The Twins Rotation Isn’t That Far From Fixing

[Thiéres Rabelo]

The upcoming MLB season – whenever it happens – is likely not one in which the Twins will be contenders. But that doesn’t mean they are destined to be terrible. Here’s how Minnesota can fix their rotation and have a competitive team in 2022.

What do they have so far?
The Twins ended the 2021 season with a depleted starting rotation, especially after the José Berríos trade and the Kenta Maeda season-ending injury. One can argue that it was depleted since the beginning of the season, with J.A. Happ and Matt Shoemaker being part of it. But from such a dark year on the mound, two seemingly good arms emerged from the minors.

Bailey Ober had his ups and downs but, overall, he had a very solid rookie campaign. His most impressive stretch of the season might have been the ten starts in July and August, in which he posted a 3.06 ERA, a 3.87 FIP, with 51 strikeouts and only 11 walks. With less than a hundred innings pitched on the major league level so far, you might argue that he isn’t a very reliable option just yet, but his first impression was not bad at all.

Joe Ryan joined the organization in mid-July as part of the Nelson Cruz trade. After a couple of solid starts for St. Paul in August, he got called up in September, making his big league debut, and he probably couldn’t have asked for a better one. In his second start, he carried a perfect game into the seventh inning, on his way to a seven-inning shutout on only 85 pitches.

Over his first four starts, Ryan maintained a very impressive 2.45 ERA and 2.49 FIP, keeping opposing batters to a .133 batting average. He struck out batters 25 times while walking them only three times. In his final start of the season, he gave up six earned runs against Detroit, spoiling his final numbers, but not the optimism around him going forward.

To quote the great Do-Hyoung Park, from MLB.com, if all had gone according to plan for the Twins this season, they probably wouldn’t have discovered these two exciting, young arms.

The third pitcher set to start the season on the Twins rotation is Dylan Bundy, whom Minnesota signed shortly before the league went into lockout. His career numbers aren’t impressive, and in 2021, he was moved to the Angels bullpen after struggling for the first half of the season. He did get back to the rotation in early August and closed out the season with a 3.31 ERA in the final four starts.

In the shortened season of 2020, his first year with the Angels, Bundy had his best season in the majors, finishing ninth in the AL Cy Young Award voting after posting 3.29 ERA, 2.95 FIP, 138 ERA+, with 9.9 strikeouts per nine and only 2.3 walks per nine. Did Wes Johnson see anything in Bundy that can be tweaked into a 2020 version of him?

How can they realistically fill the remaining gaps?
Suppose you consider the aforementioned trio good enough to fill the bottom part of the rotation. In that case, the Twins can very well build a competitive group of starters by making only two additions. Here’s how I would go about filling the two remaining rotation spots.

My favorite trade target is Frankie Montas. The A’s are believed to be on the verge of resetting, thus making their veteran starters available for trades. The Dominican righty is coming off a career year, having started 32 games for Oakland and accumulated 3.7 bWAR, both career-best marks for him. Over 187 innings of work in 2021, he was able to maintain a 3.37 ERA and 3.37 FIP, striking out 10.0 batters per nine and walking 2.7 per nine.

Such numbers earned him a sixth-place finish in the AL Cy Young Award last season, and he is under team control for two more seasons. He produced at least twice as much bWAR as any Twins pitcher in 2021. In a rebound year for Minnesota, I can see him being the difference-maker for a team that wants to avoid a rebuilding process. Twins Daily’s Nash Walker wrote an in-depth article discussing Montas as a trade target, but not only him. He also wrote about Chris Bassitt and Luis Castillo.

Since 2022 is likely not a year the Twins will be competing for a World Series, they should be looking for a proven veteran that can eat up innings and provide them with stability instead of an impact starter. In this scenario, two names come to mind, both of which are former Twins.

Jake Odorizzi’s time with Minnesota didn’t end up well. In the COVID-shortened 2020 season, he struggled with injuries and missed the first portion of the season. He made only four starts that year and had an awful 6.59 ERA. He signed with the Astros for the 2021 season, and his beginning with the Houston organization was also rough, but he would eventually pick up. After struggling in his first six starts, he posted a 3.74 ERA in the final 18 starts of the season.

Those numbers could indicate that he might be back on track and ready to be a reliable contributor once again. Trading for him makes sense, as you can potentially bring back a former All-Star who is still only 31 and is very likely to provide you with 150 innings, if healthy.

Michael Pineda is another option I like, but many Twins fans are quick to dismiss. His time with Minnesota was stained by so much time he missed due to injuries and the suspension, but that doesn’t change the fact that he delivered some very solid innings. In 21 starts in 2021, he pitched the second-most innings for the year (106 1/3 innings) and posted a very decent 3.72 ERA.

Odorizzi and Pineda aren’t aces you can rely on for years to come, but either of them (or both) could help the Twins not to suck in 2022. The most important aspect of this season is to take pressure off the development of top pitching prospects who have already reached the major league level, like Ober and Ryan. If prospects like Josh Winder and Jordan Balazovic make the leap to the majors this year, they could also benefit from that.

Plus, a rotation like this could be considered much better than the one they had last year, so they could have a much better outcome than the one they had in 2021.

What do you think? How would you fill those two rotation gaps differently? Share your thoughts in the comment section!

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[jorgenswest]

It would take something like Martin and Woods-Richardson  to land Montas but I would do it. It may seem like the Twins have no direction in trading the prospects they received for Berrios for a starter. The net result though is an additional year of control at the cost of two months of Berrios on a team going nowhere,

The rest of the four don’t impress me as pitchers I want in the top three of a playoff rotation so if a playoff rotation is the goal I would suggest we are quite a ways from fixing it. 

[Juza]

I really like the idea of adding Odo back to the mix. He should be a pretty cheap trade candidate and potential trade candidate at the deadline if the Twins aren't in contention or the prospects are better and ready. Montas would be great but I wish the Twins could have figured out a deal with Berrios. The prospects to get Montas are likely the equivalent that we just got for Berrios. 

[Dman]

I just don't see Montas as a real option.  You would have to trade the equivalent of SWR and Martin and possibly more to get a guy for two years since the Twins won't be able to extend him.  Given the fact you are relying on two pitchers in Ober and Ryan who may or may not pan out for a full season and Bundy or Dobank who we are "hoping" will bounce back plus maybe a lack luster Odo or Pineda signing and you have to be an incredible optimist to see that all coming together and working out well. At least well enough to make some noise in the playoffs because if you are giving up high value assets that should be the goal not just 500 baseball.

I think we have talked about this before but there are just too many unknowns this year especially on the pitching side but even some on the position player side to really go all in on a trade for someone IMO.  When you have a more established team that is when you push the chips into the middle for a player.  When you just need a guy or two to push you over the top ahead of the top level competition then sure make those deals but right now the way things stand with the Twins I don't see them in that position and therefor don't see it happening.

I can see them trading for Odo or picking up Pineda.  Veteran guys to fill in and make some sense especially if there is not going to be spring training.  I do think their best course of action for better or worse is to find out what they have for young pitching.  Gain some idea of what their young pitchers are capable of and re-asses from there.  They need to know they have a solid staff before just throwing assets away.

[Doctor Gast]

I agree with you Thiéres it wouldn't take much to fill our holes this season. It would've taken much less last year but they punted with Shoemaker and Happ. There were motivated sellers, PIT offered Musgrove to us but SD plundered him away, because this FO failed to counter offer. We could've even picked Odorizzi up comparitively the same price  as the soft tossing lefty. I disagree that there was anything good about signing Happ & Shoemaker. I advocated before the season started, a large strong long relief corp where many of our AAAA pitchers would have been exposed earlier to MLB and the burden of the rotation and short been lightened, resulting in many more wins.

This off-season, Montas is my 1st choice also (and extend him if possible) if they'll take Arraez and a prospect. HOU is motivated to trade Odorizzi, it could happen w/ a low valued player (Rooker) plus some $ received in return. We desperately need veteran experience that some one like Odo could provide. Trades can be made w/ minimium loss and maximium return. I'm even advocating more strongly for a larger long relief corp because our rotation could be comprised of mainly openers.

We still have a very powerful line up, don't give up on the Twins. It wouldn't take much to fill our holes, they could afford even going after Story. Lets makes some serious moves and not punt again.

 

[Jacksson]

The key with ANY deal with Oakland is to "help" them out in their stated goal with lowering their payroll cost.  Doing this and taking on payroll from Oakland will LOWER the prospect cost to Minnesota.  That means taking on 3-4 Oakland players and viewing the player salaries that are being taken on as sunk costs that are associated with acquiring the player(s) that the Twins REALLY want.   With that in mind, what do the A's need now AND what will they be needing down the road after some projected activity?   Forecasted to be available due to the desire to shrink the payroll are: Chris Bassit, Sean Maneaa, Frankie Montas, 3B Matt Chapman, 1B Matt Olson, SS Elvis Andrus, OF Stephen Piscotty, OF Ramon Laureano, Util Tony Kemp.  In addition to their stated underwhelming catching corps, the A's stand to need replacements for any of the referenced players that end up being moved.   What do the Twins need = Starting Pitching, Shortstop, RH Hitting Outfielder (to platoon with Kepler) and a Left Fielder.  What do the Twins have that can be dealt?  1B/DH Miguel Sano, INF Luis Arraez, Trevor Larnach, Brent Rooker, OF Jake Cave, 3B Josh Donaldson,  C Mitch Garver/Ryan Jeffers/Ben Rortvedt.

So what would the A's want from the Twins to "give up"  P Frankie Montas IF the Twins also TOOK SS Elvis Andrus, AND OF Stephen Piscotty?  If those discussions began with Sano & Arraez, that would provide the A's with ready replacements for Chapman & Olson. 

 

[baul0010]

During free agency it only would have taken $'s.  Money it seems like we have unspent.  We should be seeing prospects coming up starting by mid season.  We might as well ride it out now and see if this next wave has what it takes.  

[ashbury]

Filling out the rotation to have exactly 5 starters in no way fixes anything for a long season.  We are in a world of hurt.

[glunn]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

Filling out the rotation to have exactly 5 starters in no way fixes anything for a long season.  We are in a world of hurt.

I have some hope that two or three of the prospects might provide pleasant surprises.  I also like Montas a lot.

[DocBauer]

Heavy agreement with Dman as well as Jacksson on most points.

I'm not entirely sure a trade for Montas, or any of their available 3, is as big as projected here as the A's are VERY mindful of their payroll...and cutting it...while being mindful of young, inexpensive talent to develop for the future. By their previous MO they may be very pleased to pick up a Gipson-Long arm, possibly pushing for Varland, and might be interested in a power bat such as Wallner, who SO too much but will also take BB. And while I'd hate to see him go, Arraez could be a perfect money-ball addition to their team. If it's a deal more like that I could be in. 

But it makes no sense to trade Berrios...despite his 7yr deal that the Twins didn't feel like doing...and then turn around and basically trade that same value away for a 2yr controlled pitcher, even one as good as Montas. It doesn't speak to sustainability to acquire and then immediately trade those kinds of assets for 2yrs unless they would feel confident in a re-sign, OR, have so much faith in their numbers and potential of those numbers, that potentially losing Montas in 2yrs wouldn't hurt.

The one thing I DO KNOW about the FO is that it's virtually impossible to predict what they are going to do. I doubt any of us ever saw the Pineda signing happening, or the trades for Odorizzi or Maeda.

So rumor has it the Twins were working on trades before the lockout. I can see that. But I see more of a "surprise" trade that we've seen before, or a more predictable trade like Oddo back from Houston. I just don't think Odorizzi "fits" with the Astros and I think both parties want to move on. I think he could come cheaply. He was a good fit while with the Twins, is solid, only 31yr old, and frankly, I hadn't realized he looked like his old self after his poor start. Supposedly, he's their 6th SP, and a possible BP piece, for something like $8M. Again, it doesn't feel like he "fits" with Houston.

Next, while not exciting save Rodon, there are a handful of FA arms that are experienced, not expensive, who could offer stability, leadership, and potentially eat some innings. Pineda is the obvious possibility there. Tyler Anderson and Kikuchi are a couple possibilities. To be clear, there is nothing exciting about these options. But there is potential for a solid floor to stabilize the rotation for the young arms that will develop and audition throughout 2022. 

Then you  toss in Bundy, who I'm not exactly excited about. BUT, he teased with Baltimore and had a couple solid years with them. Speculation was, if he was with a better team, he might be a quality middle rotation piece. He was great in 2020, though I wouldn't dare to believe that was his REAL self. But various offerings on his ability...here at TD and other sites...speculate he may be a combination of his 2020 and solid Orioles days to still be a solid mid-rotation SP. Hello Wes Johnson!

With a lineup that has a nice mix of veterans and youth, and quality offensive potential, mixed with HOPEFULLY a quality pen that has depth, there would be opportunity for the Twins to be "competitive" this year with a "solid" rotation.

What does that mean? "Competitive"?

Unfortunately, it probably holds no hope to surprise and go deep in the playoffs. Hell, the rotation alone could scream 70-75 wins. HOWEVER...and this is the key, and I'm not just blowing "optimist" smoke at anyone...a quality roster with a collection of stable, veteran arms can help keep the Twins in games along with continued development of Ober and Ryan. What if we see the 2019 and first 3/4 2020 version of Dobnak return? Early, mid-season or even late season pushes from Winder, Duran, Balazovic, Strotman, Sands, and maybe even a sky rocketing Canterino could not only help pave the way for 2023 and beyond, but could provide lifts to the rotation enough for 80-85 wins. Maybe they get a couple more and actually sneak in to a WC? Remote, but possible. To me, THAT'S a COMPETITIVE team, not sucking, and building excitement and expectations and hope going forward.

They are going to need IP. Period! But this lineup, once someone of ANY quality is placed at SS, has real potential. If the pen comes through...and I think one more quality, experienced arm is needed...the rotation needs ANY veterans on hand to just be solid, and let the young arms gain experience and roll through them as needed to gain experience and provide IP.

It's time to let the prospects get their feet wet and grow, or continue to grow in some cases. It could  be a fun and interesting year to follow. And bad crap could happen, of course. But I'm actually excited for 2022 with an 80-85 win team for the future. And that's my hope for now. Mostly keep what you have but make tweaks, build for 2023 and beyond, and right the ship.

Of course, the FO could stun us all with a couple surprise moves and everything I just wrote would be moot.

 

 

[LastOnePicked]

We had the opportunity to sign Odorizzi before, and fairly affordably, and we passed. Why would we lose prospect capital on an even older version of him now? 

When the FO opted not to make a splash (or even a drip) in a pitching-rich free agent pool, it pretty much signaled the white flag for 2022. Let's not make this situation worse by losing some potentially strong prospects that we'll need when the team is on firmer footing in 2023-24. Hopefully the Luis Gil lesson doesn't have to be re-learned.

But sure, sign Pineda to eat some innings and let's all enjoy watching some prospects develop in an otherwise dismal year for Twins baseball.

[Rosterman]

The Twins need innings. Can they BUY or TRADE for two guys who can give them close to 200 over 35 starts? Then we have to be happy.

They can sign Pineda or trade for Odorizzi. Only rasoning would be that if the Twins tanked, they would be tradable. Remember, no one called when Pineda as available in 2021. But they we need roster spots, and who do they temporarily push back to St. Paul...Ryan, Ober?

Ryan and Ober will make me happy if they reach 150 innings. Jax could pitch more if we put him in the rotation. But pretty much anyne else (Thorpe, Strotman, Sands, Winder) would be hard=-pressed to do 100+ innings. That's the key, how the Twins balance the lightrail between Saints-land and Target Field.

And we still have a team that if they wish to wn needs a real closer. Could use an upgrade at shortstop. Tell us who is playing left field. Also, who is on first or playing designated hitter.

Can they find space for Arraez and Miranda. If so, where?

They have two roster spots. Who comes off in a trade. How much fluff do they still actually have (okay, Enlow and Madea go on the long-term DL once the season starts).

 

Two big starters added to the top would be a plus. Considering the next three would be tag-teaming in 2022 with another 2-3 guys.

 

 

[Nashvilletwin]

1. I love the Twins - just want to say that upfront.

2. The Twins are not likely trading any top prospects for starting pitching this offseason. Just don’t see it - the FO wants to see what it has.

3. Our rotation is in a world of hurt. Lots of young guys - no real proven reliables. Some things around the edges (i.e. sign Big Mike) might get done, but this is not the year we go all in. 

4. Don’t fret - we have three things working on our favor. A. We have a great core of starters and relievers on the way. B. Sadly, this likely is going to be a short season - so we won’t need as many innings. C. Our pen should be solid. Oh, and Maeda - who is reliable -  should be back in 2023. 

5. So, let’s be patient, see how 2022 rolls out, and enjoy following our young developing talent. The FO is positioning this team - in terms of player development and contracts/cash so that 2023 and beyond could be something special. 

[MGM4706]

You people have GOT to raise your standards!! If you think Odo is part of a solution we are in BIG trouble!!

And the FACT is any team without an Ace cannot be taken seriously and that's where we are. 

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

Since a Montas deal is mentioned here: The more I think about the Twins' possible moves for their starting rotation, the more convinced I am that the best place they and the Athletics match up, and the kind of deal they should make, is a deal for a starter with one year of team control. (Chris Bassitt or Sean Manaea, if we're looking at the A's.)

This is for several reasons:
- Teams across the league value years of control. We see that not entirely across the board, but consistently in trades across the league. A soon-expiring contract versus multiple years of control has a real effect on the trade return for even a good player.
I've heard speculation that the Twins are specifically averse to acquiring players with only a year of team control, but even if they are, they're hardly unique in that valuation. A team trading with them also will expect that players with less control will cost less in return.

- When Falvey and Levine say the Twins aren't rebuilding, I believe them, and good for them for trying that course. However, it's not hard to see this as a re-tooling and transitional time for the organization, with a bad 2021 season putting their immediate contention into doubt, several of the last homegrown core players either having left in the last year (Berríos, Rosario) or potentially leaving within the next (Sanó, Kepler), and the next wave of top prospects mostly in the high minors.

- If they're going to invest in a pitcher in trade, I'm sure they'd like to get someone they could rely on for a few years, but the Twins' biggest need for pitching is right now. They have Maeda coming back next year (possibly sooner, but closer to full strength next year) and a handful of prospects with decent chances to claim starting spots a year from now. It doesn't take super-wishful thinking that they'll strike gold with all their prospects, just taking the odds that at least one of Duran, Winder, Balazovic, or Canterino will be ready for starting job within a year.

With all that in mind, it really just makes sense* to focus on pitchers who'd fill a big need right now while requiring much less top talent to acquire, and thus leaving that top talent to keep retooling (not rebuilding!) with.

I don't imagine it would take nearly the equivalent of the Berríos package to land the likes of Bassitt or Manaea. And if the alternatives are pitchers with 2 years of control (Montas, Gray, Castillo etc.) they might try to sell a 1-year acquisition on extending or re-signing with the team just as well as a 2-year acquisition.

 

___
* (to me, a person who never has run a baseball team and never will)

[h2oface]

Not far from fixing?

Get rid of the best you have, and not far?

Dream on..........

[Jacksson]

The ONLY winning a Pohlad owned business is concerned with is at the cash register.  In Baseball, winning the World Series is just WAY too expensive.  Better to nibble around the edge of success with a restrained payroll and keep the turnstyles moving, the concessions selling, and the merchandise moving.  Just the most recent in a string of businesses that the Pohlad family reaped profits off of while "serving" their community with: bus service, banking, and beverages.  The family has now moved into: commercial real estate, development financing, senior housing, movie making,, automation and the vehicle business.  All their endevors have one, single common thread = make a buck off the public.  Carl taught his kids well.  I can't help but recall the business advice once given to Barney Rubble by none other than Fred Flintstone. "Barney, you're in the business army now; your only friend's a buck and the more bucks you've got, the more friends you've got."

AND the Pohlad Family has MANY, MANY of those kind of FRIENDS !!

[Linus]

The problem with the premise of this article is that you are banking on a series of best possible outcomes. It’s just not likely to happen. At this point I hope the Twins don’t double down and trade a bunch of prospects for pitching they could have with money. I would be willing to trade Arreaz and Garver. 

[miracleb]

Agree with Baul.......we could have spent money to get a guy like Montas in free agency.....and we didn't.  Now we want to give up real prospects (but lesser money) to get a guy like Montas?  That doesn't make sense for a team building for the future.  Montas might make sense for a team who just wants to get to 500 this up coming season.  I guess it depends on what you are looking to accomplish.  Getting to a 500 record and saving your job might make sense for the front office.....but I would guess it doesn make sense for the group that is reading this right now.

[TheLeviathan]

We appear to have different definitions of the word "fix".

[jorgenswest]

Montas makes sense to me because of the 2023 control. Montas, Maeda and a free agent next year or even Rodon this year feels like a staff that you can bring into a playoff series and contend. They need a free agent and a trade acquisition to fill those top two spots. Maeda and two from the young pitchers rounds out that staff.

[beckmt]

15 hours ago, Jacksson said:

The key with ANY deal with Oakland is to "help" them out in their stated goal with lowering their payroll cost.  Doing this and taking on payroll from Oakland will LOWER the prospect cost to Minnesota.  That means taking on 3-4 Oakland players and viewing the player salaries that are being taken on as sunk costs that are associated with acquiring the player(s) that the Twins REALLY want.   With that in mind, what do the A's need now AND what will they be needing down the road after some projected activity?   Forecasted to be available due to the desire to shrink the payroll are: Chris Bassit, Sean Maneaa, Frankie Montas, 3B Matt Chapman, 1B Matt Olson, SS Elvis Andrus, OF Stephen Piscotty, OF Ramon Laureano, Util Tony Kemp.  In addition to their stated underwhelming catching corps, the A's stand to need replacements for any of the referenced players that end up being moved.   What do the Twins need = Starting Pitching, Shortstop, RH Hitting Outfielder (to platoon with Kepler) and a Left Fielder.  What do the Twins have that can be dealt?  1B/DH Miguel Sano, INF Luis Arraez, Trevor Larnach, Brent Rooker, OF Jake Cave, 3B Josh Donaldson,  C Mitch Garver/Ryan Jeffers/Ben Rortvedt.

So what would the A's want from the Twins to "give up"  P Frankie Montas IF the Twins also TOOK SS Elvis Andrus, AND OF Stephen Piscotty?  If those discussions began with Sano & Arraez, that would provide the A's with ready replacements for Chapman & Olson. 

 

I could see the A's taking Arraez as he is cheap.  They are looking for major league cheap assets and close to major league prospects.  I doubt they would just add Piscotty and Andrus to the deal just to cheapen the return.  Andrus could be gotten for not a lot (he has little value) and could be worse than Simmons.  Don't know how long his deal runs, but is a thought is you are looking for a one year stopgap.  

I am more in favor of seeing what we have this year and spending money next year to fill the holes.

[Whitey333]

Twins are in a world of hurt if this is a "fix".  The Twins live on pipe dreams, prospects, has been, and what if players for years.  And year after year most fans fall for it and accept it.  Our beloved owner was one of the owners that unanimously decided to turn their back on their dwindling fan base and initiate a work stoppage!  Why do we support such nonsense in the first place?

[lukeduke1980]

Cleveland's model is what is being followed here.  They didn't ever add mid rotation starters.  If any are brought on it will be another Happ contract because the stable isn't ready yet

[mikelink45]

So the premise is that we take what we got for Berrios (close - not exact) who we traded because he had only two years of control and trade them to Oakland for a pitcher who has only two years of control?  That we go backwards and sign Odorizzi (who Houston did not trust to start in the playoffs) and Pineda which would be a continuation not a backwards signing.  No thanks.  

I have no reason to believe that Ober and Ryan will have the same success in 2022 or that Bundy can return to his partial season level.  Just start the merry-go-round and lets see what the arms we have can deliver.

[tony&rodney]

Keith Law has some expertise as a talent evaluator and is pretty widely respected. Of course he isn't perfect either. He has stated that the Twins pitching prospects as a whole are not above the median across baseball and it is accepted as an evaluation (mol) that there isn't any TOR prospects at this time in the Twins system. Of course, things can change, but the rotation is in disarray at this time. Baltimore and others have not had much luck throwing out the kids. Cleveland brings a couple of prospects up each year and their staff works them in as possible. Unless folks want 100 loss seasons or are just hoping a few of our guys become Goodens suddenly, the front office will need to address the starting pitching. Montas may be too dear in cost (I don't have any idea), but Bassitt, Manaea and others can be added. Rodon is still available, although extremely unlikely. Adding Cabrera and/or Meyer somehow, from Miami, would raise the potential talent level as well. Are they interested in Arraez or Kepler plus a Jeffers? Something will have to give because a Bundy, Dobnak, Thorpe/Smeltzer, Ober, and Ryan rotation plus mixing in some guys along the way is too radical to consider in conjunction with a lineup that seems ready to win as opposed to just experimentation. The Twins are sitting on established players such as: Garver, Sano, Polanco, Arraez,  Donaldson, Buxton, and Kepler. These guys don't fit a team that wants to see what the prospects can learn in 2022. A minimum of two established starting pitchers are required.

[GNess]

3 hours ago, lukeduke1980 said:

Cleveland's model is what is being followed here.  They didn't ever add mid rotation starters.  If any are brought on it will be another Happ contract because the stable isn't ready yet

I agree generally, but the Twins don't have to do it exactly like Cleveland. Since it appears young, controllable SP is the key component why not target those types - such as the Marlins have? The more quality young arms the better. The Twins do have some assets (Arraez,, Kepler, Jeffers, Sano, Garver, Larnach etc.) that might bring such a return.

[Jacksson]

5 hours ago, beckmt said:

I could see the A's taking Arraez as he is cheap.  They are looking for major league cheap assets and close to major league prospects.  I doubt they would just add Piscotty and Andrus to the deal just to cheapen the return.  Andrus could be gotten for not a lot (he has little value) and could be worse than Simmons.  Don't know how long his deal runs, but is a thought is you are looking for a one year stopgap.  

I am more in favor of seeing what we have this year and spending money next year to fill the holes.

Twins want Montas because of the 2023 control.  That is why the sweetener of taking Andrus and Piscotty is offered.  Andrus has a complicated contract.  He costs 14M with the Rangers picking up 7.25 of that.  The 2023 team option for 15M becomes a player option if Andrus gets 550 PA in 2022 or 1100 PA in 2021 & 2022.  BUT if the plan is to just bide time with Andrus for 2022  at a net cost of 6.75M UNTIL Lewis/Martin/Miranda is ready and then release him prior to reaching the PA threshold of converting the team option into a player option, then the Twins would be off the hook and free of any financial obligation to Andrus for 2023.  Piscotty will cost 7.25M for 2022 PLUS a 1M buyout of his 15M option for 2023. So initially, the A's save  salaries of Montas, Andrus and Piscotty =  5M+6.75M+8..25M a cool 20M in payroll savings for 2022.  A's would prefer to off load Maneaa or Bassitt as they are free agents after 2022 and  will command 10M and 9M via arbitration.   If it is a make or break condition, Twins could always agree to take one of the two ( Bassitt, if he liked it here may just be open to sign an extension, while Maneaa is a Boras client and would not).  Another possible sweetener would be to take on Ramon Laureano who is projected to cost the A's 2+M via arbitration in 2022 and is coming off a 2021 PED suspension BUT would provide outfield depth at all 3 positions.  The door is always open for discussion & negociation.

[rv78]

Getting Montas is a fantasy unless they package a top prospect with a guy like Arraez and then I start to think it is an overpay. Odo and Pineda are more likely. 

[bean5302]

The rotation is a long, long way from fixed. 

1. If we sign Rodon.
2. If Winder performs.
3. If Balazovic performs.
4. If Ober doesn't have a sophomore slump.
5. If Ryan doesn't have a sophomore slump.
6. If Bundy is able to hold down his spot in the rotation until either Balazovic or Winder is ready.

There are 5 ifs in the rotation right now. They're all ifs. I think some are a high probability, but the rotation was horrible last year and the 2 best pitchers aren't going to be pitching for the Twins this year. The one signing the Twins made was a guy who signed on a contract so small, many teams would happily cut him before the end of Spring Training.

I'm optimistic about the rotation this year, but I'm also prepared for it to potentially come apart.