Who goes when making room for prospects on the 26-man?

[mikelink45]

We talk about Miranda and Martin and Lewis as possible promotions.  Celestino is a possible fourth OF and we have Larnach ready to rise again, I hope.  But that means others must go.

I know there have been discussions about trading Arraez, Garver, Kepler and Sano, but if they do not go, who does?

It would seem that Rooker lacks the skills, other than power bat, so is he first cut?  Does he have some value for NL - DH or does every team have a Rooker?  
Gordon has no position and might be redundant although he is the one player who could fill in at SS to give whoever our SS is a rest.  But is that enough value?

What is the pecking order?  Ranking the Twins batters on the forty man roster from top to bottom it would seem that we might have:

1. Buxton
2. Polanco
3. Kiriloff
4. Miranda
5. Jeffers
6. Garver
7. Donaldson
8. Arraez
9. Lewis
10. Larnach
11. Kepler
12. Celestino
13. Sano
14. Rortvedt
15. Gordon
16. Rooker

The rest are pitchers and somewhere we have to fit in a short stop.  What do you think?  I say the cuts would come from the bottom up.   For clarity - I am looking at the players who would be eliminated from the 40 when we sign a SS or any other player - position or pitcher.  Or as expected Martin makes his debut. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

27 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

It would seem that Rooker lacks the skills, other than power bat, so is he first cut?  Does he have some value for NL - DH or does every team have a Rooker? 

This is an interesting point, one I hadn't really considered. The trade value on Rooker is very low but it might not be nothing, given the addition of the DH in the NL. There could be an NL team willing to give up a C- prospect in the low minors and carry Rooker on the roster as a part-time DH.

[TwinsDr2021]

3 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

We talk about Miranda and Martin and Lewis as possible promotions.  Celestino is a possible fourth OF and we have Larnach ready to rise again, I hope.  But that means others must go.

I know there have been discussions about trading Arraez, Garver, Kepler and Sano, but if they do not go, who does?

It would seem that Rooker lacks the skills, other than power bat, so is he first cut?  Does he have some value for NL - DH or does every team have a Rooker?  
Gordon has no position and might be redundant although he is the one player who could fill in at SS to give whoever our SS is a rest.  But is that enough value?

What is the pecking order?  Ranking the Twins batters on the forty man roster from top to bottom it would seem that we might have:

1. Buxton
2. Polanco
3. Kiriloff
4. Martin
5. Miranda
6. Jeffers
7. Garver
8. Donaldson
9. Arraez
10. Lewis
11. Larnach
12. Kepler
13. Celestino
14. Sano
15. Rortvedt
16. Gordon
17. Rooker

The rest are pitchers and somewhere we have to fit in a short stop.  What do you think?  I say the cuts would come from the bottom up. 

Rooker and Gordon seem like the only two that could be cut. Carrying 3 catchers seem fine, and if somebody gets hurt you are adding another anyway. Celestino and Larnach are the unknowns and probably could return something young and decent. Trading Sano or Kepler, probably make the team worse in the short-term unless all the others play well. Arraez seems like the best trade piece but also the best plan B and C for some other positions.

With that being said it looks like Martin could be this years Miranda, should be called up but probably won't.

[Brock Beauchamp]

4 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I don't believe Martin is on the 40?

Martin is already on the 40-man.

[RpR]

Larnach is no better than Rooker and slower afoot.

[DocBauer]

I think it depends, are we talking GONE from the Twins entirely, or are we just talking not on the opening day roster?

If we're talking opening day roster, Rortvedt, Martin, and one of Celestino/Rooker takes you down to 14 easily. From there it's about health more than anything. Miranda could start at St Paul simply to play daily until the rest of the roster shakes out.

If we're talking GONE from the Twins, Rooker is probably #1, and becomes rather redundant with the RH bat of Miranda, and better defense regardless where he plays. After that, honestly, I couldn't make a prediction. A trade of Arraez or one of the catchers would make the most sense, but not sure that happens at this time. Garver will eventually slow down being over 30, but seems to have at least a couple really good years left. Arraez, no matter how good he is, may be pushed out of the lineup by Martin and off the roster by Steer or Julian in another year or so.

[Brandon]

yay for options.  we don't have to move anyone at this time.  though over time some will get moved, but who that should be doesn't need to be decided today,

 

Rooker could end up being a monster at bat, and if Sano and Donaldson get traded or their contracts end we may want to have Rooker around unless or until other power options show up or he hits and makes the point moot.  I think Sano will break out with 35-40 HRs and an .850+OPS which is fine for a DH / part time 1B.  Gordon is what he is at this point.  for us Gordon is the last man on the position player side of the roster who can play IF and OF and has speed and gap power.  He could be a platoon or get more time on another roster to a degree but he does have value with us.  

[Cap'n Piranha]

13 minutes ago, RpR said:

Larnach is no better than Rooker and slower afoot.

Rooker for his career has a 96 wRC+ and -0.1 WAR.  He strikes out 32.9% of the time while walking 7% of the time, and makes under 37% hard contact with a 30.9% CSW rate and a 32.9% chase rate.  He is also already 27.

Larnach for his career has a 89 wRC+ and 0.2 WAR.  He strikes out 34.6% of the time, but walks 10.3% of the time, and makes under 34% hard contact with a 34.4% CSW rate and a 27.8% chase rate.  He turns 25 in 3 days.

Larnach's sprint speed of 26.5 ft/sec was faster than Rooker in 2020, but slower than Rooker in 2021.  If the Twins were trying to win a WS in 2022, I'd say maybe keep Rooker, but as that is not the case, Larnach is definitely a better option than Rooker moving forward.

[RpR]

2 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Rooker for his career has a 96 wRC+ and -0.1 WAR.  He strikes out 32.9% of the time while walking 7% of the time, and makes under 37% hard contact with a 30.9% CSW rate and a 32.9% chase rate.  He is also already 27.

Larnach for his career has a 89 wRC+ and 0.2 WAR.  He strikes out 34.6% of the time, but walks 10.3% of the time, and makes under 34% hard contact with a 34.4% CSW rate and a 27.8% chase rate.  He turns 25 in 3 days.

Larnach's sprint speed of 26.5 ft/sec was faster than Rooker in 2020, but slower than Rooker in 2021.  If the Twins were trying to win a WS in 2022, I'd say maybe keep Rooker, but as that is not the case, Larnach is definitely a better option than Rooker moving forward.

They both stunk last year, if the Twins see them for the future, the Twins will continue to stink like last year.

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, RpR said:

They both stunk last year, if the Twins see them for the future, the Twins will continue to stink like last year.

So because they both struggled in their rookie year they have no future value? That's the boldest of bold takes right there.

Mike Trout had an 89 OPS+ his rookie year. Probably should've cut that guy, huh?

[Cap'n Piranha]

I personally would see what I could get for Sano from an NL team who wants a DH+ with upside potential, and no commitment beyond this year if he doesn't improve.  I would then make Garver a hybrid 1B/DH who could also catch 1x a week/as needed.  Your 13 position players are therefore--

• C--Jeffers
• C--Rortvedt
• C/1B/DH--Garver
• 1B/LF--Kiriloff
• 2B--Polanco
• 2B/3B/DH--Arraez
• SS--Yet to be signed FA
• 3B/DH--Donaldson
• 3B/DH--Miranda
• LF/DH--Larnach
• CF--Buxton
• RF/CF--Kepler
• UTIL--Gordon

Martin, Lewis, and Celestino can come up when/if they show they're ready or injuries make it a necessity.  Most guys would play 4-6 times a week if everyone is healthy, so that increases if there are any injuries.

[chpettit19]

What is the question we're asking here? Who gets traded? Who doesn't start the year on the big league roster? I don't think anyone on this list should get traded or removed from the 40-man before the season starts. But if someone is it's likely Rooker. 

Opening day roster:
C- Garver
1B- Sano
2B- Polanco
3B- JD
SS- FA (Story, please)
LF- Kirilloff
CF- Buxton
RF- Kepler
DH- Arraez
Bench:
Util- Gordon
OF- Rooker
C- Jeffers
Veteran filler added to 40-man after Maeda and Enlow put on 60-day.

[mikelink45]

1 hour ago, DocBauer said:

I think it depends, are we talking GONE from the Twins entirely, or are we just talking not on the opening day roster?

If we're talking opening day roster, Rortvedt, Martin, and one of Celestino/Rooker takes you down to 14 easily. From there it's about health more than anything. Miranda could start at St Paul simply to play daily until the rest of the roster shakes out.

If we're talking GONE from the Twins, Rooker is probably #1, and becomes rather redundant with the RH bat of Miranda, and better defense regardless where he plays. After that, honestly, I couldn't make a prediction. A trade of Arraez or one of the catchers would make the most sense, but not sure that happens at this time. Garver will eventually slow down being over 30, but seems to have at least a couple really good years left. Arraez, no matter how good he is, may be pushed out of the lineup by Martin and off the roster by Steer or Julian in another year or so.

Yes - I mean gone completely.  Basically making room for the next SS or any other move the team makes. 

[RpR]

55 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

So because they both struggled in their rookie year they have no future value? That's the boldest of bold takes right there.

Mike Trout had an 89 OPS+ his rookie year. Probably should've cut that guy, huh?

Trout  in his rookie year had 5 hr and 30 strike-outs in 40 games; double that number of games to equal Larnach and you get 10 hr and 60 strike-outs.

There is no analogy.

[chpettit19]

19 hours ago, RpR said:

Trout  in his rookie year had 5 hr and 30 strike-outs in 40 games; double that number of games to equal Larnach and you get 10 hr and 60 strike-outs.

There is no analogy.

And Larnach had 31 BBs to Trout's 9. They had the exact same OPS. The point isn't that Larnach has any chance to be the hitter Trout is, but that you wrote 2 guys off because of rookie year struggles. You literally said Larnach has no future value because he had a bad first 79 games. That's an incredibly bold take.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't think the Twins would miss Rooker being gone. They have plenty of other options that do more things than him. But, I'm biased, never liked that pick at all. 

As for Sano, I am still a believer, but he might not have a spot on the next good Twins' team....but his current value is too low compared to his upside, so I keep him.

[Brock Beauchamp]

26 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

As for Sano, I am still a believer, but he might not have a spot on the next good Twins' team....but his current value is too low compared to his upside, so I keep him.

This is about where I land on Sano as well. 

[Danchat]

2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Martin is already on the 40-man.

Martin is not on the 40 man, as he does not need to be protected until December 2023. He was drafted in 2020, so there’s no need to have him on the 40 man at this moment.

[Doctor Gast]

The main idea of trading is filling our holes, the biggest hole is a frontline SP. Some one who is the best trading piece is someone who is overrated (some one who has no upside in value and most certainly will fall and a lot), Arraez fits this criteria. He's not needed on the field and has one of the highest trade return on the team IMO he should be our #1 trade piece. Rooker is #2 he doesn't have much trade value, I don't see him in the future having much uptick he could be used.

If we trade Arraez , we would need Gordon. Celestino has little trade value yet he has upside and could be valuable. IMO Rodtvedt will be our primiere catcher of the future, Garver is our present established catcher. So that leaves Jeffers, who has the most trading value, is IMO our best catching trade piece.

Donaldson has a very negative trading value and he's still valuable. Sano' is negative and he has some upside. I'd like to see what Sano' and Kepler can do this spring, I'm hopeful. Kepler has some trading value so if there's a sweet deal, I'd bite.

2nd reason to trade is to help better manage our 40 man roster. Vallimont is on the 40 man, although I'd like to see what he really has, he is expendable for the right deal. Repeat our main need is frontline pitching, this would include multiple players in the trade. Ideally we need to find a trade partner who would need Arraez, a higher prospect (maybe Larnach at least) and a lesser prospect.

[DJL44]

I'm pretty sure they won't miss Nick Gordon if they sign Trevor Story. Gordon probably passes through waivers unclaimed.

[Brock Beauchamp]

26 minutes ago, Danchat said:

Martin is not on the 40 man, as he does not need to be protected until December 2023. He was drafted in 2020, so there’s no need to have him on the 40 man at this moment.

Thanks for the correction, I was recently building some prospect information and someone gave me incorrect data. I'll fix that now.

[Nashvilletwin]

I’ll take a crack at the opening day roster of the 13 position players whom I think the FO and coaching staff would prefer:

C1: Garver

C2: Jeffers

1B: Kiriloff

2B: Polanco

SS: Story

3B: Donaldson

LF: Larnach

CF: Buxton

RF: Kepler

DH: Sano

Utility 1: Arraez (2B, 3B, LF)

Utility 2: Gordon (2B, SS, OF)

Utility 3: Celestino (OF) 

Miranda is the first call up when anyone other than a catcher is injured and could be the everyday 3B if JD is moved by the deadline. Gordon is the most expendable once Miranda is called up and whoever was injured returns to the lineup. Rortvedt gets called up when inevitably Garver or Jeffer goes down.  Larnach is the most questionable starter (outside of Story lol). 
 

[Dman]

Some really good analysis on this board.  I too think Rooker is the most expendable but he has such a SSS it seems way too early to essentially give him away.  His Defense has not been good Larnach is Younger and it feels like he will end up the better player of the two but who knows at this point.  Still unless forced I would hang onto him and try to get a clearer picture of what he can do at the plate.

I think Gordon is next and only because the Twins have Martin in the wings and his bat looks better than Gordon and his eye at the plate is definitely better than Gordon so at some point he looks redundant to me.  The Twins don't have to add Martin and he has plenty of things to work on yet so I doubt we see Martin anytime soon.  Maybe later this year if he is lighting it up and the defense looks good.

That is it though for position players for me.  I think you have Rortvedt too low as he appears to be elite defensively and not someone they would want to let go of.  He has a chance to improve his bat as well and he is still pretty young but he likely is pretty much who he is at the plate at this point.  Hopefully he will grow into more power over time as well.  I don't see the Twins moving him at all as I don't think they have a better defensive catcher in the system.

Celestino is the only centerfield prospect they have that is even close so they need to keep him.  Unless of course you see Martin or Lewis as backup centerfielders.  

If trading yes I still think Arraez makes sense to trade but I don't see him as a fit for many teams so that might be easier said than done.  Kepler too, could be a trade option but until we have another guy to play right field it doesn't make sense to trade him at this time.  If it is true that he has been working on his bat more this offseason he still could be a breakout candidate as well.

If Sano can OPS around 850 it is going to be hard to live without his bat but if he slides down to 750 or so then it makes more sense to go with someone else who can actually play a position in the field instead of just DH for what he will be making.  It is a make or break year for Sano and even if he does well they still might trade him depending on the return.

Personally I think the Twins stand pat on the position player side for this year. If anyone gets bumped it will be on the pitching side IMO.  The 40 man is going to be tight at least to start once they can open up spots for the injured Maeda and Enlow they should have some breathing room.  Not much different than everyone else but that is my take.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Thanks for the correction, I was recently building some prospect information and someone gave me incorrect data. I'll fix that now.

Roster Resource on Fangraphs is your friend.....

[Brock Beauchamp]

13 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Roster Resource on Fangraphs is your friend.....

Hey, I’m not the data guy. I don’t care what the data says, I just make it work. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

The main idea of trading is filling our holes, the biggest hole is a frontline SP. Some one who is the best trading piece is someone who is overrated (some one who has no upside in value and most certainly will fall and a lot), Arraez fits this criteria. He's not needed on the field and has one of the highest trade return on the team IMO he should be our #1 trade piece. Rooker is #2 he doesn't have much trade value, I don't see him in the future having much uptick he could be used.

If we trade Arraez , we would need Gordon. Celestino has little trade value yet he has upside and could be valuable. IMO Rodtvedt will be our primiere catcher of the future, Garver is our present established catcher. So that leaves Jeffers, IMO our best catching trade piece.

Donaldson has a very negative trading value and he's still valuable. Sano' is negative and he has some upside. I'd like to see what Sano' and Kepler can do this spring, I'm hopeful. Kepler has some trading value so if there's a sweet deal, I'd bite.

2nd reason to trade is to help better manage our 40 man roster. Vallimont is on the 40 man, although I'd like to see what he really has, he is expendable for the right deal. Repeat our main need is frontline pitching, this would include multiple players in the trade. Ideally we need to find a trade partner who would need Arraez, a higher prospect (maybe Larnach at least) and a lesser prospect.

Good diagnosis Doc. Good treatment plan.  This will help heal the ailing Twins from their malaise. 

[Rosterman]

Two questions in spring training offensively. Donaldson and Kirilloff. Can Kirilloff play first base, or does he start in left field, or does he go back to the minors. Then you carry three catchers, as Garver and Sano can both DH.

The health of Josh Donaldson. Is he your regular third baseman?

Yes, Rooker is on the bubble, but the Twins need a left-fielder. Spring training is his to get a chance at the job or lose it.

All the "prospects" could basically go back to St. Paul: Lewis, Miranda, Larnach, Celestino, Rortvedt.

The Twins currently have two roster spots, and two more on the 40-man once the season styarts. I hate to say, but I think Beckham will be given every chance to be the starting shortstop. 

No need to go big on a shortstop until they figure out Martin & Lewis. And what is available for money (or trade) in the starting pitching market.

Once the lockout ends, it will be hell...I'm sure. Every free-agent needs to sign as fast as possible to get proper training and play time. Players are going to love reporting to the A's training camp, only to be told they are going elsewhere 2-3 days later. Will "prospects" really get much play or will they immediately be shuffled to the minor league camps for getting in shape and opening the minor league season on time, with current minor league playes coming across the field as necessary fill-ins?

My fear, players on the major league rosters are going to end up hurt coming out of a shorter spring training.

[DocBauer]

4 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Yes - I mean gone completely.  Basically making room for the next SS or any other move the team makes. 

OK. And BTW, this a really interesting conversation.

The 40 man stands at 38 players currently. So even if/when the Twins sign/trade for a SS and SP, they can add 2 without having to lose anyone. And then, of course, they free up 2 additional spots with Maeda and Enlow going to the 60 day IL once things get rolling to keep the roster a bit more flexible in regard to potential promotions to the roster.

Can someone clarify when the 60 day IL moves can take place? I believe they can't make those moves until the initial 26 man roster is set to begin the season?

Assuming, for a moment, that any trades the team might make WOULDN'T include any players on the current 40 man, that's when you get in to a crunch. Naturally, if a player or two ON the 40 man were to be dealt, then you immediately create additional openings.

The problem is who do you or the Twins feel comfortable moving at this time? As I stated earlier, Rooker would seem to be the most obvious choice. But a quality milb track record, a good looking initial SSS in 2020 shouldn't make him easily dismissanle despite a disappointing 2021. There is a hole in LF and an opportunity for him to claim at least a portion of that spot. This changes somewhat if Larnach is suddenly ready. But you can't bank on that. He might need a little more time. So then AK becomes a viable option for LF instead of just sliding him in to at least a semi-permanent 1B role. Which also means Sano has that much greater value as a 1B as well as a DH. Arraez has real trade value, and may be an ideal MONEYBALL option as part of  a deal with Oakland. But he brings a skill set with the Twins that nobody else is ready to duplicate at this time. And IMO, he should be in the lineup almost daily at 1 of 3 spots, or DH, to bat leadoff and set the table. (Looking at you Rocco). Garver should have at least a couple more quality years in front of him, Jeffers might be even better, overall, but is still developing. I think Rortvedt has a chance to be excellent as a #2, but could really use a little more time to develop his bat. (Additional power WILL COME). He's been promoted pretty aggressively due to need and his defense.

So right now, all of this in flux, I personally don't feel very good about dealing/removing anyone from the player side of things. That could change dramatically by 2023 or even mid-season 2022. 

I hate to say it as I've been rooting for the kid for some time now, and he might yet find a role, but Thorpe might be one of the first "subtractions" to open up a roster spot.

The problem you have when looking at ANY potential additions is that you'd like to see 4 brought on board. 2 SP, SS, and a quality RP option. And while some believe the 40 man has more than a few easily replaceable opportunities, I disagree. The current roster is filled with quality veterans, a large group of young ready or nearly ready, and a few "not quite sure" but sure don't want to give away for nothing possibilities. Rooker, Thorpe and a hopefully healthy Stashak come to mind. Garza might fit in this category as well, but he looked pretty good in a Twins uniform last year.

And while I know some will disagree with me, I'd hate to not give Thorpe one last look. Could he be the next Thielbar? Would he clear waivers or be claimed? A healthy Stashak is not a BLOW THEM AWAY, bullpen arm. But he's flashed when healthy over a couple seasons. And I've already mentioned Rooker. 

I'm not anxious to remove any of these guys today. And I'm not saying any of these guys will necessarily come back to haunt. Just saying I don't think they are necessarily "fodder" to be easily dumped. And I'd love to have a ST and at least part of a season in 2022 to see what they do and see if they offer any real promise. 

But simple, logical examination would indicate that if no-one on the 40 man were included in trades, Rooker, Thorpe, Stashak and maybe Garza would be the top 4 to simply remove to make room. Money says all 4 would be picked up by someone.

[DocBauer]

49 minutes ago, Rosterman said:

Two questions in spring training offensively. Donaldson and Kirilloff. Can Kirilloff play first base, or does he start in left field, or does he go back to the minors. Then you carry three catchers, as Garver and Sano can both DH.

 

The health of Josh Donaldson. Is he your regular third baseman?

 

Yes, Rooker is on the bubble, but the Twins need a left-fielder. Spring training is his to get a chance at the job or lose it.

 

All the "prospects" could basically go back to St. Paul: Lewis, Miranda, Larnach, Celestino, Rortvedt.

 

The Twins currently have two roster spots, and two more on the 40-man once the season styarts. I hate to say, but I think Beckham will be given every chance to be the starting shortstop. 

 

No need to go big on a shortstop until they figure out Martin & Lewis. And what is available for money (or trade) in the starting pitching market.

 

Once the lockout ends, it will be hell...I'm sure. Every free-agent needs to sign as fast as possible to get proper training and play time. Players are going to love reporting to the A's training camp, only to be told they are going elsewhere 2-3 days later. Will "prospects" really get much play or will they immediately be shuffled to the minor league camps for getting in shape and opening the minor league season on time, with current minor league playes coming across the field as necessary fill-ins?

 

My fear, players on the major league rosters are going to end up hurt coming out of a shorter spring training.

Just wanted to comment on a few things you brought up.

1] A healthy Donaldson is absolutely the primary 3B. But I believe he will DH on occasion to keep him fresh and in the lineup. He will share DH with Sano and Arraez. Of course, cross your fingers, but if the injury bug bites Donaldson again, things change.

2] Rooker is absolutely on a bubble right now. But even if he has figured stuff out and has a good ST, he may end up sharing LF with Arraez at times, and....

3] Kirilloff. If nobody lays claim to being the full time LF. AK will split his time at 1B and LF. From what little I've seen him, AK is just fine as an OF. But he just looks so natural at 1B that I think that is his ultimate position. And there's nothing wrong with that! Having a good hitter at 1B who is excellent defensively at the position is underrated. But his "permanent" move to 1B might not be until the latter half of 2022 or '23. By then I think LF will be in good hands.

4] I agree on not going big on a SS. If the Twins surprise the hell out of us and make a Story move, I will celebrate and HOPE his good glove and questionable bat away from Coors Field is actually worth $20+M. But for various reasons,  I don't see it happening. SS will be a trade or FA signing. 

Martin, I'd keep him at SS as long as I could in case a light comes on and he suddenly feels natural there. I believe the FO still believes in Lewis and will look for a short term option there.

5] Agree there will be "hell" once this damned lockout eventually ends. There will be rapid fire movement. But I can almost guarantee the Twins, and all teams, have at least half their plans and moves already in place. They've been working behind the scenes before the lockout and probably even during, just getting ready. Biggest question might be if there are any surprises to be sprung.

[tony&rodney]

We are all getting ahead of ourselves here. Like everyone else, I wonder what the Twins roster will look like in 2022, but the CBA is not yet resolved. The team will likely make some moves in the few weeks before rosters are set. These could and should include both signings and a few trades. The offseason has been very frustrating for me as a baseball fan but I'm going to assume that baseball will be played again. The main item right now is a resolution to the lockout.