't think they have any intention of trading for anyone with 1 or 2 years of control left. Much more likely it'd be a Maeda type deal for a guy with much more control if they're giving up a top 15 prospect or an Odo deal where they take a lesser name pitcher for a top 30 type prospect and hope they can turn him into more than he currently is. I will be absolutely shocked, and similarly confused, if they go after any As or Reds guys people are talking about.

To me the strategy seems to clearly be building from within for the pitching. They've developed their pipeline to the point where guys are starting to be ready to make their ML debuts. I can't imagine they're then going to turn and blow that up for someone with no real control. Unless Pohlad has gone completely out of character and threatened their jobs if they don't make the playoffs this year. All the trade talk just seems to me to be fans hoping and dreaming on bigger name pitchers as that's what fits their definition of the FO trying to compete. I don't think the FO has the same idea of what trying to compete looks like when it comes to building their starting staff this year.

[Game7-91]

22 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't think their plan is to trade for any of the As or Reds guys that people are talking about. I don't think they have any intention of trading for anyone with 1 or 2 years of control left. Much more likely it'd be a Maeda type deal for a guy with much more control if they're giving up a top 15 prospect or an Odo deal where they take a lesser name pitcher for a top 30 type prospect and hope they can turn him into more than he currently is. I will be absolutely shocked, and similarly confused, if they go after any As or Reds guys people are talking about.

Great points, and totally agree. If they could deal for Maeda-like contract, that's more consistent. But those contracts are rare, who else is similiar in production and contract, and potentially available? More likely they look for another Odo-type deal as you thought, maybe just Odo himsekf part 2, What is clear enough is that it needs to be quality production, or projectible quality, at team-friendly dollars abd length. I think your statement abt A's and Reds is right. If they trade, its somewhere else. 

[Minny505]

16 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

One wonder I have about trades is whether teams are working those now ready to announce them as an agreement is reached.

I have heard insiders like Ben Clemons and Eno Sarris say this is happening, along with negotiations with the agents of FAs.

They have stated that dozens of deals have already been agreed to, some with contingencies, and that they are all going to be announced within about 48 hours of a CBA being inked.

Of course no specific deals are going to be leaked. That would be career suicide for any reporter who did the leaking.

[TwinsDr2021]

IMO the talk of trades is fun and something to talk about during the off-season and lockout.

But I don't see it happening, Imagine if Ober and Ryan do this year just what they did last year with a few more innings. If Winder or Balazovic step up to be a major league starter, and Maeda comes back. You have 4 starters for 2023, and that isn't including if one of Winder or Balazovic were decent but not quite ready. 

Ages will be start of the 23 season.

They still have a 25 year old Canterino, 25 year old Duran, a 22 year old SWR. a 25 year old Varland, a 25 year old Sands, 22 year old Hajjar, a 24 year old Enlow, and a 26 year old Strotman all looking for spots (in 23). Sure a couple will end up in the pen, but in that list is 6 of the 10 ten prospects, a high paid 3rd round pick, and last years 2nd round pick.

Sure maybe Ober or Ryan goes backwards and ends up in the pen, or both Winder and Balazovic don't turn out, but that scenario is should get FO fired.

So unless this FO is willing to trade a couple of the guys above in the trades for a veteran pitcher, it makes no sense to me to continue to fill up the 40 man with guys on the edge but not willing to put them in.

IMO, whatever job they were thinking Jax could do, you give it to Strotman straight away, if he fails he can go to the minors and work on being a shut down bullpen guy, if he succeeds great continue to give him more opportunities. They should plan on giving the 5th starter to whoever deserves it between Sands, Winder and Balazovic and tell the other to prove them wrong in AAA and they will be up. Duran should start the season in the majors, they can baby his injury there, why waste any more 100mph pitches in AAA. You have the AAA rotation be two of Winder/Balazovic/Sands, Canterino, Varland and Vallimont.

[Jacksson]

The Dylan Bundy signing is just a stepping stone to more signings.  Dylan Bundy gets them AL BUNDY who gets them the inside track on SVEN HUNKSTROM.  If there is money remaining, BOB ROONEY is a definite possibility.

[jorgenswest]

I don’t see making a trade for Montas as musical chairs. The years of control are not the same and I want that 2023 season. If would trade Berrios’ last two months if 2021 for Montas’ full 2023 season.

[mnfireman]

The timetable on most of the teams prospects has been pushed back two years, one for Covid and one for all the injuries incurred because of the year off. I still believe that more of these prospects will pan out than won't, but that's me.  

[cHawk]

9 hours ago, rv78 said:

Maybe it's time for them to change their name from the Twins to the Chicks.

[bean5302]

Quote

Looking at the prospect rankings and, more importantly, the organizational location for Minnesota, it’s clear they need external help. The Twins farm system shows up consistently at the bottom of the teens, and outside of Jordan Balazovic, there isn’t an arm on the farm that’s a top 100 talent and ready to immediately contribute.

Top 100 includes high ceiling and high floor guys and there's little difference between a player ranked 100 or 200. It's all subjective. Winder and Balazovic are both potential mid-rotation guys, maybe even higher than that. 

The Twins don't even know what they have to know what they need, but one this is for certain... if there isn't an utterly massive turnover on the roster or a bunch of players taking huge steps forward, the Twins don't stand a snowballs chance in hell of competing against what look like very good Tigers and White Sox teams this year. This isn't 2019 where everybody else in the entire division was hot garbage in the sun.

Falvey was brought in to develop the minors and especially pitchers. Gutting a farm system for some medicore pitchers? Anybody can do that. Considering how little the Twins know about what they have on either side of the plate, the suggestion to gut the farm system's pitching in the hopes a couple mediocre to good arms can save the day seems more like flailing around without direction to me. If that's what Falvey brings, I'd rather somebody bring him a pink slip today.